2015-16 NCAA Football Thread

[fathom]

Clearly the playoff committee doesn't disagree. And about your point, what if a team has 4 losses but has 7 top ten wins? They would have by far the best quality of wins, but they'd have no chance at the playoff. Clearly it does matter. What if two teams both have one loss, but team A lost by 1 in overtime on the road to the #1 ranked team, and team B lost by 25 to an unranked foe at home? Team B has beaten 3 top 25 teams, while Team A has defeated 2. Who is more deserving in that scenario?

 

Also, I did address the wins, I said ND was 7-1 against the 14th SOS. But it will sort itself out anyway. If Baylor/TCU/Ok State/MSU all win out, their resume will be better than ND's. Not sure about Bama though.

 

Bama is going to end up with best SOS if they win out. They are easily in if they win out

[OmarComing25]

Bama is going to end up with best SOS if they win out. They are easily in if they win out

Yeah I meant that even if the current undefeated teams win out, they still might not have a better resume than a 1-loss Bama.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Well I think everyone will disagree with you. Still also ignoring the point. No one cares about wins over Rice just as nobody should care losing to the number 1 team. What people should care about is the quality teams you've beaten.

 

I may disagree with saying USC and Navy are great wins but it's way, way more compelling of an argument to me than "But we played a team close!" I'd at least go down that right if I were a notre dame fan.

 

Wrong. I think it's more the opposite that more people will disagree with you.

 

ND losing to Clemson by 2, UM losing to MSU on the last play, Florida losing by a TD on the road to LSU etc are much more impressive than teams beating up on schools like Army, Georgia State and Kansas. I mean what says more about a team, barely losing by 2 on the road to the #1 team in the country, or barely surviving at home to NIU?

 

It's not black and white like you seem to believe. Obviously, a team losing 3 games by 1 point each should not be in over an undefeated school, but quality of play does make a difference in all games played.

 

"What people should care about is the quality teams you've beaten."

 

Yes, agreed, but people already do that. But when you have two teams both with 1 loss and a similar resume in terms of teams defeated, how and under what circumstances those teams suffered their defeat absolutely matters.

 

Edited November 4, 2015 by ChiSox_Sonix

[Buehrle>Wood]

You didn't read what I posted. I don't care about wins vs low level teams either. The fact is quality wins like perhaps vs USC and Navy are going to do a lot, lot9 more to strengthen ND's resume than any loss.

 

If two teams are so razor tight, fine compare the losses. But guess what? That exact scenario played out last year. The team with by far the most "impressive loss" (3 point loss @5 team) finished 6th (last of the teams in playoff discussion) because the selection committee didn't give a s***. The team with the worst loss got into the playoff. Who teams beat won out.

Edited November 4, 2015 by Buehrle>Wood

[cabiness42]

#3 SOS. The undefeated Big 12 teams haven't played anyone besides Texas Tech yet and Michigan State has looked pretty poor in a lot of their wins. I like that the committee takes into account strength of schedule and how teams look in their wins instead of just overall record, otherwise everyone would just schedule cupcakes. People are too focused on just top 25 teams as well. Hypothetically, a team that beat the #31, #29, and #27 teams has a better resume than the team that beat the #94, #51, and #17 teams.

 

 

#14 SOS and lost to the #1 ranked team by two points on the road, how is that a bad resume? They might not necessarily deserve to be #5 but it's really not that egregious, maybe a few spots too high.

 

I would rank a couple more of the undefeated teams ahead of ND, but Bama and ND clearly have the two best resumes of 1-loss teams.

 

Navy and Temple have their only loss to ND.

Despite 3 losses, USC is very high in the computer ratings and handed Utah their only loss.

Despite sub-500 records, Texas and Georgia Tech have both beaten Top 15 teams.

 

Also, this committee doesn't operate like the AP/Coaches poll where you keep your spot as long as you win. Any Big 12 team that stays undefeated for a couple more weeks will jump ahead of ND once they start playing each other.

 

I realize that you can't always predict who is going to be good in your conference, but the Big 12 is killing itself due to none of its top 4 teams playing each other before November 7.

[cabiness42]

Well I think everyone will disagree with you. Still also ignoring the point. No one cares about wins over Rice just as nobody should care losing to the number 1 team. What people should care about is the quality teams you've beaten.

