Have you noticed the difference?

[LDF]

What? How did you possibly come to that conclusion from his post?

 

The whole point of this thread, and his response in summary, is that the team has reached a point where it can AFFORD to make some moves with prospects and still be left with a middle-of-the-pack system. The key to maintaining that is moderation -- realizing that the cost of going ALL IN is too high and return too little in the current MLB environment, and that a balanced approach to remaining competitive without ebing the best team in the league allows you to also maintain a decent farm which leads to sustained competitiveness.

 

What you just said I agree with is exactly the opposite of what I agree with.

 

no offense, but this was nice reading.

[caulfield12]

4 or 5 players being involved in a trade isn't important, it's the ability of those players.

 

It's not like we traded away Anderson, Rodon (as PTBNL), etc.

 

 

We traded from our biggest area of strength, middle infield, where we now have Sanchez/Johnson/Bonifacio/Saladino/L.Garcia/Beckham/Anderson...

 

The ONE and only concern most have is that Bassit looked really good at times, but nobody knows if he can make it as a starter long-term. And that's the biggest area of weakness, the 4-5 spots. In the end, adding a 2-3 starter outweighed having insurance for a 4-5 starter in Noesi.

 

And to reiterate, Ynoa still has lots of potential. Not to mention the fact that we've got plenty of catching options now (Soto/Kottaras/Brantly) and Nieto/Kevan Smith passed Phegley in the eyes of the front office.

Edited January 30, 2015 by caulfield12

[Heads22]

Wite brought up a good point earlier.

 

What percentage chance would you give us to make the playoffs?

What chances would you have given us at the end of 2014?

What chance would you have been happy with us improving to at the end of 2014?

 

I'm frickin thrilled. At least playoff talk isn't crazy. I also like our top 3 starters against any in baseball.

[Reddy]

Wite brought up a good point earlier.

 

What percentage chance would you give us to make the playoffs?

What chances would you have given us at the end of 2014?

What chance would you have been happy with us improving to at the end of 2014?

 

I'm frickin thrilled. At least playoff talk isn't crazy. I also like our top 3 starters against any in baseball.

Yessss. agreed.

 

I know it sounds like I'm a debbie downer, but I'm super stoked about the season, and that we can even ARGUE about competing.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Reddy

[caulfield12]

It's a great time in Sox history when Balta is the most negative/"realistic" poster these days, haha.

 

 

[LDF]

 

What percentage chance would you give us to make the playoffs?

80% if all things being equal and the team stays healthy.... 95% if the sox got another sp.

What chances would you have given us at the end of 2014?

0% i wanted the protected draft pick.

What chance would you have been happy with us improving to at the end of 2014?

say as above.

 

 

 

[ptatc]

What? How did you possibly come to that conclusion from his post?

 

The whole point of this thread, and his response in summary, is that the team has reached a point where it can AFFORD to make some moves with prospects and still be left with a middle-of-the-pack system. The key to maintaining that is moderation -- realizing that the cost of going ALL IN is too high and return too little in the current MLB environment, and that a balanced approach to remaining competitive without ebing the best team in the league allows you to also maintain a decent farm which leads to sustained competitiveness.

 

What you just said I agree with is exactly the opposite of what I agree with.

We are looking at the discussion from a different point of view then. his example of Smaardzja was in response to why it's important to have a minor league system as opposed to acquiring veterans with a minor league system. My point was that trades like that one would eventually deplete the minor league system so this example goes against anyone who wants to keep the minors intact.

[ptatc]

4 or 5 players being involved in a trade isn't important, it's the ability of those players.

 

It's not like we traded away Anderson, Rodon (as PTBNL), etc.

 

 

We traded from our biggest area of strength, middle infield, where we now have Sanchez/Johnson/Bonifacio/Saladino/L.Garcia/Beckham/Anderson...

 

The ONE and only concern most have is that Bassit looked really good at times, but nobody knows if he can make it as a starter long-term. And that's the biggest area of weakness, the 4-5 spots. In the end, adding a 2-3 starter outweighed having insurance for a 4-5 starter in Noesi.

