Sox sign Gordon Beckham, designate Viciedo for Assignment

[Dick Allen]

I cannot fathom why you're still hung up on this record-for-record stuff. I'm trying to tell you that isn't the point.

 

The record is a frame of reference that is based on projected player performance. It's a ROUGH total of what you'd expect to happen if every player acted exactly like they were a typical guy of their age and ability. It will NEVER work out exactly this way and no one has EVER said it will.

 

They are still useful because they stack teams up against one another on a mean-performance basis, which is a reasonable proxy for "true talent." This can be eye-opening for a lot of people, primarily because it provides an objective method for factoring playing time somewhat accurately (whereas fans only seem to look at the starting 9, assuming they'll all be healthy not doing a good job of factoring in how important bench and depth are), and because fans have a tendency to assume that players that have had good seasons will repeat those seasons, whereas players with bad seasons can improve, despite the fact the the good players regress downward just as much as the bad players regress upward.

 

For the 2015 White Sox, it illustrates that our talent drops off sharply from our stars, it illustrates just how bad John Danks and Hector Noesi really are despite the fact that we seem to feel comfortable with the former because his name still carries value and we can hang "innings eater" on him, and the latter because he appeared to improve when he came to us last year, even though he faded BIG time down the stretch. It also reminds us that we likely saw Chris Sale and Jose Quintana's ceilings last year, and that while those guys are still good, it isn't likely for them to perform at the same level again.

 

Once again, the actual number of win ISN'T the point -- the point is how the teams stack up against each other, and the utility is to encourage further analysis of the completeness of each team. Teams can project shockingly HIGH too -- like the 2015 Mariners. Why? Well when you look closely at them, you start to see how quickly having a decent player EVERYWHERE can add up. You also see how much of their success is pinned on the further development of James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, and so you can easily see what could go wrong with that team.

 

The way fans are wired misses some important things. It's not different than how our brains perceive everyday life. Our brains filter input that they haven't evolved to retain, but we KNOW some things are happening because we can measure them with instruments. Fans tend to overvalue stars versus solid players, for example. Fans tend to ignore depth, underestimate the risk of injury, and irrationally favor positive regression more than negative regression. Tools like these are like sensors that measure radiation -- they tell us about things that are happening that are bodies aren't able to reliably sense on our own.

Quit talking down to me, or anyone else that doesn't take these things seriously so we obviously miss "important things." This isn't an important thing. It is a projection that has proven to be way off in the past. I am not a White Sox fanboy who just assumes they will win 150 games a season. I don't even like Samardzija. I think Duke is a waste of money. If this projection had them 25 games better than anyone else, I would still be saying you have to play the games. The most accurate thing at the end of the day isn't xFIP, or WAR or any other advanced number, it is the actual record at the end of the season.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Reddy]

I cannot fathom why you're still hung up on this record-for-record stuff. I'm trying to tell you that isn't the point.

 

The record is a frame of reference that is based on projected player performance. It's a ROUGH total of what you'd expect to happen if every player acted exactly like they were a typical guy of their age and ability. It will NEVER work out exactly this way and no one has EVER said it will.

 

They are still useful because they stack teams up against one another on a mean-performance basis, which is a reasonable proxy for "true talent." This can be eye-opening for a lot of people, primarily because it provides an objective method for factoring playing time somewhat accurately (whereas fans only seem to look at the starting 9, assuming they'll all be healthy not doing a good job of factoring in how important bench and depth are), and because fans have a tendency to assume that players that have had good seasons will repeat those seasons, whereas players with bad seasons can improve, despite the fact the the good players regress downward just as much as the bad players regress upward.

 

For the 2015 White Sox, it illustrates that our talent drops off sharply from our stars, it illustrates just how bad John Danks and Hector Noesi really are despite the fact that we seem to feel comfortable with the former because his name still carries value and we can hang "innings eater" on him, and the latter because he appeared to improve when he came to us last year, even though he faded BIG time down the stretch. It also reminds us that we likely saw Chris Sale and Jose Quintana's ceilings last year, and that while those guys are still good, it isn't likely for them to perform at the same level again.

 

Once again, the actual number of win ISN'T the point -- the point is how the teams stack up against each other, and the utility is to encourage further analysis of the completeness of each team. Teams can project shockingly HIGH too -- like the 2015 Mariners. Why? Well when you look closely at them, you start to see how quickly having a decent player EVERYWHERE can add up. You also see how much of their success is pinned on the further development of James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, and so you can easily see what could go wrong with that team.

 

The way fans are wired misses some important things. It's not different than how our brains perceive everyday life. Our brains filter input that they haven't evolved to retain, but we KNOW some things are happening because we can measure them with instruments. Fans tend to overvalue stars versus solid players, for example. Fans tend to ignore depth, underestimate the risk of injury, and irrationally favor positive regression more than negative regression. Tools like these are like sensors that measure radiation -- they tell us about things that are happening that are bodies aren't able to reliably sense on our own.

 

 

I was just typing this, got exasperated, and stopped. Thanks for doing it.

