John Danks

[caulfield12]

The career number for McCarthy is just south of $71 million, btw.

 

Interestingly, his fb velocity has been in the mid 94's the last two years. As Ptac always notes, increased velocities (compared to his career averages) usually play some role in this spate of pitching injuries, particularly TJ surgeries.

[LittleHurt05]

They could always trade John Danks for Homer Bailey.

 

The White Sox would assume Bailey's $81 remaining from 2016-2019 (Reds would pay 2020 buyout of $5 million or White Sox would pay $25 million for that season).

 

In return, the Reds would take on Danks' contract through 2016 (essentially $26 million).

 

The White Sox would be taking on $55 million in extra salary, paying Bailey roughly $20 million per season.

 

So you could look at it as paying Bailey $13.75 million per year for four years....or they could use that $26 million in "new/created" money by dumping Danks to improve the club in 2015/16 cycle.

 

(Of course the problem is that would make keeping Samardzija impossible....but that's probably true regardless.)

 

1. Sale

2. Quintana

3. Rodon

4. Noesi/Sox prospect OR use the Danks money for a veteran placeholder along the lines of a Haren/Vogelsong/Volquez/Liriano

5. Homer Bailey

 

Then you'd still have this year's first rounder (likely another pitcher if not Happ or Tucker), Erik Johnson, Montas and Danish for starting pitching depth (not to mention the 2016 compensation pick...or they could end up trading Samardzija for another pitcher/catcher/3B/SS/OF).

 

It's also POSSIBLE Montas and Danish are ready to start for the Sox in 2016...but I wouldn't necessarily count on that happening, either. Plus breaking in another rookie to go along with Rodon in his first full year and Bailey coming off surgery would necessitate adding one more starting pitcher.

 

Finally, it's also another possibility Hector Noesi is still a part of the starting rotation in 2016, but I'm not counting on that, either.

 

Homer Bailey is about to have TJ surgery too

[caulfield12]

Homer Bailey is about to have TJ surgery too

 

 

Yes, I know.

 

That's the only way this trade makes SOME sense for both teams.

 

The White Sox don't absolutely need Danks to compete, whereas the Reds definitely need another starting pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

Yes, I know.

 

That's the only way this trade makes SOME sense for both teams.

 

The White Sox don't absolutely need Danks to compete, whereas the Reds definitely need another starting pitcher.

The White Sox do need John Danks or another pitcher. Again, Rodon cannot enter the rotation now and be there at the end of the season. You have to figure some other pitcher will be missing starts, so who do you have? Beck? Please. Montas? Get ready for a walkathon. Johnson? Perhaps, but we also know that could be real bad.

 

As bad as Danks supposedly is, there were over 600 starts made last season by pitchers who had higher ERAs. And at the very least, he is a Royals killer.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Kyyle23]

Homer Bailey is about to have TJ surgery too

 

 

Then cross him off the list

 

 

Yes, I know.

 

That's the only way this trade makes SOME sense for both teams.

 

The White Sox don't absolutely need Danks to compete, whereas the Reds definitely need another starting pitcher.

 

no, this makes zero sense. You dont trade your fifth starter for a guy who might play in 2016

[caulfield12]

The White Sox do need John Danks or another pitcher. Again, Rodon cannot enter the rotation now and be there at the end of the season. You have to figure some other pitcher will be missing starts, so who do you have?

 

As bad as Danks supposedly is, there were over 600 starts made last season by pitchers who had higher ERAs.

 

 

And how many of those starts were made by pitchers (with higher ERA's and WHIPs) earning $13 million or more per season? If you were Rick Hahn and you threw that statistic at John Mozeliak and asked what he was willing to offer for Mr. Danks, his response STILL would be how much would you still like to pay for him to pitch for the Cardinals? At any rate, we'll find out exactly how he's perceived around the league in the weeks to come.

 

In all likelihood, guys like Pat Maholm, Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza will come into play first.

 

And I would be perfectly content to use Erik Johnson or Montas for the 6-8 starts to bridge us to the end of the season.

 

We are already at 3-4 starts....that gives Rodon something like 18-22, which is quite reasonable.

[caulfield12]

 

Then cross him off the list

 

 

 

 

no, this makes zero sense. You dont trade your fifth starter for a guy who might play in 2016

 

You do when he's a fifth starter who is overpaid and underproductive.

 

It's very simple....that $26 million will go a long ways in fixing the problem of Danks' early departure.

 

And our fifth starter would/could be Noesi, it doesn't have to be Danks. Heck, it could be Erik Johnson, Beck or Frankie Montas, too.

 

Finally, after all these articles about TJ surgery since last year....you really believe that Homer Bailey's going to be out TWO FULL SEASONS? When has that ever happened in the last 10-15 years?

 

Why would teams take Hoffman, Fedde, Matuella, Kirby and Aiken so high?

