The White Sox Looming Decision

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...oming-decision/

 

If there was one overarching theme of this last offseason, it was the surprise push towards contention from a lot of teams that didn’t quite look quite ready to win. The Padres were the most aggressive unexpected buyer, eschewing rebuilding to instead load up for a run in 2015, but they weren’t the only team to decide to capitalize on the current unprecedented level of parity in the sport. Over in the AL, the White Sox made a similar series of moves, bringing in Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Zach Duke in their offseason makeover. With Chris Sale and Jose Abreu at the top of their games, Rick Hahn decided to push in on 2015 and see if they could follow in the Royals footsteps.

 

The pre-season forecasts, though, never really bought into it. On Opening Day, our Playoff Odds page had the White Sox going 78-84, with just an 8% chance of winning the AL Central and a 6% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots; the Rangers and Twins were the only AL teams with a lower chance of reaching the postseason. There was a scenario where things broke right and the White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the team’s role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team was expected to get replacement level production.

 

That hasn’t happened.

 

The forecasts saw big holes at catcher, second base, third base, right field, and the last two spots in the rotation; so far, Tyler Flowers, Micah Johnson, Conor Gillaspie, Avisail Garcia, John Danks, and Hector Noesi have all been below replacement level. That’s just too many voids for a contender, and when guys like LaRoche, Cabrera, and Samardzija struggle too, then you end getting pummeled by a lousy Twins team on your way to an 8-14 record after the season’s first month.

 

That’s where the White Sox are today, after getting outscored 31-8 in their four game series against Minnesota. And it’s not like they’ve played better than their record; by BaseRuns, they should actually be 7-15, and have played worse than any other team in baseball, including the Brewers, the team that just fired their manager. The White Sox aren’t actually the worst team in baseball, but this isn’t a team that has played well and just run into some bad luck, or given up runs at the wrong time; they’ve just been straight up awful.

 

Given the fact that Chicago is now staring at a seven game deficit to the Tigers, with the Royals only a half game behind Detroit, their already-low Playoff Odds have now sunk to the floor. As of this morning, our forecasts give the White Sox a 2% chance of winning the division and a 3% chance of capturing a Wild Card spot; they’re still ahead of the Rangers and Twins, but now just barely ahead of Minnesota, and they’re hanging out in the same range as teams who either have admitted that they’re building for the future or are about to be.

 

And so now, we’re about to find out just how committed to 2015 Rick Hahn really is. There is still theoretically time for the season to turn around, but the White Sox don’t really have 140 more games in which to try and overcome their slow start, because 56 of those games come after the July 31st trade deadline; their final decision point will come around Game 100 or so. So they have roughly 80 games to get back in the race, and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play ~.650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. I love Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but I don’t see a scenario where this roster is capable of winning two out of every three games for three months.

 

So, now, the question is how long of a leash Hahn gives this roster before he starts exploring present-for-future trades. Doug Melvin has already raised the white flag in Milwaukee, but noted over the weekend how difficult it is to find a trade partner in May:

 

“There’s not many teams looking to make moves at this time of year,” said Melvin. “Very few teams are open to taking on money at this time of year. You get similar answers: ‘We’re still looking at our club right now.’

 

“The frustrating part is you would like to make some moves and do some things. But, early in the year, the only thing you can do is (between) your club and Triple-A. Those moves aren’t as impactful as we’d like to be able to do.”

 

You can’t sell if no one is buying, but at the same time, waiting too long to sell could be especially problematic for teams like Chicago and Milwaukee. While both teams have some players of value who could be traded, neither team is likely to trade their franchise players; I don’t expect we’ll see Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Sale, or Jose Abreu changing teams any time soon. And both teams are in their current positions because their role players aren’t as good as they needed to be, so they’re generally marketing low-performing guys who aren’t that great to begin with.

 

And once the trade season really heats up, those guys are going to become Plan C or Plan D for teams actively looking to buy. Jeff Samardzija is a nice trade chip, but he’s not Johnny Cueto, and if the White Sox wait for the Reds to fall out of the race, Samardzija is very quickly going to become a secondary option. The Cubs anticipated this same problem last year, trading Samardzija to Oakland on July 5th, but the White Sox probably shouldn’t even wait that long this year. At that point, the Reds are likely to be at least listening to offers for Cueto, even if they probably won’t trade him until after the All-Star Game in Cincinnati on July 14th.

 

While the White Sox will need Samardzija to start pitching better in order to re-establish his value, I’d imagine their best chance at getting a strong return is by selling early enough to put some separation between he and the rest of the starting pitching market, as well as giving the buyer more starts than if they wait until July. The Red Sox, for instance, may be able to be lured into a deal for Samardzija sooner than later, given their desire to avoid long-term commitments to starting pitchers. The Dodgers seem content to plow through every arm they have in Triple-A before they make a trade, but they’re another potential buyer who likely sees value in giving a bit less to shore up their regular season rotation knowing they don’t need another ace to make two starts in October.

