Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 12:45 PM) You almost have to trade Quintana. With a historically terrible offense and defense, we have to be willing to deal someone who's capable of providing us with a package that inproves the team. Not just in 2016, but beyond. If not from Quintana, how does this team improve with dealing Shark for a b rated prospect? We're sure as hell not going to replace six full-time position players off FA/waiver deals, i'll tell you that much. We need help. The key thing we need to do? Stop pretending we have an "all-in" quality roster. Replace guys as best as we can, play some kids in places, and see if we can actually set ourselves up for 2017. Trading Quintana can be part of that, but it's not the #1 requirement. The #1 requirement is understanding how far away this team actually is and acting like it. If somehow things work out better, great, but at least we won't be in the mess we're in now where we're forced to move people because a sandwich pick isn't a great return for them and it'd be crazy to pay the price to keep a guy away from FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShandyMan Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) Not sure if anyone caught Dan Hayes on lawrence holmes last night, but he said he's not sure sox will get anything more than a b prospect for smarj. Depends on what type of B/B+ prospect it is. Catcher? Make the deal. Anything else I'd be hesitant, and inclined to just get the draft pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrlesque Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) Not sure if anyone caught Dan Hayes on lawrence holmes last night, but he said he's not sure sox will get anything more than a b prospect for smarj. I hope he's wrong, but this is the way I see it as well. If a contender wants to give up good prospects (which hasn't happened much recently outside of Billy Beane's puzzling Russell trade last year), they'll go for the bigger ticket items like Hamels, Cueto or Price. The market price for Samardzija, with his two-month rental status and good-but-not-great 4+ ERA, will be a step down. Honestly, I think Sox fans are going to be disappointed with what comes back for Samardzija, but there's still hope for a bidding war in this seller's market. Or a Lester-Cespedes style outside the box trade. QUOTE (staxx @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 01:42 PM) Depends on what type of B/B+ prospect it is. Catcher? Make the deal. Anything else I'd be hesitant, and inclined to just get the draft pick. A second tier catching prospect? Pass. Keep in mind "B prospect" in this context doesn't mean John Sickels-style grade B, it means lower quality. Give me the comp pick if that's the best we can do, especially if it's a catcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Just so I say it again...a comp pick is an abjectly terrible return for a player like this. When I looked through the comp picks over recent drafts, I think a reasonable result of a comp pick is a player with a 50% chance of making the big leagues and about a 10% chance of being a really good player/all star...with a 5 year gap before most guys contribute if at all and occasionally a bit faster. That's like the ultimate "rebuilding" move, a guy who is years from helping if at all. A B+ player, if he can fit into the lineup in the next 2 years, is vastly preferable to that to me, unless we're finally ready to admit this team won't be competitive until 2018 or later. At least get something that can help the big league roster in the next few years out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (staxx @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 01:42 PM) Depends on what type of B/B+ prospect it is. Catcher? Make the deal. Anything else I'd be hesitant, and inclined to just get the draft pick. I disagree with this. I don't want a catcher in return. Teams don't have catchers to trade. The catcher acquired wouldn't be much better than what White Sox currently have. I'd target SS, 3B, or OF before C in trades because you have a better chance at upgrading those positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 12:06 PM) Just so I say it again...a comp pick is an abjectly terrible return for a player like this. When I looked through the comp picks over recent drafts, I think a reasonable result of a comp pick is a player with a 50% chance of making the big leagues and about a 10% chance of being a really good player/all star...with a 5 year gap before most guys contribute if at all and occasionally a bit faster. That's like the ultimate "rebuilding" move, a guy who is years from helping if at all. A B+ player, if he can fit into the lineup in the next 2 years, is vastly preferable to that to me, unless we're finally ready to admit this team won't be competitive until 2018 or later. At least get something that can help the big league roster in the next few years out of this. One thing you have to consider is what is a "comp" picks value a year from when you drafted him. Depends on who you grab, but while the long term return might be neglible due to bust rates, you might have a pretty valuable trade chip a year out. A risk still clearly exists and if you intend to keep the pick long term and develop, you are right that for a team trying to contend now, you are likely better opting for the more major league ready return. However, it is still leverage that you have. I'd argue we dangle him and Q and have an idea as to whether Shark is interested in coming back long-term. Maybe the plan is to try and sign him in FA and get some assets for him now and bring him back. You always run the risk that other teams blow you away in FA (vs. trying to get him to agree now). To your point, would you rather bet on Q or Shark long term, the answer is probably Q (especially given the contract), but if you truly could turn Q into Puig +, then I have a hard time not making that move as you could drastically alter the club while opening up a hole, but a hole in an area where we have a far better track record (and a stable of potential options). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 03:09 PM) To your point, would you rather bet on Q or Shark long term, the answer is probably Q (especially given the contract), but if you truly could turn Q into Puig +, then I have a hard time not making that move as you could drastically alter the club while opening up a hole, but a hole in an area where we have a far better track record (and a stable of potential options). Have you looked at Samardzija's K-rate dropoff this year? I wouldn't touch the contract he's going to get with a 20 foot pole. And that's even if Q were traded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:06 PM) Just so I say it again...a comp pick is an abjectly terrible return for a player like this. When I looked through the comp picks over recent drafts, I think a reasonable result of a comp pick is a player with a 50% chance of making the big leagues and about a 10% chance of being a really good player/all star...with a 5 year gap before most guys contribute if at all and occasionally a bit faster. That's like the ultimate "rebuilding" move, a guy who is years from helping if at all. A B+ player, if he can fit into the lineup in the next 2 years, is vastly preferable to that to me, unless we're finally ready to admit this team won't be competitive until 2018 or later. At least get something that can help the big league roster in the next few years out of this. You are underrating the flexibility part of the situation though. Let's pretend that the Sox pick #6 overall. That pick would require a bonus of close to $4 million. Their comp pick would require a bonus of say $1.8 million. They would also have just over $1 million for their 2nd rounder. That's tons of flexibility. They could conceivably take a college hitter at #6 and pay him $3 million. That gives you room to draft talented players that fall in later rounds. It would also conceivable allow you take 3 top 50 players if you chose that route. Edited July 21, 2015 by Y2JImmy0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 03:12 PM) You are underrating the flexibility part of the situation though. Let's pretend that the Sox pick #6 overall. That pick would require a bonus of close to $3 million. Their comp pick would require a bonus of say $1.8 million. They would also have just over $1 million for their 2nd rounder. That's tons of flexibility. They could conceivably take a college hitter at #6 and pay him $4 million. That gives you room to draft talented players that fall in later rounds. It would also conceivable allow you take 3 top 50 players if you chose that route. To me though...all of those are setting up long-term except for the "taking a hypothetical college hitter at #6 and overpaying him" (which of course only works if there is a worthy college hitter at #6 who somehow falls). A comp pick isn't worth nothing, but taking the comp pick is 100% a "long term move". Even in the case of trading a guy like Gage said...how much would Adams bring in a trade right now? He's not chopped liver, but he's so far from the big leagues that he's not going to bring back much on his own, and he's about as good of a look as you can get from guys outside the first round. Oh, and we'd also be paying an extra $4 million to keep Samardzija around this season...and denying Johnson a chance to work in the big leagues for 2 months like he should get, on top of all the other things. It's just a pretty rotten call to make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 11:55 AM) The key thing we need to do? Stop pretending we have an "all-in" quality roster. Replace guys as best as we can, play some kids in places, and see if we can actually set ourselves up for 2017. Trading Quintana can be part of that, but it's not the #1 requirement. The #1 requirement is understanding how far away this team actually is and acting like it. If somehow things work out better, great, but at least we won't be in the mess we're in now where we're forced to move people because a sandwich pick isn't a great return for them and it'd be crazy to pay the price to keep a guy away from FA. The problem is, is the pitching staff is indeed "all-in" quality. If they can even get get a few average bats in here for next year they could be competitive. Austin Barnes might be someone you could consider a B prospect and I would love for him to be the return for Shark. He looks like he could possibly be a #2 hitter, and to get that from the catcher position would be huge in my book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (scs787 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:40 PM) The problem is, is the pitching staff is indeed "all-in" quality. If they can even get get a few average bats in here for next year they could be competitive. Austin Barnes might be someone you could consider a B prospect and I would love for him to be the return for Shark. He looks like he could possibly be a #2 hitter, and to get that from the catcher position would be huge in my book. But Balta wants the Sox to play all kids and be terrible FOREVER! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 11:45 AM) You almost have to trade Quintana. With a historically terrible offense and defense, we have to be willing to deal someone who's capable of providing us with a package that inproves the team. Not just in 2016, but beyond. If not from Quintana, how does this team improve with dealing Shark for a b rated prospect? We're sure as hell not going to replace six full-time position players off FA/waiver deals, i'll tell you that much. We need help. I don't really want the Sox to trade Q, but I agree. The return obviously has to be right, but I just can't see how this team will be competitive in the next two years unless they hit home runs with a couple trades. The FA pool sucks next year, and this offense has several holes to fill. But stranger things have happened...just look at the Twins. That team sucks and they're somehow 10 games over .500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:22 PM) To me though...all of those are