shysocks Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 09:48 AM) Never did I say that. I'm simply saying that it's a great risk to take. Even with a 4 era he's insanely valuable at that price. Much better than Danks or Noesi, and if he misses, he misses, and you haven't paid much. Plus we have Herm and Coop, the best in the biz. I think you're too bullish on him - "insanely" valuable is an overstatement. He hasn't pitched in 2 years, I doubt he'll be anything like his old self, and his old self was not terribly special anyway. If he is, good for him, but it's not a big deal we missed out on him. Sometimes guys just disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 11:12 AM) I think you're too bullish on him - "insanely" valuable is an overstatement. He hasn't pitched in 2 years, I doubt he'll be anything like his old self, and his old self was not terribly special anyway. If he is, good for him, but it's not a big deal we missed out on him. Sometimes guys just disappear. How common do you think pitchers with a 3-5 WAR/season are? And if 1 WAR is worth $8 million, if he only put up HALF a WAR, he'd be way more valuable than 1.5MM. If he were to put up 1 or 1.5 or 2 WAR, that's insanely valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:27 PM) Shields costs the same as 40 minimum-salaried players. Billingsley costs the same as 3. There's literally no reason to compare the two, and definitely no reason to draw any meaningful conclusion from doing so. Oh, and Chad is three years younger. many know they can count on shield to pitch 170+ innings. while what is Billingsley going to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 09:48 AM) Never did I say that. I'm simply saying that it's a great risk to take. Even with a 4 era he's insanely valuable at that price. Much better than Danks or Noesi, and if he misses, he misses, and you haven't paid much. Plus we have Herm and Coop, the best in the biz. I agree and would have happily given him a minor league deal. But if you have any thoughts of contending you aren't locking him into your Opening Day rotation anytime soon, the Phillies aren't either. QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 10:25 AM) How common do you think pitchers with a 3-5 WAR/season are? And if 1 WAR is worth $8 million, if he only put up HALF a WAR, he'd be way more valuable than 1.5MM. If he were to put up 1 or 1.5 or 2 WAR, that's insanely valuable. That is insanely valuable, key word being "if". That's why he only signed for $1.5 million. I'm sure teams have studied his medical charts, and there's probably something they aren't too excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 10:25 AM) How common do you think pitchers with a 3-5 WAR/season are? And if 1 WAR is worth $8 million, if he only put up HALF a WAR, he'd be way more valuable than 1.5MM. If he were to put up 1 or 1.5 or 2 WAR, that's insanely valuable. I'd love to know how many times a guy has pitched 12 innings over the course of two seasons, and then come back to put those kind of numbers. The odds have to be pretty miniscule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 10:25 AM) How common do you think pitchers with a 3-5 WAR/season are? And if 1 WAR is worth $8 million, if he only put up HALF a WAR, he'd be way more valuable than 1.5MM. If he were to put up 1 or 1.5 or 2 WAR, that's insanely valuable. Billingsley had 2 seasons like that, and the most recent one is having an upcoming 5-year anniversary party. If he put up a half WAR, he'd be no more valuable than the guys already the bottom of our rotation. You said he'd be insanely valuable if he put up a 4 ERA. For comparison, Dan Haren had a 4.02 ERA and a 4.09 FIP last year in 186 innings. His WAR was 1.0. A full season at a 4 ERA would be worth 2 WAR max. Full season is an optimistic guess for how much Billingsley pitches this year. The most likely scenario is that he sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 11:40 AM) Billingsley had 2 seasons like that, and the most recent one is having an upcoming 5-year anniversary party. If he put up a half WAR, he'd be no more valuable than the guys already the bottom of our rotation. You said he'd be insanely valuable if he put up a 4 ERA. For comparison, Dan Haren had a 4.02 ERA and a 4.09 FIP last year in 186 innings. His WAR was 1.0. A full season at a 4 ERA would be worth 2 WAR max. Full season is an optimistic guess for how much Billingsley pitches this year. The most likely scenario is that he sucks. It's a gamble I'd make every single time on a former all-star caliber pitcher for money like that. (barring things in his medical report that I'm not privy to, obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 09:12 AM) There's an $18.5 million dollar difference. OK, you didn't mention price when you said he was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegringokid Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 http://m.mlb.com/news/article/108197788/if...uld-open-wallet It seems rumors are now starting to pop up that Shields was never considered a 9 figure investment and is more likely in the ballpark of what Ubaldo Jiminez, Ervin Santana, or Matt Garza got. Now Anthony Castrovince ponders whether he can be had for something like between 4-50 and 4-55. That would certainly seem more reasonable but even at that price I doubt the Sox pounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I see no way that Shields ends up getting $14 mill per year. If he'd take that, he would have signed already because there would be a ton of teams willing to give him that. If he "settles," I think it'll be for something like $17-18 mill a year, which puts him in the $68-72 million range for 4 years, and I think he could still get $20 million a year too. Also, this sort of thing scares me a bit too: Shields has also thrown the 2nd-most pitches of any MLB hurler over the last eight seasons, behind only Justin Verlander, who turned into a pumpkin — at least temporarily — last season. Before Verlander, the rolling eight-year pitch leader was Dan Haren, who promptly saw his performance decline. Before Haren, it was CC Sabathia. Before Sabathia, it was Barry Zito. Noticing a trend? