KW: play is "embarassing" but team can still win ALC

[LDF]

We haven't even finished this LAST "start-over!" At some point, you have got to stay the course. Balta, it hasn't even been a HALF of a season yet. Melky Cabrera is not a 54 wRC+ hitter. Adam Eaton is not a 77 wRC+ hitter. Jeff Samardzija is not a 4.68 ERA pitcher. You haven't even given this roster a HALF SEASON and you're ready to clean the entire organization out.

 

oh i want to say is, i really am not taking sides in this conversation, but you do make a point.

 

but it is good to have a game plan for the "what if" scenario.

[Eminor3rd]

See here's the thing, when we're already losing 99, 89, and on pace for 87 games a year..."wow it would be terrible to lose 95 games a year" isn't scary at all. We're doing that.

 

When I see that sequence of numbers, I see a terrible team, a 10 win improvement, and a number that I'm pleasantly surprised isn't much worse considering how bad the players have been. A little regression and we could see a 15-20 game swing over two seasons on top of an improving farm and still solid financial flexibility.

[southsider2k5]

Nice strawman. You brought up payroll ranks. Let's try to keep our exchanges copacetic instead of jumping ship every time you find some new way to complain about the Sox.

 

I could feed all of the horses in Kentucky on the strawmen in this thread.

[Balta1701]

We haven't even finished this LAST "start-over!" At some point, you have got to stay the course. Balta, it hasn't even been a HALF of a season yet. Melky Cabrera is not a 54 wRC+ hitter. Adam Eaton is not a 77 wRC+ hitter. Jeff Samardzija is not a 4.68 ERA pitcher. You haven't even given this roster a HALF SEASON and you're ready to clean the entire organization out.

I just wanna highlight one...Jeff Samardzija's advanced stats have dramatically dropped off this season. His strikeout rate is the worst of his career. His ground ball rate is the worst of his career. His line drive rate is the worst of his career. Right now Jeff Samardzija is a lot closer to a 4.68 ERA pitcher than he is to being a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

Adam Eaton is better than that and is slowly improving, but he doesn't have to be the player he was last year either. And yes, Melky's advanced stats suggest he's due for some improvement, but for a player whose steroid abuse was absolutely key in his switch from "non-tendered after being paid $3 million" to "quality player" I'll believe it when I see it.

[LittleHurt05]

We haven't even finished this LAST "start-over!" At some point, you have got to stay the course. Balta, it hasn't even been a HALF of a season yet. Melky Cabrera is not a 54 wRC+ hitter. Adam Eaton is not a 77 wRC+ hitter. Jeff Samardzija is not a 4.68 ERA pitcher. You haven't even given this roster a HALF SEASON and you're ready to clean the entire organization out.

 

There's an Adam Dunn joke in here somewhere

[chitownsportsfan]

There's an Adam Dunn joke in here somewhere

 

Certainly. The Sox need to get the leaded coffee back in the clubhouse.

[Dick Allen]

I just wanna highlight one...Jeff Samardzija's advanced stats have dramatically dropped off this season. His strikeout rate is the worst of his career. His ground ball rate is the worst of his career. His line drive rate is the worst of his career. Right now Jeff Samardzija is a lot closer to a 4.68 ERA pitcher than he is to being a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

Adam Eaton is better than that and is slowly improving, but he doesn't have to be the player he was last year either. And yes, Melky's advanced stats suggest he's due for some improvement, but for a player whose steroid abuse was absolutely key in his switch from "non-tendered after being paid $3 million" to "quality player" I'll believe it when I see it.

Before last night, the only season as a starter his FIP was any lower was last year.

[Eminor3rd]

I just wanna highlight one...Jeff Samardzija's advanced stats have dramatically dropped off this season. His strikeout rate is the worst of his career. His ground ball rate is the worst of his career. His line drive rate is the worst of his career. Right now Jeff Samardzija is a lot closer to a 4.68 ERA pitcher than he is to being a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

Adam Eaton is better than that and is slowly improving, but he doesn't have to be the player he was last year either. And yes, Melky's advanced stats suggest he's due for some improvement, but for a player whose steroid abuse was absolutely key in his switch from "non-tendered after being paid $3 million" to "quality player" I'll believe it when I see it.

 

RE: Samardzija. Right but it's been ten starts. That's the point.

 

RE: Melky. He has performed substantially worse than at any point in his career, even the low points. And he jsut put a 125 wRC+ last year, post-steroids. This is just not his true talent level, and it's far off. But he's just one example, most of the team is doing this.

[Balta1701]

RE: Samardzija. Right but it's been ten starts. That's the point.