 

And, of course, Samardzija isn’t the only guy the White Sox can sell. Alexei Ramirez is off to a horrendous start, but still projects as a league average shortstop going forward; teams like the Padres could get a significant boost from replacing their flotsam with a guy who can still play the position and hit a bit. But again, Milwaukee might also put Jean Segura on the block as part of their blow-it-up plan, so there’s probably a benefit to striking first, making a deal early rather than hoping that another contender who should have a strong interest in Ramirez emerges.

 

That isn’t to say the White Sox have to start the firesale tomorrow. There is still the core of a good team here, but there are just too many weak spots for this roster to make a real serious run in 2015. It could have worked, but it just didn’t, and now it’s probably time for the White Sox to start looking towards 2016 again. Swap out some of the go-for-it pieces they acquired over the winter for things that will help more next year, and then spend the next nine months trying to make sure that the scrubs around the the 2016 stars aren’t quite so scrubby.

[shysocks]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...oming-decision/

My first reaction to seeing this headline is that Cameron has been itching to write this piece. I'm grumpy so **** him.

 

Too early to sell anyway because nobody tradeable is performing.

[LDF]

 

excellent find. i disagree with one important part of that article.

 

but i do agree on some, esp the holes that we, the fans were complaining about.

 

we and again, for my part, i was looking at the beginning of the rebuild. i was static about it. then it stop.

 

however, most i think saw the improvement and realize that there were little room for error. we or I as a fan had for good luck and high hopes of the team performing as many thought they would.

 

now, i can see all the naysayers that were hibernating coming out now and pointing fingers and listing stats to prove themselves right.

 

maybe they were, and we as fans put too much faith in this team, our team.

[Eminor3rd]

The thing about this year isn't that the team had holes like the projections said, it's that even the GOOD players have sucked. Aside from health, this season almost could not have gone worse than it has.

 

It's just a frustrating pile of crap and Cameron's probably right that it's already too big a hole to dig out from, considering that we just happen to be in a division with the two top teams in the AL so far.

[LVSoxFan]

As many points as this guy has, I mean: really? After one month? He wants to blow up the team? This reeks of knee-jerk or what two of you have already said: he's just been waiting to write this piece.

 

I really don't think the players are the issue here.

[LDF]

The thing about this year isn't that the team had holes like the projections said, it's that even the GOOD players have sucked. Aside from health, this season almost could not have gone worse than it has.

 

It's just a frustrating pile of crap and Cameron's probably right that it's already too big a hole to dig out from, considering that we just happen to be in a division with the two top teams in the AL so far.

 

yeah, you hit is on the head right there. too big of a hole to work out of it.

 

that is all i am going to point out, that hasn't been been mention in many other threads.

 

nice find.

[bmags]

The thing about this year isn't that the team had holes like the projections said, it's that even the GOOD players have sucked. Aside from health, this season almost could not have gone worse than it has.

 

It's just a frustrating pile of crap and Cameron's probably right that it's already too big a hole to dig out from, considering that we just happen to be in a division with the two top teams in the AL so far.

 

I've said it before, but if someone had put the actual hitting lines of our team into a predictions post they would have been laughed at as the most pessimistic poster of all time.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

As many points as this guy has, I mean: really? After one month? He wants to blow up the team? This reeks of knee-jerk or what two of you have already said: he's just been waiting to write this piece.

 

I really don't think the players are the issue here.

 

Blowing up a team after a month isn't realistic in MLB. As was said in the article, no one even wants to trade right now. Your options involve firing personnel, waiting for the team to play better, or releasing/calling up guys.

[bmags]

Back in the days before unbalanced schedules, we could have pointed to June's interleague run and thought we could get back on track.

 

Something like 2010's 22-7 run.

 

Oh well.

[LDF]

As many points as this guy has, I mean: really? After one month? He wants to blow up the team? This reeks of knee-jerk or what two of you have already said: he's just been waiting to write this piece.

 

I really don't think the players are the issue here.

 

they have to take some of the responsibility in this, but i put most of this on lady luck followed closely by management.

[LDF]

 

an interesting point was made on realizing and putting the prediction on the lineup. nice thought process.

 

i would have look at the players the sox got, the rtn players and the number they put up, and and the strength of the pitching, excluding Rodon.

 

i still would have put my money on this team doing a hell alot better than it has. i did not, for the life of me see this implosion.

