Ventura told stuff by front office

[LDF]

 

i don't understand, why is Balta fickle??? what is the reason that makes him so??

 

just wondering.

[LDF]

And yet ... "Ventura told stuff by front office" is the thread we're in, so someone in the front office is fickle enough to speak to the manager 1.25 months into the season.

 

that was completely a bad PR move... that in itself tells a lot to anyone that there is problems in the FO.

[caulfield12]

What the A's did, while perhaps suggestive of rebuilding for others, is their standard operating procedure at this point.

 

 

And Josh Donaldson is still one of the best players in the game. That was all Beane's ego. As an Oakland fan that move would make me furious.

[caulfield12]

i don't understand, why is Balta fickle??? what is the reason that makes him so??

 

just wondering.

 

Because he is being realistic/pragmatic instead of blindly optimistic.

[Chisoxfn]

If anyone would take Danks they'd have moved him by now.

 

Shark...letting him go doesn't fix the payroll mess they created since he's not under contract, and with the way he's pitching right now just settling for the crappy draft pick is starting to seem like better than what we'll be able to get in trade.

 

Ramirez...yes we could possibly move him so I'm hoping he picks it up with the bats more in the next month, and that does help the payroll problem a lot...but then we have the delightful middle infield of Tim Anderson as a rookie who could be in AAA and Micah Johnson as a rushed sophomore next year, which is pretty **** far from a competitive infield.

What payroll mess did we create? LaRoche is fine and fairly paid (I am going to with long history of him having slow starts and then doing very good). Melky, well, we will see, but I certainly wouldn't jump to that conclusion based upon 30 games. I don't think the Sox have a payroll mess, other then Danks who they are stuck with (Ramirez / Shark / etc come off the books this year so nothing going there).

[Chisoxfn]

No, but letting Lester walk, trading Samardzija for zero established players, and trading away one of the best 3b in the game are very much rebuilding moves.

 

If we traded away Quintana, let Sale walk, and traded away Abreu...I don't think we'd care if we brought in LaRoche to replace him, we'd still call that rebuilding.

They aren't all that indifferent from moves the A's have made over their history (including during seasons where they plan to contend the following year).

[Balta1701]

What payroll mess did we create? LaRoche is fine and fairly paid (I am going to with long history of him having slow starts and then doing very good). Melky, well, we will see, but I certainly wouldn't jump to that conclusion based upon 30 games. I don't think the Sox have a payroll mess, other then Danks who they are stuck with (Ramirez / Shark / etc come off the books this year so nothing going there).

Ramirez coming off the books this year when he's only owed $10 mil next year would seem like a pretty silly move to me unless he keeps being this bad of a hitter all year.

 

If Ramirez comes off the books and Samardzija leaves, then their fixed payroll is basically equal to (within error of cutting guys like Flowers loose) their opening day payroll in 2015 without a single addition. If they pick up Alexei's deal and make no other moves, their payroll will grow by >$10 million next season regardless of whether they finish this season in the playoffs or win 75 games again.

 

If the White Sox go into next year with the same starting 9, including Gillaspie and Flowers as arb guys, without filling any of their holes and with Samardzija gone, seemingly a weaker roster or at best a lateral one (Rodon replaces Samardzija and player x takes the 5th starter spot) their payroll grows by 10% or so.

 

That's why I call this a mess. They're on pace to have an increase of about 2000 in ticket sales this year over last as of now, but they've already spent more than that next year unless they trade someone away. They need to actually win games and be competitive just to support what is already on the books. Otherwise, they're going to need to trade someone away to stay in the black.

[Chisoxfn]

Ramirez coming off the books this year when he's only owed $10 mil next year would seem like a pretty silly move to me unless he keeps being this bad of a hitter all year.

 

If Ramirez comes off the books and Samardzija leaves, then their fixed payroll is basically equal to (within error of cutting guys like Flowers loose) their opening day payroll in 2015 without a single addition. If they pick up Alexei's deal and make no other moves, their payroll will grow by >$10 million next season regardless of whether they finish this season in the playoffs or win 75 games again.

