Samardzija Trade Packages

[LDF]

each team will have different assets to pay in a trade situation. so there fore, each trade idea will have to be handled differently.

[southsider2k5]

LOL. I would love Mike Trout while we are dreaming outloud

 

That contract isn't exactly friendly.

[southsider2k5]

you really have to take each team's priorities. for this example, lets use Hou.

 

1. when did hou won the WS?

2. when was the last time hou was in the finals for the series.

3. when was the last time they make the playoff.

and lastly, at this time, can they, with the team assembled, can they make the playoff let alone go deep into the series.

 

now if they have to pay to get those players to help them, and even a chance to win the series, how much would the team pay for that??

 

Houston also has the Randy Johnson trade in the back of their minds.

[OmarComing25]

That contract isn't exactly friendly.

It is when you're 23 and the best player in baseball.

[fathom]

Yet, you think they'll give up Stroman for a rental?

 

No clue, but wouldn't shock me if Hoffman is viewed as a potential ace by Toronto, and Stroman more as a middle rotation type guy.

[Kyyle23]

That contract isn't exactly friendly.

 

there is no point in this post

[LittleHurt05]

That contract isn't exactly friendly.

 

It's widely considered one of the top contracts in baseball.

[kitekrazy]

Can we really get that much for Samardzija given that he's struggling and the team would only get him for two months? What would we give up for him from our system if we were in a position like Toronto is right now?

 

Maybe a GM could see the lack of run production contributes to that struggling.

 

[Balta1701]

Maybe a GM could see the lack of run production contributes to that struggling.

Problem is there's other things they can see too - like the worst strikeout and worst gb rates of his career - and think that he's actually not a very solid piece to add right now.

[Balta1701]

But what about his fWAR Balta? That's your go-to, be-all and end-all. I guess when the Sox have a guy on pace for 3+ WAR you don't mention it because it doesn't fit your narrative.

That leaves any team trading for him trading for 1 fWAR in July. 1 fWAR.

[shysocks]

That leaves any team trading for him trading for 1 fWAR in July. 1 fWAR.

3 WAR players have fetched plenty at the trade deadline. You know that.

[OmarComing25]

3 WAR players have fetched plenty at the trade deadline. You know that.

What are some recent examples?

[Balta1701]

3 WAR players have fetched plenty at the trade deadline. You know that.

They'll be able to get something for him but if they want something big-league ready or close to it they won't get anyone that impressive. Closest I could find to a guy like that, 3 months remaining and ~3 win player last year was the Brandon McCarthy deal and he brought back Vidal Nuno, 26 year old reliever I haven't heard of until right now.

[ChiSox59]

They'll be able to get something for him but if they want something big-league ready or close to it they won't get anyone that impressive. Closest I could find to a guy like that, 3 months remaining and ~3 win player last year was the Brandon McCarthy deal and he brought back Vidal Nuno, 26 year old reliever I haven't heard of until right now.

 

2 months of Andrew Miller turned into Eduardo Rodriguez last year.

[Chisoxfn]

They'll be able to get something for him but if they want something big-league ready or close to it they won't get anyone that impressive. Closest I could find to a guy like that, 3 months remaining and ~3 win player last year was the Brandon McCarthy deal and he brought back Vidal Nuno, 26 year old reliever I haven't heard of until right now.

McCarthy was a 3 WAR player on the season. He had a negative WAR (BR WAR since Fangraphs doesn't have the WAR breakout by team) with the Dbacks. So the Dbacks go nothing for a RHP who had a negative WAR at the time of trade. Not at all a valid comp in this equation.

 

- Jake Peavy was a 1WAR pitcher at the time we traded him.

- Shark was a 2 WAR pitcher at the time he was traded to Oakland

[shysocks]

What are some recent examples?

Just looking at last year's deadline, Andrew Miller, a relief pitcher with 1.3 WAR at the time of the trade, returned Eduardo Rodriguez, a top-25 prospect on at least one list who is now doing well in the majors. Martin Prado had 0.9 WAR when he was traded for Peter O'Brien, a catching prospect who will change positions but has plus power.

 

I'm not saying we're going to turn around the team based on who we get for Samardzija, but Balta was acting like 3 win players aren't worth anything.

[Balta1701]

2 months of Andrew Miller turned into Eduardo Rodriguez last year.

Teams are absolutely willing to overpay for relief help. For an example we're familiar with - the White Sox paid David Robertson more than he's worth in value terms. The Padres probably similarly overpaid a little bit for Kimbrel. I'd have no issues trying to move some of the better parts of our bullpen this deadline to see if someone takes a chance on them and is willing to overpay a bit.

