lvjeremylv Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:26 PM) You're right. Your opinion is most certainly more accurate than unbiased statistics. Are you familiar with BABIP? The only thing that matters is winning and losing. When the Sox brought in that loser, they usually lost. And sure, BABIP goes up a lot when you suck s*** and allow line drives all over the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:35 PM) The transformation for Bautista, from what I understand, is solely due to a change in approach and swing mechanics. Basically, he was taught to be a complete/opposite-field type hitter his whole career, but when he failed and got to Toronto, they just told him to let it rip every time, figuring he didn't have much to lose at that point. Turned out he was a natural slugger trying to be something he never was. I think David Ortiz has a similar story. Neither of them have anything to do with advanced/traditional stats at all. I don't think there exists any type of model that can predict shifts in performance based on radical changes to approach/arsenal. You forgot the word "steroids" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:47 PM) Ortiz was terrible until he was 28 or 29 Terrible is kind of relative...it's not like he put up Viciedo's numbers his first three full seasons in Minny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 11:25 PM) LOL. Watch a game from the 80s. Watch a game in 2015. Look at what batters do with 2 strikes. Google what former players have to say about striking out. Don Baylor was pissed he got to 50 during his MVP year. He has been a MLB manager and hitting coach. He said the approach is totally different. That is proof if you don't want to believe what you see. george brett would purposely foul pitches off until he was able to get the right pitch. i remember watching a game, he fouled off 10+ pitches until the pitcher got mad and hit him. what resulted was the pitcher getting tossed. george said that was a good enuf result for him. getting a new pitcher. andre dawson the same kind of mentality, alot of hitter of that time thrive on that. does any batter today works that count like that???? and why not???? pete rose, rickey henderson the white sox raines and julio cruz, were willing to cheat home plate and to get hit. old time baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Jon Morosi @jonmorosi 8m8 minutes ago Source: #Padres' most recent offer to James Shields was four years and between $72 million and $80 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Jon Morosi @jonmorosi 5m5 minutes ago To clarify: My sources have not said James Shields has *accepted* offer of 4 years between $72M and $80M. But that is #Padres offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 01:42 AM) Ortiz was a good hitter with the Twins. Bautista was pretty awful until his late 20s. If talent is there, approach changes can work. Maybe his release gets Viciedo thinking he needs to change. Odds are probably against it, but there are always surprises. he needs to get his head out of his arse and listen to the hitting coaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:47 PM) Ortiz was terrible until he was 28 or 29 He put up OPS of over .800 two of his last three years with the Twins and .799 the other. Pllus he was 27 his first year with the Red Sox and he was really good. For a guy who claims to do so much research, you are very wrong. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 08:41 PM) He put up OPS of over .800 two of his last three years with the Twins and .799 the other. Pllus he was 27 his first year with the Red Sox and he was really good. For a guy who claims to do so much research, you are very wrong. Again. When was the first time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (lvjeremylv @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 08:10 PM) The only thing that matters is winning and losing. When the Sox brought in that loser, they usually lost. And sure, BABIP goes up a lot when you suck s*** and allow line drives all over the field. Uh... not inherently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 08:15 PM) You forgot the word "steroids" uh... nope. steroids don't make a bad player a superstar Edited February 9, 2015 by Reddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 02:52 AM) uh... nope. steroids don't make a bad player a superstar ummmm Sammy Sosa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 07:52 PM) uh... nope. steroids don't make a bad player a superstar They can make an average player a superstar. Ortiz, Sosa, Piazza, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 09:12 PM) They can make an average player a superstar. Ortiz, Sosa, Piazza, etc. Simply untrue. They help you hit the ball farther and recover faster, but they can't make you a better hitter. Steroids don't make you hit at the high average level that Piazza did for as long as he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 12:07 AM) Steroids improve hand eye coordination and adderall/vyvanse/provigil (greenies) improve eyesight and coordination. Everybody was drinking the coffee with greenies in it in the 80's, 90's and into the 00's. Then why didn't they work on everyone? Why did Brady Anderson have one huge year and suck the rest of his career? Steroids still require a baseline talent level to be effective enough to produce a superstar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What the hell is this thread about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 09:47 PM) What the hell is this thread about? Poop. Otherwise known as - the boredom of the final weeks leading up to spring training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo 53m53 minutes ago Sources: #Padres in agreement with James Shields on four-year deal. Includes club option for fifth season. Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo 52m52 minutes ago Shields deal is pending a physical. Expected to be in $72-78 million range over four seasons. #Padres Eric Stephen @truebluela 42m42 minutes ago The Padres won the Wil Myers / James Shields trade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (hi8is @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 07:14 AM) Poop. Otherwise known as - the boredom of the final weeks leading up to spring training. as always, you swoop in to enlighten the thread with a sage like response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 01:30 AM) Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo 53m53 minutes ago Sources: #Padres in agreement with James Shields on four-year deal. Includes club option for fifth season. Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo 52m52 minutes ago Shields deal is pending a physical. Expected to be in $72-78 million range over four seasons. #Padres Eric Stephen @truebluela 42m42 minutes ago The Padres won the Wil Myers / James Shields trade Depends on how Shields performs, and when/if he gets injured. He should be okay in the NL West, one would think. They still have a current outfield of Kemp, Maybin, Myers, Quentin, J. Upton and Venable, lol. They've already traded Seth Smith. Maybe the White Sox should reacquire CQ for LaRoche's at-bats against lefties? Maybin would be an interesting piece as well (4th OF), depending on how much salary they were willing to eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 05:41 AM) Depends on how Shields performs, and when/if he gets injured. He should be okay in the NL West, one would think. They still have a current outfield of Kemp, Maybin, Myers, Quentin, J. Upton and Venable, lol. They've already traded Seth Smith. Maybe the White Sox should reacquire CQ for LaRoche's at-bats against lefties? Maybin would be an interesting piece as well (4th OF), depending on how much salary they were willing to eat. YEah I'm kinda glad Shields went to SD. Always been a fan of his and between pitching half his games in that ballpark along with starts in LA and SF he should be effective longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's a far cry from the $144 million, Zach Greinke Dodgers' deal he was aiming for a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 lol I was saying that Shields would get 4 years and $75 million a few months ago and some of you said I was stupidly stupid. Well, who's stupidly stupid now guys? HUH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:19 PM) Yep. He did. But it's because he was unlucky, not because he's a bad pitcher. He'll probably be much better this year. No, Belisario was bad last year. There was some unluckiness to it all - a LOB of 57.7% screams regression to the mean of about 70% - but even with a very good GB% and GB/FB ratio, the one thing we can't tell merely from looking at his numbers was how hard those balls were hit. I didn't see a lot of Belisario last year, but I know I saw him give up of groundballs that were absolutely scalded. He had a tendency to leave the ball up, but with such heavy sink on it the ball still tends to get pounded into the ground. Javy Vazquez put up great fWAR's in 2006 and 2008 too, but if you are going to try and convince me that he was a good pitcher those years, I wouldn't be swayed. Some guys just don't pitch to their talent, which is more of what I think fWAR shows us, and some guys pitch well beyond their talent. This is why I don't wholly disregard bWAR and the like. There is value, because that is based on what they did, but it's not a great predictor of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 9, 2015 -> 09:38 AM) No, Belisario was bad last year. There was some unluckiness to it all - a LOB of 57.7% screams regression to the mean of about 70% - but even with a very good GB% and GB/FB ratio, the one thing we can't tell merely from looking at his numbers was how hard those balls were hit. I didn't see a lot of Belisario last year, but I know I saw him give up of groundballs that were absolutely scalded. He had a tendency to leave the ball up, but with such heavy sink on it the ball still tends to get pounded into the ground. Javy Vazquez put up great fWAR's in 2006 and 2008 too, but if you are going to try and convince me that he was a good pitcher those years, I wouldn't be swayed. Some guys just don't pitch to their talent, which is more of what I think fWAR shows us, and some guys pitch well beyond their talent. This is why I don't wholly disregard bWAR and the like. There is value, because that is based on what they did, but it's not a great predictor of success. I know people don't like things like the eye test and different roles making a difference, but to me Belisario was the poster boy for both. He got off to a horrible start, and then was a lock down set up guy, until they tried him as a closer. Once he hit that closer role, the self-destruct button was hit, and he was terrible again. I think Bellisario is a textbook case of not having enough between the ears to be a guy who does more than be a middle reliever and set up guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts