2015-2016 NFL Thread

[Soxbadger]

The bears would have drafted Leonard williams if there, but just because your DE goes does not mean you still draft your next DE.

 

We saw how that works out, his name was Michael Haynes.

 

Get dynamic talent, the rest works itself out.

 

Im not sure that Michael Haynes or defensive ends have anything to do with the fact that historically speaking the most productive wr's have not been picked in the top 10. Thats not an opinion piece, that is an actual fact. So while White may turn into the best wr ever, historically its the guys who are picked later than 10 who go on to become the top players.

 

Maybe the Bears will be ahead of the curve, but guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans and Calvin Johnson all had multiple 800 yard + seasons. (Those were the only 4 top 10 wrs who were in the top 20 for yards last year). Its not that Im against drafting a WR, I just think that when you take "Bears" blinders off you have to acknowledge that top 10 wrs are historically a risky pick and there is not a lot of Super Bowl teams that were built on a foundation of one. Let alone when you talk about a guy with 1 productive season.

 

Hope that Kevin White becomes the best wr ever, but acting like taking a wr that high is a safe bet is pretty faulty.

[StrangeSox]

historically its the guys who are picked later than 10 who go on to become the top players.

 

Are you accounting for the fact that's there's several hundred more picks after the top 10 than there are top 10 picks?

[Soxbadger]

Are you accounting for the fact that's there's several hundred more picks after the top 10 than there are top 10 picks?

 

Of course. Which is why I consistently said the Bears should trade down and accumulate picks.

[GoSox05]

Of course. Which is why I consistently said the Bears should trade down and accumulate picks.

 

Maybe they wanted to and no one wanted to trade up.

 

 

[bmags]

There was clearly so much interest in trading up last night, surprised more didn't take advantage!

[cabiness42]

Maybe they wanted to and no one wanted to trade up.

 

Unless there is a QB available at your pick, teams don't seem to be very willing to trade up anymore.

[StrangeSox]

because everyone seems to know that the right move is to get out of the top ten, who wants to give up picks to move up into it?

[Soxbadger]

Except for the Chargers traded up 2 spots for a RB.

 

If Kevin White is as spectacular and a cant miss as some are portraying him, there certainly had to be a team willing to give up something for the chance to draft him. I mean the Falcons traded 5 picks (including 2 firsts) for the 6th pick to take Julio. Not saying the Bears would get all of that, but Im sure there were offers.

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

Except for the Chargers traded up 2 spots for a RB.

 

If Kevin White is as spectacular and a cant miss as some are portraying him, there certainly had to be a team willing to give up something for the chance to draft him. I mean the Falcons traded 5 picks (including 2 firsts) for the 6th pick to take Julio. Not saying the Bears would get all of that, but Im sure there were offers.

 

The problem there is this is a really deep WR class. Yes, White is clearly a cut above the rest but are you gonna give up a big package when you can still get a pretty good WR down where you're already at?

[bmags]

I don't think anyone is saying Kevin White is can't miss, I think what people are saying is when 12 months of scouting has identified Kevin White as the top prospect for your organization, should you instead draft a lower ranked player at 7 for need/belief that no successful organization wastes first round picks on receivers despite evidence to the contrary.

[Dick Allen]

Of course. Which is why I consistently said the Bears should trade down and accumulate picks.

Dan Pompei said they were getting no offers.

[Soxbadger]

The problem there is this is a really deep WR class. Yes, White is clearly a cut above the rest but are you gonna give up a big package when you can still get a pretty good WR down where you're already at?

 

Once again, i dont think the Bears were going to get a "Herschel Walker" package, but I do believe that the Bears could have found a team somewhere willing to deal to get a top talent. Maybe not the best deal ever, but more picks is generally a good policy given that the Bears have a lot of issues.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

Im not sure that Michael Haynes or defensive ends have anything to do with the fact that historically speaking the most productive wr's have not been picked in the top 10. Thats not an opinion piece, that is an actual fact. So while White may turn into the best wr ever, historically its the guys who are picked later than 10 who go on to become the top players.