[Balta1701]

McCarthy was a 3 WAR player on the season. He had a negative WAR (BR WAR since Fangraphs doesn't have the WAR breakout by team) with the Dbacks. So the Dbacks go nothing for a RHP who had a negative WAR at the time of trade. Not at all a valid comp in this equation.

 

- Jake Peavy was a 1WAR pitcher at the time we traded him.

- Shark was a 2 WAR pitcher at the time he was traded to Oakland

Oh come on, you're going to say the phrase "Not a valid comp in this equation" and then in the same breath you immediately cite 2 pitchers who were under team control for 1.5 years when they were traded as comparison for a guy who's a free agent this fall?

[Chisoxfn]

Just looking at last year's deadline, Andrew Miller, a relief pitcher with 1.3 WAR at the time of the trade, returned Eduardo Rodriguez, a top-25 prospect on at least one list who is now doing well in the majors. Martin Prado had 0.9 WAR when he was traded for Peter O'Brien, a catching prospect who will change positions but has plus power.

 

I'm not saying we're going to turn around the team based on who we get for Samardzija, but Balta was acting like 3 win players aren't worth anything.

His comp was also a negative win player. 3 win players are valuable. And in Shark's case, he's also coming off a 4.2 WAR season and posted 2.9 WAR's in the two seasons prior to that. He also pitched very well down the stretch for Oakland (in the thick of a playoff race, which should also help).

[Chisoxfn]

Oh come on, you're going to say the phrase "Not a valid comp in this equation" and then in the same breath you immediately cite 2 pitchers who were under team control for 1.5 years when they were traded as comparison for a guy who's a free agent this fall?

At least they had comparable WAR's and it wasn't as if Peavy's contract was a "bargain" at the time. Throwing a negative WAR player who had no long-term track record of success was awful. I just picked two recent Sox pitchers who were traded and their relative WAR's.

[Balta1701]

Just looking at last year's deadline, Andrew Miller, a relief pitcher with 1.3 WAR at the time of the trade, returned Eduardo Rodriguez, a top-25 prospect on at least one list who is now doing well in the majors. Martin Prado had 0.9 WAR when he was traded for Peter O'Brien, a catching prospect who will change positions but has plus power.

 

I'm not saying we're going to turn around the team based on who we get for Samardzija, but Balta was acting like 3 win players aren't worth anything.

I want to stress more here...I did not say that. I was replying to a specific note saying that teams might think some of his struggling was due to the poor team around him...with the important point that those same teams will say "but things he can control, like striking guys out and getting the ball weakly hit, are down too".

[shysocks]

Teams are absolutely willing to overpay for relief help. For an example we're familiar with - the White Sox paid David Robertson more than he's worth in value terms. The Padres probably similarly overpaid a little bit for Kimbrel. I'd have no issues trying to move some of the better parts of our bullpen this deadline to see if someone takes a chance on them and is willing to overpay a bit.

So teams are willing to overpay for relief help, but not starting pitching help.

 

Also, the bolded is arguably not true because Robertson has put up roughly 1.5 WAR every year forever and is basically being paid exactly like it.

[Chisoxfn]

I want to stress more here...I did not say that. I was replying to a specific note saying that teams might think some of his struggling was due to the poor team around him...with the important point that those same teams will say "but things he can control, like striking guys out and getting the ball weakly hit, are down too".

While his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is slightly up (both are still good numbers), he's also giving up a lot more hits (with a relatively constant HR rate). Didn't look into his line driver rate but I'd argue some of his current results are probably driven by our defense (which sucks) as well as potentially a little negative luck in their.

[Balta1701]

At least they had comparable WAR's and it wasn't as if Peavy's contract was a "bargain" at the time. Throwing a negative WAR player who had no long-term track record of success was awful. I just picked two recent Sox pitchers who were traded and their relative WAR's.

Jake Peavy was a guy under team control for 1.5 years, had an excellent 2013, and was viewed as a pretty solid bargain. That's why he was thought to be our asset on the trade market that year. When we got him to sign that contract people were excited because they thought he was helping us out.

[Balta1701]

While his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is slightly up (both are still good numbers), he's also giving up a lot more hits (with a relatively constant HR rate). Didn't look into his line driver rate but I'd argue some of his current results are probably driven by our defense (which sucks) as well as potentially a little negative luck in their.

His walk rate is actually down, but his strikeout, fly ball, and line drive rates are all the worst of his career as a starter. That's not on the defense, he's getting hit harder and striking out fewer players. If I'm looking at his line, I'm more than a little nervous and frankly looking at his line this year makes me extra-glad the Sox didn't extend him.

 

He is giving up more hits out of his ground balls than in previous years - that's the defense. His HR rate hasn't spiked despite the line drives and FB, so that's not hurting him as much as it could either.