Ventura "I expect us to make the playoffs"

[shysocks]

To put it in perspective, the difference from 2005 (and our overachieving bullpen) and 2006 (bullpen regression to the mean) was 9 wins.

 

That's the kind of output we'd need this year to hit 90 wins based on our players' track records IMO.

I don't understand. Are you attributing the 9-win decrease completely to the bullpen? That's way off.

[LittleHurt05]

To put it in perspective, the difference from 2005 (and our overachieving bullpen) and 2006 (bullpen regression to the mean) was 9 wins.

 

That's the kind of output we'd need this year to hit 90 wins based on our players' track records IMO.

 

Sure the bullpen regressed to the mean, but all 4 returning starters saw big jumps in their ERA from 2005 to 2006. They have just as much to do with the 9 win decrease as the bullpen, if not more.

 

Mark Buehrle - 2005: 3.12 ERA

2006: 4.99 ERA

Freddy Garcia - 2005: 3.87 ERA

2006: 4.53 ERA

Jon Garland - 2005: 3.50 ERA

2006: 4.51 ERA

Jose Contreras - 2005: 3.61 ERA

2006: 4.27 ERA

 

[hi8is]

That's a whole lot of money to wager on Chris Sale's left elbow's health.

That is absolutely my biggest concern -- likely will be for his entire career with us.

[Real]

I love the Sox, but there's no way Robin should be expecting playoffs with this club. Sox have to come out and play ball and reverse the mojo from the last few horrific seasons.

 

why did you reply to his post with this comment when your reply had nothing to do with what he said?

 

deflection

[Reddy]

I don't understand. Are you attributing the 9-win decrease completely to the bullpen? That's way off.

Nope - yeah I see how it came off that way. The bullpen was just my example, but yes the rotation regressed hard, too. But that's my point. Our team - on paper - shouldn't have been so good in '05, but we miraculously got career years out of almost every pitcher! We would need something similar (maybe not as drastic, but similar) this year to not end up in the low to mid 80s, and to reach the levels a lot of folks seem to be expecting.

Edited February 21, 2015 by Reddy

[Balta1701]

Sure the bullpen regressed to the mean, but all 4 returning starters saw big jumps in their ERA from 2005 to 2006. They have just as much to do with the 9 win decrease as the bullpen, if not more.

 

Mark Buehrle - 2005: 3.12 ERA

2006: 4.99 ERA

Freddy Garcia - 2005: 3.87 ERA

2006: 4.53 ERA

Jon Garland - 2005: 3.50 ERA

2006: 4.51 ERA

Jose Contreras - 2005: 3.61 ERA

2006: 4.27 ERA

Plus we spent half the season playing with only 8 players on defense for no good reason.

[shysocks]

Nope - yeah I see how it came off that way. The bullpen was just my example, but yes the rotation regressed hard, too. But that's my point. Our team - on paper - shouldn't have been so good in '05, but we miraculously got career years out of almost every pitcher! We would need something similar (maybe not as drastic, but similar) this year to not end up in the low to mid 80s, and to reach the levels a lot of folks seem to be expecting.

Okay, thanks for clearing that up. To me it'll be more important to get that type of jump from the offense than the bullpen. If the six-man unit of Robertson-Duke-Petricka-Putnam-Jennings-Guerra all do essentially what they did last season then we have a decent bullpen. That sounds like it's asking somewhat a lot, but it's not asking for thaaat much.

 

What we cannot make the playoffs without is a sprinkle of the following:

Avisail breaks out

Gillaspie, and our second baseman, are legitimate starters

Abreu is still top-5

 

Then throw in Danks and/or Noesi beating the projections. I'm not even sure where I'm disagreeing with you at this point. I guess it's that career years out of the bullpen = not essential to our playoff chances.

[Balta1701]

Okay, thanks for clearing that up. To me it'll be more important to get that type of jump from the offense than the bullpen. If the six-man unit of Robertson-Duke-Petricka-Putnam-Jennings-Guerra all do essentially what they did last season then we have a decent bullpen. That sounds like it's asking somewhat a lot, but it's not asking for thaaat much.