 

[Reddy]

Quit talking down to me, or anyone else that doesn't take these things seriously so we obviously miss "important things." This isn't an important thing. It is a projection that has proven to be way off in the past.

Lliterally this is because you don't understand what they're meant to do. But that's ok, because you also aren't trying to. I guess we're the ones talking to the chair in this scenario.

[shysocks]

GORDON BECKHAM IS TEARIN' THIS FAMILY APART.

[Reddy]

GORDON BECKHAM IS TEARIN' THIS FAMILY APART.

 

I don't wanna lose your love....

[Dick Allen]

Lliterally this is because you don't understand what they're meant to do. But that's ok, because you also aren't trying to. I guess we're the ones talking to the chair in this scenario.

So they are not really projecting records? If not, why did you post this earlier in the thread?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:11 PM)

 

It's easy to disagree with PECOTA Sox projections - the sox beat them almost every year, sometimes by double digits. On average the sox beat the projection by 7 wins per season, putting us at 85, which is great, but just short of the playoffs unless everything hits our way on the luck front

[Reddy]

So they are not really projecting records? If not, why did you post this earlier in the thread?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:11 PM)

 

It's easy to disagree with PECOTA Sox projections - the sox beat them almost every year, sometimes by double digits. On average the sox beat the projection by 7 wins per season, putting us at 85, which is great, but just short of the playoffs unless everything hits our way on the luck front

 

Because we beat their projection by an average of 7 wins per season? Which means that gives you a good baseline to start from before taking into account luck and other unexpected breakouts/collapses?

 

I feel like a broken record.

[Dick Allen]

Because we beat their projection by an average of 7 wins per season? Which means that gives you a good baseline to start from before taking into account luck and other unexpected breakouts/collapses?

 

I feel like a broken record.

If you take the number of inaccuracies and divide it by 30 teams, the average team's projection was off 6.7 in 2014.

 

You can give me as much hard time as you want for saying a projection means nothing, and for thinking this isn't some useful "tool". The fact is, when the games count, this projection, like any other, doesn't come into play.

[witesoxfan]

If you take the number of inaccuracies and divide it by 30 teams, the average team's projection was off 6.7 in 2014.

 

You can give me as much hard time as you want for saying a projection means nothing, and for thinking this isn't some useful "tool". The fact is, when the games count, this projection, like any other, doesn't come into play.

 

You're right. But the teams aren't playing now and I like talking about baseball and this gives me some food for thought until they do. At the end of the year, when the projections are inevitably off, we're going to sit back and say "what happened for Team A this year that they played [better/worse] than their projected standings? OH, [pitcher/hitter] played [better/worse] than their projections, but how did he get there?" and so on and so forth.

 

These projections give the baseline numbers and from there we continually ask WHY. My gut instinct says that the guys that make these projections would rather be wrong so we can not only continually improve the projection models but to also look into the beauty of the game itself where players, young and old, have great seasons out of nowhere and we try and decipher why they did.

 

If we took this to literally mean that this was going to happen - as if these were predictions, instead of projections - then I'd agree with your point that they're useless.

[southsider2k5]

If you take the number of inaccuracies and divide it by 30 teams, the average team's projection was off 6.7 in 2014.

 

You can give me as much hard time as you want for saying a projection means nothing, and for thinking this isn't some useful "tool". The fact is, when the games count, this projection, like any other, doesn't come into play.

 

So let's see your MLB predicts and we will see who is closer after the season.

[Dick Allen]

So let's see your MLB predicts and we will see who is closer after the season.

I will have them when the season starts. As I stated earlier, it is still January. Yet another reason to take these with a grain of salt. Besides, if I was more accurate, how would my projections be considered a useful "tool"?

 

 

[Reddy]

I will have them when the season starts. As I stated earlier, it is still January. Yet another reason to take these with a grain of salt. Besides, if I was more accurate, how would my projections be considered a useful "tool"?

it would be pure luck.

[witesoxfan]

I will have them when the season starts. As I stated earlier, it is still January. Yet another reason to take these with a grain of salt. Besides, if I was more accurate, how would my projections be considered a useful "tool"?

 

If your projections were significantly more accurate on a yearly basis, I would subscribe to Dick Allen Analytics and would start using dWAR as my go to number.

[Dick Allen]

If your projections were significantly more accurate on a yearly basis, I would subscribe to Dick Allen Analytics and would start using dWAR as my go to number.

But why? Projections are made for fun. At the end of the year, most will look like a fool, and if you didn't one year, chances are, you will the next.

 

It amazes me how serious some are over these things. It's a freaking projection. Not a tool. I feel sorry for anyone who bases their excitement of their team based on something like this.

[Eminor3rd]

Quit talking down to me, or anyone else that doesn't take these things seriously so we obviously miss "important things." This isn't an important thing. It is a projection that has proven to be way off in the past. I am not a White Sox fanboy who just assumes they will win 150 games a season. I don't even like Samardzija. I think Duke is a waste of money. If this projection had them 25 games better than anyone else, I would still be saying you have to play the games. The most accurate thing at the end of the day isn't xFIP, or WAR or any other advanced number, it is the actual record at the end of the season.

