The Bench

[Señor Ding-Dong]

I think technically, Bonifacio will be the 4th OF. Shuck appears the favorite to win a spot, and he wasn't a bad hitter until last season.

 

I am concerned about the comments from Angels announcers implying he isn't exactly stellar with the glove. If you aren't going to have a guy in that spot that isn't a really good OF, I would prefer a guy who can come off the bench and hit one over the fence.

Here's something I can agree with you on. Even if Shuck makes the roster, I think we'll see Bonifacio in the OF ahead of Shuck. Definitely at CF.

 

While Shuck has looked pretty good on defense in spring training, it is a small sample size and if he really is a questionable defender then I rather would have just kept Viciedo (and I was sick of seeing that guy in a Sox uni). At least he can hit one out of the park.

[Señor Ding-Dong]

Worth noting, if you want a 4th OF who can defend well and occasionally hit one over the fence, Trayce Thompson might be your guy. I think he needs a year in AAA, but he does meet DA's qualifications.

I think we'll see him in a Sox uni at some point this year. I honestly think he's our best option now for 4th/5th OF.

[ILMOU]

For good reason.

 

If this truly is an "all in" season, I'd much rather have Sanchez or Saladino on the bench instead of Beckham. I know they'd personally benefit from playing in Charlotte everyday, especially Sanchez, but team needs come first and both of them are better bench options than Beckham. It's the same reason we need to have Rodon up here as soon as we can without giving up a year of control.

 

We know what Beckham brings, and that's average to slightly above average defense at 2B, average defense at 3B, the ability to play SS in a pinch, and little to no consistent hitting ability.

 

Sanchez and Saldino are better defenders than Beckham and offer more versatility (Sanchez is at worst above average at 2B, passable at SS, and probably can play 3B as well; Saladino is our third best defensive SS behind Alexei and Cleuluis Rondon and can play 2B and 3B in addition to corner OF). As far as batting goes, they can't possibly be any worse than Beckham, and odds are they're better even if their numbers won't blow you away.

 

Beckham is looking like this year's Leury Garcia without the versatility to play the outfield (well, he plays The Outfield but not the position ).

 

Sanchez and Saladino are better, but Beckham will stick around because of his contract and history with the organization.

This.

 

And, that was some pretty fancy cherry picking, DA, on the GB vs. EB comparison. EB has a 118ops+ for his career vs. LHP, which is how he should be used on the Sox. Killed it vs. LHP last season. If Robin uses him wisely, he'll almost never see RHP, which is good because he's terrible against them.

[Dick Allen]

This.

 

And, that was some pretty fancy cherry picking, DA, on the GB vs. EB comparison. EB has a 118ops+ for his career vs. LHP, which is how he should be used on the Sox. Killed it vs. LHP last season. If Robin uses him wisely, he'll almost never see RHP, which is good because he's terrible against them.

So the switch hitting that Eminor pointed out means nothing. An why is it cherry picking when he said having him in the line up for decent stretches and the Sox won't miss a beat? Can they request only LH pitchers? Beckham was pretty good against LHP too last season.

 

But seriously, telling someone they are cherry picking when they are using career stats with a veteran is pretty weak.

Edited March 16, 2015 by Dick Allen

[ILMOU]

So the switch hitting that Eminor pointed out means nothing. An why is it cherry picking when he said having him in the line up for decent stretches and the Sox won't miss a beat? Can they request only LH pitchers? Beckham was pretty good against LHP too last season.

 

But seriously, telling someone they are cherry picking when they are using career stats with a veteran is pretty weak.

I'm not Eminor. I think that Bonifacio is unplayable vs. RHP, except for injury or D replacement. His flame out with the Cubs is evidence of why you don't want him to play for long stretches. But he fits much better with the anticipated everyday personnell, as does Saladino, in getting us preferable matchups in game situations.

[Eminor3rd]

So the switch hitting that Eminor pointed out means nothing. An why is it cherry picking when he said having him in the line up for decent stretches and the Sox won't miss a beat? Can they request only LH pitchers? Beckham was pretty good against LHP too last season.

 

But seriously, telling someone they are cherry picking when they are using career stats with a veteran is pretty weak.

 

Ok, so take away the switch-hitting part and treat him like a righty. Bonifacio is a career 97 wRC+ against LHP, Beckham is a career 85 wRC+. And Bonifacio plays three more positions and is way faster.

[Dick Allen]

Ok, so take away the switch-hitting part and treat him like a righty. Bonifacio is a career 97 wRC+ against LHP, Beckham is a career 85 wRC+. And Bonifacio plays three more positions and is way faster.