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whither-james-shields/ In a vacuum, I think I'd take the risk at 4/$68, but I'm becoming much more cautious about bringing him on board. There is a non-zero chance that James Shields could be a total sunk cost and it seems like an incredibly risky endeavor that could cripple any future moves and really hurt the Sox. Your upside is having a strong 1-4 with a few guys waiting in the wings. The downside is Shields getting hurt and never being the same, having a $17 million #4/5 starter (and the Sox already have a $13 million #4/5 starter), limiting what the Sox can do in free agency and with regards to signing their own guys, and the subsequent buyer's remorse and apathy that comes from giving out a bad contract. Ultimately, it's not a risk the Sox should take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If Shields would "settle" for 4/55 I honestly think the Sox would find a way to make that work but that's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 12:48 PM) I see no way that Shields ends up getting $14 mill per year. If he'd take that, he would have signed already because there would be a ton of teams willing to give him that. If he "settles," I think it'll be for something like $17-18 mill a year, which puts him in the $68-72 million range for 4 years, and I think he could still get $20 million a year too. Also, this sort of thing scares me a bit too: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whither-james-shields/ In a vacuum, I think I'd take the risk at 4/$68, but I'm becoming much more cautious about bringing him on board. There is a non-zero chance that James Shields could be a total sunk cost and it seems like an incredibly risky endeavor that could cripple any future moves and really hurt the Sox. Your upside is having a strong 1-4 with a few guys waiting in the wings. The downside is Shields getting hurt and never being the same, having a $17 million #4/5 starter (and the Sox already have a $13 million #4/5 starter), limiting what the Sox can do in free agency and with regards to signing their own guys, and the subsequent buyer's remorse and apathy that comes from giving out a bad contract. Ultimately, it's not a risk the Sox should take. well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlSoxfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It sure does make you stop an think, it would put us over the top I think...3/50 maybe? It'd be nice but how much would that cripple future moves? Could we give Danks away for aptbn next season/mid season? I'd be most concerned with how it might affect resigning Shark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 12:29 PM) It sure does make you stop an think, it would put us over the top I think...3/50 maybe? It'd be nice but how much would that cripple future moves? Could we give Danks away for aptbn next season/mid season? I'd be most concerned with how it might affect resigning Shark. If they signed Shields, you can forget about Samardzija signing an extension, unless the Sox win the World Series or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Practically every team in baseball would be considering James shields at 4/55, therefore the winning bid will be higher than that. I think wite is correct in that if he truly does go for less than we expected, he's still gonna get $70m or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 He's been worth $20M+ a season 7 out of his 8 full seasons. The guy is completely worth $15M a year in my mind. The problem is that he is 33. I would totally do 3 yrs/$50M on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 12:59 PM) He's been worth $20M+ a season 7 out of his 8 full seasons. The guy is completely worth $15M a year in my mind. The problem is that he is 33. I would totally do 3 yrs/$50M on him. But so would the Yankees or Angels or Red Sox or Blue Jays or Tigers or Diamondbacks or any number of other teams. Are you willing to go 3/$60? Or 4/$72? I think someone is going to realize that he could add a lot to their team and give him that kind of contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlSoxfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 01:59 PM) He's been worth $20M+ a season 7 out of his 8 full seasons. The guy is completely worth $15M a year in my mind. The problem is that he is 33. I would totally do 3 yrs/$50M on him. I think for 3/50 I would too. Question is would Hahn or JR for that matter? To be honest for that kinda contract I think he'd have a line of GM's at his door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 01:26 PM) To be honest for that kinda contract I think he'd have a line of GM's at his door. There's no question he would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I can still see the Tigers throwing too much money at him. After losing Scherzer, they need another starter, badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 07:33 PM) I can still see the Tigers throwing too much money at him. After losing Scherzer, they need another starter, badly. all it will take is one team to start the bidding. yeah, i wouldn't mind kicking the tires so to speak, but agents, regardless which, will try to get multi teams involve. good business. not signing him b/c some may want to sign Jeff S, well he wants to test the FA market. it is not the fault of the sox not to improve, even if it means not signing Jeff S. i would go 2 yrs, 26 per Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 4 years 50-60 I'd at least consider it. I'm not a fan of the signing however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaySox Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If he can come at a decent price, i say go for him. We're trying to win this year right? Imagine a rotation of Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, Shields and hopefully eventually Rodon... holy cow. heck, with a rotation like that 1-4 i wouldn't even complain about a John Danks as the 5th starter. There would be a lot less pressure on Rodon and the organization to rush him into the rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (RaySox @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 04:59 PM) If he can come at a decent price, i say go for him. We're trying to win this year right? Imagine a rotation of Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, Shields and hopefully eventually Rodon... holy cow. heck, with a rotation like that 1-4 i wouldn't even complain about a John Danks as the 5th starter. There would be a lot less pressure on Rodon and the organization to rush him into the rotation. 2/40M sounds pretty juicy actually. Even less maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Feb 3, 2015 -> 06:29 PM) 2/40M sounds pretty juicy actually. Even less maybe? That actually sounds like "No he will not take a physical before signing this contract" money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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