James Shields

[LDF]

I'm a firm believer than winning trumps style of play, from a fans' standpoint, but there will be rule tweaks coming soon, that are at least designed to raise scoring. May even see an NL DH.

 

winning is the main point for any discussion. i have always stated, i would rather have a team made up of a player who can hit 10-15+ hrs, an avg of 290+ and strikeout about 70-90 time. that kind of team will win many more games then having that free swinging hitter who belts 30+ hrs.

Edited February 8, 2015 by LDF

[Reddy]

Green? Sarcasm? I'm guessing.

 

Regardless, the A's didn't have a single 800 OPS on their playoff roster. They were counting on the pitching to be perfect - and the playoffs are a crapshoot anyway. Had they held on against the Royals, who knows?

 

 

I'm a firm believer than winning trumps style of play, from a fans' standpoint, but there will be rule tweaks coming soon, that are at least designed to raise scoring. May even see an NL DH.

 

Haha no! Not sarcasm! Legitimately a great point. I'm not allllways snarky.

 

[ILMOU]

winning is the main point for any discussion. i have always stated, i would rather have a team made up of a player who can hit 20+ hrs, an avg of 290+ and strikeout about 70-90 time. that kind of team will win many more games that having that free swinging hitter who belts 30+ hrs.

 

Yes indeed. These are the type of numbers I was pretty much trying to convey with the "professional AB" comment.

 

It's OK to K like Abreu , though, imo, when the contact is as well-barreled as in Jose's case. I think he'll settle in to about 100-120K/year, which is fine for his level of damage.

 

It will be VERY interesting to see how bats like Baez and Bryant for the Cubs adjust, or don't, to the excellent pitching environment. Their Milb K rates are what I would describe as "borderline", and there is a tipping point on K rates, past which a hitter is completely discombobulated, and the pitcher knows he doesn't need to throw strikes - it's a hitter's hell, and it's not uncommon. Javy seems to have swing issues that KB doesn't, so he's the worse bet, but Bryant may also experience a rude awakening - after, undoubtedly, hitting 10 bombs in his first couple of weeks.

 

There have been very, very few players who became GREAT mlb'ers with a rate as high as Bryant's, and the current pitching environment is rather cruel. Tough call. Not the slam-dunk Cubbie fans are assuming, imo.

 

Back to topic, is JS a Padre yet? I'm most interested to see what the # of years / $ / vesting options turn out to be. It MAY even effect Shark's ultimate decision/desire for FA/years demanded, as he sees what a high-mileage 33y.o. arm is, or isn't, worth.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[lvjeremylv]

I have no idea about runners, but I'm sure that there are MORE people with faster times now, than at any other point in history.

 

Additionally, you're right! The elbow CAN'T handle it! That's why 33% of pitchers in baseball had TJ surgery last year! The difference is that most of them will come back stronger than before! Meaning there are MORE good pitchers now, than at any other time in history. Just like runners.

 

Usually your posts are so logical and well thought out. I'm surprised.

Lol, they did? Do you mean there was a 33% increase?

[Reddy]

Lol, they did? Do you mean there was a 33% increase?

Since 2012, 54 pitchers have undergone TJ surgery. All of the pitchers in the Tigers bullpen have had it. I was pulling that stat from memory, so it was a bit inflated, but not by much.

 

ETA 25 in 2014 alone.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Reddy

[Balta1701]

How many pitchers from this current generation are going to make the Hall of Fame or even make it to 200 wins?

 

There might be more focus on pitching than ever before...but it's obviously going to shift back to hitters at some point, because casual fans clearly prefer offense to defense.

 

If that wasn't the case. soccer/football would be much more popular in the US than it is.

 

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/226964-...-the-90s/page/8

 

Take the "Top 30 pitchers from the 90's" and adjust their statistics to the new norm of the last few seasons for offense.

 

Yet another factor is the fascination with radar gun readings, many of which have been cranked up 2-3 MPH higher than reality in order to get fans more excited about numbers in the 100's.

 

Are we to believe pitchers magically are throwing much harder in the last five years than at any time in history, after basically having the notion that guys in the 50's and 60's like Sudden Sam McDowell, Ryne Duren or Nolan Ryan threw that much harder than anyone in modern baseball?

 

 

um... yes? emphatically yes?

In 2008, the average fastball clocked at 90.8. By 2013 it had risen to 92.

 

In 2003, only 1 pitcher threw 25+ balls clocked at 100+. In 2013, 22 pitchers did.

 

Your only explanation for this is that its a league-wide conspiracy to crank up radar gun readings.

[LDF]

Yes indeed. These are the type of numbers I was pretty much trying to convey with the "professional AB" comment.

 

It's OK to K like Abreu , though, imo, when the contact is as well-barreled as in Jose's case. I think he'll settle in to about 100-120K/year, which is fine for his level of damage.

 

It will be VERY interesting to see how bats like Baez and Bryant for the Cubs adjust, or don't, to the excellent pitching environment. Their Milb K rates are what I would describe as "borderline", and there is a tipping point on K rates, past which a hitter is completely discombobulated, and the pitcher knows he doesn't need to throw strikes - it's a hitter's hell, and it's not uncommon. Javy seems to have swing issues that KB doesn't, so he's the worse bet, but Bryant may also experience a rude awakening - after, undoubtedly, hitting 10 bombs in his first couple of weeks.

 

There have been very, very few players who became GREAT mlb'ers with a rate as high as Bryant's, and the current pitching environment is rather cruel. Tough call. Not the slam-dunk Cubbie fans are assuming, imo.

 

Back to topic, is JS a Padre yet? I'm most interested to see what the # of years / $ / vesting options turn out to be. It MAY even effect Shark's ultimate decision/desire for FA/years demanded, as he sees what a high-mileage 33y.o. arm is, or isn't, worth.

 

shields, at 4 yrs.... that is 1 yr too much for my liking. 4yrs with his 33 yo, i just don't see him being able to be cost effective for the length of his salary.

 

on a side note, now what ever happen to that particular hitting coach who wanted his players in spring training to hit, but to hit for different situation. Walt Hriniak, whose main idea is to make contact. he would have players in spring training to hit the other way, to hit up the middle, this was done all the time. he believe a person can hit normal when game is being played, but to constantly practice what is usually given. the ability to hit the other way, not to try to hit the hr all the time.

 

his other thing was to purposely hit grounders to a certain position, to get that bat control, in other words, hit what the pitchers give you on any situation when runners are on base.

 

i don't hear that kind of coaching anymore.

[Eminor3rd]

Why are we to believe that pitchers have significantly improved and are actually better in this generation?

 

They haven't. They aren't.

 

It's simply perception. Back in the 90's, the hitters seemed better because of their glaring statistical numbers. Now that has shifted to the favor of the pitchers, but it will swing back again. It always does.

 

Whether it's changes to the baseball, the calling of the strike zone, steroids, Tommy John recoveries...all these things will return to mean, just as the National League was the dominant style from the late 50's to the 70's and then shifted back to the American League (along with the DH change) until returning to balance again in the last 5-10 years.

 

Are we to believe that parents all across America are suddenly training their children to be left-handed pitchers instead of catchers or 3B?

 

It's simple -- there are more players playing baseball across the world than ever before. The fields of training and medicine are more advanced than ever before. The game has evolved in a such a way that specialization in pitching is encouraged, thus increasing the pool of players that can be useful even further.

[Dick Allen]

It's simple -- there are more players playing baseball across the world than ever before. The fields of training and medicine are more advanced than ever before. The game has evolved in a such a way that specialization in pitching is encouraged, thus increasing the pool of players that can be useful even further.

Why wouldn't that mean the quality of hitter is better? 7000 more whiffs in 2014 than 2005. That is 35 2014 Chris Sales.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Dick Allen

[ILMOU]

I went to this page, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=0&sort=0,d

expecting, perhaps, to see a lower HR/FB ratio in recent years vs. the steroid era - stronger, juiced players being able to clear the fence more readily being the theory - but I don't think there's anything significant there.

 

There does seem to be a small trend of pitchers suppressing FB's and creating GB's a bit better. One way or another, the arms are currently winning.

[caulfield12]

In 2008, the average fastball clocked at 90.8. By 2013 it had risen to 92.

 

In 2003, only 1 pitcher threw 25+ balls clocked at 100+. In 2013, 22 pitchers did.

