Sox sign Gordon Beckham, designate Viciedo for Assignment

[Eminor3rd]

What exactly is the purpose of the BP projections?

 

This stuff:

 

They only look silly if you get caught up in it being "right or wrong" depending on exact numbers. It's an extremely useful raw look at the total amount of talent on each team with respect to playing time (like how Boston has a 56 good OFers, but they aren't going to get full value form all of them because they can't all play at once) and statistical regression (like how Chris Sale isn't likely to pitch as well as last year, simply because guys aren't likely to throw Cy Young caliber seasons, even if they have the talent to do so), which are two things that are very hard for fans to account for mentally. The exact number is much less important than the order in which the teams fall, and the gap in the differences.

 

What they do is provide an objective frame of reference for us to consider. They are very good at this.

 

[Dick Allen]

This stuff:

i don't know what that has to do with projected wins in January.

[Reddy]

i don't know what that has to do with projected wins in January.

It's not about the exact number of wins, it's how each team stacks up against each other team. So yes, we're close with Detroit and Cleveland, but both are probably slightly better teams on paper. Of course, s*** happens, people get hurt, and players breakout. So things fluctuate. But the projections give a baseline.

[witesoxfan]

i don't know what that has to do with projected wins in January.

 

If you are going to be so adamant that projection systems are as useless and baseless as you claim they are, and that anybody can do this sort of thing and be similarly accurate, I am challenging you to create your own projection system that incorporates whatever data you want to come up with legitimate predictions and projections for the 2000 or so players they project, and then you can use those projections to help determine your predicted wins and losses.

 

In the meantime, quit pissing in everyone's cheerios.

[Dick Allen]

If you are going to be so adamant that projection systems are as useless and baseless as you claim they are, and that anybody can do this sort of thing and be similarly accurate, I am challenging you to create your own projection system that incorporates whatever data you want to come up with legitimate predictions and projections for the 2000 or so players they project, and then you can use those projections to help determine your predicted wins and losses.

 

In the meantime, quit pissing in everyone's cheerios.

Exactly what are they used for? Baseball is a game not a mathematical equation. Every player can have the exact same stats and teams could have a wide range of records. I actually read BP every year. My copy came yesterday.

 

I doubt anyone in the White Sox front office is losing sleep over these projections. I also would imagine if they did win 78 games, like they are projected from this system, Robin Ventura would be considered even a bigger idiot than he currently is considered.

 

LOL at accuracy. This system was off 39 games between the projected first and last place team in the AL East last season. They had the team that won 96 games finishing in last, and the team they projected to win 89 wins up in last.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dick Allen

[hogan873]

I attended the Will County Old Timer Baseball Association banquet last night, and Scott Fletcher was the guest speaker. Turns out his daughter is married to Gordon Beckham. He predicted that Gordon will have a great year with the Sox, of course.

[LDF]

I attended the Will County Old Timer Baseball Association banquet last night, and Scott Fletcher was the guest speaker. Turns out his daughter is married to Gordon Beckham. He predicted that Gordon will have a great year with the Sox, of course.

it looked as they been dating since he was in college... according to the internet. she is hot... but what a smile. that smile can lite up a room.

 

lucky guy.... many happy yrs to both

[Chicago White Sox]

I appreciate what projection systems attempt to do, but Dick Allen has a fair point on the accuracy of them. They work as a point of reference, but nobody should be putting too much stock into them.

 

Honest question, but what does Pecota project for Melky this year? I'm guessing he's being unfairly punished for the season he had a spinal tumor.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Chicago White Sox

[Eminor3rd]

i don't know what that has to do with projected wins in January.

 

Man I don't know how to boil it down any more.

[Dick Allen]

I appreciate what projection systems attempt to do, but Dick Allen has a fair point on the accuracy of them. They work as a point of reference, but nobody should be putting too much stock into them.

 

Honest question, but what does Pecota project for Melky this year? I'm guessing he's being unfairly punished for the season he had a spinal tumor.

I received my BP yesterday. Melky was supposed to be decent with about 12 homers, the other numbers pretty average. I don't have the book with me. They had Avi hitting 7, and Abreu 23. They also had Abreu driving in 74. They are normally very conservative with everyone. The write ups made Q seem like he was going to be a Cy Young contender, but he made the top ten in WAR depreciation. If all of that happens, I agree their 78 win projection will look good. But unless there are season ending injuries, I'm pretty certain Avi and Jose are going to blow by those numbers.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dick Allen

[ptatc]

Exactly what are they used for? Baseball is a game not a mathematical equation. Every player can have the exact same stats and teams could have a wide range of records. I actually read BP every year. My copy came yesterday.

