Cold hard facts

[caulfield12]

No not a Sixto Rodriguez album.

 

 

Building on a NESN article, I researched the last four years....so we have a complete picture of all MLB playoff teams since 2001.

 

Only 3 of 118 teams have made the playoffs following an 0-4 start.

 

 

2011 Tampa Bay Rays...0-6/1-8

2011 Milwaukee Brewers...0-4/3-4

2012 Atlanta Braves...0-4/5-4

 

The 2003 Braves started 1-3/1-4, the 2007 Phillies 0-3/1-6, 2014 Orioles 1-3/1-4, 2012 SF Giants 1-3/1-4 and 2013 Pirates 1-3/1-5.

 

Seven teams from 2011-2014 started 1-3 and still made the postseason.

 

Historically speaking, now, the odds would suggest our chances are less than 3%. Exactly 2.54% to be more precise.

[LittleHurt05]

So you're saying there's a chance....

 

 

[spiderman]

No not a Sixto Rodriguez album.

 

 

Building on a NESN article, I researched the last four years....so we have a complete picture of all MLB playoff teams since 2001.

 

Only 3 of 118 teams have made the playoffs following an 0-4 start.

 

 

2011 Tampa Bay Rays...0-6/1-8

2011 Milwaukee Brewers...0-4/3-4

2012 Atlanta Braves...0-4/5-4

 

The 2003 Braves started 1-3/1-4, the 2007 Phillies 0-3/1-6, 2014 Orioles 1-3/1-4, 2012 SF Giants 1-3/1-4 and 2013 Pirates 1-3/1-5.

 

Seven teams from 2011-2014 started 1-3 and still made the postseason.

 

Historically speaking, now, the odds would suggest our chances are less than 3%. Exactly 2.54% to be more precise.

 

Small sample size.

 

I'd be curious how many teams have made the playoffs after 30 games of poor play. If the White Sox, in mid May, are 8-10 games under .500, I'm concerned, but if the Sox are 5-6 after 11 games, that means they turned things around.

 

Way too early for any hard conclusions.

[chitownsportsfan]

Yea its late early what a buzzkill. Win tmr and the day after and revisit the history.

[chitownsportsfan]

Small sample size.

 

I'd be curious how many teams have made the playoffs after 30 games of poor play. If the White Sox, in mid May, are 8-10 games under .500, I'm concerned, but if the Sox are 5-6 after 11 games, that means they turned things around.

 

Way too early for any hard conclusions.

 

The conclusion is most teams that start 0-4 arent playoff teams. Don't need to be Einstein to see that. Sure if they win 8 of 14 to get to 8-10 we can revisit.

[SCCWS]

No not a Sixto Rodriguez album.

 

 

Building on a NESN article, I researched the last four years....so we have a complete picture of all MLB playoff teams since 2001.

 

Only 3 of 118 teams have made the playoffs following an 0-4 start.

 

 

2011 Tampa Bay Rays...0-6/1-8

2011 Milwaukee Brewers...0-4/3-4

2012 Atlanta Braves...0-4/5-4

 

The 2003 Braves started 1-3/1-4, the 2007 Phillies 0-3/1-6, 2014 Orioles 1-3/1-4, 2012 SF Giants 1-3/1-4 and 2013 Pirates 1-3/1-5.

 

Seven teams from 2011-2014 started 1-3 and still made the postseason.

 

Historically speaking, now, the odds would suggest our chances are less than 3%. Exactly 2.54% to be more precise.

 

Your research leaves out some very important pieces of data. How many teams that started 0-4 without pitching their ace failed to make the playoffs. Also, of the teams that started 0-4, what was the home/away makeup of those games. For example, an 0-4 team at home vs an 0-4 team away.

 

A sampling of 4 games is too small to make any conclusion. For example in 2011 when Tampa Bay started 0-6, they also started that season with their best player, Longoria on the 15 day DL.

Edited April 11, 2015 by SCCWS

[caulfield12]

Your research leaves out some very important pieces of data. How many teams that started 0-4 without pitching their ace failed to make the playoffs. Also, of the teams that started 0-4, what was the home/away makeup of those games. For example, an 0-4 team at home vs an 0-4 team away.

 

A sampling of 4 games is too small to make any conclusion. For example in 2011 when Tampa Bay started 0-6, they also started that season with their best player, Longoria on the 15 day DL.

 

 

We can parse that statistics all we want, but the last 118 playoff teams going back all the way to 2001 is a pretty big swath.

 

If you looked at teams in the 50s, 60s or 70s, that would be invalidated by the fact there were fewer teams...on the other hand, fewer playoff spots (like 1967) so perhaps a statistician could correct for all these issues better than i.