[LVSoxFan]

If we're having this discussion at the end of May then it would make sense to me. Yeah, we suck right now but again: it's been a month. April at that.

 

The 2005 Sox were picked to finish fourth; granted, they came out blazing and never looked back (until September) but people were excited about this team for a reason, including the players themselves. I'm not giving up on them just yet.

[shysocks]

Back in the days before unbalanced schedules, we could have pointed to June's interleague run and thought we could get back on track.

 

Something like 2010's 22-7 run.

 

Oh well.

I pointed to that run in the Friday game thread (it was 26-5, actually) and cited that the 8-11 Sox had the same winning % as the 2010 team (24-33) when it started the run.

 

Not sure what to make of the road record and if that's on Robin, or if the team was rattled from stewing in Baltimore with nothing to do or if they were too sick to perform. It's all still small sample and I think the offense will start to do what it's supposed to do, but the hole is becoming too deep.

 

And when Dave Cameron sits there and writes this I-told-you-so column (sure man, I know you guessed that a bunch of regulars would have a wRC+ hovering in the range of 50) he can just **** right off a cliff.

[bmags]

TBH, I've never seen "it's early" ever turn out to be prophetic for a comeback.

 

To me, this is the healthiest and most ready the team should be, and that version just came out and got smoked.

[The Ginger Kid]

I am surprised there haven't been any moves of some sort, like calling up Sanchez and sending Micah down. Something to shake things up and possibly improve the defense which is beyond brutal.

[Wanne]

Did he really write: "Avisail Garcia, --- have all been below replacement level."?!? uhhhh...ok.

[LDF]

I pointed to that run in the Friday game thread (it was 26-5, actually) and cited that the 8-11 Sox had the same winning % as the 2010 team (24-33) when it started the run.

 

Not sure what to make of the road record and if that's on Robin, or if the team was rattled from stewing in Baltimore with nothing to do or if they were too sick to perform. It's all still small sample and I think the offense will start to do what it's supposed to do, but the hole is becoming too deep.

 

And when Dave Cameron sits there and writes this I-told-you-so column (sure man, I know you guessed that a bunch of regulars would have a wRC+ hovering in the range of 50) he can just **** right off a cliff.

 

nice post.

 

for me, it is highlighting the holes this team has. the holes we as fans knew and yet was hoping for a better start. this start is a freak of nature kind of implosion. no one in there right mind could have predicted this start.

 

however and there is always gong to be a however, he really is shinning the light on the management side and pointing the fingers at them. they can't get rid of the owners, gm's but they could address it with getting rid of the manager.

[LDF]

Did he really write: "Avisail Garcia, --- have all been below replacement level."?!? uhhhh...ok.

 

yeah the typical hiding in the weeds to jump out and start pointing fingers.

[LDF]

I am surprised there haven't been any moves of some sort, like calling up Sanchez and sending Micah down. Something to shake things up and possibly improve the defense which is beyond brutal.

 

yeah that is the other problem i am having, they are late in really addressing what could be a remedy, to fix it.

[shysocks]

Once Micah was named the starter, he earned a longer rope than this. Sending him down would be a panic move. So would firing Robin, although I admit that would placate me a little.

[LDF]

 

people at work are saying i am in a ranting rage..... i don't think so. am i ??

 

oh well, i will take a break from this. i really don't think i am.

 

peace.

[Dick Allen]

This guy gave the White Sox an 8% chance to begin with and now feels the need to pat himself on the back.

 

There is no question the team has been terrible, but as I pointed out yesterday, during the course of a 6 month season, stretches where you lose like this happens to just about everyone. And I would guess if you looked at numbers during these stretches, players numbers are generally awful. I looked and Detroit and KC last year, the 2 teams that made the playoffs. Detroit had a 7-17 stretch, KC had a 9-17 stretch. The 2005 White Sox had a 5-12 stretch and a 7-12 stretch. If the team truly is as bad as they are playing, they have no chance anyway. But to think a team that hasn't homered in almost 2 weeks and has 1 starter with an ERA below 5.00 is what it is, well, I don't agree.

[Butter Parque]

If we're having this discussion at the end of May then it would make sense to me. Yeah, we suck right now but again: it's been a month. April at that.

 

The 2005 Sox were picked to finish fourth; granted, they came out blazing and never looked back (until September) but people were excited about this team for a reason, including the players themselves. I'm not giving up on them just yet.

 

People were excited about 2011 as well. People can be dummies.

 

[flavum]

I think the right thing to do is give it this week, at least.

 

4-2, give it another month and see where you are after 50 games

3-3, give it another week and re-evaluate

2-4, fire Ventura

[Y2Jimmy0]

Dave Cameron is the smartest guy on the planet. All you have to do is ask him.