 

And to reiterate, Ynoa still has lots of potential. Not to mention the fact that we've got plenty of catching options now (Soto/Kottaras/Brantly) and Nieto/Kevan Smith passed Phegley in the eyes of the front office.

correct. My pint ios that this is a unique situation where the Soxwere able to trade lesser talent because he is a 1 year rental they hope he gives them a a better chance to sign him because he is from the area. These do not come along very often. Also, if the Sox continually trade 4 players for 1 year rentals, they will not sign all of them and the minors will be depleted.

 

This type of trade was really good for the Sox. However, to say that this is what they should always be able to do with a strong minor league system is inaccurate because this situation doesn't come along very often. They weren't able to do it because of a strong system it was luck and the right scenario.

[southsider2k5]

Wite brought up a good point earlier.

 

What percentage chance would you give us to make the playoffs?

What chances would you have given us at the end of 2014?

What chance would you have been happy with us improving to at the end of 2014?

 

I'm frickin thrilled. At least playoff talk isn't crazy. I also like our top 3 starters against any in baseball.

 

 

What percentage chance would you give us to make the playoffs? 25

What chances would you have given us at the end of 2014? 1

What chance would you have been happy with us improving to at the end of 2014? I didn't have nearly as high of expectations so 50

[Eminor3rd]

You're right, bullpen is important in the playoffs, but you are not looking at this in context. Many say that this team is built better for the playoffs because our top 3 is among the best in the league. But come playoff time, are we really comfortable saying we have an edge in our starting pitching if Q can only go 4 or 5 innings for us and we have to rely on a shaky bullpen to hold down the fort? If you're the Royals, sure, if you're the White Sox, no. That, along with no playoff experience, and Sale's second half fatigue really poke a lot of holes in the claim that "we are built for the playoffs".

 

I'm not arguing that we're better for the playoffs than the regular season -- so I may agree with you there -- I'm just saying that it's not BECAUSE Quintana will only go 5 innings. On a per-inning basis, reliever perform better than starters.

[LittleHurt05]

See Oakland A's, 2014.

 

Are you saying that trade didn't work out? Without Jon Lester the 2014 A's probably don't even make it to KC for the wild card game, so I think it was a positive trade.

[caulfield12]

Are you saying that trade didn't work out? Without Jon Lester the 2014 A's probably don't even make it to KC for the wild card game, so I think it was a positive trade.

 

I mean everyone was predicting them to win the WS at the culmination of all those moves.

[LittleHurt05]

I mean everyone was predicting them to win the WS at the culmination of all those moves.

 

Except for Billy Beane, I thought I remember some quotes at the time of the trade saying that it wasn't just about the playoffs, they needed him for the stretch run. With all the injuries that piled up and all the career year guys that regressed to the norm, they needed him to hold off Seattle.

 

That being said, he choked away a lead in the WC game, so the trade wasn't a rousing success, but I don't think it was a failure, they got to the playoffs.

[LDF]

correct. My pint ios that this is a unique situation where the Soxwere able to trade lesser talent because he is a 1 year rental they hope he gives them a a better chance to sign him because he is from the area. These do not come along very often. Also, if the Sox continually trade 4 players for 1 year rentals, they will not sign all of them and the minors will be depleted.

 

This type of trade was really good for the Sox. However, to say that this is what they should always be able to do with a strong minor league system is inaccurate because this situation doesn't come along very often. They weren't able to do it because of a strong system it was luck and the right scenario.

 

there are several point i like to respond to using you post and questions.

 

1. if people thinks that the cost of this yr payroll will go up with signing a sp, what kind of salary do they think, number wise if the sox tries to sign Jeff S???

 

2. trading prospects and in this situation is or may be different than any other situation that may arise in the future. the org needs to take them in as a case by case situation.

 

3. you also have to consider the many positive that a move like that helps. fan attendance, money coming in, commercial appeal

 

4. at the end give him a QO. depending on the team that signs him, is a 1st round pick. by default helping the minors system.

[gatnom]

That's true. However, as you pointed out it is often more successful. So you will win more than you lose which is how you build a good team. The trading prospects away for Samardzja only worked because he is a one year rental and now will become very expensive to keep. It's the reason the price was so low, compared to the talent received. It's a somewhat unique situation where the team hopes to get a little hometown discount or at least an edge to keep him. So the sox may be giving away 4 players for a player for one year. Continuously doing that will deplete the farm system very quickly so you are really arguing against maintaining minor league talent if the Sox do this type of deal often. Unless they are willing to give out huge deals to veterans on a regular basis.

