KW: play is "embarassing" but team can still win ALC

[Balta1701]

And you can use the money you were going to spend on Shark on something else. This is an excellent post.

Just to stress again, the White Sox's payroll this year is $115 million. If they don't sign Shark but do keep Alexei, their payroll rises to ~$120-125 million depending on arb guys like Noesi. The money spent on Samardzija this season is already committed next year because most of our contracts grow. In order for there to be extra payroll next year, they're going to need a revenue stream boost.

[Balta1701]

You're a smart guy and I am sure you're doing your due diligence l but you can't say this with any degree of certainty. No one on this site is privy to this information.

 

Explain how the team held a 128 million payroll in 2011 with declining attendance and without the TV money increase from the new MLB deal. That's not even considering inflationary shifts and MLB revenue growth from 2011-2015 which is significant in regards to players salary. I know you want be the grim reaper around here but there are holes in your argument and proclamations made that lack the substantive backing to be given any credence.

They're down 350,000 tickets per game since then, probably a slight boost this year from season tickets sold in the offseason but the continued losing has robbed that of any momentum, based on several reports lost sponsors thanks to the continual losing, and cut ticket prices substantially going into 2013.

 

They had a $110 million-ish payroll in 2013 and lost money. They've added in the $25 million in new TV money since then and continued losing ticket sales.

 

If you can add and subtract, you can track pretty darn well exactly where this team's payroll and profits are winding up every year. They're extremely predictable.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Just to stress again, the White Sox's payroll this year is $115 million. If they don't sign Shark but do keep Alexei, their payroll rises to ~$120-125 million depending on arb guys like Noesi. The money spent on Samardzija this season is already committed next year because most of our contracts grow. In order for there to be extra payroll next year, they're going to need a revenue stream boost.

 

 

Do you not think that they are going to offer Samardzija something like 5 years $100 million? They traded for him so that they can keep him long-term. I don't think an offer like that gets it done but if they are willing to extend to sign Shark, why wouldn't they spend that same money on someone or something else?

[Dick Allen]

You can keep the snark because your adding and subtracting didn't have the infallible predictive value you purport it to have when last year's estimated financials were released. You were doom and gloom last year and the Sox were estimated (understand all of your adding and subtracting is on estimated numbers) to be the eighth most profitable team in baseball. That was as the 24th best team.

 

Since you have it down to a science, we can make a sig bet on the Sox increasing their payroll from '15 to '16. You can use your adding and subtracting and I'll just take a blind stab and say they will.

This. I didn't see anyone say the Sox made $31 million last year until Forbes came out. In fact whenever the additional $25 million in TV money was mentioned, loss of ticket sales and advertising was mentioned as eating that all away. Besides, the $3 million loss Forbes had the Sox take in 2013 included the $10 million bonus Abreu received after that season. If we are going by Forbes, this team has made well over &150 million the last decade or so, so that must be sitting somewhere as well. For anyone here to think they have a true handle on White Sox finances is laughable, We really don't even know if the Forbes numbers are accurate, and they have access to a lot more things than we do.

 

They at least were prepared to pay Tanaka a lot of money. They at least were prepared, even after spendimg all that money, to pay Shark a ton of money. Any doom and gloom the Sox are maxed out and will be horrible for years is silly.

[southsider2k5]

They're down 350,000 tickets per game since then, probably a slight boost this year from season tickets sold in the offseason but the continued losing has robbed that of any momentum, based on several reports lost sponsors thanks to the continual losing, and cut ticket prices substantially going into 2013.

 

They had a $110 million-ish payroll in 2013 and lost money. They've added in the $25 million in new TV money since then and continued losing ticket sales.

 

If you can add and subtract, you can track pretty darn well exactly where this team's payroll and profits are winding up every year. They're extremely predictable.

 

Things are worse than I thought.

[caulfield12]

They've also said that they were interested in Tanaka because of his younger age and the potential he had to be a true ace in a rotation.

 

The White Sox can't go out and win a bidding war for Cueto and Price. Next, Samardzija is not an ace by any stretch of the imagination...and doesn't merit a $100+ million contract.