 

I doubt anyone in the White Sox front office is losing sleep over these projections. I also would imagine if they did win 78 games, like they are projected from this system, Robin Ventura would be considered even a bigger idiot than he currently is considered.

 

LOL at accuracy. This system was off 39 games between the projected first and last place team in the AL East last season. They had the team that won 96 games finishing in last, and the team they projected to win 89 wins up in last.

Ohhh. You're in trouble now you old guy that doesn't like stats.

[caulfield12]

I received my BP yesterday. Melky was supposed to be decent with about 12 homers, the other numbers pretty average. I don't have the book with me. They had Avi hitting 7, and Abreu 23. They also had Abreu driving in 74. They are normally very conservative with everyone. The write ups made Q seem like he was going to be a Cy Young contender, but he made the top ten in WAR depreciation. If all of that happens, I agree their 78 win projection will look good. But unless there are season ending injuries, I'm pretty certain Avi and Jose are going to blow by those numbers.

 

That's one obvious flaw when most of the projection is based on last season...which for Garcia was injury-shortened.

 

I'm sure the over/under in Vegas would be around 14-15 homers.

Edited January 30, 2015 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Ohhh. You're in trouble now you old guy that doesn't like stats.

Here is how teams really fared compared to their 2014 projection:

Boston -18

Tampa -12

NYY +2

Tor +3

Balt +21

Det +2

Cleve +6

KC +10

Sox -2

Min -1

Oak correct

Ana +11

Tex -18

Sea +5

Hous +4

Wash +8

Atl -6

Phil -3

Mets +5

Miami +8

Stl +2

Cinci -7

Mil +2

Pit +10

Cubs +2

LAD -4

SF +1

SD -4

AZ -15

Colo -8

 

That is 11 teams who have a projection 8 games or more inaccurate. If you did a projection which said every team would finish 81-81, there would be 16 8 games or more off. So a little better than mindless. Still meaningless. I don't see anyone but BP getting paid for these projections. I like looking at projections just like anyone else. But I can't understand why people think they actually mean much. You can still look at rosters and see which teams should be better than others.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dick Allen

[LDF]

Ohhh. You're in trouble now you old guy that doesn't like stats.

 

ahh excuse me, i will brb, i need to load up on my geritol.

[LDF]

Here is how teams really fared compared to their 2014 projection:

Boston -18

Tampa -12

NYY +2

Tor +3

Balt +21

Det +2

Cleve +6

KC +10

Sox -2

Min -1

Oak correct

Ana +11

Tex -18

Sea +5

Hous +4

Wash +8

Atl -6

Phil -3

Mets +5

Miami +8

Stl +2

Cinci -7

Mil +2

Pit +10

Cubs +2

LAD -4

SF +1

SD -4

AZ -15

Colo -8

 

That is 12 teams who have a projection 8 games or more inaccurate. If you did a projection which said every team would finish 81-81, there would be 16 8 games or more off. So a little better than mindless. Still meaningless. I don't see anyone but BP getting paid for these projections. I like looking at projections just like anyone else. But I can't understand why people think they actually mean much. You can still look at rosters and see which teams should be better than others.

 

sox -2.... oh come now.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Ohhh. You're in trouble now you old guy that doesn't like stats.

 

Where are you people finding people making a case that baseball is a mathematical equation?

[southsider2k5]

Man I don't know how to boil it down any more.

 

Forget it, he's rolling.

[Dick Allen]

Forget it, he's rolling.

Great comment. Can you tell me the purpose of the PECOTA projections? Do you think when they came out Rick Hahn was tossing and turning thinking he spent a lot of JR's money and he has a team that isn't very good?

 

The good news is if these things show the true talent level like some claim, Robin Ventura is a far better manager than Joe Maddon. So the Cubs should really suck this year.

[southsider2k5]

Great comment. Can you tell me the purpose of the PECOTA projections? Do you think when they came out Rick Hahn was tossing and turning thinking he spent a lot of JR's money and he has a team that isn't very good?

 

The good news is if these things show the true talent level like some claim, Robin Ventura is a far better manager than Joe Maddon. So the Cubs should really suck this year.

 

Its the truth. The hyperbole alone shows that.