 

Maybe the Bears will be ahead of the curve, but guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans and Calvin Johnson all had multiple 800 yard + seasons. (Those were the only 4 top 10 wrs who were in the top 20 for yards last year). Its not that Im against drafting a WR, I just think that when you take "Bears" blinders off you have to acknowledge that top 10 wrs are historically a risky pick and there is not a lot of Super Bowl teams that were built on a foundation of one. Let alone when you talk about a guy with 1 productive season.

 

Hope that Kevin White becomes the best wr ever, but acting like taking a wr that high is a safe bet is pretty faulty.

So those were the only 4 in the top 20...but out of that era of players drafted, what other ones taken in top 10 didn't show up on that list?

[Soxbadger]

Dan Pompei said they were getting no offers.

 

I cant seem to find this anywhere. The only thing close Ive found is:

 

6. The lack of trades last night was surprising, given all the talk. Problem was there were more who wanted to move down than up.

 

So that seems to suggest some wanted to move up. The market may not have been amazing, but still I cant imagine that the Chargers wouldnt have been interested in trading up and getting whatever RB they wanted. Now who knows what the value was, but itd be impossible to imagine they wouldnt have offered 1,4,5 for it (which is what they gave San Fran).

[Soxbadger]

So those were the only 4 in the top 20...but out of that era of players drafted, what other ones taken in top 10 didn't show up on that list?

 

Ill see if I can find that information without having to do a ton of work, here is a list I found:

 

http://nesn.com/2011/02/drafting-wide-rece...iving-thoughts/

 

David Terrell (Bears, No. 8, 2001) Koren Robinson (Seahawks, No. 9, 2001) Charles Rogers (Lions, No. 2, 2003) Andre Johnson (Texans, No. 3, 2003) Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals, No. 3, 2004) Roy Williams (Lions, No. 7, 2004) Reggie Williams (Jaguars, No. 9, 2004) Braylon Edwards (Browns, No. 3, 2005) Troy Williamson (Vikings, No. 7, 2005) Mike Williams (Lions, No. 10, 2005) Calvin Johnson (Lions, No. 2, 2007) Ted Ginn Jr. (Dolphins, No. 9, 2007) Darrius Heyward-Bey (Raiders, No. 9, 2009) Michael Crabtree (49ers, No. 10, 2009)

 

2011 AJ and Julio

2012 Justin Blackmon

2013 Tavon Austin

2014 Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans

 

So from 2007 on the answer would be: Ted Ginn, Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Blackmon, Austin

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

I cant seem to find this anywhere. The only thing close Ive found is:

 

6. The lack of trades last night was surprising, given all the talk. Problem was there were more who wanted to move down than up.

 

So that seems to suggest some wanted to move up. The market may not have been amazing, but still I cant imagine that the Chargers wouldn't have been interested in trading up and getting whatever RB they wanted. Now who knows what the value was, but itd be impossible to imagine they wouldnt have offered 1,4,5 for it (which is what they gave San Fran).

I believe he said it on twitter. Biggs reported that he didn't buy into the talk Bears were working with Titans and said he thought it was Titans trying to drive up leverage to increase other teams offers (probably Eagles).

 

Multiple NFL insiders reported very little interest in teams moving around in this years draft (at least top half of 1st round) due to the fact that the general consensus in the league was their were basically 16 players who were a cut above everyone else and as a result, not much jockeying. Teams picking in that top 16 wanted one of those guys and the teams behind would have had to make more substantial offers than usual to move up and by and large no one was interested (w/exception of Chargers and that was a minimal move and more probably due to Niners having different focus and already having all of the guys they had graded in that spot off the board).

[Dick Allen]

I cant seem to find this anywhere. The only thing close Ive found is:

 

6. The lack of trades last night was surprising, given all the talk. Problem was there were more who wanted to move down than up.

 

So that seems to suggest some wanted to move up. The market may not have been amazing, but still I cant imagine that the Chargers wouldnt have been interested in trading up and getting whatever RB they wanted. Now who knows what the value was, but itd be impossible to imagine they wouldnt have offered 1,4,5 for it (which is what they gave San Fran).