 

They have the draft, Cuba and the Asian market. They won't blow past their international budget for the under 23 potential aces from Cuba because of JR. The best option is to continue to add chips like the consistent talent developmental organizations such as the Cards and Rangers have done (teams that have the depth to lose their aces or multiple starters and still be competitive.)

 

Unless Montas makes tremendous strides the next three months, the main route left is someone like Cole Hamels or dumpster diving for the likes of a Brett Anderson to protect the back end of the rotation so that you can at least go .500 in those games.

Edited June 6, 2015 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

They've also said that they were interested in Tanaka because of his younger age and the potential he had to be a true ace in a rotation.

 

The White Sox can't go out and win a bidding war for Cueto and Price. Next, Samardzija is not an ace by any stretch of the imagination...and doesn't merit a $100+ million contract.

 

They have the draft, Cuba and the Asian market. They won't blow past their international budget for the under 23 potential aces from Cuba because of JR. The best option is to continue to add chips like the consistent talent developmental organizations such as the Cards and Rangers have done (teams that have the depth to lose their aces or multiple starters and still be competitive.)

 

Unless Montas makes tremendous strides the next three months, the main route left is someone like Cole Hamels or dumpster diving for the likes of a Brett Anderson to protect the back end of the rotation so that you can at least go .500 in those games.

 

They also wouldn't go over slot to sign Rodon...

[caulfield12]

They also wouldn't go over slot to sign Rodon...

 

 

You truly believe they're going to amaze everyone in baseball by signing 6-10 guys (including the two best Cubans for something between Moncada and Soler money) and then double that with fines and penalties...$90-120 million in new spending?

 

For the record, I would much prefer that strategy than paying guys like Samardzija and Cabrera.

 

Do we have the Latin American pipeline in place to pull that off, in terms of trust with the agents (to the point where we don't have to outbid other big market teams by 5-10%)?

 

There's quite a gap between this strategy and a million extra for Rodon or whatever it was in the end.

 

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

You truly believe they're going to amaze everyone in baseball by signing 6-10 guys (including the two best Cubans for something between Moncada and Soler money) and then double that with fines and penalties...$90-120 million in new spending?

 

For the record, I would much prefer that strategy than paying guys like Samardzija and Cabrera.

 

Do we have the Latin American pipeline in place to pull that off, in terms of trust with the agents (to the point where we don't have to outbid other big market teams by 5-10%)?

 

There's quite a gap between this strategy and a million extra for Rodon or whatever it was in the end.

 

They are talking to Eddy Martinez, which means they are at least considering it. If they weren't there would be no point to even talking to him, because he is going to get an eight figure bonus.

[Balta1701]

Things are worse than I thought.

D'Oh.

[Balta1701]

Do you not think that they are going to offer Samardzija something like 5 years $100 million? They traded for him so that they can keep him long-term. I don't think an offer like that gets it done but if they are willing to extend to sign Shark, why wouldn't they spend that same money on someone or something else?

He turned down 5/$75 from the cubs. 5/$100 seemed like a reasonable deal until he started this year terrible.

[Balta1701]

You can keep the snark because your adding and subtracting didn't have the infallible predictive value you purport it to have when last year's estimated financials were released. You were doom and gloom last year and the Sox were estimated (understand all of your adding and subtracting is on estimated numbers) to be the eighth most profitable team in baseball. That was as the 24th best team.

 

Since you have it down to a science, we can make a sig bet on the Sox increasing their payroll from '15 to '16. You can use your adding and subtracting and I'll just take a blind stab and say they will.

If they added Samardzija next year their payroll would have at least come to $140m without trading someone.

 

I'm willing to say they'll be under $130m as a sig bet unless they make the playoffs (at which point I will call for a Ventura extension). What say you?

[caulfield12]

If they added Samardzija next year their payroll would have at least come to $140m without trading someone.

 

I'm willing to say they'll be under $130m as a sig bet unless they make the playoffs (at which point I will call for a Ventura extension). What say you?

 

Seconded. Even if it's the final wild card spot.