 

But you will lose. When you lose you have Adam Dunn and John Danks taking up large chunks of your payroll, and even when you win you don't often get surplus value out of a veteran. When a prospect fails you have negligible money tied up in them, so it doesn't bog down your payroll. But, since they fail more often it's tough to just throw out a bunch of top prospects and have it translate directly to winning. On the other hand, when a prospect is successful, you get a massive surplus in value relative to what they are paid. So, you make calculated gambles on keeping some prospects, trading some prospects for "proven" talent, and signing some free agents in an attempt to have a sustained run where you aren't completely out of the resources of talent to win games or money to pay your talent.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

The problem with the White Sox system before was not that they traded away good prospects and therefore had none left, they traded away except for one or two exceptions, guys that turned out to be not so great, but they still had no one any good in the system. Hopefully the guys they have now are different. Prospects are BS for the most part, and some guys all of us really like now will be considered garbage in a year or two.

 

I wasn't exactly a KW supporter, but by dealing prospects that didn't amount to much, he wound up with a lot more value than if he had let them develop into what they would ultimately become in the White Sox system.

 

The sin wasn't trading prospects away.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Dick Allen

[GreenSox]

When was the last time the Sox went into the season billed as a legitimate playoff contender AND had a top-half ranked farm system?

 

THIS is what it's supposed to look like. This is the "sustainable competitiveness" model in its infancy. It doesn't matter if you think Law is too high or too low on the system or Sullivan is too low on the Sox 2015 chances, the point is that they are in the running and somehow still on the upswing, both in terms of the ML roster AND the farm system.

Exactly.

Hahn pulled off a great balance - built the major league team, while actually improving the farm system.

Very happy that Hahn had no interest in trading real prospects for some 32 year old who had a decent year last year.

[GreenSox]

The problem with the White Sox system before was not that they traded away good prospects and therefore had none left, they traded away except for one or two exceptions, guys that turned out to be not so great, but they still had no one any good in the system. Hopefully the guys they have now are different. Prospects are BS for the most part, and some guys all of us really like now will be considered garbage in a year or two.

 

I wasn't exactly a KW supporter, but by dealing prospects that didn't amount to much, he wound up with a lot more value than if he had let them develop into what they would ultimately become in the White Sox system.

 

The sin wasn't trading prospects away.

The sin was zig-zagging and not getting full value for either the prospects he traded nor the vets he traded. He overpays for E Jackson then gives him away; he overpays for Swisher, then gets zip when he dumps him. He gifts TCQ to the Padres. Etc. Etc.

[LDF]

The sin was zig-zagging and not getting full value for either the prospects he traded nor the vets he traded. He overpays for E Jackson then gives him away; he overpays for Swisher, then gets zip when he dumps him. He gifts TCQ to the Padres. Etc. Etc.

 

exactly. and that is why i really hated him as a gm

 

Exactly.

Hahn pulled off a great balance - built the major league team, while actually improving the farm system.

Very happy that Hahn had no interest in trading real prospects for some 32 year old who had a decent year last year.

 

the gm needs to find a right balance.

[Dick Allen]

The sin was zig-zagging and not getting full value for either the prospects he traded nor the vets he traded. He overpays for E Jackson then gives him away; he overpays for Swisher, then gets zip when he dumps him. He gifts TCQ to the Padres. Etc. Etc.

In hindsight, the Swisher crap looks real bad. In real time, not that bad. He was a switch hitter signed to a team friendly contract, who took his walks, and got on base, hit with power and was coming into his prime years. Gio was a high price, but he wasn't loved here at Soxtalk. People want to be like the Cardinals. They traded Shelby Miller for a one year rental who hits lefties worse than Adam LaRoche, and people here seem to freak out about how LaRoche can't hit lefties. Swisher obviously didn't work out. He refused to work with the coaches, performed poorly, and his act got old fast. They were getting rid of him no matter what. They got garbage in return without a doubt, but that was the going rate. With the Edwin Jackson, I still don't understand how that is a franchise killer. Hudson was impressive for a while. Jackson was really good with the White Sox. Hudson now has had 2 TJ surgeries, and the Sox still have Daniel Webb to show from the EJax trade. At this point, I would rather have Webb than Hudson. Carlos Quentin wasn't netting the Sox anything. He spends most of the baseball season on the DL.

