Micah Johnson should be White Sox second baseman

[chitownsportsfan]

I think you shortchange Sanchez a bit.

 

I would not put him in with Bonifacio and Beckham as you do, calling them "known commodities." This works both for and against Sanchez. If Sanchez is anything like the (younger-than-Johnson) guy he was last year in AAA, which seems to be ruled out as an impossibility by most, he'd be an excellent choice at 2B and would never get pushed off the spot except to (possibly) move to SS. There's intriguing upside with Sanchez and, more importantly, a fair amount of mystery.

 

More nit-picky, I think Johnson having "far more speed" than Sanchez is probably a stretch. Maybe not literally so much as the extent to which it makes for a meaningful difference between these two players.

 

I'm also inclined to believe that Sanchez is such a far superior defender to Johnson that this aspect is not being adequately considered, but I'll admit to seeing very little of Johnson's D.

 

More generally, I'm concerned about Johnson's poor production in AAA and his general up-and-down production that is typically only "up" when his age compares favorably with his competition. I also think that a bad run in MLB is not harmless, but rather that a stretch of really poor play in MLB can really hurt a player's development and confidence. Likewise, even if the bad play doesn't do it, the demotion can do it. Sanchez has nothing to prove in MiLB so I don't see a great reason to protect him from MLB failure at this juncture.

 

great post. the last paragraph is spot on.

[LDF]

the response in general is going to be interesting tomorrow.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I think you shortchange Sanchez a bit.

 

I would not put him in with Bonifacio and Beckham as you do, calling them "known commodities." This works both for and against Sanchez. If Sanchez is anything like the (younger-than-Johnson) guy he was last year in AAA, which seems to be ruled out as an impossibility by most, he'd be an excellent choice at 2B and would never get pushed off the spot except to (possibly) move to SS. There's intriguing upside with Sanchez and, more importantly, a fair amount of mystery.

 

More nit-picky, I think Johnson having "far more speed" than Sanchez is probably a stretch. Maybe not literally so much as the extent to which it makes for a meaningful difference between these two players.

 

I'm also inclined to believe that Sanchez is such a far superior defender to Johnson that this aspect is not being adequately considered, but I'll admit to seeing very little of Johnson's D.

 

More generally, I'm concerned about Johnson's poor production in AAA and his general up-and-down production that is typically only "up" when his age compares favorably with his competition. I also think that a bad run in MLB is not harmless, but rather that a stretch of really poor play in MLB can really hurt a player's development and confidence. Likewise, even if the bad play doesn't do it, the demotion can do it. Sanchez has nothing to prove in MiLB so I don't see a great reason to protect him from MLB failure at this juncture.

 

His bad in AAA corresponded to his hamstring injury he played through. I think people are putting WAY too much into that small and explainable sample size.

[asindc]

His bad in AAA corresponded to his hamstring injury he played through. I think people are putting WAY too much into that small and explainable sample size.

 

Agreed. Some seem to be forgetting he played hurt even after he returned from injury.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think you shortchange Sanchez a bit.

 

I would not put him in with Bonifacio and Beckham as you do, calling them "known commodities." This works both for and against Sanchez. If Sanchez is anything like the (younger-than-Johnson) guy he was last year in AAA, which seems to be ruled out as an impossibility by most, he'd be an excellent choice at 2B and would never get pushed off the spot except to (possibly) move to SS. There's intriguing upside with Sanchez and, more importantly, a fair amount of mystery.

 

More nit-picky, I think Johnson having "far more speed" than Sanchez is probably a stretch. Maybe not literally so much as the extent to which it makes for a meaningful difference between these two players.

 

I'm also inclined to believe that Sanchez is such a far superior defender to Johnson that this aspect is not being adequately considered, but I'll admit to seeing very little of Johnson's D.

 

More generally, I'm concerned about Johnson's poor production in AAA and his general up-and-down production that is typically only "up" when his age compares favorably with his competition. I also think that a bad run in MLB is not harmless, but rather that a stretch of really poor play in MLB can really hurt a player's development and confidence. Likewise, even if the bad play doesn't do it, the demotion can do it. Sanchez has nothing to prove in MiLB so I don't see a great reason to protect him from MLB failure at this juncture.

Some very good points here.

 

Sanchez is certainly not as known as Beckham and Bonifacio, that is true - Sanchez is further back on the development curve and has far fewer looks in MLB. On the other hand though, Sanchez has a pair of seasons at AAA and some MLB time, so he's certainly more known (for good or bad) than Johnson.