 

They're also stuck in a situation where unless Alexei doesn't rebound at all in the second half...where there's just no way they can give that position to Tim Anderson heading into 2016 and pretend to fielding a playoff-caliber roster.

Edited June 7, 2015 by caulfield12

[greg775]

Seconded. Even if it's the final wild card spot.

 

They're also stuck in a situation where unless Alexei doesn't rebound at all in the second half...where there's just no way they can give that position to Tim Anderson heading into 2016 and pretend to fielding a playoff-caliber roster.

They'd have to play exceptional baseball to make the playoffs. I'm just hoping Hahn realizes that despite having Sale, Shark, Q and Rodon this team blows and adjusts accordingly. ... Maybe behind the scenes he should interview some managerial candidates and see if they think they can win NOW with our rotation.

[Andy the Clown]

What a joke of an organization.

[Boopa1219]

They'd have to play exceptional baseball to make the playoffs. I'm just hoping Hahn realizes that despite having Sale, Shark, Q and Rodon this team blows and adjusts accordingly. ... Maybe behind the scenes he should interview some managerial candidates and see if they think they can win NOW with our rotation.

 

Thats not the Sox MO, interviewing potential managerial candidates behind Robin's back would make the Sox look really really really really really bad to a lot of people.

[Boopa1219]

They'd have to play exceptional baseball to make the playoffs. I'm just hoping Hahn realizes that despite having Sale, Shark, Q and Rodon this team blows and adjusts accordingly. ... Maybe behind the scenes he should interview some managerial candidates and see if they think they can win NOW with our rotation.

 

Thats not the Sox MO, interviewing potential managerial candidates behind Robin's back would make the Sox look really really really really really bad to a lot of people.

[caulfield12]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/...icago-white-sox

 

[Balta1701]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/...icago-white-sox

This is fine and what a GM is supposed to be saying right now.

[LDF]

This is fine and what a GM is supposed to be saying right now.

 

i didn't think about that, but you do have a point.

 

but why even make an announcement.

[Balta1701]

i didn't think about that, but you do have a point.

 

but why even make an announcement.

This one's fine, GMs are supposed to occasionally talk about their roster to the press and since the Sox are losing but not 100% out of it its his job to answer questions and say "we're still in it, no we're not selling, we have confidence in this roster" even if he actually is listening to offers on guys.

 

Plus this week is the draft so he's going to be talking to the press a bunch for that too.

[LDF]

This one's fine, GMs are supposed to occasionally talk about their roster to the press and since the Sox are losing but not 100% out of it its his job to answer questions and say "we're still in it, no we're not selling, we have confidence in this roster" even if he actually is listening to offers on guys.

 

Plus this week is the draft so he's going to be talking to the press a bunch for that too.

 

nice interpreting i really didn't think like that. real...... Machiavellian like.

[caulfield12]

We're embarrassed too, Kenny. For even believing in this team coming into spring training.

[Jerksticks]

We're embarrassed too, Kenny. For even believing in this team coming into spring training.

I'm not embarrassed. It's just baseball. I like that we have a bunch of good, young players. We need some more but things are definitely looking up. I even still think we could get hot and make a run at it this year. Melky, wake the f*** up man! We need you!

[caulfield12]

I'm not embarrassed. It's just baseball. I like that we have a bunch of good, young players. We need some more but things are definitely looking up. I even still think we could get hot and make a run at it this year. Melky, wake the f*** up man! We need you!

 

 

We obviously have the pitching pieces in Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Duke, Robertson...the problem is there's not a single offensive player without a major set of flaws (offense, defense, baserunning, etc.) on the roster.

 

Eaton and Garcia have a lot of potential (still), but neither are "sure things" at this point. I'm a bit more confident in Eaton fwiw. Then there's LaRoche.

 

 

The problem is that leaves LF, 3B, SS, 2B and catcher as ongoing issues. That's a lot of positions to fix when you are stuck with some contracts like Danks and Cabrera, we still don't have much of a minor league system from which to make trades (and that probably not even being the wise strategy at this point)...the best players are still 1 to 1 1/2 seasons away...and there's not going to be a huge amount of financial flexibility compared to this past off-season.

Edited June 8, 2015 by caulfield12