setting up long-term except for the "taking a hypothetical college hitter at #6 and overpaying him" (which of course only works if there is a worthy college hitter at #6 who somehow falls). A comp pick isn't worth nothing, but taking the comp pick is 100% a "long term move". Even in the case of trading a guy like Gage said...how much would Adams bring in a trade right now? He's not chopped liver, but he's so far from the big leagues that he's not going to bring back much on his own, and he's about as good of a look as you can get from guys outside the first round. Oh, and we'd also be paying an extra $4 million to keep Samardzija around this season...and denying Johnson a chance to work in the big leagues for 2 months like he should get, on top of all the other things. It's just a pretty rotten call to make. I mixed it up. The slot amount would be around $4 million. I meant that you could go under there. My bad. Points well taken. I just don't think the comp pick is the worst thing in the world if they don't get offered something more valuable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 03:50 PM) I mixed it up. The slot amount would be around $4 million. I meant that you could go under there. My bad. Points well taken. I just don't think the comp pick is the worst thing in the world if they don't get offered something more valuable. it's not the worst thing in the world...but you guys can't tell me this team has a shot at competing in the next 2 seasons and then take a comp pick for Samardzija. It just totally does not match up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 I would wait till the off-season to potentially trade Q. Give EJ a look, see if he can be a solid 4/5. See if Fulmer is as far along as some think and can take the Rodon route to the bigs. If you can get Shark back and go with Sale-Shark-Rodon-EJ-Danks/Fulmer they could be in good shape if they hit on the Shark/Q trades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 If the Sox could get Barnes for Samardzija I would be far beyond happy but I wouldn't bet on it. Going by what's being reported, the Dodgers are after a #1/2 type starter like Cueto or Hamels. IMHO, the Dodgers end up trading for Cueto because he is front line starter they are looking for and the Dodgers get first dibs on re-signing Cueto to replace Grienke after Grienke opts out when the World Series is over. I agree with those that say some Sox fans will be disappointed with the return on Samardzija. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gatnom Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:51 PM) it's not the worst thing in the world...but you guys can't tell me this team has a shot at competing in the next 2 seasons and then take a comp pick for Samardzija. It just totally does not match up. The question then becomes, how much better of are we really for the next 1-2 years with just a B prospect as a return? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:57 PM) If the Sox could get Barnes for Samardzija I would be far beyond happy but I wouldn't bet on it. Going by what's being reported, the Dodgers are after a #1/2 type starter like Cueto or Hamels. IMHO, the Dodgers end up trading for Cueto because he is front line starter they are looking for and the Dodgers get first dibs on re-signing Cueto to replace Grienke after Grienke opts out when the World Series is over. I agree with those that say some Sox fans will be disappointed with the return on Samardzija. And it sounds like the Dodgers are only looking at guys signed past this season as insurance for when Greinke opts out at the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 04:12 PM) And it sounds like the Dodgers are only looking at guys signed past this season as insurance for when Greinke opts out at the end of the year. If they want that, they're going to have to trade one of the guys they don't want to trade. That does set them up to get Hamels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 03:27 PM) If they want that, they're going to have to trade one of the guys they don't want to trade. That does set them up to get Hamels. Or they could trade Puig the guy they do want to trade instead, especially now that Crawford is back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian26 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Depends on what type of B/B+ prospect it is. Catcher? Make the deal. Anything else I'd be hesitant, and inclined to just get the draft pick. At this point, take the draft pick. So we might get back, with a B-prospect, someone who might be as good as Semien or Phegley? Geez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian26 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 I would wait till the off-season to potentially trade Q. Give EJ a look, see if he can be a solid 4/5. See if Fulmer is as far along as some think and can take the Rodon route to the bigs. If you can get Shark back and go with Sale-Shark-Rodon-EJ-Danks/Fulmer they could be in good shape if they hit on the Shark/Q trades. IS there actually talk that people want EJ back? LOL. Good Grief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Brian26 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 03:42 PM) IS there actually talk that people want EJ back? LOL. Good Grief. Have you looked at his Charlotte numbers at all? They're really good and it appears that whatever was causing his failure last year is gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Brian26 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 04:42 PM) IS there actually talk that people want EJ back? LOL. Good Grief. Erik Johnson, not Edwin Jackson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 QUOTE (Brian26 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 03:42 PM) IS there actually talk that people want EJ back? LOL. Good Grief. Somebody has to step into the rotation when a guy gets traded and EJ has put up as good of numbers as anyone else to warrant a shot again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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