[caulfield12]

In hindsight, the Swisher crap looks real bad. In real time, not that bad. He was a switch hitter signed to a team friendly contract, who took his walks, and got on base, hit with power and was coming into his prime years. Gio was a high price, but he wasn't loved here at Soxtalk. People want to be like the Cardinals. They traded Shelby Miller for a one year rental who hits lefties worse than Adam LaRoche, and people here seem to freak out about how LaRoche can't hit lefties. Swisher obviously didn't work out. He refused to work with the coaches, performed poorly, and his act got old fast. They were getting rid of him no matter what. They got garbage in return without a doubt, but that was the going rate. With the Edwin Jackson, I still don't understand how that is a franchise killer. Hudson was impressive for a while. Jackson was really good with the White Sox. Hudson now has had 2 TJ surgeries, and the Sox still have Daniel Webb to show from the EJax trade. At this point, I would rather have Webb than Hudson. Carlos Quentin wasn't netting the Sox anything. He spends most of the baseball season on the DL.

 

Santos, Reed, Floyd and Crain. Those hurt, too.

[LDF]

 

what get me today, being Sat 1-31. after a week of great discussions, today is like it very anticlimactic. and i am tired thinking.

 

great job to all.

[AlSoxfan]

The opening statement is well said and thought out. I'm very guilty of not being very patient, but I try. I think Hahn has done a fantastic job so far and JR's doing the right thing and being a good owner. That being said I would love to see the Sox sign Shields but I think it would be foolish if they did. I think it's time for Hahn and us as fans to sit back and watch this team perform. They very well might surprise us. I honestly think we're a legit contender for the central, an if not we can retool for next yr. and I will say this We're not far from being really good if we're not already. I'm looking forward to some Oct. baseball in Chi.

[Jerksticks]

In hindsight, the Swisher crap looks real bad. In real time, not that bad. He was a switch hitter signed to a team friendly contract, who took his walks, and got on base, hit with power and was coming into his prime years. Gio was a high price, but he wasn't loved here at Soxtalk. People want to be like the Cardinals. They traded Shelby Miller for a one year rental who hits lefties worse than Adam LaRoche, and people here seem to freak out about how LaRoche can't hit lefties. Swisher obviously didn't work out. He refused to work with the coaches, performed poorly, and his act got old fast. They were getting rid of him no matter what. They got garbage in return without a doubt, but that was the going rate. With the Edwin Jackson, I still don't understand how that is a franchise killer. Hudson was impressive for a while. Jackson was really good with the White Sox. Hudson now has had 2 TJ surgeries, and the Sox still have Daniel Webb to show from the EJax trade. At this point, I would rather have Webb than Hudson. Carlos Quentin wasn't netting the Sox anything. He spends most of the baseball season on the DL.

Thank you dick. I feel like this will help some of the KW bashers realize the same regime is in charge and has the same goal & agenda it always has: win.

[SCCWS]

there are several point i like to respond to using you post and questions.

 

1. if people thinks that the cost of this yr payroll will go up with signing a sp, what kind of salary do they think, number wise if the sox tries to sign Jeff S???

 

2. trading prospects and in this situation is or may be different than any other situation that may arise in the future. the org needs to take them in as a case by case situation.

 

3. you also have to consider the many positive that a move like that helps. fan attendance, money coming in, commercial appeal

 

4. at the end give him a QO. depending on the team that signs him, is a 1st round pick. by default helping the minors system.

 

 

I do not think that signing another starting pitcher will affect attendance too much. Last winter the Sox signed arguably the best hitter in baseball for 2014. Yet attendance took a big drop. Hopefully a team that is in playoff contention can at least make up for most of the attendance drop it suffered last year. Has anyone seen any numbers on advanced season ticket sales ???

 

You posted that the Sox's chances of making the playoffs would go from 80-95% with another SP. You may want to place a bet on Sox winning it all then. Because at this point Vegas does not have them even making the playoffs ( before Beckham addition).