Cafardo's manager ranking

[Reddy]

Take a guy like Paul Konerko. I don't care how hot he was, I wouldn't send him out there against Tim Wakefield. Not only couldn't he hit the guy, it seems like every time he tried, he ended up in a two week slump afterwards.

That's the kicker. Why would you put your hot hitter in against someone he struggles against? Why would you want to ruin the rhythm or confidence he's currently riding by an 0-4 game?

[southsider2k5]

That's the kicker. Why would you put your hot hitter in against someone he struggles against? Why would you want to ruin the rhythm or confidence he's currently riding by an 0-4 game?

 

And on the converse side, I don't care who is hot in front of him, or how cold he isn't, I wouldn't have missed a chance to put Ron Kittle out there against Bert Blyleven.

[brett05]

I'm glad you said that, because actually, his bullpen management has been some of the best in all of baseball

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To see the actual statistical facts, check out the article. RV did as well as he could've last year with the bullpen we had.

Perfect Hindsight and Bullpen Management - Baseball Prospectus

I can't read it all, but that said I was critical during the season, not just post.

[brett05]

Yea the reason you can't explain it is because it is a completely nonsensical ... statement to begin with.

I suggest you go back to agreeing to disagree

Edited February 17, 2015 by brett05

[lasttriptotulsa]

I suggest you go back to agreeing to disagree

 

I suggest you move along to WSI.

[Reddy]

And on the converse side, I don't care who is hot in front of him, or how cold he isn't, I wouldn't have missed a chance to put Ron Kittle out there against Bert Blyleven.

absolutely

 

[brett05]

I suggest you move along to WSI.

Thanks for letting me know who you are.

 

Is there an ignore feature on this site?

[Reddy]

I can't read it all, but that said I was critical during the season, not just post.

 

it doesn't matter when you were critical, the statistical analysis says you were wrong, and the RV was one of the best in the league at managing his bullpen.

[brett05]

it doesn't matter when you were critical, the statistical analysis says you were wrong, and the RV was one of the best in the league at managing his bullpen.

The analysis that I can't see????

[witesoxfan]

By definition it would be the end to the first and the beginning of the second.

 

It seems quite trivial to section them off like that. If a guy is hot, a guy is hot, and if he's not, then he's not.

 

Thanks for letting me know who you are.

 

Is there an ignore feature on this site?

 

click on user name -> options drop down option -> ignore user

[Reddy]

The analysis that I can't see????

ahhh I see, I misinterpreted your last post. It's subscriber only, huh? Ok well essentially the data shows that Robin was exceptionally good at riding the hot hand, playing his (crappy) relievers in the best spots to maximize their success, and didn't simply play the guys with the highest salaries and track records. (Belly + Lindstrom) A lot of managers fall into that trap - you just don't watch their games as religiously as the Sox.

 

Given your position on riding hot hitters, you should applaud RV for his bullpen use of riding the hot pitchers, and instead of continuing to ride someone when they're playing poorly because of their track record, he made changes when needed.

Edited February 17, 2015 by Reddy

[brett05]

It seems quite trivial to section them off like that. If a guy is hot, a guy is hot, and if he's not, then he's not.

 

 

 

click on user name -> options drop down option -> ignore user

 

 

I'm not getting an options. I get like a send message, etc

[brett05]

ahhh I see, I misinterpreted your last post. It's subscriber only, huh? Ok well essentially the data shows that Robin was exceptionally good at riding the hot hand, playing his (crappy) relievers in the best spots to maximize their success, and didn't simply play the guys with the highest salaries and track records. (Belly + Lindstrom) A lot of managers fall into that trap - you just don't watch their games as religiously as the Sox.

 

Given your position on riding hot hitters, you should applaud RV for his bullpen use of riding the hot pitchers, and instead of continuing to ride someone when they're playing poorly because of their track record, he made changes when needed.

 

 

If I could see the data perhaps I'd change my tune. But from the quote you used that indicated 20/20 hindsight (aka season ending) I was critical all season long. I do not think he did what was best even though what he has was pretty much a load of trash.

[brett05]

I'm not getting an options. I get like a send message, etc

 

 

I went to my profile and then managed the ignored users list. Thanks whitesoxfan

Edited February 17, 2015 by brett05

[Reddy]

If I could see the data perhaps I'd change my tune. But from the quote you used that indicated 20/20 hindsight (aka season ending) I was critical all season long. I do not think he did what was best even though what he has was pretty much a load of trash.

Would you like me to explain this graphic or do you understand what it shows?

 

 

EDIT: Oh, and before you get off on the title of the graph, it's the name of the article, in which RV and the Sox are the "good example" of bullpen management, compared to Fredi Gonzalez's terrible management of the bullpen.

Edited February 17, 2015 by Reddy

[brett05]

Would you like me to explain this graphic or do you understand what it shows?