 

I'm not talking down to you -- I'm talking about "fans" and "human beings," both of which are groups of people I also belong to. I'm not exempting myself from these baises, I am part of them. We all are. That's why this is useful.

[Eminor3rd]

I was just typing this, got exasperated, and stopped. Thanks for doing it.

 

[Eminor3rd]

But why? Projections are made for fun. At the end of the year, most will look like a fool, and if you didn't one year, chances are, you will the next.

 

It amazes me how serious some are over these things. It's a freaking projection. Not a tool. I feel sorry for anyone who bases their excitement of their team based on something like this.

 

Fandom is also made for fun. Nothing about sports really MATTERS. But we all get a lot of enjoyment from following this team and sport closely, so we do. Projections feed discussion and discussion is why we're here. You don't have to care -- but if you don't, then just don't participate. Don't crap on everyone else for caring about stuff you don't give a s*** about.

[witesoxfan]

But why? Projections are made for fun. At the end of the year, most will look like a fool, and if you didn't one year, chances are, you will the next.

 

It amazes me how serious some are over these things. It's a freaking projection. Not a tool. I feel sorry for anyone who bases their excitement of their team based on something like this.

 

I'd subscribe because more information and more inputs are always better than less, especially if you can properly contextualize the information.

 

Also, I'm not basing my excitement for the White Sox on a 78 win projection. I'm basing my excitement on the White Sox because I think they are going to have a really good and fun team. On top of thinking Garcia is going to have a good year, I also think Micah Johnson is going to win the 2B job and be a 1.5-2 WAR player, I honestly do not mind Gordon Beckham being on the roster as long as he's not the starter (or if he is, hopefully it's because he's finally hitting well), I'm really excited for what should be a much improved bullpen, and I'm really hoping Rodon can come in and be a shot in the arm and great back of the rotation starter.

 

 

[LDF]

I'd subscribe because more information and more inputs are always better than less, especially if you can properly contextualize the information.

 

Also, I'm not basing my excitement for the White Sox on a 78 win projection. I'm basing my excitement on the White Sox because I think they are going to have a really good and fun team. On top of thinking Garcia is going to have a good year, I also think Micah Johnson is going to win the 2B job and be a 1.5-2 WAR player, I honestly do not mind Gordon Beckham being on the roster as long as he's not the starter (or if he is, hopefully it's because he's finally hitting well), I'm really excited for what should be a much improved bullpen, and I'm really hoping Rodon can come in and be a shot in the arm and great back of the rotation starter.

 

thank you ..... i was really starting to think that just maybe i have drank too much of the sox kool-aid. being 1 of the few who believed that the sox will do great this coming season. esp when most of the stat people doubt the really good opinion.

 

all of these stats are way over my head, but i do enjoy reading all the info.

 

thanks

[Dick Allen]

Fandom is also made for fun. Nothing about sports really MATTERS. But we all get a lot of enjoyment from following this team and sport closely, so we do. Projections feed discussion and discussion is why we're here. You don't have to care -- but if you don't, then just don't participate. Don't crap on everyone else for caring about stuff you don't give a s*** about.

Projections feed discussion. You just don't like opinion that is different than yours. Sorry. If you want to ignore the past and think this is a really accurate "tool" as you like to say which lets you know where every team is at, fine. I think you are wrong.

[Reddy]

Projections feed discussion. You just don't like opinion that is different than yours. Sorry. If you want to ignore the past and think this is a really accurate "tool" as you like to say which lets you know where every team is at, fine. I think you are wrong.

And... you... just don't like opinions that are different than yours... Sorry?

[witesoxfan]

Projections feed discussion. You just don't like opinion that is different than yours. Sorry. If you want to ignore the past and think this is a really accurate "tool" as you like to say which lets you know where every team is at, fine. I think you are wrong.

 

I don't go into the soccer thread and say "soccer is stupid, it's pointless and doesn't do anything." Because I really don't care to watch soccer and I don't think it's that entertaining, I stay out of the discussion. If you find projections are that useless and baseless, why are you discussing them still?

[Dick Allen]

And... you... just don't like opinions that are different than yours... Sorry?

I guess I just don't understand why anyone takes these projections very seriously. They were off an average of 6.7 games per team last season. IMO, that's not very accurate, and not something I would use to determine anything. Not that anything really needs to be determined at this point.. But by all means, consider them accurate. If there are Oriole fans that think like you do, they probably planned a long summer vacation last year and missed some great baseball.

[LDF]

And... you... just don't like opinions that are different than yours... Sorry?

 

neither do you, when you are proven wrong, you disappear. anywho, this does not involve you. no need to take pot shots. just to try to make you look good.

[Dick Allen]

I don't go into the soccer thread and say "soccer is stupid, it's pointless and doesn't do anything." Because I really don't care to watch soccer and I don't think it's that entertaining, I stay out of the discussion. If you find projections are that useless and baseless, why are you discussing them still?

You think my posts are stupid and pointless, yet you keep responding. If you read my first post in this thread, I would have been done. But for some reason, people kept responding.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dick Allen