[hogan873]

Because I am a stat nerd (not just with baseball, but in all things), I'm starting to see how these probability stats are as useful as some think. I think, however, that a season as a whole is less about mathematical probabilities than individual plays or scenarios. Managers have to use those probabilities all of the time. Lefties vs. righties, defensive shifts, pinch hitters, defensive substitutions. That being said, you can see why some teams are built to take that stuff into consideration. So, does replacing Viciedo with Beckham make enough of a difference? I believe so, mainly because Viciedo didn't fit with Shuck (or whomever may fill that spot) and Bonifacio. Beckham at $2 million gives the Sox more flexibility when it come to those probabilities than Viciedo at $4 million (or whatever he would have gotten).

 

Plus, Beckham has better hair.

[witesoxfan]

Exactly what are they used for? Baseball is a game not a mathematical equation. Every player can have the exact same stats and teams could have a wide range of records. I actually read BP every year. My copy came yesterday.

 

I doubt anyone in the White Sox front office is losing sleep over these projections. I also would imagine if they did win 78 games, like they are projected from this system, Robin Ventura would be considered even a bigger idiot than he currently is considered.

 

LOL at accuracy. This system was off 39 games between the projected first and last place team in the AL East last season. They had the team that won 96 games finishing in last, and the team they projected to win 89 wins up in last.

 

A point of reference. That's it. Based on the information we have on hand, those are the projected win totals. It's January and we want to talk about something and using prior statistics to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a team or multiple teams is fun and interesting to do. It's not a secret that Avisail Garcia has yet to produce a full, good season yet and arguing otherwise is silly. I personally feel that he's going to have a nice year, but I'm an optimist and a homer, but I understand why projections don't figure him to breakout. It's not a secret that the Sox aren't great defensively either, and it's likely that will cost them a few games too. It's also damn near impossible to project relievers to have big years based on the volatility of the position. You know as well as anyone that a pitcher's overall numbers can be skewed by 5-6 games, which is incredibly hard to account for in a projection system as well.

 

The Sox also shouldn't be losing sleep over their projection. They've done a great job this offseason. I've said that you could see this team winning the division, especially when it appears the division will be weaker overall this year, but there are also a lot of scenarios where you can see them falling short.

 

You also continue to use the most egregious error between the Red Sox and Orioles, but the Red Sox projection was based on them having Lester, Lackey, and Peavy all year with Buchholz not pitching like dogs***. None of those things happened, and Peavy didn't pitch particularly well when he was with the Red Sox last year either. Meanwhile, the Orioles got really nice production out of Nelson Cruz (I'm not sure those projection systems figured him in at that point) and production from Steven Pearce out of nowhere. They had unexpected surprises that the projection system couldn't calculate. These things happen.

 

If Chris Sale pitches like a Cy Young candidate, Samardzija and Quintana both pitch really well, Garcia has a good year, Flowers and Gillaspie show, to some extent, that last year wasn't a fluke, and the rest of the guys do their jobs, you are talking about 8 wins of improvement off of their projections right there.

 

They aren't designed to be accurate down to a T. They are designed to take in depth looks at teams in a sort of philosophical manner.

 

Ohhh. You're in trouble now you old guy that doesn't like stats.

 

This really isn't necessary.

[Reddy]

Great comment. Can you tell me the purpose of the PECOTA projections? Do you think when they came out Rick Hahn was tossing and turning thinking he spent a lot of JR's money and he has a team that isn't very good?

 

The good news is if these things show the true talent level like some claim, Robin Ventura is a far better manager than Joe Maddon. So the Cubs should really suck this year.

 

I think at least three of us have already answered this question.

[Reddy]

A point of reference. That's it. Based on the information we have on hand, those are the projected win totals. It's January and we want to talk about something and using prior statistics to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a team or multiple teams is fun and interesting to do. It's not a secret that Avisail Garcia has yet to produce a full, good season yet and arguing otherwise is silly. I personally feel that he's going to have a nice year, but I'm an optimist and a homer, but I understand why projections don't figure him to breakout. It's not a secret that the Sox aren't great defensively either, and it's likely that will cost them a few games too. It's also damn near impossible to project relievers to have big years based on the volatility of the position. You know as well as anyone that a pitcher's overall numbers can be skewed by 5-6 games, which is incredibly hard to account for in a projection system as well.

 

The Sox also shouldn't be losing sleep over their projection. They've done a great job this offseason. I've said that you could see this team winning the division, especially when it appears the division will be weaker overall this year, but there are also a lot of scenarios where you can see them falling short.