 

 

EDIT: Oh, and before you get off on the title of the graph, it's the name of the article, in which RV and the Sox are the "good example" of bullpen management, compared to Fredi Gonzalez's terrible management of the bullpen.

Please do explain, including the X and Y values.

[Eminor3rd]

2014 he really didn't play.

2013 he stunk

2012 better left

 

In general he stinks. How many times did he play back to back games with a hit in three years? Without looking I am going with none.

 

What? No he didn't. Look past his batting average. He gets on bases more than Adam Eaton, and puts 8-10 homers up in 200 at bats.

Edited February 17, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

Please do explain, including the X and Y values.

+

The X axis is games, essentially. The Y axis is leverage index when entering, which is basically a measure of how important the situation was when Robin called the pitcher in. If the Y value is high, it means Robin is depending upon that guy a lot.

 

What this graph shows (by being very wavy) is that Robin was very quick to exile a guy to a crappy role if he was bad, and elevate a new guy to a better role until he started sucking.

[Reddy]

Please do explain, including the X and Y values.

 

X axis is 27-game blocks, so 1 is thru 27 games, 2 is thru 54, etc, up through 162 games.

 

Y axis is leverage of the situation when the player is put into the game.

 

At the beginning of the season, Belly wasn't the closer, became the closer (so he goes up on the graph - higher leverage) because he was pitching well, then as he sucked, he was removed from those high lev positions as Petricka gained ground. Essentially, all of the lines on the graph coincide with that pitchers' performance last year. As they did better, or worse, they were put in higher or lower leverage situations respectively.

 

If you don't trust that I'm just telling you what the article says, I guess you could look through the splits for each of those pitchers and compare the splits to the graph, but I can save you the time and tell you that it matches pretty damn closely.

 

Again, it doesn't matter whether you were critical during or after the season, or both, because you'd actually be statistically wrong regardless.

[Reddy]

to compare, Buck Showalter (considered a great manager - especially last year), was trash with bullpen management.

 

 

He used Evan Meek as if he were a top-tier reliever almost all season long, based purely on a solid spring training, even though he was the WORST reliever on the O's. It took Showalter almost 2/3 of the season to realize it.

 

Yikes.

[brett05]

Thanks. The graphs makes sense. I guess my beef would be he stuck with guys way too long as the graph shows.

[Reddy]

Thanks. The graphs makes sense. I guess my beef would be he stuck with guys way too long as the graph shows.

Maybe so. But the point is that he did better than any other manager in baseball in this regard last year. So if you're going to be critical of his bullpen management that's fine, but there was truly no better alternative in 2014. He was the best.

 

The jury's out on these metrics over a long period of time - no one's done that analysis yet - but my whole thing is that I'd prefer to give RV the benefit of the doubt since 1) he's actually been much better than he's gotten credit for and 2) that he's yet to have a good team to manage. That changes this year. I'm very interested to see what he does with a good team.

 

I don't think he deserves a 20th ranking, given his bullpen management was better than everyone else's, and that's a huge percentage of the job.

[Dick Allen]

Maybe so. But the point is that he did better than any other manager in baseball in this regard last year. So if you're going to be critical of his bullpen management that's fine, but there was truly no better alternative in 2014. He was the best.

 

The jury's out on these metrics over a long period of time - no one's done that analysis yet - but my whole thing is that I'd prefer to give RV the benefit of the doubt since 1) he's actually been much better than he's gotten credit for and 2) that he's yet to have a good team to manage. That changes this year. I'm very interested to see what he does with a good team.

 

I don't think he deserves a 20th ranking, given his bullpen management was better than everyone else's, and that's a huge percentage of the job.

The one problem with this, and I am a Robin fan, is it does favor managers that don't really have guys who are established. In other words, Robertson is going to have a much longer hook if he all of a sudden sucks this year. Duke is going to have to suck longer than the guys last year before losing his role. It's easier to yank a Belisario than a $14 million a year Robertson. But the numbers do suggest all the complaining about Robin and the bullpen last year was silly. He did what he could. Sometimes you actually have to have guys who can get outs on the mound.

[Reddy]

The one problem with this, and I am a Robin fan, is it does favor managers that don't really have guys who are established. In other words, Robertson is going to have a much longer hook if he all of a sudden sucks this year. Duke is going to have to suck longer than the guys last year before losing his role. It's easier to yank a Belisario than a $14 million a year Robertson. But the numbers do suggest all the complaining about Robin and the bullpen last year was silly. He did what he could. Sometimes you actually have to have guys who can get outs on the mound.

 

For once, we agree completely. That's why this year will be much more interesting, and a better true indicator of his skill as a manager.

 

[Jose Abreu]

One thing he did poorly was deciding when to pull starters. One example would be the game against the Angels where Sale had thrown a lot of pitches and was dominant, then had a bad inning. But Robin decides to send him back out and he ends up giving up a grand slam to Trout that nightmare inning.