 

RE: Melky. He has performed substantially worse than at any point in his career, even the low points. And he jsut put a 125 wRC+ last year, post-steroids. This is just not his true talent level, and it's far off. But he's just one example, most of the team is doing this.

And when I read that..."the whole team is performing far off of their talent level"... I'm compelled to ask again, what force out there could influence an entire roster to perform below their standards? After 2 months it's not just random chance, that's nearly 2000 PAs.

 

Either it's the water at the ballpark, something has gone terribly wrong with the plane and we're accidentally irradiating players during flights, or based on these comments the coaching staff should be in the crosshairs.

 

Again I'm ok with that.

[Chicago White Sox]

RE: Samardzija. Right but it's been ten starts. That's the point.

 

RE: Melky. He has performed substantially worse than at any point in his career, even the low points. And he jsut put a 125 wRC+ last year, post-steroids. This is just not his true talent level, and it's far off. But he's just one example, most of the team is doing this.

The problem is Balta can't be objective with past PED users, so he honestly believes Melky will be 60/70 wRC+ type hitter.

[LDF]

And when I read that..."the whole team is performing far off of their talent level"... I'm compelled to ask again, what force out there could influence an entire roster to perform below their standards? After 2 months it's not just random chance, that's nearly 2000 PAs.

 

Either it's the water at the ballpark, something has gone terribly wrong with the plane and we're accidentally irradiating players during flights, or based on these comments the coaching staff should be in the crosshairs.

 

Again I'm ok with that.

 

your summations is right on.

 

i can't think a a plausible counter.

[caulfield12]

The only thing we have in common with the Phillies is holding onto older cores beyond their shelf life and Amaro/KW both putting their feet in their mouth occasionally.

 

If you could prove to me today that Anderson, Hawkins, Micah, Sanchez, Montas, Danish and Adams would all fail to make it as big league regulars, trading Sale and Abreu would be the best possible solution. Of course, then you'd have to trust the same front office team not to screw up those moves...which seems even scarier to the anti-rebuild group.

 

Assuming Eaton and Avi are both going to make it, that still leaves six other line-up slots to fill if you're going to hold onto Abreu (which also assumes that Melky Cabrera was/is done as a better than average player). That's just way too many positions to fill with our current "pushing the limits" payroll situation. Even if dealing Samardzija provides you with another above-average position player (far from a sure thing at the moment), you're five players away....so you're needing at least 3/5 of the remaining to be good to make up for the 2 that will be busts an weigh down the bottom of the line-up.

 

That means a .667 success rate on trades for position prospects with just Samardzija and Alexei to deal...and let's say a trade of our struggling top minor league prospects.

 

The best argument for holding onto everyone is Anderson becomes a stud at SS and Hawkins another Mike Stanton in the OF, allowing you to push Melky/Avi off the field to DH. And one of the four pitchers (assuming we draft another college arm, to go along with Adams/Montas/Danish) makes it. Even then, you've got three players in Melky, Avi and Abreu who should be DHing, but maybe some miracle allows the offense to overcome the defensive inadequacies.

 

To be perfectly honest, it doesn't seem possible unless we get extremely fortunate and find our own Yadier Molina/Sal Perez/Gomes at catcher.

Edited June 3, 2015 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

And when I read that..."the whole team is performing far off of their talent level"... I'm compelled to ask again, what force out there could influence an entire roster to perform below their standards? After 2 months it's not just random chance, that's nearly 2000 PAs.

 

Either it's the water at the ballpark, something has gone terribly wrong with the plane and we're accidentally irradiating players during flights, or based on these comments the coaching staff should be in the crosshairs.

 

Again I'm ok with that.

 

It's not 2000 PA for each player, lol. Come on man. It's two months of a season where a team is playing 3 games below .500. If they stay at this level all year, then we need to re-evaluate a lot of things. But we're just not there yet.

[Eminor3rd]

your summations is right on.

 

i can't think a a plausible counter.

 

Balta just said the ONLY possible explanations for the poor play of this team are radiation, disease, or bad coaching. LDF, you very much CAN think of a plausible counter.

[LDF]

The only thing we have in common with the Phillies is holding onto older cores beyond their shelf life and Amaro/KW both putting their feet in their mouth occasionally.

 

If you could prove to me today that Anderson, Hawkins, Micah, Sanchez, Montas, Danish and Adams would all fail to make it as big league regulars, trading Sale and Abreu would be the best possible solution. Of course, then you'd have to trust the same front office team not to screw up those moves...which seems even scarier to the anti-rebuild group.