So you aren't ever going to play the guy vs, RHP?

 

 

He is hardly going to play.

 

Your fangraphs 4 projections project them pretty much the same, and Bonifacio makes double. Beckham is a bargain.

Edited March 16, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

So you aren't ever going to play the guy vs, RHP?

 

 

He is hardly going to play.

 

Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP.

 

But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio.

[Eminor3rd]

Your fangraphs 4 projections project them pretty much the same, and Bonifacio makes double. Beckham is a bargain.

 

Dick Allen. Are you reading these posts? If you're going to continue arguing this, please stop comparing both players' equally s***ty offensive projections/track records and address the differences on the basepaths and defensively, because that's literally the ENTIRE argument being made between the two players.

[caulfield12]

So you aren't ever going to play the guy vs, RHP?

 

 

He is hardly going to play.

 

Your fangraphs 4 projections project them pretty much the same, and Bonifacio makes double. Beckham is a bargain.

 

Dividing his career amount of production by his signing bonus and salaries paid out, it's hard to make that argument.

 

If it's JUST for 2015, then you're really pushing it. Sure, Chris Getz would be a bargain, too.

 

[Dick Allen]

Dick Allen. Are you reading these posts? If you're going to continue arguing this, please stop comparing both players' equally s***ty offensive projections/track records and address the differences on the basepaths and defensively, because that's literally the ENTIRE argument being made between the two players.

But you are basically saying Bonifacio cannot play vs. RHP. And blow off all these projections that you used to think were very useful tools. Bonifacio is faster, he does play more positions. That doesn't mean he is valuable and Beckham needs to be waived.

 

If Banifacio is so much more valuable, how are all these projections you seem to defend to no end whenever they are questioned, not coming to the same conclusion?

 

Leury Garica is faster than either, and plays more positions than either. Maybe they should keep him.

Edited March 16, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

But you are basically saying Bonifacio cannot play vs. RHP.

 

For this point, I'm just going to repost this again. Maybe you'll read it this time:

 

Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP.

 

But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio.

 

Next:

 

And blow off all these projections that you used to think were very useful tools. Bonifacio is faster, he does play more positions. That doesn't mean he is valuable and Beckham needs to be waived.

 

If Banifacio is so much more valuable, how are all these projections you seem to defend to no end whenever they are questioned, not coming to the same conclusion?

 

I'm assuming that when you say "both players project about the same," you're referring to their WAR projections. In this instance, both players' projections assume they'll be getting a ton of PT. I don't think it's in the plan for either of them to get that PT, and so the WAR numbers aren't helpful, because WAR is a counting stat. For example, the only one of the systems that projects Beckham to reach 1.0 WAR is ZiPS, but ZiPS has him projected for over 500 PA. If you pro-rate those numbers for the more reasonable 300 PA that the other systems are calling for, you're going to be closer to that 0.5-0.7 range, which is where Bonifacio is despite ~100 fewer PA projected.

 

If both players are deployed as they are planned to be deployed (or as I think they SHOULD be planned to be deployed at least), those baserunning numbers are going to be very important. If Bonifacio spends a lot of his time in the OF corners, his WAR numbers are going to be skewed downward because of the difference in replacement level for a corner OF vs. a second baseman. This is what people mean when they say that you need to use all the information you can to paint a picture rather than just consider one tool blindly and call it wrong when it doesn't answer every question for you. This is why no one ever argues that WAR is meant to be the "be all end all" stat except, ironically, Harold Reynolds when he's setting up a strawman.

 

Even Dan Szymborski is quick to point out that PT numbers are the least reliable component of the projections because they are affected by things that are not visible in the numbers. The rates, however, are much better, and you may have to apply your own PT estimates when you have reason to believe yours are more accurate.

 

Leury Garica is faster than either, and plays more positions than either. Maybe they should keep him.

 

If we didn't already have Bonifacio, I would be in favor of keeping Garcia on the bench over Beckham precisely because of these things.

 

Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

[ILMOU]

Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP.

 

But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio.

This is an excellent post.

 

And let me add that it may be Conor who's more established in needing a platoon partner, and Micah should probably be given the chance to hit every day, if he's good enough to start in the first place. Taking away most of Conor's ABs vs lefties makes the team better. And EB's high OBP vs. LHP fits the bill.

 

[Dick Allen]

so you now agree that postimg standings based on projected WAR, and determining strength of Schedule based on projected WAR,(only weeks ago you thought it so important you started a thread) is a joke because now aparently projected WAR is now silly.

 

 

Leury over Beckham? Another joke.

