Have you noticed the difference?

[witesoxfan]

with all due respect, but this team is really 1 very good sp away. most teams can deal with 1 or 2 weak hitting positional player. there is no way a team will field a team of 100% really above avg players.

 

1 sp to help in many ways. short term contract.

 

They are further than one starting pitcher away from being a guaranteed playoff team. Essentially guaranteeing a playoff team would result in them adding someone like Chase Utley at 2B, replacing Garcia in RF with a surer bet, AND adding a starting pitcher. That would result in a ton of damage to the minor league system and would be putting all the eggs in the 2015 basket, because that team would get really old with no replacement parts in tow in a hell of a hurry.

[LDF]

The difference between the two is the cost of hte players on your major league roster. Kids are cheaper than the vets you trade them for.

 

yes and the way the Fa's rt is going, i can see a need for a great farm. the problem is the uncertainty of there performance just removed from minor league and facing major league pitching. i would rather have them spend some time as a backup role in the majors.

 

this team does not have that luxury, they had to rush players into a position of failure. rush a player who is not ready, b/c the team was really thin

[Reddy]

Washington's long man right now is Tanner freaking Roark. THAT'S a surefire postseason team. Their entire starting 5 could have sub-3 eras. Probably won't, but they could.

[Reddy]

yes and the way the Fa's rt is going, i can see a need for a great farm. the problem is the uncertainty of there performance just removed from minor league and facing major league pitching. i would rather have them spend some time as a backup role in the majors.

 

this team does not have that luxury, they had to rush players into a position of failure. rush a player who is not ready, b/c the team was really thin

 

that is not how you develop major league regulars.

[Balta1701]

Washington's long man right now is Tanner freaking Roark. THAT'S a surefire postseason team. Their entire starting 5 could have sub-3 eras. Probably won't, but they could.

The problem there is diminishing returns. They're going to make the postseason, but how much use do they get from their high cost 4 and 5 starters down the stretch and in the postseason?

[LDF]

They are further than one starting pitcher away from being a guaranteed playoff team. Essentially guaranteeing a playoff team would result in them adding someone like Chase Utley at 2B, replacing Garcia in RF with a surer bet, AND adding a starting pitcher. That would result in a ton of damage to the minor league system and would be putting all the eggs in the 2015 basket, because that team would get really old with no replacement parts in tow in a hell of a hurry.

 

I can see what you are saying and i will respectfully disagree on seeing players succeed. i also agree in wasting the young prospects. this is not what i am advocating. i am saying a few prospect to get that sp, of all all that has been discuss, this team need if it could get it is a sp.

 

the sox can not plan for the future, when the window of making a really great splash is now.

[LDF]

that is not how you develop major league regulars.

 

when the roster is full of talented players, they can ease the prospects in.

[Eminor3rd]

It's also diminishing returns for us. Under the current climate where there are TONS of teams in the running for some very shaky playoff spots, the difference between a "solid" team and a "great" team, in terms of WS chances, is smaller than ever. Pushing in more than we have takes a big chunk out of the core of the future just to add a couple percentage points in the present.

[LDF]

Washington's long man right now is Tanner freaking Roark. THAT'S a surefire postseason team. Their entire starting 5 could have sub-3 eras. Probably won't, but they could.

 

btw, lets expand this discussion to other teams beside Wash.

 

Wash has a great starting 4/5 sp.

[LDF]

It's also diminishing returns for us. Under the current climate where there are TONS of teams in the running for some very shaky playoff spots, the difference between a "solid" team and a "great" team, in terms of WS chances, is smaller than ever. Pushing in more than we have takes a big chunk out of the core of the future just to add a couple percentage points in the present.

 

and what happen if Jeff S walks, Rodon is not the pitcher everyone thought he would be, Sale gets hurt again. there is many possibilities that can happen. the one constant is, this team, next yr can take that giant leap into the playoff.

[Dick Allen]

There's been a lot of "why didn't we go get the final couple pieces?" and "prospects are just prospects are bust rate Mitchell ahead of Trout blah blah" lately, and I think that both types of complaints are short-sighted; they don't take the RH master plan or the current competitive state of the MLB into perspective. I think they represent obsolete lines of thought that describe the environment ten or so years ago but are not relevant or useful in the climate today. But I haven't been able to communicate my argument very well, partially because I'm not sure I even UNDERSTOOD my argument very well. But with yesterday's release of Keith Law's system rankings, I think it all finally makes sense in a concrete way.

 

Let me ask you this:

 

When was the last time the Sox went into the season billed as a legitimate playoff contender AND had a top-half ranked farm system?

 

THIS is what it's supposed to look like. This is the "sustainable competitiveness" model in its infancy. It doesn't matter if you think Law is too high or too low on the system or Sullivan is too low on the Sox 2015 chances, the point is that they are in the running and somehow still on the upswing, both in terms of the ML roster AND the farm system.

