Chisoxfn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On a sidenote, when I look at the models and what it spits out and go through the list of players, I basically come to the conclusion that on paper, they are wrong about the White Sox. I'd say on paper this is around an 85 win team (+ / 7 or so games). If all goes well, it can win a few more games and if it doesn't go well, they might drop into that 78 win category. I also think if this team makes the playoffs, their odds improve as they are pretty well built for the post-season, with what looks to be a strong back-end of the pen and a strong front-end of the rotation, surrounded by a pretty strong top of the order. Team defense is still the piece that makes you go yuck and may end up hindering the effectiveness of our top 3 in the rotation (as well as the back-end of the pen). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:25 PM) On a sidenote, when I look at the models and what it spits out and go through the list of players, I basically come to the conclusion that on paper, they are wrong about the White Sox. I'd say on paper this is around an 85 win team (+ / 7 or so games). If all goes well, it can win a few more games and if it doesn't go well, they might drop into that 78 win category. I also think if this team makes the playoffs, their odds improve as they are pretty well built for the post-season, with what looks to be a strong back-end of the pen and a strong front-end of the rotation, surrounded by a pretty strong top of the order. Team defense is still the piece that makes you go yuck and may end up hindering the effectiveness of our top 3 in the rotation (as well as the back-end of the pen). Ironically if you plugged in Rodon and Bonifacio instead of Sanchez and Noesi, you'd probably gain 2 wins in most projection systems. I too peg this team at about 85 wins. They can slide down to 80 with a big injury to star, but you can say that about most teams. Other than the Nationals, I don't see a "super team" out there this year that could sustain multiple long-term injuries to their top handful of guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 03:30 PM) Ironically if you plugged in Rodon and Bonifacio instead of Sanchez and Noesi, you'd probably gain 2 wins in most projection systems. I too peg this team at about 85 wins. They can slide down to 80 with a big injury to star, but you can say that about most teams. Other than the Nationals, I don't see a "super team" out there this year that could sustain multiple long-term injuries to their top handful of guys. I think the Dodgers would be OK too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 03:21 PM) Look at these r2 values: http://www.hardballtimes.com/evaluating-th...ection-systems/ ZIPS 0.330 Steamer 0.316 PECOTA 0.304 Oliver 0.307 Marcel 0.240 Average 0.318 Nothing to write home about, that's for sure. Basically (in my limited stats 101 knowledge) the r2 is simply "the variance explained in the model". You are correct in your interpretation of linear regression model. The take home message from this is that none of the models predict the actual number of wins very well. For example I do the linear regressions yearly on trying to predict how our graduate will perform on the license exam. I use admisson aswell as program variable and I can get a r2 vaule of around 75% Which pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:35 PM) You are correct in your interpretation of linear regression model. The take home message from this is that none of the models predict the actual number of wins very well. For example I do the linear regressions yearly on trying to predict how our graduate will perform on the license exam. I use admisson aswell as program variable and I can get a r2 vaule of around 75% Which pretty good. From my reading of Nassim Taleb part of this is just the inherent problems in using regression to model a complex, multivariate system -- MLB team win totals. Making a prediction of a player's stats is child's play compared to trying to model league win totals. Edited January 30, 2015 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 03:43 PM) From my reading of Nassim Taleb part of this is just the inherent problems in using regression to model a complex, multivariate system -- MLB team win totals. Making a prediction of a player's stats is child's play compared to trying to model league win totals. It is. There are many factors that need to go into the decision if a regression is even appropriate. You really need to determine the correlations first and really should throw out any variable with a low correlation, which sometimes leaves you with no data to run the regression. I'm not sure if they did this but with all of the values being so low, I would questions it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 02:53 PM) PECOTA seems heavily regressed to the mean, and while that might make statistical sense, what we are interested in as fans isn't the mean case, but the outlier case(s). What is interesting is the breakouts, both at the team level and player level. I haven't seen where PECOTA predicts outliers any better than ZIPS, or even the Diamond Mind sim predictions. Plus, the Sox have a lot of guys without a lot of data on them, or bad data due to injury. Garcia and Eaton (his bad 2013) fall into the injury related cases, and Jose Abreu is a 28 year old that had the 3rd highest wRC+ in baseball last year. Projections are going to put him down for a regression, but many scouts (and us fans) might be putting him down to actually IMPROVE, based on the fact that now he knows the grind of the season, many of the pitchers, how they plan to get him out, etc. I wouldn't guarantee it, but with Jose, there just isn't a lot of data for the projections to look at, in this instance scouting might be better informed. And of course playing time projections are often inaccurate. I'm not completely arguing to "throw out the projections, including PECOTA" but it's been proven time and time again that their predictive value is mixed, at best. Yea I'd rather the Sox were projected for 100 wins, but it's not the end of the world to see 78 either. I don't think Hahn or us fans think this is a 78 win team. I think it's closer to 85 but that's just my opinion. This is a great post. Well said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:25 PM) On a sidenote, when I look at the models and what it spits out and go through the list of players, I basically come to the conclusion that on paper, they are wrong about the White Sox. I'd say on paper this is around an 85 win team (+ / 7 or so games). If all goes well, it can win a few more games and if it doesn't go well, they might drop into that 78 win category. I also think if this team makes the playoffs, their odds improve as they are pretty well built for the post-season, with what looks to be a strong back-end of the pen and a strong front-end of the