VAfan Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Fortunately for my sanity, I haven't been watching these first 49 games that closely. They have certainly been putrid, especially on offense. But that actually gives me cause for optimism. - We're only 3 games under .500. - The Minnesota Twins are in first place, and lead us by only 7 games. - The AL East is led by two teams that are each only 1 game over .500. - The AL West second place team is only 2 games over .500 - There are only 3 AL teams more than 5 games above .500 - In other words, we are within 3 games of all but 4 teams in the AL, and 5 teams make the playoffs - The offense CAN'T remain THIS BAD. Eaton, Melky, Abreu, LaRoche, Alexei, Gillaspie, Flowers, Soto. ALL have hit better than this. - The only guy who is possibly overachieving is Avisail, and who's to say he can't get better? - The starting pitching is starting to come around - Chris Sale threw a masterpiece against Baltimore. He's not going to finish with an ERA in the mid-3s. He seems to be past the setback from missing spring training. - Samardzija is not going to end up with an ERA closer to 4 than 3. - Quintana may still be the unluckiest starter in baseball, but his ERA in the 4s is not where it's going to end up. - Carlos Rodon is now in the rotation, and is likely to give us a lot of good starts - John Danks just pitched his first shutout since 2011, and looks capable of pitching at least as well as last year, when he was a .500 pitcher. - The bullpen can pitch better than it has. And we may have reinforcements coming at some point this year. - Our expected W-L is 19-30, but we're 4 games better than that. Not sure if that's good or bad, but I'm taking it as a good sign, since we are maximizing the return on the performance we're getting. If I were the Sox brass, I wouldn't be planning on making any kind of fire sale. I would stay the course, and expect the team to shake itself out of its offensive doldrums. When it does, the starting pitching and bullpen could still let the team get on a roll. One 8-2 stretch would put us 3 games over .500, which would rank us 5th in the AL. This is a very different team than last year. Melky, LaRoche, Garcia (who didn't play much last season), Soto, Sanchez/Johnson, Beckham at 3rd, Bonafacio, Shuck -- all are new. Samadzija, Rodon, Duke, Robertson, Jennings, Albers (DL) are all new. That's more than half of the roster. It's far too soon to throw in the towel, just 49 games in. Let's see what happens through the All Star break. I hope Hahn is looking to improve, not cut and run. GO SOX!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Nice post. I agree with a lot of it. Still a lot of baseball left and this team has its best baseball ahead of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (VAfan @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 02:04 AM) Fortunately for my sanity, I haven't been watching these first 49 games that closely. They have certainly been putrid, especially on offense. But that actually gives me cause for optimism. - We're only 3 games under .500. - The Minnesota Twins are in first place, and lead us by only 7 games. - The AL East is led by two teams that are each only 1 game over .500. - The AL West second place team is only 2 games over .500 - There are only 3 AL teams more than 5 games above .500 - In other words, we are within 3 games of all but 4 teams in the AL, and 5 teams make the playoffs - The offense CAN'T remain THIS BAD. Eaton, Melky, Abreu, LaRoche, Alexei, Gillaspie, Flowers, Soto. ALL have hit better than this. - The only guy who is possibly overachieving is Avisail, and who's to say he can't get better? - The starting pitching is starting to come around - Chris Sale threw a masterpiece against Baltimore. He's not going to finish with an ERA in the mid-3s. He seems to be past the setback from missing spring training. - Samardzija is not going to end up with an ERA closer to 4 than 3. - Quintana may still be the unluckiest starter in baseball, but his ERA in the 4s is not where it's going to end up. - Carlos Rodon is now in the rotation, and is likely to give us a lot of good starts - John Danks just pitched his first shutout since 2011, and looks capable of pitching at least as well as last year, when he was a .500 pitcher. - The bullpen can pitch better than it has. And we may have reinforcements coming at some point this year. - Our expected W-L is 19-30, but we're 4 games better than that. Not sure if that's good or bad, but I'm taking it as a good sign, since we are maximizing the return on the performance we're getting. If I were the Sox brass, I wouldn't be planning on making any kind of fire sale. I would stay the course, and expect the team to shake itself out of its offensive doldrums. When it does, the starting pitching and bullpen could still let the team get on a roll. One 8-2 stretch would put us 3 games over .500, which would rank us 5th in the AL. This is a very different team than last year. Melky, LaRoche, Garcia (who didn't play much last season), Soto, Sanchez/Johnson, Beckham at 3rd, Bonafacio, Shuck -- all are