Pompei was on CSN about an hour before the draft and someone suggested to him the Bears trade down. He said the Bears could be up for it, but no one was looking to trade up to pick 7.

[Chisoxfn]

Ill see if I can find that information without having to do a ton of work, here is a list I found:

 

http://nesn.com/2011/02/drafting-wide-rece...iving-thoughts/

 

David Terrell (Bears, No. 8, 2001) Koren Robinson (Seahawks, No. 9, 2001) Charles Rogers (Lions, No. 2, 2003) Andre Johnson (Texans, No. 3, 2003) Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals, No. 3, 2004) Roy Williams (Lions, No. 7, 2004) Reggie Williams (Jaguars, No. 9, 2004) Braylon Edwards (Browns, No. 3, 2005) Troy Williamson (Vikings, No. 7, 2005) Mike Williams (Lions, No. 10, 2005) Calvin Johnson (Lions, No. 2, 2007) Ted Ginn Jr. (Dolphins, No. 9, 2007) Darrius Heyward-Bey (Raiders, No. 9, 2009) Michael Crabtree (49ers, No. 10, 2009)

 

2011 AJ and Julio

2012 Justin Blackmon

2013 Tavon Austin

2014 Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans

 

So from 2007 on the answer would be: Ted Ginn, Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Blackmon, Austin

That is a horrifically high bust rate when you look at that list. That said, people seem to think receivers are built to adjust much easier now than even 3-4 years ago. We shall see though.

[Soxbadger]

That is a horrifically high bust rate when you look at that list. That said, people seem to think receivers are built to adjust much easier now than even 3-4 years ago. We shall see though.

 

Obviously the past doesnt mean anything and White could be the best wr ever. Its just a risky pick, and based on that its somewhat surprising that the Bears (a team who presumably is rebuilding) would start the rebuild with a WR. Not to mention I think a lot of my concern is based on the fact that a wr is dependent on a QB.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Soxbadger

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Obviously the past doesnt mean anything and White could be the best wr ever. Its just a risky pick, and based on that its somewhat surprising that the Bears (a team who presumably is rebuilding) would start the rebuild with a WR. Not to mention I think a lot of my concern is based on the fact that a wr is dependent on a QB.

Greg Jennings would agree

[GGajewski18]

Aaron Leming tweeted that Bears covet Randy Gregory on Day 2.

[2nd_city_saint787]

That is a horrifically high bust rate when you look at that list. That said, people seem to think receivers are built to adjust much easier now than even 3-4 years ago. We shall see though.

 

The rules for CBs that changed not too long ago is the reason for that.

 

A trade down would have been nice, I can agree with that, but I don't see how White could be considered a risky pick.

[Chisoxfn]

Aaron Leming tweeted that Bears covet Randy Gregory on Day 2.

He's clearly a talent. I long wanted him at 7.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Aaron Leming tweeted that Bears covet Randy Gregory on Day 2.

 

With all Fox and Pace have said about character I'd be a little surprised if they took Gregory.

 

I for one would like to wait a bit on OLB. Bears have McPhee as a lock starter there. Then you have Allen, Young, Bass, Jones, SMC, and apparently Houston all getting looks at the other spot. Add in a mid round draft pick to the mix and I think one of those guys can be the starter.

 

The more I think about it, I want one of the OTs. I think right now Mills is the weak link on this team, and Fisher/Donovan Smith/Clemmings all match up as BPA meeting a need.

[Chisoxfn]

The rules for CBs that changed not too long ago is the reason for that.

 

A trade down would have been nice, I can agree with that, but I don't see how White could be considered a risky pick.

I never said risky. I do look at some of those wideouts on the bust list and I would have said there were red flags, whether Austin, Ginn, Williams (both of them) or Hayward Bey and in fact would probably have said all of them were taken too high (and would have said it at the time). The ones that panned out, outside of Braylon Edwards (who I was pretty high on), I always felt were safe picks. Rogers was guy I was wrong about but his bustness was more due to injuries.