[nickofypres]

Sox started 4-2 in 2013, and 8-6 last year.

 

Obviously you can't look at past teams with different players and different circumstances (especially as such a small sample size) as reasoning for success/failure but.... opening week doesn't dictate the season.

Edited April 11, 2015 by woods of ypres

[caulfield12]

Another way would be to look at the final record of all teams starting 0-4.

 

It wouldnt be a pretty picture.

 

For example, in 2000, 75% of the playoff teams started 2-2 (White Sox among them) and two (Cards and Mariners) were 3-1 starters.

 

So now it's three of the last 126 playoff teams...2.4%

Edited April 11, 2015 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Another way would be to look at the final record of all teams starting 0-4.

 

It wouldnt be pretty picture.

 

For example, 75% of the playoff teams started 2-2 (White Sox among them) and two (Cards and Mariners) were 3-1 starters.

 

So now its three of the last 126 playoff teams...2.4%

 

There's nothing good in this data. Yea, it's a selection bias and you'd find stuff like teams that went 2-9 or 1-8 that made the playoffs but the thing is: USUALLY TEAMS THAT START 0-4 ARE s***TY. PERIOD.

 

Maybe this team is different but right now? Doesn't look good. It's late early and they are already 4 back in the division on April 10th. Not good man.

 

Put it this way: if they were 4-0 and were winning as big as they are losing now -- would you start printing playoff tickets? Of course not, but you'd sure as s*** consider the possibility that this is a playoff team. I think we sure as s*** better consider the possibility that this is a 75 win team. F***

Edited April 11, 2015 by chitownsportsfan

[kev211]

Majority of teams that start 0-4 are s***.

 

I guarantee a decent majority of most playoff teams hit a 4 game skid at some point during the season. Ours just happened the first four games.

[LDF]

 

i am in no mood, i am sobering up, and i am getting a head ache....

 

but i do have to say, i am really impress with the posters on soxtalk. no lets hang robin, no the pitchers really suck, no we over estimated this team..... mine would be the sox are in this hole b/c of overestimating or getting penny as a pitcher.

 

it is early and yous guys are great.... no pointing fingers.

[chitownsportsfan]

Majority of teams that start 0-4 are s***.

 

I guarantee a decent majority of most playoff teams hit a 4 game skid at some point during the season. Ours just happened the first four games.

 

Yea, but the Sox' dice might be biased to the "L" column, ya know? Hence, rolling 4 in a roll to start. That's why 0-4 to start is way more significant historically than a 4 game losing streak over 162 games.

[caulfield12]

There's nothing good in this data. Yea, it's a selection bias and you'd find stuff like teams that went 2-9 or 1-8 that made the playoffs but the thing is: USUALLY TEAMS THAT START 0-4 ARE s***TY. PERIOD.

 

Maybe this team is different but right now? Doesn't look good. It's late early and they are already 4 back in the division on April 10th. Not good man.

 

Put it this way: if they were 4-0 and were winning as big as they are losing now -- would you start printing playoff tickets? Of course not, but you'd sure as s*** consider the possibility that this is a playoff team. I think we sure as s*** better consider the possibility that this is a 75 win team. F***

 

Everyone knows slow starts are magnified. Look no further than the Red Sox and Rays over the last 3-4 seasons.

 

You cant win a pennant in April, but you can definitely lose one, with 2011 being the most recent example with the bullpen struggles...or 2013 to a lesser extent.

 

 

And speaking of the pen, Hector Santiago is outpitching our top two guys against the Royals tonight.

Oops jinxed Hector, Cain just got the go-ahead single to drive in Escobar.

 

By the way, the Angels are overrated...that offense is at least one big bat short.

Edited April 11, 2015 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Everyone knows slow starts are magnified. Look no further than the Red Sox and Rays over the last 3-4 seasons.

 

You cant win a pennant in April, but you can definitely lose one, with 2011 being the most recent example with the bullpen struggles...or 2013 to a lesser extent.

 

 

And speaking of the pen, Hector Santiago is outpitching our top two guys against the Royals tonight.

 

Indeed. Boston 20-29 at the end of May last year with a roster many predicted to contend. Blew it all up in July. I really hope the Sox can turn it around but man it's just a s*** start. And let's not kid ourselves this is an awful 0-4 as well. They haven't really been in a single game late and many of the gaffes we've seen are eerily familiar of the last few Sox teams. Just not good fundamental baseball. Forget the fancy stuff just don't get TOOTBLANN'ed every other inning and throw the ball all over the diamond.

 

And try and tag down 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th.