new. Samadzija, Rodon, Duke, Robertson, Jennings, Albers (DL) are all new. That's more than half of the roster. It's far too soon to throw in the towel, just 49 games in. Let's see what happens through the All Star break. I hope Hahn is looking to improve, not cut and run. GO SOX!! real nice post. btw i haven't seen you around as much. back to the post, you are 100% correct. this beginning of the season is hard to swallow, and i believe many sees that and well do want to give up. anything can happen. i see little steps in improvements, little winning streaks here and there. i just can't wait to see this team put everything together at 1 time. look out AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 (edited) If you want to be entirely honest about this club, we have a pitching staff with the potential to be top3-4 in the AL. If the offense can be a little more consistent, and not run into outs on the base paths, they could certainly be in the running for a wild card. Thats really all there is to say. Now i they would just fire this coaching staff... Edited June 1, 2015 by iamshack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I agree that we've underperformed thus far, especially guys like Melky, but I'm just worried we've put ourselves in too big a hole. I know it's still relatively early, but even if things went right we were thinking we'd be in a dogfight for the playoffs. Unfortunately we're in the Central, which so far has easily been the best division in baseball and we struggle against pretty much all our division rivals. I do like the optimism though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 02:32 AM) If you want to be entirely honest about this club, we have a pitching staff with the potential to be top3-4 in the AL. If the offense can be a little more consistent, and not run into outs on the base paths, they could certainly be in the running for a wild card. Thats really all there is to say. Now i they would just fire this coaching staff... i am with you on this. in the back of my mind, i was hoping for the W/C push. but i didn't want to jinx anything. re coaching.... at this point i really don't give a hoot, i just want to see this team string a couple more winning streaks and get their stuff together. btw, i like the post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Even when they were 5 or 6 games under I never stopped believing. I still think this team wins 85-90 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 (edited) Any type of a fire-sale is basically an impossibility, anyway. Other than Samardzija (who everyone realizes can pitch better than he has, meaning you'd be trading him lower than his value)...Alexei's in the same exact boat of "selling low" not making any sense in present or future terms unless you had a suitable replacement waiting to take his place. The fact of the matter is that they undoubtedly need Ramirez to be the player he was for much of the last two seasons to have a realistic chance at competing in 2016 anyways. Trading Cabrera, Robertson or LaRoche just isn't going to happen. The statistic that scares me the most is the fact that we're outplaying our expected wins and losses by at least three games. On paper, we should already be out of it, almost. So that's either a window of opportunity or all the late game comebacks have hidden to some degree the numerous flaws in the construction of the team. Probably a little bit of both. In the end, with such inconsistency from Rodon/Danks/Noesi, a regression from Quintana/Eaton, the terrible baserunning, defense and fundamentals, this whole situation screams +/- 5 games over or under .500 team. Another concern is simply the fact that there hasn't been much progression from some of the big pitching names in our minor league system, guys like Montas and Danish (although Adams has come on recently, he's not a factor for 2015)...in the back of your mind, you're hoping one of them (or someone like Sanburn, Crain or Nate Jones) could take a step forward and help to solidify that 7th/8th inning issue currently undermining the bullpen. With the financial resources stretched thin, it's hard to imagine adding much there. So basically, the classic definition of no-man's land, where a Samardzija deal becomes another White Flag Trade but it's also the best possible means of improving the product on the field for next season.....Catch-22. Edited June 1, 2015 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macsandz Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 IMO, this team is as bad or worse then they've played. Just a bad mix of poor fundamentals and an even worse baseball IQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I think this team blows. There's still a chance the starting pitching will kick major butt all summer and the Sox click. But I tend to think the Sox will continue to suck suck suck against the Central Division and have that one lone 1-10 type road trip at some point. There are way too many easy outs in the lineup, five or more of them. It'll take a miracle to be in the race for the wildcard IMO. I just think Team Dysfunction