 

I'm also not sure Sanchez is such a far superior defender. Sanchez is much smoother and will be better fielding batted balls in a core zone, but the range difference is I think significant. And that means a significant number of outs Johnson can make that Sanchez won't. So it is hard for me to believe Sanchez can be a lot better defensively, unless Johnson is booting a play every game (either a literal error or just poorly played into hits), which I don't think will be the case.

 

As others have pointed out, you have to remember, Johnson was hitting .300 in AAA for a while before the injuries bit him, so make sure to keep that in mind. But if you still want to look at that, then look at these tidbits too... Sanchez' first year in AAA was far worse offensively than Johnson's. Yes he was two years younger and that is important, but Sanchez also had more minor league play under his belt by then too. This isn't to say it is a perfect comp, but to point out that Johnson, even with the hammy issues, did better in his first shot at the level than Sanchez did.

 

Finally, while I think rushing a player can have consequences, I don't think a guy who's dominated AA and spent time at AAA being a major leaguer is going to do that. If he struggles for a month or two, he goes back to AAA, and I just don't see that harming a guy like Johnson.

 

[shysocks]

His bad in AAA corresponded to his hamstring injury he played through. I think people are putting WAY too much into that small and explainable sample size.

I'm just saying that I need proof positive from a guy before he jumps to the majors. At the very peak of his performance in AAA he had a 109 wRC+ and a 4.7 BB%. I don't need Kris Bryant, 43 homers, this-guy-kills type numbers. But I need a little bit more than that, especially with some of the other lines guys were putting up in that ballpark. I particularly want to see the walk rate come along as it's one of the things that makes Micah so exciting.

 

And I know people will say that Sanchez wasn't lighting it up when he was promoted, so I'll point out that the circumstances were obviously different.

[Chicago White Sox]

More nit-picky, I think Johnson having "far more speed" than Sanchez is probably a stretch. Maybe not literally so much as the extent to which it makes for a meaningful difference between these two players.

Jake, I think you're typically a very objective poster, but this line just screams Micah Hater and/or Sanchez Homer. The speed difference between these two is legitimate and quite significant. Not sure if you're looking at his SB totals from last year, but Micah has the ability to be an elite base-stealer. Sanchez is more of 20 SB kind of guy. Micah also has far better range at 2B than Sanchez. His overall potential is much higher than Carlos' almost entirely due to speed. Saying the difference in speed isn't meaningful is pretty ridiculous.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm just saying that I need proof positive from a guy before he jumps to the majors. At the very peak of his performance in AAA he had a 109 wRC+ and a 4.7 BB%. I don't need Kris Bryant, 43 homers, this-guy-kills type numbers. But I need a little bit more than that, especially with some of the other lines guys were putting up in that ballpark. I particularly want to see the walk rate come along as it's one of the things that makes Micah so exciting.

 

And I know people will say that Sanchez wasn't lighting it up when he was promoted, so I'll point out that the circumstances were obviously different.

Not every prospect lights up AAA before going to the majors. Some even skip it entirely.

 

I do agree that the walk rate is something he'll need to keep up, but to be clear, he's hovered around 8% the past couple years.

 

[GreenSox]

I'm now fully in on Micah as the 2B. Got into a discussion with James Fegan (from The Catabird Seat blog), as he feels Micah isn't there yet.

 

So here's a sort of response to his piece, where I make the case for Micah as the Opening Day 2B.

 

Agree? Disagree? Not sure yet? Grammatical errors?

I'm 50/50 on it. you both make compelling cases.

Oh I have no doubt that he's our best option, but I hate to risk him developing bad habits if he struggles with the bat. He's such a patient hitter right now.

[chitownsportsfan]

Not every prospect lights up AAA before going to the majors. Some even skip it entirely.

 

I do agree that the walk rate is something he'll need to keep up, but to be clear, he's hovered around 8% the past couple years.

 

It's going to be hard for him to walk much just because guys are going to attack him until he proves he can drive a MLB fastball. Same problem Flowers and Beckham have. Beckham actually has a solid outside zone swing % for his career but why would you nibble with Beckham?

 

Hopefully Micah can prove he has some pop in his bat.

[NorthSideSox72]

It's going to be hard for him to walk much just because guys are going to attack him until he proves he can drive a MLB fastball. Same problem Flowers and Beckham have. Beckham actually has a solid outside zone swing % for his career but why would you nibble with Beckham?

 

Hopefully Micah can prove he has some pop in his bat.