 

If the White Sox go into next year with the same starting 9, including Gillaspie and Flowers as arb guys, without filling any of their holes and with Samardzija gone, seemingly a weaker roster or at best a lateral one (Rodon replaces Samardzija and player x takes the 5th starter spot) their payroll grows by 10% or so.

 

That's why I call this a mess. They're on pace to have an increase of about 2000 in ticket sales this year over last as of now, but they've already spent more than that next year unless they trade someone away. They need to actually win games and be competitive just to support what is already on the books. Otherwise, they're going to need to trade someone away to stay in the black.

The payroll is 15th in baseball this year. If you took Shark and Ramirez off the books (which you could do pretty easily, that would move the current 2015 payroll down 18M. That would put them squarely with the Braves (23rd highest payroll in baseball). Every team will have some form of arb hits, etc, so payrolls will move anyway. Rodon replacing Shark and the Sox using Montas or Beck or someone else (or inserting top prospect acquired for Shark) does not increase the payroll by 10%. Again this is all hypothetical anyway but the Sox in no way shape or form, currently are in payroll hell. Not when you look at the macro major league environment.

 

And with those MLB tv revenues in place and the various contracts getting handed on tv deals, I'm not worried about the Sox ability to field a payroll in the 115M range. I just flat out am not concerned about that. They may not want to, but they can do that and then some and should be able to. Local TV deals alone (based upon new terms) could practically drive a $100M payroll alone.

[Balta1701]

The payroll is 15th in baseball this year. If you took Shark and Ramirez off the books (which you could do pretty easily, that would move the current 2015 payroll down 18M. That would put them squarely with the Braves (23rd highest payroll in baseball). Every team will have some form of arb hits, etc, so payrolls will move anyway. Rodon replacing Shark and the Sox using Montas or Beck or someone else (or inserting top prospect acquired for Shark) does not increase the payroll by 10%. Again this is all hypothetical anyway but the Sox in no way shape or form, currently are in payroll hell. Not when you look at the macro major league environment.

 

And with those MLB tv revenues in place and the various contracts getting handed on tv deals, I'm not worried about the Sox ability to field a payroll in the 115M range. I just flat out am not concerned about that. They may not want to, but they can do that and then some and should be able to. Local TV deals alone (based upon new terms) could practically drive a $100M payroll alone.

That's not what does it. Abreu goes up $3 million next year. Robertson goes up $1 mil. Melky goes up $1 mil. Sale goes up $3 mil. Quintana goes up $2 mil. Eaton goes up $2 mil. Duke goes up $500k. Bonifacio either goes up $1 mil or has a $1 mil buyout. Then throw in a good number of arbitration guys like Jennings, Garcia, etc. Add all those together and "Just to stay right where we are with no Samardzija" the payroll goes up substantially from the $117 million starting point this year.

 

The White Sox break-even point right now is probably around $120 million. That's consistent with what they've spent this year and its consistent with the Forbes numbers. They're on the book for more than that next year if Alexei is still around. Hence, revenue MUST grow to keep pace with what we've already committed to spend, and that's assuming Samardzija walks. They have already committed to spend a number substantially greater than $115M.

[Chisoxfn]

That's not what does it. Abreu goes up $3 million next year. Robertson goes up $1 mil. Melky goes up $1 mil. Sale goes up $3 mil. Quintana goes up $2 mil. Eaton goes up $2 mil. Duke goes up $500k. Bonifacio either goes up $1 mil or has a $1 mil buyout. Then throw in a good number of arbitration guys like Jennings, Garcia, etc. Add all those together and "Just to stay right where we are with no Samardzija" the payroll goes up substantially from the $117 million starting point this year.

 

The White Sox break-even point right now is probably around $120 million. That's consistent with what they've spent this year and its consistent with the Forbes numbers. They're on the book for more than that next year if Alexei is still around. Hence, revenue MUST grow to keep pace with what we've already committed to spend, and that's assuming Samardzija walks. They have already committed to spend a number greater than $115M.

And in general, payrolls go up, so yes, White Sox payroll will trend up a bit next year, but so will vast majority of other teams. Average payroll increased 8.2% between 13 & 14. I don't think anyone will look at the Sox and say wow they are in bad shape (from a payroll perspective). I would have said that a few years ago, but not today. We could say that a year from now or two years from now (depending on what various guys do, but that isn't the case today). I also think by seasons end we won't be saying that (as I still think this team contends...doesn't win, but contends). Its defense is so atrocious though.