[caulfield12]

Indeed. Boston 20-29 at the end of May last year with a roster many predicted to contend. Blew it all up in July. I really hope the Sox can turn it around but man it's just a s*** start. And let's not kid ourselves this is an awful 0-4 as well. They haven't really been in a single game late and many of the gaffes we've seen are eerily familiar of the last few Sox teams. Just not good fundamental baseball. Forget the fancy stuff just don't get TOOTBLANN'ed every other inning and throw the ball all over the diamond.

 

And try and tag down 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th.

 

I hope "work in progress" Micah Johnson doesnt become a victim of the "win now" mentality and be sacrificed/scapegoated ala Brian Anderson in 2006. Despite the baserunning gaffes, hes basically held his own.

 

And at least he has Vince Coleman around him to go over mistakes related to overaggressiveness.

 

 

I continue to believe the heart of the team should be the catcher, and thats one of our biggest weaknesses. AJ was a leader...guys like Russell Martin, Posey, Sal Perez, Yadi Molina, Wieters, McCann, etc. Has to be addressed.

 

Although I doubt they would be willing to take on Saltys bad deal....Hahn isnt in desperation mode YET.

Edited April 11, 2015 by caulfield12

[kitekrazy]

Indeed. Boston 20-29 at the end of May last year with a roster many predicted to contend. Blew it all up in July. I really hope the Sox can turn it around but man it's just a s*** start. And let's not kid ourselves this is an awful 0-4 as well. They haven't really been in a single game late and many of the gaffes we've seen are eerily familiar of the last few Sox teams. Just not good fundamental baseball. Forget the fancy stuff just don't get TOOTBLANN'ed every other inning and throw the ball all over the diamond.

 

And try and tag down 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th.

 

I don't think that will ever change until many people in the organization are gone or the team sold and gutted out. They went through phases of drafting athletes instead of baseball players. They try to turn those athletes into 1st basemen or a DH. They never give up on guys who can't catch a baseball and try to make them play in positions where defense is exposed. The philosophy seems to be the same. I'm amazed at organizations like the Cardinals who can let a Puljols go and still win. Some people just get tired of seeing the same movie with different actors. Those are probably your season ticket holders.

 

[caulfield12]

Marcus Semien 6/16 and almost out RBIing the whole Sox team with 5 already.

[chitownsportsfan]

I keep thinking back to Robin's comments about "I'm only managing kinda as a favor" or whatever the hell he said but it just seems to me the team is under prepared.

 

There was a clip of Ventura on mic'ed up MLB network I watched and granted it was spring but what I took was that guys feel a little TOO comfy around him. Eaton especially.

 

One way or another, things will shake out over the next couple months with Robin.

[caulfield12]

I don't think that will ever change until many people in the organization are gone or the team sold and gutted out. They went through phases of drafting athletes instead of baseball players. They try to turn those athletes into 1st basemen or a DH. They never give up on guys who can't catch a baseball and try to make them play in positions where defense is exposed. The philosophy seems to be the same. I'm amazed at organizations like the Cardinals who can let a Puljols go and still win. Some people just get tired of seeing the same movie with different actors. Those are probably your season ticket holders.

 

Or the KW stated philosophy of power hitters/big offensive numbers like 2000-2004 drawing more fans than Royals or even Ozzie Ball.

 

The defensive inadequacies of our current roster...patently obvious. Avisail's raw tools are off the charts but he still cant execute a fairly simple throw that should have cut down a runner at home in the early going.

[caulfield12]

I keep thinking back to Robin's comments about "I'm only managing kinda as a favor" or whatever the hell he said but it just seems to me the team is under prepared.

 

There was a clip of Ventura on mic'ed up MLB network I watched and granted it was spring but what I took was that guys feel a little TOO comfy around him. Eaton especially.

 

One way or another, things will shake out over the next couple months with Robin.

 

Imagine Eaton trying to pull that shi- with Pudge Fisk back in the day.

[chitownsportsfan]

This is puzzling: Gordon Beckham PA 9. Emilio: 1

 

The fuq man.

[kitekrazy]

This is puzzling: Gordon Beckham PA 9. Emilio: 1

 

The fuq man.

 

Ever get this strange feeling Beckham is going to be a starter again?

 

[caulfield12]

Royals now 4-0 too...bullpen unscored upon and Morales' bat coming around.

 

Passed on both Ethier ($25-35 million subsidy) and Yasmani Tomas for Kendrys.

 

Best start since 8-0 or 9-0 in 2003 (we believe/nosotros creemos year with Tony Pena and Jose Lima Time).

[caulfield12]

Ever get this strange feeling Beckham is going to be a starter again?

 

It better be Davidson, although his stats might approximate Olt with the Cubbies last year.