 

Your only explanation for this is that its a league-wide conspiracy to crank up radar gun readings.

 

 

It's partially because of the proliferation of in-stadium radar gun readings being shown on the board.

 

And yes, there are some stadiums with those particular pitchers (like Aroldis Chapman) where they do crank it up enough to get their guys over the top more consistently...along with the "video game" industry evolving graphics and pitch effects-wise and there's the whole marketing/excitement angle for fans. Once 100 becomes a sort of routine...then a substitute will have to replace it as the marginal utility of throwing that high is career-risk/arm and shoulder surgeries.

 

Of course, the biggest factor is the fact that starters no longer are rewarded for complete games, it's pretty much discouraged from the minor league level on up. Just like closers tire now in their second inning of work (or certainly second time through the line-up), there's a number of pitchers who are fine-tuned to just go 5-6 innings at max effort and then turn the game over the pens.

 

Can we objectively say that pitching has become better?

 

Or is it more that with specialization and huge contracts for even set-up guys (think of loogies that hang on seemingly forever) that the quality of relief pitching has simply gone up by 25-50% in the last decade or so?

 

Is there any way to chart average bullpen ERA's over the decades versus ERA's from starters?

 

I think you'll also find that with more offensive parity, there are fewer blowout games where the "long mans" of the world like Dylan Axelrod/Rienzo/Jamie Carroll have to put up significant innings than previously.

Edited February 8, 2015 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

I went to this page, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=0&sort=0,d

expecting, perhaps, to see a lower HR/FB ratio in recent years vs. the steroid era - stronger, juiced players being able to clear the fence more readily being the theory - but I don't think there's anything significant there.

 

There does seem to be a small trend of pitchers suppressing FB's and creating GB's a bit better. One way or another, the arms are currently winning.

Umps are also calling bigger, more accurate strike zones over the last 5 years, particularly at the lower edge of the strike zone. Combine that with the better overall pitching quality and there you go.

[Reddy]

Why wouldn't that mean the quality of hitter is better? 7000 more whiffs in 2014 than 2005. That is 35 2014 Chris Sales.

Why are you ignoring my statistics?

[Reddy]

It's partially because of the proliferation of in-stadium radar gun readings being shown on the board.

 

And yes, there are some stadiums with those particular pitchers (like Aroldis Chapman) where they do crank it up enough to get their guys over the top more consistently...along with the "video game" industry evolving graphics and pitch effects-wise and there's the whole marketing/excitement angle for fans. Once 100 becomes a sort of routine...then a substitute will have to replace it as the marginal utility of throwing that high is career-risk/arm and shoulder surgeries.

 

Of course, the biggest factor is the fact that starters no longer are rewarded for complete games, it's pretty much discouraged from the minor league level on up. Just like closers tire now in their second inning of work (or certainly second time through the line-up), there's a number of pitchers who are fine-tuned to just go 5-6 innings at max effort and then turn the game over the pens.

 

Can we objectively say that pitching has become better?

 

Or is it more that with specialization and huge contracts for even set-up guys (think of loogies that hang on seemingly forever) that the quality of relief pitching has simply gone up by 25-50% in the last decade or so?

 

Is there any way to chart average bullpen ERA's over the decades versus ERA's from starters?

 

I think you'll also find that with more offensive parity, there are fewer blowout games where the "long mans" of the world like Dylan Axelrod/Rienzo/Jamie Carroll have to put up significant innings than previously.

 

 

Do you ha e literally ANY proof about the radar gun theory?

[Dick Allen]

Do you ha e literally ANY proof about the radar gun theory?

The ASMI came out with a statement last year basically blaming the rash of elbow injuries on max effort trying to light up guns. This just doesn't hpeen in major league parks obviously, but the scrutiny that occurs when a potcher's reading drop 1 or 2 miles an hour does give credence to the belief the number being out there for everyone to see most likely increases thr likelihoood of injury.

[Balta1701]

The ASMI came out with a statement last year basically blaming the rash of elbow injuries on max effort trying to light up guns. This just doesn't hpeen in major league parks obviously, but the scrutiny that occurs when a potcher's reading drop 1 or 2 miles an hour does give credence to the belief the number being out there for everyone to see most likely increases thr likelihoood of injury.

That's very different from "Ballparks are artificially increasing the numbers on their radar guns".

[Reddy]

The ASMI came out with a statement last year basically blaming the rash of elbow injuries on max effort trying to light up guns. This just doesn't hpeen in major league parks obviously, but the scrutiny that occurs when a potcher's reading drop 1 or 2 miles an hour does give credence to the belief the number being out there for everyone to see most likely increases thr likelihoood of injury.

 

Well. Yeah. But that same effort to throw harder is what's ALSO contributing to the rise in strikeouts. Pitchers are better and throw harder. Because of that they also get hurt more often, BUT the advances in medicine allow those same pitchers to come back into the game, when in the past, TJ would end their career.

 

Thus, pitching now is better than its ever been ever in the entire history of major league baseball the end.

[Dick Allen]

That's very different from "Ballparks are artificially increasing the numbers on their radar guns".

When you watch games on TV and Hawk gives the speed, it usually is a mph more than what is shown on the screen. I am guessing he is getting it from the gun at the stadium.

 

 

The guns in the park have more than likely made at least some difference in overall increased velocity.

[Dick Allen]

Well. Yeah. But that same effort to throw harder is what's ALSO contributing to the rise in strikeouts. Pitchers are better and throw harder. Because of that they also get hurt more often, BUT the advances in medicine allow those same pitchers to come back into the game, when in the past, TJ would end their career.

 

Thus, pitching now is better than its ever been ever in the entire history of major league baseball the end.

 

If strikeouts were all about velocity, I would agree, but that is not the case. Approach is what is causing the crazy increase in strikeouts.

[Reddy]

If strikeouts were all about velocity, I would agree, but that is not the case. Approach is what is causing the crazy increase in strikeouts.

 

Proof? I gave you statistical proof that pitchers are better now than they've ever been. BEYOND strikeouts. And yet, you don't think those strikeouts are a bi-product of the best pitching the game has ever seen. Instead you think it's because of....... what? Coaching? Kids who "don't care if they strike out"? Where is your statistical proof? Because I gave you statistical proof that - beyond just strikeouts - hitters are not putting up anywhere NEAR the numbers they did even 10 years ago across the board.

 

ETA: there's a distinction by the way. HITTERS are the best they've ever been, as are pitchers. But HITTING is down compared to 10 years ago, because PITCHING is better comparatively.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Reddy

[caulfield12]

Unless we're to believe 80-85% of the steroid usage was among power hitters and that they don't give pitchers as much of an advantage.

 

Or the ball has been changed physically again.

[Dick Allen]

Proof? I gave you statistical proof that pitchers are better now than they've ever been. BEYOND strikeouts. And yet, you don't think those strikeouts are a bi-product of the best pitching the game has ever seen. Instead you think it's because of....... what? Coaching? Kids who "don't care if they strike out"? Where is your statistical proof? Because I gave you statistical proof that - beyond just strikeouts - hitters are not putting up anywhere NEAR the numbers they did even 10 years ago across the board.

 

ETA: there's a distinction by the way. HITTERS are the best they've ever been, as are pitchers. But HITTING is down compared to 10 years ago, because PITCHING is better comparatively.

 

LOL. Watch a game from the 80s. Watch a game in 2015. Look at what batters do with 2 strikes. Google what former players have to say about striking out. Don Baylor was pissed he got to 50 during his MVP year. He has been a MLB manager and hitting coach. He said the approach is totally different. That is proof if you don't want to believe what you see.

[Reddy]

Unless we're to believe 80-85% of the steroid usage was among power hitters and that they don't give pitchers as much of an advantage.

 

Or the ball has been changed physically again.

 

what idea is this in response to?

 

Babe Ruth would blow facing today's pitchers.

[Reddy]

LOL. Watch a game from the 80s. Watch a game in 2015. Look at what batters do with 2 strikes. Google what former players have to say about striking out. Don Baylor was pissed he got to 50 during his MVP year. He has been a MLB manager and hitting coach. He said the approach is totally different. That is proof if you don't want to believe what you see.

 

Don Baylor would strike out 100 times or more in 2015 if he were playing today.

[Dick Allen]

Don Baylor would strike out 100 times or more in 2015 if he were playing today.

He is 65,