[Balta1701]

And in general, payrolls go up, so yes, White Sox payroll will trend up a bit next year, but so will vast majority of other teams. Average payroll increased 8.2% between 13 & 14. I don't think anyone will look at the Sox and say wow they are in bad shape (from a payroll perspective). I would have said that a few years ago, but not today. We could say that a year from now or two years from now (depending on what various guys do, but that isn't the case today). I also think by seasons end we won't be saying that (as I still think this team contends...doesn't win, but contends). Its defense is so atrocious though.

The thing that puts us in bad shape is being a losing team this season because there's no money left to upgrade in free agency unless we downgrade somewhere else, and its possible that with erosion of ticket sales after being a losing team again this year the shape could be even worse. That state would leave trades as the only option to upgrade.

 

The answer to that is to stop putting together losing teams, but alas.

[Chisoxfn]

The thing that puts us in bad shape is being a losing team this season because there's no money left to upgrade in free agency unless we downgrade somewhere else, and its possible that with erosion of ticket sales after being a losing team again this year the shape could be even worse. That state would leave trades as the only option to upgrade.

 

The answer to that is to stop putting together losing teams, but alas.

I am not that worried. This is a team that should get better, not worse. Are they ready for mainstream now, no. Do they need certain guys on current roster to step up, yes, but they also still have pieces in the farm and that will be an integral part to where they end up. This doomsay talk is just crazy this early in the season, that is all I am saying. If the Sox wanted to they could likely move Shark for some top prospects and if Alexei gets going they should be able to get something valuable for him. I am sure if they wanted to, Robertson could go somewhere (I don't think they would move him).

 

If we think Eaton is as bad as he played and Sale is as bad as he played and Shark is as bad as he played, then sure. Eaton has shorter track record so he could be, but I don't think Shark / Sale / Q are going to stink all year when they have proven to be above average (and in Sale / Q's case extremely above avg big league players). Our front 3 pitchers have been lousy and we are just a bit out of the wild card. They will pitch better and probably get in a run where they are all consistently pitching better (to get back in line with their historical norms) and at that point we are talking about what should be an extended winning streak.

 

My concerns are whether we can win pitch over the D, deal with the bad starts from danks / Noesi (maybe Rodon helps with that, but he'll have his issues too but hopefully its more pluses then N).

[Balta1701]

I am not that worried. This is a team that should get better, not worse. Are they ready for mainstream now, no. Do they need certain guys on current roster to step up, yes, but they also still have pieces in the farm and that will be an integral part to where they end up. This doomsay talk is just crazy this early in the season, that is all I am saying. If the Sox wanted to they could likely move Shark for some top prospects and if Alexei gets going they should be able to get something valuable for him. I am sure if they wanted to, Robertson could go somewhere (I don't think they would move him).

 

If we think Eaton is as bad as he played and Sale is as bad as he played and Shark is as bad as he played, then sure. Eaton has shorter track record so he could be, but I don't think Shark / Sale / Q are going to stink all year when they have proven to be above average (and in Sale / Q's case extremely above avg big league players). Our front 3 pitchers have been lousy and we are just a bit out of the wild card. They will pitch better and probably get in a run where they are all consistently pitching better (to get back in line with their historical norms) and at that point we are talking about what should be an extended winning streak.

 

My concerns are whether we can win pitch over the D, deal with the bad starts from danks / Noesi (maybe Rodon helps with that, but he'll have his issues too but hopefully its more pluses then N).

And I honestly disagree. I think this is who they are.

 

I also don't think they're going to be able to get a "top" prospect for Samardzija any more. Even if he gets into a good groove the next 2 months, by the time the deadline rolls around his numbers for the season will be decent at best. He's established that he's an inconsistent starter and he is very unlikely to be the best pitcher available on the trade market. If he were to go on a streak for the next 2 months that equaled his great start to 2014, his ERA on the season would be 3.63. More likely we go into the trade deadline with him having an ERA around 4, worse if he has any other terribly bad starts. He's a guy some team would take but he's not a guy you're going to pay through the roof for.

