Sox sign Gordon Beckham, designate Viciedo for Assignment

[Rowand44]

It's easy to disagree with PECOTA Sox projections - the sox beat them almost every year, sometimes by double digits. On average the sox beat the projection by 7 wins per season, putting us at 85, which is great, but just short of the playoffs unless everything hits our way on the luck front.

So what does Detroit usually beat their's by? Lets put this into perspective.

[Dick Allen]

It's easy to disagree with PECOTA Sox projections - the sox beat them almost every year, sometimes by double digits. On average the sox beat the projection by 7 wins per season, putting us at 85, which is great, but just short of the playoffs unless everything hits our way on the luck front.

If they beat them by 7 games and everyone else just matches theirs, the Sox win the division by 3 games. The Royals were projected to win 79 games in 2014.

 

Projections are projections. They are fun to argue about, but in the end, mean nothing.

[Reddy]

If they beat them by 7 games and everyone else just matches theirs, the Sox win the division by 3 games. The Royals were projected to win 79 games in 2014.

 

Projections are projections. They are fun to argue about, but in the end, mean nothing.

They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does.

 

The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that.

[LDF]

They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does.

 

The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that.

 

let me ask this question, why do you think that has happen. luck?? is the sox doing something better than the rest of the league. i just find that stat as very promising but unnerving, odd would appear to eventually catch up.

[southsider2k5]

They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does.

 

The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that.

 

The problem is that the projections are neutral, while baseball is not. Luck happens. Some teams will have things go mostly right, while others will have things go mostly wrong. There will be at least one team in the ALC with 90 wins, and at least one with 90 losses. The prediction systems don't really account for stuff like that.

 

[Dick Allen]

They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does.

 

The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that.

2014 PECOTA projection:

Boston 89-73

Baltimore 75-87

 

The White Sox and Orioles were projected to win the same amount of games.

 

 

They mean didley.

[witesoxfan]

We seemingly do this every year, but projections don't mean nothing. They establish a baseline by which we can try and determine how good teams are. Taking them at their exact word and saying that anything over 79 wins is "overachieving" shouldn't be done either.

 

A projection of 79 wins suggests that the Sox have holes around the team, but that they should be an OK team.

[Dick Allen]

We seemingly do this every year, but projections don't mean nothing. They establish a baseline by which we can try and determine how good teams are. Taking them at their exact word and saying that anything over 79 wins is "overachieving" shouldn't be done either.

 

A projection of 79 wins suggests that the Sox have holes around the team, but that they should be an OK team.

Baltimore outperformed their projection by 21 games. Boston underperformed theirs by 18. 39 games difference. They are fine conversion and argument starters, but the reality is, things happen. Players get hurt. Some suck, some are great who have no business being great. Projecting wins in January is silly.

[Reddy]

Baltimore outperformed their projection by 21 games. Boston underperformed theirs by 18. 39 games difference. They are fine conversion and argument starters, but the reality is, things happen. Players get hurt. Some suck, some are great who have no business being great. Projecting wins in January is silly.

sigh. you're wrong but you won't be convinced, so there's really no point arguing it. you're the Hawk of projection systems.

[Kyyle23]

sigh. you're wrong but you won't be convinced, so there's really no point arguing it. you're the Hawk of projection systems.

 

He isn't wrong, he is telling you to stop telling everyone else is wrong because HEY PECOTA SAID SO. And on top of that he is giving specific recent examples of how the projections aren't to be bought into wholesale. I get it, you don't believe the Sox have what it takes. But don't point to projections and say "see? I'm right!" As if they are facts

[Dick Allen]

sigh. you're wrong but you won't be convinced, so there's really no point arguing it. you're the Hawk of projection systems.

PECOTA has spoken. No reason to play the season. The FACTS are, even if you think these projections are beyond accurate, the Sox are 4 games out of the playoffs. You said they average about 7 wins above their projection. So, there should be no reason to think they aren't contenders at this point.

[Reddy]

He isn't wrong, he is telling you to stop telling everyone else is wrong because HEY PECOTA SAID SO. I get it, you don't believe the Sox have what it takes. But don't point to projections and say "see? I'm right!" As if they are facts

 

Everyone else is basing their opinion on their own personal gut feeling about the team as a biased fan. These projections are completely unbiased and considered the best in the business amongst the entire baseball industry.

 

How dare I subscribe to one over the other.

 

Also I'm very excited about the team. I'm happy it's a much better team, and I think Hahn's done an amazing job. That doesn't mean they're winning the WS.

[Kyyle23]

Everyone else is basing their opinion on their own personal gut feeling about the team as a biased fan. These projections are completely unbiased and considered the best in the business amongst the entire baseball industry.

 

How dare I subscribe to one over the other.

 

Also I'm very excited about the team. I'm happy it's a much better team, and I think Hahn's done an amazing job. That doesn't mean they're winning the WS.

 

You see, nobody here is telling you that you aren't allowed to make those projections. You, on the other hand, are scoffing at everyone for daring to not believe "the best in the business in the entire baseball industry".