 

This team has flaws, and we should admit it. If the team doesn't meet our expectations, I think it will be due to some combination of our lack of depth being exposed and the fact that we always assume that our superstars will never regress from exceptional performances for some reason. But there's no question that the team is a "contender." And unlike the previous KW-branded regime, it came without the cost of ruining the future.

 

So next time you feel like JR is stingy or that RH values prospects too much, look how far RH has taken this ship in just two years, and look how much brighter things look from ALL angles than they have since October of 2005. It's about balance and patience. It'll probably mean we will always be able to find holes in our team and always wish they would have spent $20m more, but if they can avoid tipping the scales too much in either direction (present or future), we can look forward to going into every season with justified hopes for the playoffs.

The 2000 White Sox won 95 games and had the #1 ranked farm system in baseball. They missed the playoffs the next 4 seasons. Prospects still have to develop, major leaguers still have to perform. You can do everything that seems correct, but sustained success is never guaranteed. This team had all the advantages for a while in their division. They should have been like Detroit is now, like Cleveland in the late 90's, then Minnesota, where the playoffs were a given, but for some reason, not necessarily on paper, they had a second place mindset. After they won in 2005, and were dominating the first half of 2006, I thought they were going to have a run which would have snowballed by keeping the park full and making broadcasts more lucrative. It didn't happen. Hopefully, this time it does.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

It's also diminishing returns for us. Under the current climate where there are TONS of teams in the running for some very shaky playoff spots, the difference between a "solid" team and a "great" team, in terms of WS chances, is smaller than ever. Pushing in more than we have takes a big chunk out of the core of the future just to add a couple percentage points in the present.

 

Right. I know James Shields would be a good fit baseball-wise on the club right now, but what does he increase the Sox odds of reaching the postseason to? From 40% to 65%? Maybe? Meanwhile, the moves made prior to this increased the Sox odds of going to the postseason from like 5% (or worse) to 33-40%. The Sox have a team that should be very good this year and could legitimately be great. How much more does a guy like Shields, Zimmerman, or Strasburg really add to the current club? And then as a result, you are sending away a ton of money or a couple of very good prospects.

[LDF]

and what happen if Jeff S walks, Rodon is not the pitcher everyone thought he would be, Sale gets hurt again. there is many possibilities that can happen. the one constant is, this team, next yr can take that giant leap into the playoff.

 

and i will say this again, i will trust Hahn skills to continue to make this team better in 2016+

[LDF]

Right. I know James Shields would be a good fit baseball-wise on the club right now, but what does he increase the Sox odds of reaching the postseason to? From 40% to 65%? Maybe? Meanwhile, the moves made prior to this increased the Sox odds of going to the postseason from like 5% (or worse) to 33-40%. The Sox have a team that should be very good this year and could legitimately be great. How much more does a guy like Shields, Zimmerman, or Strasburg really add to the current club? And then as a result, you are sending away a ton of money or a couple of very good prospects.

 

i would then trust our chances with them in the rotation and help on the workload.

 

what happen if you take that cautious route, only to learn the prospects does not fully develop as hope.

 

it is like roulette: and betting on the double zero, it can be a long shot. waiting.

[southsider2k5]

and what happen if Jeff S walks, Rodon is not the pitcher everyone thought he would be, Sale gets hurt again. there is many possibilities that can happen. the one constant is, this team, next yr can take that giant leap into the playoff.

 

The odds of those scenarios happening are pretty darned close to zero. If they did happen, the franchise is pretty well screwed anyway.

[Eminor3rd]

the sox can not plan for the future, when the window of making a really great splash is now.

 

The issue is that everything that Hahn's regime has communicated, both directly and implied, does NOT agree with the sentence above.

 

The window is not simply now, it is (theoretically) every year going forward. If you resign yourself to the idea that Sale/Abreu cannot be "wasted," you're already accepting the cycle of going for broke and rebuilding, a model that is showing to be disastrous for the few teams still attempting it. Instead, you need to realize that we need to take advantage of Sale/Abreu now while also developing their replacements down the road.

 

If you want to see it in action, look at the Cardinals. When was the last time they didn't enter a season with legitimate playoff chances? When was the last time they didn't also have at least a decent farm? And the result? A couple WS championships, and, since 1996, they've only dropped below 4th in MLB attendance ONCE, when they were 6th in 2004. They have signed a handful of big time free agents and also let ahndful of them go. They've been restrained at times so they could be aggressive at times. It's smart resource management and it's paid off in spades.

 

It's balanced, patient, sustained winning where every part of the machine is running efficiently. It means assets have to be juggled. It takes time to set up, but you have to stay the course.