 

Robertson going somewhere is, IMO, what they don't want to do but might have to in order to get the payroll for 2016 under control.

[southsider2k5]

That's not what does it. Abreu goes up $3 million next year. Robertson goes up $1 mil. Melky goes up $1 mil. Sale goes up $3 mil. Quintana goes up $2 mil. Eaton goes up $2 mil. Duke goes up $500k. Bonifacio either goes up $1 mil or has a $1 mil buyout. Then throw in a good number of arbitration guys like Jennings, Garcia, etc. Add all those together and "Just to stay right where we are with no Samardzija" the payroll goes up substantially from the $117 million starting point this year.

 

The White Sox break-even point right now is probably around $120 million. That's consistent with what they've spent this year and its consistent with the Forbes numbers. They're on the book for more than that next year if Alexei is still around. Hence, revenue MUST grow to keep pace with what we've already committed to spend, and that's assuming Samardzija walks. They have already committed to spend a number substantially greater than $115M.

 

Does that account for the draft and international money they aren't spending this year?

[Dick Allen]

They also have Keppimger coming off the books and Paulie has a million or so coming off. This idea that they will have no money is a joke. How the hell were they goimg to pay Samardjiza if they extended him? They made $31 million kast year with revenues about as low as they could be.

[Balta1701]

Does that account for the draft and international money they aren't spending this year?

No.

[Balta1701]

They also have Keppimger coming off the books and Paulie has a million or so coming off. This idea that they will have no money is a joke. How the hell were they goimg to pay Samardjiza if they extended him? They made $31 million last year with revenues about as low as they could be.

And then they jumped payroll by $26 million this year.

 

To go beyond that, they need more revenue.

[Balta1701]

What about the extra TV money? Accounting for inflation and time value of money? Bigger season ticket base?

 

If you really think the Sox aren't going to spend any money next offseason you're going to be surprised.

That extra TV money arrived last year and was why they turned a $31 million profit instead of a $6 million profit. That's why they're at $117 million this year when the last time they were at this payroll (2013) they lost money and have lost ticket sales since then.

 

Otherwise, the next time they will renegotiate their TV deal is 2019, and that's actually a good thing because as 2k5 pointed out, they have the 2nd lowest TV ratings in MLB.

[caulfield12]

Except it's pretty hard to argue that letting Ramirez go and/or trading him is going to lead to a better team next year.

 

We'll forget about Semien for the moment. Anderson, Carlos Sanchez, Saladino and Leury...none of them are equipped to be an everyday SS next year for a playoff-competitive team.

 

They'd have to get extremely fortunate to spend less than $10 million on the problem, IMO.

 

[Balta1701]

Except it's pretty hard to argue that letting Ramirez go and/or trading him is going to lead to a better team next year.

 

We'll forget about Semien for the moment. Anderson, Carlos Sanchez, Saladino and Leury...none of them are equipped to be an everyday SS next year for a playoff-competitive team.

 

They'd have to get extremely fortunate to spend less than $10 million on the problem, IMO.

Then we need enough of a competitive run to sell tickets for next year. That's all.

[BaconOnAStick]

Robin has been a different manager during this road trip. I'm not saying we all should love him now, but yesterday night holding the short leash on the BP won us a game.

[caulfield12]

Let's hope it continues when they face the two most beatable teams in the division at home this week...do they miss Kluber?

[OmarComing25]

Let's hope it continues when they face the two most beatable teams in the division at home this week...do they miss Kluber?

No it's Kluber vs. Sale on Monday.

[Jerksticks]

Robin has been a different manager during this road trip. I'm not saying we all should love him now, but yesterday night holding the short leash on the BP won us a game.

This series was a thing of beauty on his end. 99% of it is guys playing good baseball.

[greg775]

Robin has been a different manager during this road trip. I'm not saying we all should love him now, but yesterday night holding the short leash on the BP won us a game.

I was watching the game with a Sox fan and I said, 'Time for the four-out save' and Robin did indeed get the hack reliever out of there. Robin didn't sit back and let the relievers blow it. He went with his horse and got another win. I didn't think Hahn and Kenny's calling out Robin was going to help anything, but it appears to have woken everybody up.