He's got substantially more pop than Sanchez, for example. Micah's HR numbers the past couple years equal out to 8-10 for a full season.

 

And I don't think he needs to prove he can HR off an MLB fastball anyway. He just needs to prove he can hit it effectively. If he just keeps spraying liners to left and center off that pitch, they'll start throwing him offspeed to get him to chase.

 

[BlackSox13]

Going into ST, my guess was Sanchez as the starting second baseman but as of now Micah is looking like he's the man for job.

 

Its going to be interesting to see how Johnson responds to tougher pitching as more pitchers are reassigned to the minors.

[LDF]

Going into ST, my guess was Sanchez as the starting second baseman but as of now Micah is looking like he's the man for job.

 

Its going to be interesting to see how Johnson responds to tougher pitching as more pitchers are reassigned to the minors.

 

here is the really hard question to consider.

 

would it best serve to send MJ down to the minors to continue his development, esp in positional situation at 2b or go with the hot hand at 2b and keep him up?

[Dick Allen]

here is the really hard question to consider.

 

would it best serve to send MJ down to the minors to continue his development, esp in positional situation at 2b or go with the hot hand at 2b and keep him up?

You let him make the decision for you. There are still a couple of weeks left. If he continues to play well, you give him a shot. There are a lot of players that never played AAA. There are some that played very little. When Gordon Beckham came up, he had 7 games in AAA, and was a star like performer. The one thing you have to consider is how he will deal with failure, which occurs with everyone. It ate Beckham up. Micah is supposed to be hard on himself. There could be an argument that Beckham should have spent more time in AAA, but he certainly looked ready the first 100 games on the major league level, so I don't know how those games being in AAA would have made him better.

 

I don't think Micah necessarily needs to play more in AAA if he continues to do what he's doing. But I do think the big test is going to be when things aren't going his way. And that happens to everyone.

[Chisoxfn]

You let him make the decision for you. There are still a couple of weeks left. If he continues to play well, you give him a shot. There are a lot of players that never played AAA. There are some that played very little. When Gordon Beckham came up, he had 7 games in AAA, and was a star like performer. The one thing you have to consider is how he will deal with failure, which occurs with everyone. It ate Beckham up. Micah is supposed to be hard on himself. There could be an argument that Beckham should have spent more time in AAA, but he certainly looked ready the first 100 games on the major league level, so I don't know how those games being in AAA would have made him better.

 

I don't think Micah necessarily needs to play more in AAA if he continues to do what he's doing. But I do think the big test is going to be when things aren't going his way. And that happens to everyone.

Beckham's problem happened after that successful off-season where he made significant adjustments to his swing, etc, because he ultimately lacked confidence in what he was doing and thought he needed to do more and was making the necessary adjustments to get better. As a result, the mental game took a serious toll on Gordon as after that point, he has really struggled being able to put together a consistent swing. He's swing is in constant flux and was lengthened from where it was early in his career.

[LDF]

You let him make the decision for you. There are still a couple of weeks left. If he continues to play well, you give him a shot. There are a lot of players that never played AAA. There are some that played very little. When Gordon Beckham came up, he had 7 games in AAA, and was a star like performer. The one thing you have to consider is how he will deal with failure, which occurs with everyone. It ate Beckham up. Micah is supposed to be hard on himself. There could be an argument that Beckham should have spent more time in AAA, but he certainly looked ready the first 100 games on the major league level, so I don't know how those games being in AAA would have made him better.

 

I don't think Micah necessarily needs to play more in AAA if he continues to do what he's doing. But I do think the big test is going to be when things aren't going his way. And that happens to everyone.

 

very good points...... i like it

 

my response in base on 2 things

1. he is hitting great and may be talented enuf to go north based on that, but how bout his defense??

 

2. the proverbial wall that all players hit, would he be better for another yr in the minors to work on his overall game and gain another yr of maturity??

[Whisox05]

here is the really hard question to consider.

 

would it best serve to send MJ down to the minors to continue his development, esp in positional situation at 2b or go with the hot hand at 2b and keep him up?

 

If micah continues to play well then you put him on opening day roster. If he starts to fall apart then you send him back down. If he were to continue playing well and everyone knew he had the job but you decide to send him down will kill all the confidence he gained from spring training. Now you would have to worry about him taking it with him to the minors and not playing well. I kinda think that affected matt davidson last year. He hit well in spring training but the sox didn't have room on the roster to take him so they had to send him down and we know how his minors went last year.