 

[Eminor3rd]

The 2000 White Sox won 95 games and had the #1 ranked farm system in baseball. They missed the playoffs the next 4 seasons. Prospects still have to develop, major leaguers still have to perform. You can do everything that seems correct, but sustained success is never guaranteed. This team had all the advantages for a while in their division. They should have been like Detroit is now, like Cleveland in the late 90's, then Minnesota, where the playoffs were a given, but for some reason, not necessarily on paper, they had a second place mindset. After they won in 2005, and were dominating the first half of 2006, I thought they were going to have a run which would have snowballed by keeping the park full and making broadcasts more lucrative. It didn't happen. Hopefully, this time it does.

 

So the answer is "15 years ago." Doesn't seem like much in the grand scheme of things, but considering how quickly the landscape of baseball changes, I think it's safe to say that this all looks about as clean as it has in a very long time. Long enough to have seen offense at near an alltime high and now offense at near an alltime low.

 

Success is never guaranteed, but the goal is to get to a point where, if things do fall apart for a season, you aren't more than a quick reload away from being back in the picture.

[LDF]

The issue is that everything that Hahn's regime has communicated, both directly and implied, does NOT agree with the sentence above.

 

The window is not simply now, it is (theoretically) every year going forward. If you resign yourself to the idea that Sale/Abreu cannot be "wasted," you're already accepting the cycle of going for broke and rebuilding, a model that is showing to be disastrous for the few teams still attempting it. Instead, ``1. - you need to realize that we need to take advantage of Sale/Abreu now while also developing their replacements down the road.

 

If you want to see it in action, look at the ``2. - Cardinals. When was the last time they didn't enter a season with legitimate playoff chances? When was the last time they didn't also have at least a decent farm? And the result? A couple WS championships, and, since 1996, they've only dropped below 4th in MLB attendance ONCE, when they were 6th in 2004. They have signed a handful of big time free agents and also let ahndful of them go. They've been restrained at times so they could be aggressive at times. It's smart resource management and it's paid off in spades.

 

It's balanced, patient, sustained winning where every part of the machine is running efficiently. It means assets have to be juggled. It takes time to set up, but you have to stay the course.

 

ref 1 that is what i have been saying all along now. be smart, make the necessary investment to go to the playoff.

 

2. stl has a stack team with good, very good prospects. this sox team is trying to do both and at some point need to sacrifice a little of one to help the other.

[witesoxfan]

i would then trust our chances with them in the rotation and help on the workload.

 

what happen if you take that cautious route, only to learn the prospects does not fully develop as hope.

 

it is like roulette: and betting on the double zero, it can be a long shot. waiting.

 

The Sox aren't taking the cautious route. The cautious route would have involved them not trading for Samardzija or signing LaRoche or Duke or Robertson or Cabrera. The cautious route would have had them going into the season with Viciedo in LF. They have not been cautious at all.

 

They have also not been reckless, which is what I'd argue you are advocating.

[LDF]

So the answer is "15 years ago." Doesn't seem like much in the grand scheme of things, but considering how quickly the landscape of baseball changes, I think it's safe to say that this all looks about as clean as it has in a very long time. Long enough to have seen offense at near an alltime high and now offense at near an alltime low.

 

Success is never guaranteed, but the goal is to get to a point where, if things do fall apart for a season, you aren't more than a quick reload away from being back in the picture.

 

but the wild card there is to get there. all can be talked about, but this team needs to get into a position where what we are talking about can be fully explored.

 

you also have to take 1 giant thing into consideration. FANs attendance. remember the owners are still crying no money.

[Eminor3rd]

ref 1 that is what i have been saying all along now. be smart, make the necessary investment to go to the playoff.

 

2. stl has a stack team with good, very good prospects. this sox team is trying to do both and at some point need to sacrifice a little of one to help the other.

 

RE: #2 -- I think they HAVE done that. However, even though the system is the strongest it's been in years, it is still in the midst of a LONG climb up. We've got some top end talent, but it still isn't deep. t's not strong enough now that we could remove any more key pieces without making it get worse quickly.

[witesoxfan]

2. stl has a stack team with good, very good prospects. this sox team is trying to do both and at some point need to sacrifice a little of one to help the other.

 

 

The Sox are trying to be like the Cardinals. It takes time. Rome wasn't built in a day.

[LDF]

The Sox aren't taking the cautious route. The cautious route would have involved them not trading for Samardzija or signing LaRoche or Duke or Robertson or Cabrera. The cautious route would have had them going into the season with Viciedo in LF. They have not been cautious at all.

 

They have also not been reckless, which is what I'd argue you are advocating.

 

it was being reckless early in the off-season with the FA's to have address the sp situation.

[ptatc]

The difference between the two is the cost of hte players on your major league roster. Kids are cheaper than the vets you trade them for.

True. However, it is also more of a gamble going with the prospects because you have no idea how good they will be. Plus it usually takes a couple of years for the young player to settle in, if they ever do. you have a better idea MLB proven player is going to do. It's less of a risk.

[LDF]

The Sox are trying to be like the Cardinals. It takes time. Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

haha.... i soo agree to this.

 

nice one.