Edited April 28, 2015 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

And how many of those starts were made by pitchers (with higher ERA's and WHIPs) earning $13 million or more per season? If you were Rick Hahn and you threw that statistic at John Mozeliak and asked what he was willing to offer for Mr. Danks, his response STILL would be how much would you still like to pay for him to pitch for the Cardinals? At any rate, we'll find out exactly how he's perceived around the league in the weeks to come.

 

In all likelihood, guys like Pat Maholm, Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza will come into play first.

 

And I would be perfectly content to use Erik Johnson or Montas for the 6-8 starts to bridge us to the end of the season.

 

We are already at 3-4 starts....that gives Rodon something like 18-22, which is quite reasonable.

Who cares how much money he is making? IT DOESN'T COME OUT OF YOUR BANK ACCOUNT. The White Sox have a plan for Rodon. And as much as some here think Danks is only in the rotation based on his contract, doesn't it seem a little weird the guy who gets skipped is Noesi?

 

The fact is the starting depth for the White Sox is thin, dumping Danks to save money, and thinning it out even more, makes no sense.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Kyyle23]

You do when he's a fifth starter who is overpaid and underproductive.

 

It's very simple....that $26 million will go a long ways in fixing the problem of Danks' early departure.

 

And our fifth starter would/could be Noesi, it doesn't have to be Danks. Heck, it could be Erik Johnson, Beck or Frankie Montas, too.

 

Finally, after all these articles about TJ surgery since last year....you really believe that Homer Bailey's going to be out TWO FULL SEASONS? When has that ever happened in the last 10-15 years?

 

Why would teams take Hoffman, Fedde, Matuella, Kirby and Aiken so high?

 

Caulfield, he hasnt even GOTTEN HIS SURGERY YET.

[ewokpelts]

there is no way Danks is going no where, esp with his salary. if the Angels had to pick up what of Hamilton's salary, can you imagine how much the sox will have to eat.

 

now if they add a secondary player to add to the mix to entice Stl, then who can it be.

 

either way, Danks is the sox's property until his contract is up.

Danks is owed much less and for one less year.

[Dick Allen]

You do when he's a fifth starter who is overpaid and underproductive.

 

It's very simple....that $26 million will go a long ways in fixing the problem of Danks' early departure.

 

And our fifth starter would/could be Noesi, it doesn't have to be Danks. Heck, it could be Erik Johnson, Beck or Frankie Montas, too.

 

Finally, after all these articles about TJ surgery since last year....you really believe that Homer Bailey's going to be out TWO FULL SEASONS? When has that ever happened in the last 10-15 years?

 

Why would teams take Hoffman, Fedde, Matuella, Kirby and Aiken so high?

TJ surgery worked out real well for Gavin Floyd. You can't believe the money the Sox owe Danks, yet want to add $55 million on top of it for a guy who won't even pitch for at least a year.

[caulfield12]

TJ surgery worked out real well for Gavin Floyd. You can't believe the money the Sox owe Danks, yet want to add $55 million on top of it for a guy who won't even pitch for at least a year.

 

So how exactly is using Gavin Floyd as one counterexample (and Ptac would tear it apart because the original problem was the screws inserted and the bone/muscle tearing apart, not TJ or ligament replacement surgery) supposed to prove anything?

 

Many are arguing that Josh Hamilton for Danks would be a very good deal for the Sox, and, looking at his stats from 2012 on...there's very little to indicate that would be a good risk performance-wise, not to mention the likelihood of another relapse.

[Dick Allen]

So how exactly is using Gavin Floyd as one counterexample (and Ptac would tear it apart because the original problem was the screws inserted and the bone/muscle tearing apart, not TJ or ligament replacement surgery) supposed to prove anything?

 

Many are arguing that Josh Hamilton for Danks would be a very good deal for the Sox, and, looking at his stats from 2012 on...there's very little to indicate that would be a good risk performance-wise, not to mention the likelihood of another relapse.

By the time Homer Bailey is ready to pitch, and no one knows how effectively, the obligation to John Danks will be close to $0.00, if not $0.00.

 

PTAC would not tear my example apart. He would tear apart the notion that TJ surgery has a 100% success rate, and that everyone comes back just as good as before.

 

Danks for Bailey would be a horrific trade for the White Sox.

[Kyyle23]

So how exactly is using Gavin Floyd as one counterexample (and Ptac would tear it apart because the original problem was the screws inserted and the bone/muscle tearing apart, not TJ or ligament replacement surgery) supposed to prove anything?

 

Many are arguing that Josh Hamilton for Danks would be a very good deal for the Sox, and, looking at his stats from 2012 on...there's very little to indicate that would be a good risk performance-wise, not to mention the likelihood of another relapse.

 

I know that an argument with you hits no return when you start using other posters supposed arguments as your proof.