 

I may disagree with saying USC and Navy are great wins but it's way, way more compelling of an argument to me than "But we played a team close!" I'd at least go down that right if I were a notre dame fan.

 

I think both matter. Who you've beaten is important, and several wins over above average but not great teams like Navy, USC, Temple add up more than a win over one really good team and the rest being bottom feeders. Still, Clemson remaining undefeated helps as it makes the loss look less bad.

 

In the end, ND has to beat Stanford (as well as not get upset at Pitt) to have a chance. That clinches being above anybody in the PAC-12. Then, ND also needs the Big 12 champ to have either two losses, or be a 1-loss Oklahoma or OSU team. I don't think ND ends up ranked ahead of a 1-loss TCU or Baylor. Finally, they need there to be no 1-loss SEC non-champions. Alabama beating LSU would leave the door open for both to end up ranked ahead of a 1-loss ND.

 

Despite the #5 ranking right now, there are a lot of things that have to go ND's way to get into the playoff.

[RockRaines]

Crazy that a 1 loss Bama team ranks over some undefeated power conference teams. I do think Bama is playing like one of the best 4 teams in the country, so in many cases, I actually think they got it right, but hard to do that when you have a field of 4. If the field was 8, I have an easier time giving it to the better team with a loss vs. a power conference team without a loss.

Yes, in truth its a mistake since their resume isnt even as good as MSU at the moment, but it doesnt matter. Everything will even out eventually.

[OmarComing25]

Yes, in truth its a mistake since their resume isnt even as good as MSU at the moment, but it doesnt matter. Everything will even out eventually.

I don't know about that. @Michigan is the best win of the two, but Wisconsin, Arkansas, Tennessee, and A&M are all at least on par with or better than the Oregon win (maybe not Arkansas/Tennessee, but it's not that big a drop-off, especially if you compare them to MSU's 3rd best win). Michigan State has also been taken down to the wire multiple times by some pretty bad teams, so they should rightfully be punished for that. All the other metrics favor Bama by a decent margin too. But you're right, it will all even out eventually. Even if you want to argue that MSU's resume is better right now, if Bama beats LSU that'll no longer be true. But if MSU wins out they'll be in, barring there being 2-3 other undefeated conference champions as well.

Edited November 4, 2015 by OmarComing25

[RockRaines]

I don't know about that. @Michigan is the best win of the two, but Wisconsin, Arkansas, Tennessee, and A&M are all at least on par with or better than the Oregon win (maybe not Arkansas/Tennessee, but it's not that big a drop-off, especially if you compare them to MSU's 3rd best win). Michigan State has also been taken down to the wire multiple times by some pretty bad teams, so they should rightfully be punished for that. All the other metrics favor Bama by a decent margin too. But you're right, it will all even out eventually. Even if you want to argue that MSU's resume is better right now, if Bama beats LSU that'll no longer be true. But if MSU wins out they'll be in, barring there being 2-3 other undefeated conference champions as well.

As of now MSU has the best win and no losses. Their resume is better. It wont stay that way though which is why coming out with "rankings" this early is dumb.

[OmarComing25]

As of now MSU has the best win and no losses. Their resume is better. It wont stay that way though which is why coming out with "rankings" this early is dumb.

Having the best win doesn't mean as much if all the rest of your wins are collectively far inferior, like I said Bama has 4 wins arguably better than MSU's 2nd best win, and they've at least looked dominate at times, where MSU hasn't. I get the no losses argument but to me nearly losing to Purdue is almost as damning as a loss, not to mention going down to the wire with Rutgers. How you win matters.

Edited November 4, 2015 by OmarComing25

[fathom]

Having the best win doesn't mean as much if all the rest of your wins are collectively far inferior, like I said Bama has 4 wins arguably better than MSU's 2nd best win, and they've at least looked dominate at times, where MSU hasn't. I get the no losses argument but to me nearly losing to Purdue is almost as damning as a loss, not to mention going down to the wire with Rutgers. How you win matters.

 

To play devil's advocate, then why isn't ND being punished for needing a miracle to win at UVa? I agree with rock, it feels like Michigan St. is receiving too little credit for winning at Michigan. To me, the team that looked the most impressive in any top win this year was Florida destroying Ole Miss.