rotation, surrounded by a pretty strong top of the order. Team defense is still the piece that makes you go yuck and may end up hindering the effectiveness of our top 3 in the rotation (as well as the back-end of the pen). And I bet that most people at BP would agree with you. As do I. Edited January 31, 2015 by Reddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMOU Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 (edited) There are many ways to model events and probabilities, and PECOTA is regressing to the mean, excessively beyond belief. Does ANYone here, really believe, that the winner of the AL Central will have as few as 82 wins? Patently absurd. As far as I know, that's happened once in history, the '73 Mets. Didn't bother to look it up. I'm covering wagers, if anyone wants to bet the under on 82, hell, I'll even throw in the ties. Edited January 31, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 01:44 AM) There are many ways to model events and probabilities, and PECOTA is regressing to the mean, excessively beyond belief. Does ANYone here, really believe, that the winner of the AL Central will have as few as 82 wins? Patently absurd. As far as I know, that's happened once in history, the '73 Mets. Didn't bother to look it up. I'm covering wagers, if anyone wants to bet the under on 82, hell, I'll even throw in the ties. then as a person with NO knowledge with advance stats, they i am wondering why depend on then so much. shouldn't they be used as a reference. Edited January 31, 2015 by LDF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:15 PM) Their are inherent biases in the algorithm which will tend to favor certain teams, thus making where you fall, relatively biased based upon the team you have. Like what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Other than Robertson, BP is projecting the rest of the projected Opening Day bullpen to be worse than replacement level. They also don't even have a projection for Noesi saying if life was a meritocracy, the 172 innings he pitched in the major leagues last season would decrease 172 innings in 2015.the good news is John Danks 0.6 projected WAR would make him a projected 2 or 3 starter on the Royals if that were based on WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 12:00 PM) Other than Robertson, BP is projecting the rest of the projected Opening Day bullpen to be worse than replacement level. They also don't even have a projection for Noesi saying if life was a meritocracy, the 172 innings he pitched in the major leagues last season would decrease 172 innings in 2015.the good news is John Danks 0.6 projected WAR would make him a projected 2 or 3 starter on the Royals if that were based on WAR. Interesting, because online Danks is projected for a -.5 WAR, and Noesi does have a projection - albeit a terrible one. 5.31 ERA and a -1.1 WAR And this is exactly the point. Our pitching is far from perfect, our bullpen could go either way, and we have a couple offensive holes to go along with shoddy defense. We could win 90 if things go right. We could win 78 if they don't. So a low to mid 80s projection sounds about right to me if we're talking about the most likely scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 85 wins is where I'm at with this team. If we add another starter, according to Bruce Levine, depending on who it is I could see the win total increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 03:35 PM) 85 wins is where I'm at with this team. If we add another starter, according to Bruce Levine, depending on who it is I could see the win total increase. whats this now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Rome Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 what did Samara ever do? Are we forgetting that Danks pitched a shutout in arguably the most important game in White Sox history? thanks, douglas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 1, 2015 -> 07:59 AM) what did Samara ever do? Are we forgetting that Danks pitched a shutout in arguably the most important game in White Sox history? thanks, douglas C'mon man. That was 7 years ago now. Danks clearly is what he is and over paid at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 1, 2015 -> 07:59 AM) what did Samara ever do? Are we forgetting that Danks pitched a shutout in arguably the most important game in White Sox history? thanks, douglas Compare Danks last two seasons to Samara's last two seasons instead of recalling one game 7 years ago. Thanks, kyyle23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 1, 2015 -> 07:59 AM) what did Samara ever do? Are we forgetting that Danks pitched a shutout in arguably the most important game in White Sox history? thanks, douglas What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy Harold Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 1, 2015 -> 07:59 AM) what did Samara ever do? Are we forgetting that Danks pitched a shutout in arguably the most important game in White Sox history? thanks, douglas Did you forget about this game, I'm pretty sure this was more important. Or any game out of this series. Let's get real now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think he meant most important regular season game. However, even that might not even be true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 SSS had a good article about PECOTA this year, namely it does not think much of the AL Central. The good news is it sees us about 4 games behind the tigers, who are only pegged for 82-80. If you think the sox projection is bad, imagine being a royals fan, whom it pegged at 72-90. I thought seeing the central it may be inherently negative this year, but the Dodgers are at 97 wins, which is pretty high by pecota standards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 1, 2015 -> 10:21 AM) I think he meant most important regular season game. However, even that might not even be true. Crede heroics off Riske would definitely trump that one...maybe not at that time, but definitely after seeing how everything played out afterwards. Edited February 1, 2015 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Douglas Rome Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 most historic game ever, surpasses the '05 postseason, not even close. name any other single game that had more impact. Johhny Danks will always be remembered for his performance that nite. I think he still has it in him and he will shine in 2015. thanks, douglas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 2, 2015 -> 06:36 AM) most historic game ever, surpasses the '05 postseason, not even close. name any other single game that had more impact. Johhny Danks will always be remembered for his performance that nite. I think he still has it in him and he will shine in 2015. thanks, douglas Solid argument. You win the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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