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Everyone else is basing their opinion on their own personal gut feeling about the team as a biased fan. These projections are completely unbiased and considered the best in the business amongst the entire baseball industry.

 

How dare I subscribe to one over the other.

 

Also I'm very excited about the team. I'm happy it's a much better team, and I think Hahn's done an amazing job. That doesn't mean they're winning the WS.

 

That is completely not true. There had to be assumptions made in order to make the model. There are built in biases for sure.

[Eminor3rd]

Baltimore outperformed their projection by 21 games. Boston underperformed theirs by 18. 39 games difference. They are fine conversion and argument starters, but the reality is, things happen. Players get hurt. Some suck, some are great who have no business being great. Projecting wins in January is silly.

 

They only look silly if you get caught up in it being "right or wrong" depending on exact numbers. It's an extremely useful raw look at the total amount of talent on each team with respect to playing time (like how Boston has a 56 good OFers, but they aren't going to get full value form all of them because they can't all play at once) and statistical regression (like how Chris Sale isn't likely to pitch as well as last year, simply because guys aren't likely to throw Cy Young caliber seasons, even if they have the talent to do so), which are two things that are very hard for fans to account for mentally. The exact number is much less important than the order in which the teams fall, and the gap in the differences.

[Eminor3rd]

PECOTA has spoken. No reason to play the season. The FACTS are, even if you think these projections are beyond accurate, the Sox are 4 games out of the playoffs. You said they average about 7 wins above their projection. So, there should be no reason to think they aren't contenders at this point.

 

Again, missing the point completely.

[Dick Allen]

Again, missing the point completely.

Of course. Why don't we compare these "standings" with what Harold Reynolds picks the day before the season, with what the posters here pick when that thread pops up, and I would bet you anything, there isn't a significant difference in accuracy.

 

If you need PECOTA to come out to tell you what the talent level on each team is, that is very telling. It has been proven that teams significantly outperform and significantly underperform their projection.

[Eminor3rd]

Of course. Why don't we compare these "standings" with what Harold Reynolds picks the day before the season, with what the posters here pick when that thread pops up, and I would bet you anything, there isn't a significant difference in accuracy.

 

If you need PECOTA to come out to tell you what the talent level on each team is, that is very telling. It has been proven that teams significantly outperform and significantly underperform their projection.

 

Again, this is only an issue if you use the tool simply to predict exact win totals, which is pointless. This is another situation where the only people discussing how well projections do at picking exact outcomes are those who are already against them. Literally no one -- not even the creators of the systems -- think they're useful in that manner. These are mean projections, which means that they are simply the most likley INDIVIDUAL outcome, but the field is ALWAYS more likely. No one should be shocked by this and no one has ever claimed otherwise. I've always felt that these numbers would be more accessible if they were presented as a confidence intervals, but that doesn't really make them any more useful for what they help, it would just make it harder for people to misuse/misapply.

 

What they do is provide an objective frame of reference for us to consider. They are very good at this.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[ILMOU]

He isn't wrong, he is telling you to stop telling everyone else is wrong because HEY PECOTA SAID SO. And on top of that he is giving specific recent examples of how the projections aren't to be bought into wholesale. I get it, you don't believe the Sox have what it takes. But don't point to projections and say "see? I'm right!" As if they are facts

Thank you, K. Said it better than I could have. You as well, DA.

[Reddy]

That is completely not true. There had to be assumptions made in order to make the model. There are built in biases for sure.

my point is, they're not fans, biased towards one TEAM over another.

[Reddy]

Thank you, K. Said it better than I could have. You as well, DA.

 

 

This is just a Hawk vs. Sabermetrics situation. Older guys don't appreciate statistics saying their team isn't good as they "feel like" it is.

[southsider2k5]

my point is, they're not fans, biased towards one TEAM over another.

 

Depending on what sorts of franchises are out there, it could definitely be biased towards certain types of teams, meaning franchises that are run a certain way. The Sox seem to be one of those teams that usually gets under-predicted. If the bias were truly neutral, that should disappear over time, and not be reinforced.

[Reddy]

Depending on what sorts of franchises are out there, it could definitely be biased towards certain types of teams, meaning franchises that are run a certain way. The Sox seem to be one of those teams that usually gets under-predicted. If the bias were truly neutral, that should disappear over time, and not be reinforced.

PECOTA does it based on individual players past performance and creates all of those player projections FIRST, then creates the team projections by conglomerating the info. How teams are run don't factor into the results, which is why they can't account for us having the best pitching coach and training staff in the game.

[southsider2k5]

PECOTA does it based on individual players past performance and creates all of those player projections FIRST, then creates the team projections by conglomerating the info. How teams are run don't factor into the results, which is why they can't account for us having the best pitching coach and training staff in the game.

 

This is my point exactly. By not factoring in things like that, there are biases against certain franchises. If you aren't adjusting player performance for franchise input, you are missing out on key data points.

[Kyyle23]

This is just a Hawk vs. Sabermetrics situation. Older guys don't appreciate statistics saying their team isn't good as they "feel like" it is.

 

Not even close to that. I see PECOTA as a reference, a point of view, not a fact.