Edited November 4, 2015 by fathom

[cabiness42]

To play devil's advocate, then why isn't ND being punished for needing a miracle to win at UVa? I agree with rock, it feels like Michigan St. is receiving too little credit for winning at Michigan. To me, the team that looked the most impressive in any top win this year was Florida destroying Ole Miss.

 

I would have put MSU ahead of ND and maybe even Alabama. Doesn't matter a whole lot though, if MSU beats OSU they'll jump over both.

[RockRaines]

Having the best win doesn't mean as much if all the rest of your wins are collectively far inferior, like I said Bama has 4 wins arguably better than MSU's 2nd best win, and they've at least looked dominate at times, where MSU hasn't. I get the no losses argument but to me nearly losing to Purdue is almost as damning as a loss, not to mention going down to the wire with Rutgers. How you win matters.

Eh, not really. Plus Bama has "close wins" or "near losses" vs inferior opponents as well, and they have an actual loss. Bama got into the 4 team initial ranking because they are Bama. They are 3rd in their own division but somehow a top 4 team in the playoff ranking.

 

 

[fathom]

I would have put MSU ahead of ND and maybe even Alabama. Doesn't matter a whole lot though, if MSU beats OSU they'll jump over both.

 

Yep, your post above about how a lot has to go ND's way to make it was very well written. If a team from B10 or B12 goes undefeated, they're definitely in.

[OmarComing25]

To play devil's advocate, then why isn't ND being punished for needing a miracle to win at UVa? I agree with rock, it feels like Michigan St. is receiving too little credit for winning at Michigan. To me, the team that looked the most impressive in any top win this year was Florida destroying Ole Miss.

I agree with you, and Florida is probably currently more deserving than Bama, but the committee does say they're trying to pick the 4 best teams, not necessarily the most deserving. tOSU wasn't necessarily more deserving over TCU/Baylor last year, but it was clear they were a top 4 team after that complete dismantling of Wisconsin. Of course, this is all very subjective. There's never going to be an objective way to pick the 4 best teams.

Edited November 4, 2015 by OmarComing25

[RockRaines]

I agree with you, and Florida is probably currently more deserving than Bama, but the committee does say they're trying to pick the 4 best teams, not necessarily the most deserving. tOSU wasn't necessarily more deserving over TCU/Baylor last year, but it was clear they were a top 4 team after that complete dismantling of Wisconsin. Of course, this is all very subjective. There's never going to be an objective way to pick the 4 best teams.

Better SOS, wins and a conference title. So, yeah.

[cabiness42]

Better SOS, wins and a conference title. So, yeah.

 

The committee knew damn well that if they put in a 1-loss Baylor who played SMU, Buffalo and an FCS team in non-conference over an Ohio State team whose only loss was to Virginia Tech, that teams would be scrambling to get the weakest non-conference schedules possible.

 

I get that the Big 12 plays 9 conference games which includes everybody, but if Baylor had just played and beaten someone like Indiana or Vanderbilt instead of that FCS team, they'd have been in.

[danman31]

Everyone stop everything, Mizzou actually scored a touchdown! Christ, they're pathetic.

[LittleHurt05]

Everyone stop everything, Mizzou actually scored a touchdown! Christ, they're pathetic.

 

When they played Vandy, the over under was like 34 which is unheard of, even in the NFL. The Dilfer Ravens vs Grossman Bears would have an O/U of 37 based on defensive TD potential

[danman31]

When they played Vandy, the over under was like 34 which is unheard of, even in the NFL. The Dilfer Ravens vs Grossman Bears would have an O/U of 37 based on defensive TD potential

Right, and it was wayyy under. The defense (which is having a pretty poor game tonight) is the only thing that keeps them from getting totally slaughtered every game. It has to be the worst offense in the country.

[cabiness42]

Weird fact: Tomorrow is ND's first pre-3:30 ET kickoff since 9/28/2011, which was also at Pitt.

[LittleHurt05]

Weird fact: Tomorrow is ND's first pre-3:30 ET kickoff since 9/28/2011, which was also at Pitt.

 

That probably has something to do with the fact that they have their own TV contract.

[whitesoxfan99]

Lol that Mike Riley lost to this garbage Purdue team.

[Brian]

Northwesterning

[OmarComing25]

Vanderbilt pulled a Jacksonville State.