Edited March 16, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

so you now agree that postimg standings based on projected WAR, and determining strength of Schedule based on projected WAR,(only weeks ago you thought it so important you started a thread) is a joke because now aparently projected WAR is now silly.

 

 

Leury over Beckham? Another joke.

 

Nope, wrong. I won't rehash my argument for the utility of WAR projections because I'm tired of re-typing it and you don't seem to respond well to anything that isn't completely black & white, but arguing that bench player WAR on an individual level can be a few decimals off due to PT does NOT invalidate projections because (a) bench players only add very small amounts to the projection in the first place, rarely (if ever) having a strong effect on the overall results, and (b) any WAR gained or lost by an individual player due to inaccurate PT numbers is subsequently gained or lost by a different player, thereby further marginalizing an already tiny effect. Dividing total innings to be played in a season is, essentially, a zero-sum calculation. So if Gordon Beckham's projected WAR is 0.2 too high because he's projected for 150 too many ABs, those 150 ABs are going to to another player instead who's very likley to put up something in the neighborhood of 0.1 - 0.3 WAR instead. In some extreme case, the Beckham PT disparity might be the difference between like 40 team WAR and , I don't know, 40.4?

[bigruss]

[Jose Abreu]

[chitownsportsfan]

lol at that pic! I was just about to say "Eminor doing work!" when I saw it. ROFL...

 

Dick, man, this guy is good listen to the man.

[Dick Allen]

Nope, wrong. I won't rehash my argument for the utility of WAR projections because I'm tired of re-typing it and you don't seem to respond well to anything that isn't completely black & white, but arguing that bench player WAR on an individual level can be a few decimals off due to PT does NOT invalidate projections because (a) bench players only add very small amounts to the projection in the first place, rarely (if ever) having a strong effect on the overall results, and (b) any WAR gained or lost by an individual player due to inaccurate PT numbers is subsequently gained or lost by a different player, thereby further marginalizing an already tiny effect. Dividing total innings to be played in a season is, essentially, a zero-sum calculation. So if Gordon Beckham's projected WAR is 0.2 too high because he's projected for 150 too many ABs, those 150 ABs are going to to another player instead who's very likley to put up something in the neighborhood of 0.1 - 0.3 WAR instead. In some extreme case, the Beckham PT disparity might be the difference between like 40 team WAR and , I don't know, 40.4?

LMAO. The projected WAR is wrong because they have them playing too much but projected standings and strength of schedule using these imcorrect numbers are good tools.

 

The funny thing is since WAR is a counting stat of the 4 projections fangraphs uses, the almost all have Bonifacio making 100 more plate appearances than Beckahm and Beckham still the same or better.

Edited March 17, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

LMAO. The projected WAR is wrong because they have them playing too much but projected standings and strength of schedule using these imcorrect numbers are good tools.

 

The funny thing is since WAR is a counting stat of the 4 projections fangraphs uses, the almost all have Bonifacio making 100 more plate appearances than Beckahm and Beckham still the same or better.

 

Please read the below, and mentally replace 'Garcia' with 'Bonifacio'

 

Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

 

Except in the case of Bonifacio, Beckham may NOT even be able to outhit him, especially if each player is used in a platoon role. Beckham has a much more neutral platoon split, which evens him out in the unlikely and very unfortunate event that either player would be counted on to start consistently against the platoon split.

 

But again:

 

Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

Edited March 17, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[Señor Ding-Dong]

I'm not trying to be a dick to Dick, but that's hilarious.

[chw42]

 

I think you've created a new phenomenon.

[caulfield12]

I think you've created a new phenomenon.

 

 

Meme?

 

Can we get a Deadspin article?

 

 

[Boopa1219]

Pipe dream, but I would love to have Jarrod Dyson on the Sox.

[Dick Allen]

Please read the below, and mentally replace 'Garcia' with 'Bonifacio'

 

 

 

Except in the case of Bonifacio, Beckham may NOT even be able to outhit him, especially if each player is used in a platoon role. Beckham has a much more neutral platoon split, which evens him out in the unlikely and very unfortunate event that either player would be counted on to start consistently against the platoon split.

 

But again:

For their careers Becham has played about 40 more games and has a 5.3 WAR vs, Bonifacios 6.0 WAR. Since you know Gordon Beckham sucks, I guess this would be proof Bonifacio, despite beimg faster and playing more positions, sucks as well. Again, if Bonifacio is not goimg to play against RHP, he is hardly going to play. alexei played in almost every game and had 162 PA vs. LHP. Bonifacio is going to have to play against RHP occassionally.

Edited March 17, 2015 by Dick Allen