Edited March 20, 2015 by WhiteSoxLifer

[Dick Allen]

very good points...... i like it

 

my response in base on 2 things

1. he is hitting great and may be talented enuf to go north based on that, but how bout his defense??

 

2. the proverbial wall that all players hit, would he be better for another yr in the minors to work on his overall game and gain another yr of maturity??

If he was 21 or 22, I think a case could be made he goes to Charlotte no matter what he does in Spring Training. He's 24, and seems mature beyond his years. If they do take him north, we ultimately will see, it is tougher than it would have been if the Sox weren't expected to win, so the leash has to be shorter, but if he looks ready, I don't see at this point what good a few months of AAA will do for him. Maybe on May 1st, he shows he needs AAA, but as long as he is holding his own, I don't think future progress will be damaged even if the promotion proves to be too aggressive.

[LDF]

If he was 21 or 22, I think a case could be made he goes to Charlotte no matter what he does in Spring Training. He's 24, and seems mature beyond his years. If they do take him north, we ultimately will see, it is tougher than it would have been if the Sox weren't expected to win, so the leash has to be shorter, but if he looks ready, I don't see at this point what good a few months of AAA will do for him. Maybe on May 1st, he shows he needs AAA, but as long as he is holding his own, I don't think future progress will be damaged even if the promotion proves to be too aggressive.

 

another good point.

 

another yr will aid in his development in defensive positioning, again that is if the coaches will advice. but to go north b/c the team didn't address that need earlier, may also hurt the player, if he is being rush.

[LDF]

If micah continues to play well then you put him on opening day roster. If he starts to fall apart then you send him back down. If he were to continue playing well and everyone knew he had the job but you decide to send him down will kill all the confidence he gained from spring training. Now you would have to worry about him taking it with him to the minors and not playing well. I kinda think that affected matt davidson last year. He hit well in spring training but the sox didn't have room on the roster to take him so they had to send him down and we know how his minors went last year.

 

would that not also hurt his confidence??

 

but the coaches will know if he needs to work on his development, not the player, fans or the press. i think MJ knows this as well.

[Whisox05]

I'm talking the rest of spring training. If he does make the team and doesn't play well at all then he knows it will be him sent down to the minors to work on things. Sending him down if he's playing well at the end of spring training will affect him.

[Dick Allen]

would that not also hurt his confidence??

 

but the coaches will know if he needs to work on his development, not the player, fans or the press. i think MJ knows this as well.

If it is going to ruin him to be sent down if he isn't performing, he isn't going to be a very good player anyway. I know some people still use the excuse for Davidson last season, but if he feels so sorry for himself he is a below .200 hitting strikeout machine in a place where he thinks he is too good to be (and I don't think that was the case) , he isn't going to be a building block for the organization. The game is designed for failure. If you can't handle it, you wind up sucking.

[LDF]

I'm talking the rest of spring training. If he does make the team and doesn't play well at all then he knows it will be him sent down to the minors to work on things. Sending him down if he's playing well at the end of spring training will affect him.

 

everyone here has valid answers, i just want to say, no one has THE answer. i like this discussion.

 

now, letting him know if the intention to let him shine with the knowledge that he will go down to finish his educations can still do all the positive results as well.

[LDF]

If it is going to ruin him to be sent down if he isn't performing, he isn't going to be a very good player anyway. I know some people still use the excuse for Davidson last season, but if he feels so sorry for himself he is a below .200 hitting strikeout machine in a place where he thinks he is too good to be (and I don't think that was the case) , he isn't going to be a building block for the organization. The game is designed for failure. If you can't handle it, you wind up sucking.

 

dang, maybe it is me and being tired, but many are making a valid points.

 

i can't think of a response.

 

very nice.

[LDF]

If it is going to ruin him to be sent down if he isn't performing, he isn't going to be a very good player anyway. I know some people still use the excuse for Davidson last season, but if he feels so sorry for himself he is a below .200 hitting strikeout machine in a place where he thinks he is too good to be (and I don't think that was the case) , he isn't going to be a building block for the organization. The game is designed for failure. If you can't handle it, you wind up sucking.

ok, i am ready for round 2.

 

as it has been mention, maturity and development. just b/c, lets say with his age comes maturity, which is true, there is a different maturity with ball players. some calls it being hard on one self, and as you say the game is designed for failure. (btw, i like this thought processes)

 

so the only way i can think of to overcome it is to help recognize it and reps. the kind of reps that can work in the minors as a educational tool. not in the majors where the game is so more serious, adding to that pressure to continue to succeed.

Edited March 20, 2015 by LDF