 

What we cannot make the playoffs without is a sprinkle of the following:

Avisail breaks out

Gillaspie, and our second baseman, are legitimate starters

Abreu is still top-5

 

Then throw in Danks and/or Noesi beating the projections. I'm not even sure where I'm disagreeing with you at this point. I guess it's that career years out of the bullpen = not essential to our playoff chances.

Chris Sale staying healthy is, to me, more important than any of the things you listed other than the Abreu part. All those could happen, Chris gives us 125 innings and we're still not a playoff team.

[shysocks]

Chris Sale staying healthy is, to me, more important than any of the things you listed other than the Abreu part. All those could happen, Chris gives us 125 innings and we're still not a playoff team.

I'm talking about performance - it's a given that we need health.

 

And that's the second time in a very short time in this thread that you've referenced, somewhat out of nowhere, possible injury to Sale. Is there something leading you to think he'll get hurt, other than the #analysis we've been hearing from people for years about how he'll always get hurt?

[Balta1701]

I'm talking about performance - it's a given that we need health.

 

And that's the second time in a very short time in this thread that you've referenced, somewhat out of nowhere, possible injury to Sale. Is there something leading you to think he'll get hurt, other than the #analysis we've been hearing from people for years about how he'll always get hurt?

He went down for what, 4 weeks last year with a sore elbow, and that was the 2nd time in 3 years he's missed games with a sore elbow?

 

He's so good that I'd put money on him winning the cy young this year, and I see only 1 thing stopping that from happening - the disabled list. If he pitches 200+ innings this year, he's the best starter in the AL based on how much he improved last year.

 

Trading for a guy with one year left on his deal makes sense if Chris Sale is mostly healthy this year. You put Chris in the playoffs and he can do what Bumgarner did last year...and we all know that. But outside of Robin trying to kill Abreu (like he did in May of last year playing him 3 games in a row after this fool named Robin Ventura said he needed a day or two off), Chris also my biggest worry for the year as well. He can flat out carry a playoff team or his elbow could be the reason we don't make it.

[shysocks]

He went down for what, 4 weeks last year with a sore elbow, and that was the 2nd time in 3 years he's missed games with a sore elbow?

 

He's so good that I'd put money on him winning the cy young this year, and I see only 1 thing stopping that from happening - the disabled list. If he pitches 200+ innings this year, he's the best starter in the AL based on how much he improved last year.

 

Trading for a guy with one year left on his deal makes sense if Chris Sale is mostly healthy this year. You put Chris in the playoffs and he can do what Bumgarner did last year...and we all know that. But outside of Robin trying to kill Abreu (like he did in May of last year playing him 3 games in a row after this fool named Robin Ventura said he needed a day or two off), Chris also my biggest worry for the year as well. He can flat out carry a playoff team or his elbow could be the reason we don't make it.

He missed one start in 2012, had a healthy 2013 and missed a month last year. That's not such a bad track record. I'm always worried about health, especially when the team is thin, but to me Sale is no more likely to get hurt than any other pitcher.

[LDF]

He missed one start in 2012, had a healthy 2013 and missed a month last year. That's not such a bad track record. I'm always worried about health, especially when the team is thin, but to me Sale is no more likely to get hurt than any other pitcher.

 

compared to what???

 

the sox needs to trade for a sp even if its a 1 yr contract, pretty much like jeff s. this season is ripe for a major run for a world series. this team needs backups, known commodities.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Something that's been interesting in reviewing MLB stats from last year is that Gillaspie was top 30 in OPS in the AL. To me, 2nd base is way more of a concern than 3rd is, especially since there are platoon options now for Gillaspie.

Sometime I get the questions about Gillaspie and sometimes I don't. It's like everyone forgot the first 4 months of the season when he was spraying line drives all over the field batting as high as .326. That is not so easy to do in this day and age with all the shifting that's going on. It sucks he couldn't finish strong but that pace he was on just wasn't sustainable . Would ve been nice if the last 2 months weren't so bad but .282 isn't bad and as you mentioned his OPS was good despite not hitting many HR's.

 

I really think half of it is his blah personality makes people just feel blah about him.

[shysocks]

compared to what???

 

the sox needs to trade for a sp even if its a 1 yr contract, pretty much like jeff s. this season is ripe for a major run for a world series. this team needs backups, known commodities.