 

Assuming Eaton and Avi are both going to make it, that still leaves six other line-up slots to fill if you're going to hold onto Abreu (which also assumes that Melky Cabrera was/is done as a better than average player). That's just way too many positions to fill with our current "pushing the limits" payroll situation. Even if dealing Samardzija provides you with another above-average position player (far from a sure thing at the moment), you're five players away....so you're needing at least 3/5 of the remaining to be good to make up for the 2 that will be busts.

 

That means a .667 success rate on trades for position prospects with just Samardzija and Alexei to deal...and let's say a trade of our struggling top minor league prospects.

 

The best argument for holding onto everyone is Anderson becomes a stud at SS and Hawkins another Mike Stanton in the OF, allowing you to push Melky/Avi off the field to DH. And one of the four pitchers (assuming we draft another college arm, to go along with Adams/Montas/Danish) makes it. Even then, you've got three players in Melky, Avi and Abreu who should be DHing, but maybe some miracle allows the offense to overcome the defensive inadequacies.

with all due respect, i don't see the comparison.

 

[LDF]

Balta just said the ONLY possible explanations for the poor play of this team are radiation, disease, or bad coaching. LDF, you very much CAN think of a plausible counter.

 

i don't know. i feel like i am in a tennis match watching 2 very good players.

 

this discussion a fantastic and i am totally afraid of jumping in.

 

that was me clapping from the sidelines of that tennis game.

 

no offense is intended at any.

[caulfield12]

The problem is Balta can't be objective with past PED users, so he honestly believes Melky will be 60/70 wRC+ type hitter.

 

Which is still much more likely with our free agent history than 130-140+ on the other side.

 

It's a coin flip, at best. And even with the likes of hitting on a PEDs guy such as Nelson Cruz, and signing Cano...the Mariners (Ackley, Miller, Zunino, Seager) are still not much better off than the White Sox offensively...which just goes to show how hard (and costly) offense is to come by when you you don't or can't develop it yourself.

 

Same can be said for the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies, teams with far bigger payrolls than ours. It's likely the Angels will also fall short on the offensive side as well.

 

If you can't have at least 50% of your offense be homegrown, the odds start to get very long unless you are a starting pitching assembly line.

Edited June 3, 2015 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

i don't know. i feel like i am in a tennis match watching 2 very good players.

 

this discussion a fantastic and i am totally afraid of jumping in.

 

that was me clapping from the sidelines of that tennis game.

 

no offense is intended at any.

 

None is taken at all. I'm just saying that he's exaggerating for effect with that post, but he's not being accurate. There are many simpler explanations for failure that he is not considering.

[caulfield12]

with all due respect, i don't see the comparison.

 

For the White Sox plan to work, he has to hit 30-40 homers per season.

 

The failures of Beckham, Viciedo, Melky (this season) and pretty much the entire infield/C to hit with any power (or to utilize their speed efficiently) have brought the White Sox to this relatively desperate position.

[Dick Allen]

If you can't have at least 50% of your offense be homegrown, the odds start to get very long unless you are a starting pitching assembly line.

So that means the Twins should be the overwhelming favorites to win the division since they are the only team in the divison with 50% of their offense homegrown. Wrong.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

Balta just said the ONLY possible explanations for the poor play of this team are radiation, disease, or bad coaching. LDF, you very much CAN think of a plausible counter.

 

There is plenty of room for fluke in a 50 game sample. Look at the other end of the spectrum at who is in first place. Does anyone really think that Houston is a 101 win team? That is the pace they are on. Is Minnesota a 95 win team? That is the pace they are on. I think is pretty clear you will see some significant regression from those teams, just as there are high odds that you will see some significant improvement out of the White Sox.

[chitownsportsfan]

There is plenty of room for fluke in a 50 game sample. Look at the other end of the spectrum at who is in first place. Does anyone really think that Houston is a 101 win team? That is the pace they are on. Is Minnesota a 95 win team? That is the pace they are on. I think is pretty clear you will see some significant regression from those teams, just as there are high odds that you will see some significant improvement out of the White Sox.

 

The odds are they aren't a playoff team.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-meaning-o...ord-in-mid-may/

[The Ginger Kid]

Doesn't it seem like we always hear this kind of misplaced anger from KW around this time of year? When his evaluation of talent meets reality?

[Leonard Zelig]

The odds are they aren't a playoff team.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-meaning-o...ord-in-mid-may/

Odds are a numerical expression consisting of a pair of numbers.

[southsider2k5]

The odds are they aren't a playoff team.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-meaning-o...ord-in-mid-may/

 

This is exactly what I have been saying. Thanks for the support.

 

But there is a wider distribution early in the year than late — extreme winning percentages tend to even out, as you would expect. No matter what happens in the first quarter of the season, teams are likely to spend the rest of the year regressing to the mean winning percentage, .500.