is still out there. Only way I'm wrong is if Shark, Danks, Rodon and Sale just plain dominate the next 2 months. Possible, not probable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (VAfan @ May 31, 2015 -> 09:04 PM) Fortunately for my sanity, I haven't been watching these first 49 games that closely. They have certainly been putrid, especially on offense. But that actually gives me cause for optimism. - We're only 3 games under .500. - The Minnesota Twins are in first place, and lead us by only 7 games. - The AL East is led by two teams that are each only 1 game over .500. - The AL West second place team is only 2 games over .500 - There are only 3 AL teams more than 5 games above .500 - In other words, we are within 3 games of all but 4 teams in the AL, and 5 teams make the playoffs - The offense CAN'T remain THIS BAD. Eaton, Melky, Abreu, LaRoche, Alexei, Gillaspie, Flowers, Soto. ALL have hit better than this. - The only guy who is possibly overachieving is Avisail, and who's to say he can't get better? - The starting pitching is starting to come around - Chris Sale threw a masterpiece against Baltimore. He's not going to finish with an ERA in the mid-3s. He seems to be past the setback from missing spring training. - Samardzija is not going to end up with an ERA closer to 4 than 3. - Quintana may still be the unluckiest starter in baseball, but his ERA in the 4s is not where it's going to end up. - Carlos Rodon is now in the rotation, and is likely to give us a lot of good starts - John Danks just pitched his first shutout since 2011, and looks capable of pitching at least as well as last year, when he was a .500 pitcher. - The bullpen can pitch better than it has. And we may have reinforcements coming at some point this year. - Our expected W-L is 19-30, but we're 4 games better than that. Not sure if that's good or bad, but I'm taking it as a good sign, since we are maximizing the return on the performance we're getting. It's a bad sign. Run differential is generally the best indicator of future performance and it tends to correct itself as the season plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 05:46 AM) It's a bad sign. Run differential is generally the best indicator of future performance and it tends to correct itself as the season plays out. Which is what's going on right now with the Indians surging forward, and the Tigers falling back. Minnesota +21, 27-22 EWL (+3) KC +49, 30-18 EWL (-1) Detroit -1, 26-26 EWL (+2) Cleveland +4, 25-25 EWL (-1) CHW -42, 19-30 EWL (+4) Right now, not surprisingly, the Twins and White Sox have the biggest spreads between expected and actual records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 08:22 AM) Which is what's going on right now with the Indians surging forward, and the Tigers falling back. Minnesota +21, 27-22 EWL (+3) KC +49, 30-18 EWL (-1) Detroit -1, 26-26 EWL (+2) Cleveland +4, 25-25 EWL (-1) CHW -42, 19-30 EWL (+4) Right now, not surprisingly, the Twins and White Sox have the biggest spreads between expected and actual records. Yeah but during the time in which the Sox were "supposed" to be 19-30, the starting pitching has been bad. Isn't it feasible that the starting pitching is awesome for the majority of the season and they outperform the expected record? I think it's a miracle that the Sox are 23-26 with the offense that they've had. I think the offense has to improve slightly and the starting pitching and bullpen is good. I expect this team to finish right around .500 which would be a 7-10 game improvement over last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 AL CENTRAL: It might be anybody's game here, too. Minnesota, the only team utterly disregarded as a contender for the Central crown, is, naturally, sitting alone in first place at the start of June. And don't forget: The Twins will add Ervin Santana to their rotation at the midway mark. The Royals and Tigers remain elite, but Kansas City could use a rotation reinforcement and the Tigers need to get Justin Verlander and Victor Martinez back on the field. The Indians' power-armed rotation can take them far, but their defense remains a big issue and their bullpen has been shakier than expected. The White Sox have nowhere near as dynamic an offense as anticipated but still have the talent to make a charge (and if not, look for Jeff Samardzija to be dangled in trade talks). Baseball Prospectus says … Tigers (36.5), Royals (32.2), Twins (14.0), Indians (13.4) and White Sox (3.9). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrlesque Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 08:30 AM) Yeah but during the time in which the Sox were "supposed" to be 19-30, the starting pitching has been bad. Isn't it feasible that the starting pitching is awesome for the majority of the season and they outperform the expected record? I think it's a miracle that the Sox are 23-26 with the offense that they've had. I think the offense has to improve slightly and the starting pitching and bullpen is good. I expect this team to finish right around .500 which would be a 7-10 game improvement over last season. That is the most likely scenario, IMO. I love how the AL is anybody's game right now, but the super small margin of error it would take for the Sox to leapfrog 8-9 teams for a Wildcard makes it seem pretty unlikely, even with a potential "good" offense regression coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted June 1, 2015 Author Share Posted June 1, 2015 (edited) I think the Sox might be bad, for many of the reasons given above. I just don't think we're close to being "out of it." And I think the potential for improved play is there for the reasons that many of us saw before the season. If we got even career average hitting out of our lineup, we'd pretty quickly move into contention. Where we go from here is anyone's guess. What I'm mostly reacting to are the multiple "trade everyone" posts I saw when I came here yesterday. Edited June 1, 2015 by VAfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (VAfan @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 03:03 PM) I think the Sox might be bad, for many of the reasons given above. I just don't think we're close to being "out of it." And I think the potential for improved play is there for the reasons that many of us saw before the season. If we got even career average hitting out of our lineup, we'd pretty quickly move into contention. Where we go from here is anyone's guess. What I'm mostly reacting to are the multiple "trade everyone" posts I saw when I came here yesterday. that is the "What if" factor of being frustrated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 06:46 AM) It's a bad sign. Run differential is generally the best indicator of future performance and it tends to correct itself as the season plays out. Not too worried. Their run differential is a little out of whack from that 5 game disaster of a road trip where they were -29. The 1990 White Sox were +7. If the players start hitting and pitching like they are supposed to, this is a good team. Edited June 1, 2015 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 03:10 PM) Not too worried. Their run differential is a little out of whack from that 5 game disaster of a road trip where they were -29. The 1990 White Sox were +7. If the players start hitting and pitching like they are supposed to, this is a good team. in that case, i should step back from the ledge uh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 I think June will be very interesting - and if we can do decent, not amazing, I think we are set up for a very solid second half run --- think the Royals last year ... Here's the logic. We've played 22 at home and 27 on the road thus far. 18 of the next 28 are on the road. That equals 32 home games and 45 road games through the first 77 games. Our June schedule includes a hot Rangers team, the Tigers and Houston, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Twins, Tigers Cards ... so some very solid teams. If we can just hang around .500 this month? I think we are set up well for the dog days of summer being at the Cell rather than on the road so much. That'd leave 49 games at home, 36 on the road. Also 3 of those games are at Wrigley ... so in terms of keeping their routines of sleeping in their own houses, etc. It's essential 52 CHICAGO games and 33 ROAD games with an ASB in there too. Side note Chicago is in Tampa on the 12-14, which I believe equals game 5 down in Tampa for the Hawks. Not bad timing for anybody willing to make a weekend out of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 We play in a tough division but ovrasll in the AL I think there is a petty good level of competivness. The question I asked earlier in the season is how do you judge success at the end of the season. I think making it to the playoffs is success no matyter how you do it. I think this team can do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 We're a game over .500 since that 0-4 start. With how bad we've hit, that's actually not too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 11:09 AM) We're a game over .500 since that 0-4 start. With how bad we've hit, that's actually not too bad. And the big thing that I have learned is that the AL Central may well be the best division in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 04:02 PM) We play in a tough division but ovrasll in the AL I think there is a petty good level of competivness. The question I asked earlier in the season is how do you judge success at the end of the season. I think making it to the playoffs is success no matyter how you do it. I think this team can do that. nice opinion, but the way the season started, i would be happy to a little run for the WC and end up with a 80+win season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 1, 2015 -> 04:14 PM) And the big thing that I have learned is that the AL Central may well be the best division in baseball. before the season, i would never have thought of that, but now.... i agree. the parity of both the al west and al east is what i am hoping is where the sox can pick up some wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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