 

You also continue to use the most egregious error between the Red Sox and Orioles, but the Red Sox projection was based on them having Lester, Lackey, and Peavy all year with Buchholz not pitching like dogs***. None of those things happened, and Peavy didn't pitch particularly well when he was with the Red Sox last year either. Meanwhile, the Orioles got really nice production out of Nelson Cruz (I'm not sure those projection systems figured him in at that point) and production from Steven Pearce out of nowhere. They had unexpected surprises that the projection system couldn't calculate. These things happen.

 

If Chris Sale pitches like a Cy Young candidate, Samardzija and Quintana both pitch really well, Garcia has a good year, Flowers and Gillaspie show, to some extent, that last year wasn't a fluke, and the rest of the guys do their jobs, you are talking about 8 wins of improvement off of their projections right there.

 

They aren't designed to be accurate down to a T. They are designed to take in depth looks at teams in a sort of philosophical manner.

 

 

 

This really isn't necessary.

 

*Slow clap*

[southsider2k5]

A point of reference. That's it. Based on the information we have on hand, those are the projected win totals. It's January and we want to talk about something and using prior statistics to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a team or multiple teams is fun and interesting to do.

 

 

In all seriousness, do people write nastygrams to their local meteorologist when the 5th day of the 5 day forecast isn't right? Do they call CNBC when the stock pickers are wrong?

 

PECOTA is like those. You take the information you have in hand, crunch the numbers, and make a educated prediction as to what will happen. Building anything on top of that is as futile as taking a long term weather forecast as gospel.

[Eminor3rd]

Here is how teams really fared compared to their 2014 projection:

Boston -18

Tampa -12

NYY +2

Tor +3

Balt +21

Det +2

Cleve +6

KC +10

Sox -2

Min -1

Oak correct

Ana +11

Tex -18

Sea +5

Hous +4

Wash +8

Atl -6

Phil -3

Mets +5

Miami +8

Stl +2

Cinci -7

Mil +2

Pit +10

Cubs +2

LAD -4

SF +1

SD -4

AZ -15

Colo -8

 

That is 11 teams who have a projection 8 games or more inaccurate. If you did a projection which said every team would finish 81-81, there would be 16 8 games or more off. So a little better than mindless. Still meaningless. I don't see anyone but BP getting paid for these projections. I like looking at projections just like anyone else. But I can't understand why people think they actually mean much. You can still look at rosters and see which teams should be better than others.

 

I cannot fathom why you're still hung up on this record-for-record stuff. I'm trying to tell you that isn't the point.

 

The record is a frame of reference that is based on projected player performance. It's a ROUGH total of what you'd expect to happen if every player acted exactly like they were a typical guy of their age and ability. It will NEVER work out exactly this way and no one has EVER said it will.

 

They are still useful because they stack teams up against one another on a mean-performance basis, which is a reasonable proxy for "true talent." This can be eye-opening for a lot of people, primarily because it provides an objective method for factoring playing time somewhat accurately (whereas fans only seem to look at the starting 9, assuming they'll all be healthy not doing a good job of factoring in how important bench and depth are), and because fans have a tendency to assume that players that have had good seasons will repeat those seasons, whereas players with bad seasons can improve, despite the fact the the good players regress downward just as much as the bad players regress upward.

 

For the 2015 White Sox, it illustrates that our talent drops off sharply from our stars, it illustrates just how bad John Danks and Hector Noesi really are despite the fact that we seem to feel comfortable with the former because his name still carries value and we can hang "innings eater" on him, and the latter because he appeared to improve when he came to us last year, even though he faded BIG time down the stretch. It also reminds us that we likely saw Chris Sale and Jose Quintana's ceilings last year, and that while those guys are still good, it isn't likely for them to perform at the same level again.

 

Once again, the actual number of win ISN'T the point -- the point is how the teams stack up against each other, and the utility is to encourage further analysis of the completeness of each team. Teams can project shockingly HIGH too -- like the 2015 Mariners. Why? Well when you look closely at them, you start to see how quickly having a decent player EVERYWHERE can add up. You also see how much of their success is pinned on the further development of James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, and so you can easily see what could go wrong with that team.

 

The way fans are wired misses some important things. It's not different than how our brains perceive everyday life. Our brains filter input that they haven't evolved to retain, but we KNOW some things are happening because we can measure them with instruments. Fans tend to overvalue stars versus solid players, for example. Fans tend to ignore depth, underestimate the risk of injury, and irrationally favor positive regression more than negative regression. Tools like these are like sensors that measure radiation -- they tell us about things that are happening that are bodies aren't able to reliably sense on our own.