 

im done here

[Eminor3rd]

Dumping a problem for another problem is bound to be a wash. Danks for anything that would be worth Danks would be like that, whether for Bailey, Hamilton, etc.

[caulfield12]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tommy-john-su...-in-the-majors/

 

We might as well forget about taking Brady Aiken.

 

In the end, nobody knows with 100% accuracy what will happen...the charts/graphs certainly aren't as positive for TJ surgery recovery as the perception.

 

Of course, for EVERY Gavin Floyd, there's a Mr. Harvey with the Mets, who seemingly hasn't missed a beat in his comeback.

 

 

But if you’re curious about the typical post-surgery career for just those pitchers who do get back to major league baseball, the median games played was 102 and the median innings pitched was 167 for all major league pitchers who underwent the surgery between 1974 and 2009. Even these totals hardly make for exciting post-surgery careers.

 

While the numbers are far from complete, it is also worthwhile understanding that of all major league pitchers who had Tommy John surgery in the past five years — who have had one to four seasons to theoretically recover (2010-2013) plus one to four seasons to theoretically contribute (2011-2014), the median contribution has been 29 appearances and 47 innings pitched. So: that mental math you do when it’s announced that a pitcher on your favorite team is having Tommy John surgery, when you picture them contributing at the same level as you’re used to one calendar year from then? It’s not as reliable as you may believe.

[caulfield12]

Dumping a problem for another problem is bound to be a wash. Danks for anything that would be worth Danks would be like that, whether for Bailey, Hamilton, etc.

 

Agreed, although it will be interesting to track Giolito, Fedde, Hoffman and Matuella.

 

Giolito and Harvey certainly appear to have suffered few side effects. We'll just have to wait and see with Jose Fernandez. With Strasburg, he doesn't seem to have returned to quite the same form he exhibited coming out of SD State.

[southsider2k5]

And how many of those starts were made by pitchers (with higher ERA's and WHIPs) earning $13 million or more per season? If you were Rick Hahn and you threw that statistic at John Mozeliak and asked what he was willing to offer for Mr. Danks, his response STILL would be how much would you still like to pay for him to pitch for the Cardinals? At any rate, we'll find out exactly how he's perceived around the league in the weeks to come.

 

In all likelihood, guys like Pat Maholm, Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza will come into play first.

 

And I would be perfectly content to use Erik Johnson or Montas for the 6-8 starts to bridge us to the end of the season.

 

We are already at 3-4 starts....that gives Rodon something like 18-22, which is quite reasonable.

 

Bingo. As I already showed, Scott Carroll is already putting up numbers that are equal, or better than, John Danks.

[southsider2k5]

Who cares how much money he is making? IT DOESN'T COME OUT OF YOUR BANK ACCOUNT. The White Sox have a plan for Rodon. And as much as some here think Danks is only in the rotation based on his contract, doesn't it seem a little weird the guy who gets skipped is Noesi?

 

The fact is the starting depth for the White Sox is thin, dumping Danks to save money, and thinning it out even more, makes no sense.

 

Common sense dictates that if the Sox have an extra $7 million laying around, and are in the race, they will use it. Maybe that brings us a catcher or 3B, and makes the team even better.

[LDF]

Common sense dictates that if the Sox have an extra $7 million laying around, and are in the race, they will use it. Maybe that brings us a catcher or 3B, and makes the team even better.

 

that money that Danks is getting paid, is partly a reimbursement for getting rid of his agent so he can sign with the sox.

[Eminor3rd]

You guys are all a part of that WSI groupthink. Trading for a guy who's out for over a year, will have had two TJ surgeries and is owed almost 90 million IS the right move.

 

Wait, Bailey is gonna be on his second? Yeah, sorry caulfield, I think there might be literally NO precedent for someone being a successful starter after two TJs. Some relievers, sure.

[chw42]

Maybe the Dodgers will be interested with McCarthy tearing his UCL.

[elrockinMT]

Good ol' Phil Rogers. The White Sox might as well put a sign out front of USCF that states "free to a not so good home" with John Danks picture on it.

 

Of course STL would get him and turn him back into a good pitcher, because that is what happens to any P who goes to STL.

 

 

Come to think of it you are right. Phil and his speculation again to gt things stirred up, I may agree that Danks could be expendable but not for free and you have to know we have Rodon actually ready o compete at this level. Worse thing that could happen is to pitch Rodon in a game and have him do good and if that happens wait for the screams to put him in the rotation and get rid of Danks. But, then have Carlos stumble

[Y2Jimmy0]

Phil Rogers actually did this with the Youkilis trade. It's the only time I can remember where it actually comes to fruition though.

[ptatc]

Wait, Bailey is gonna be on his second? Yeah, sorry caulfield, I think there might be literally NO precedent for someone being a successful starter after two TJs. Some relievers, sure.

This is the key point. It means that the pitcher is not willing to change whatever caused the first surgery or that they tried and they weren't effective with the change.