Compared to a lot of guys. Compared to the notion that he's injury prone. 25 guys have thrown more innings than Chris Sale since he became a starter. He's qualified for the ERA title each of the three years.

[Texsox]

If my manager continually gave canned bulls*** answers like that, I'd lose a hell of a lot of respect very quickly.

 

Really? Popovich seems to have made that work for him. I'm more interested in what the manager is doing and what is happening on the field. Some people do like the Ozzie style press parties.

[LDF]

Compared to a lot of guys. Compared to the notion that he's injury prone. 25 guys have thrown more innings than Chris Sale since he became a starter. He's qualified for the ERA title each of the three years.

 

a nice simple question with a follow up.

 

do you think chris sale is injury prone???

 

how would you injury prone???

[Dick Allen]

Really? Popovich seems to have made that work for him. I'm more interested in what the manager is doing and what is happening on the field. Some people do like the Ozzie style press parties.

Popovich doesn't have to sell anything. The White Sox do. Not only to their fans, but to their players. I don't really know if the organization expects to win. Hahn said himself at Soxfest they still are not where they want to be, but they have to think they can win.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Kyyle23]

Pop also doesn't give canned bulls*** answers. He gives no answers, at all. They ask a question and he ignores it

[Rowand44]

He missed one start in 2012, had a healthy 2013 and missed a month last year. That's not such a bad track record. I'm always worried about health, especially when the team is thin, but to me Sale is no more likely to get hurt than any other pitcher.

Quoted for f***in truth. I get that people are always going to be worried about Chris but the only reason he's an injury risk is because he's a pitcher, just like every other one.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Rowand44

[shysocks]

do you think chris sale is injury prone???

No.

 

how would you [define] injury prone???

A guy who would surprise you if he made it through a full season. Some guys get the label unfairly because they have just have bad luck with unrelated ailments every year after year (a sprained ankle here, a line drive off the face there). Others you worry more about because their hamstring acts up every season. Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Brandon McCarthy, Rich Harden years ago. Sale has one DL trip in his career and doesn't belong in a category with these guys.

[Balta1701]

Compared to a lot of guys. Compared to the notion that he's injury prone. 25 guys have thrown more innings than Chris Sale since he became a starter. He's qualified for the ERA title each of the three years.

This is a guy who has been an MLB starter for 3 seasons and has missed games complaining specifically about elbow soreness in 2 of them. At the least it's a worry enough that we shouldn't try to push him so hard we find his breaking point.

[Dick Allen]

This is a guy who has been an MLB starter for 3 seasons and has missed games complaining specifically about elbow soreness in 2 of them. At the least it's a worry enough that we shouldn't try to push him so hard we find his breaking point.

Yet you suggest if the White Sox make the postseason, they push him like Madison Bumgarner.

[Balta1701]

Yet you suggest if the White Sox make the postseason, they push him like Madison Bumgarner.

Abso-f***ing-lutely. That's the point of all this, winning a title. Get him there and he can do that. Getting him there is the challenge.

[Balta1701]

We don't have to be nuts about it with him either, just "reasonable" stuff. If the guy has labored through 6 innings or loaded the bases in the last inning and just barely got out of it...we're paying the bullpen a ton of money this year. If he's thrown an 8 inning shutout but he's already at or near his high mark on the year for pitches in a game...we're paying a guy $10 million this year to get those last 3 outs. If we have an offday, yes it would be nice to skip the 5th starter and put Chris out there again, but just give Chris the extra day of rest. Just don't be nuts about overworking him during the regular season.

[Dick Allen]

Abso-f***ing-lutely. That's the point of all this, winning a title. Get him there and he can do that. Getting him there is the challenge.

 

But what if they did that and they lost and Sale was never the same again?

 

Getting to the playoffs is a challenge. Winning the WS a bigger one for sure, but you have to get there to have a chance. Bumgarner threw 52 postseason innings last year. It paid off. But what if the Giants didn't win? I would bet there would be people saying Bochy throwing him out there so much was dumb.

 

He is going to get his days off during the season. How many times has he pitched since becoming a starter on less than 4 days rest? The answer is less than one.

 

Anyway, if the White Sox make the playoffs, it probably means Samardzija was really good and Rodon was good. I doubt they would have as many 2 and 3 inning performances in the postseason from their starters as the 2014 Giants.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Dick Allen