Samardzija Trade Packages

[GreenSox]

I want to stress more here...I did not say that. I was replying to a specific note saying that teams might think some of his struggling was due to the poor team around him...with the important point that those same teams will say "but things he can control, like striking guys out and getting the ball weakly hit, are down too".

That bodes well for moving Putnam, whom we can replace with Webb, who is about to come into his own.

[Chisoxfn]

Jake Peavy was a guy under team control for 1.5 years, had an excellent 2013, and was viewed as a pretty solid bargain. That's why he was thought to be our asset on the trade market that year. When we got him to sign that contract people were excited because they thought he was helping us out.

I agree he was thought to be our asset, but that was a buyer's deadline from what I remember vs. this being viewed as a sellers deadline. I also think more teams would rather take Shark vs. the alternative and one thing to remember, sometimes teams prefer getting the guy with the expiring deal vs. another deal. During the deadline, one of the things we heard was a lot of teams shied away from Peavy because they weren't interested in having him come back. Could all have been posturing and by no scenario was I saying his contract was an albatross, it wasn't. Relatively speaking, he was paid fairly (you didn't have some huge salary arbitrage one way or the other).

[Balta1701]

I agree he was thought to be our asset, but that was a buyer's deadline from what I remember vs. this being viewed as a sellers deadline. I also think more teams would rather take Shark vs. the alternative and one thing to remember, sometimes teams prefer getting the guy with the expiring deal vs. another deal. During the deadline, one of the things we heard was a lot of teams shied away from Peavy because they weren't interested in having him come back. Could all have been posturing and by no scenario was I saying his contract was an albatross, it wasn't. Relatively speaking, he was paid fairly (you didn't have some huge salary arbitrage one way or the other).

Samardzija definitely is not in the same pool as Cole Hamels for guys teams are looking at to put them over the top given that some teams definitely will not be able to absorb Hamels's deal...but Jeff Samardzija is not even the best right handed starter nearing free agency on the trade market, that's Cueto.

[Chisoxfn]

Samardzija definitely is not in the same pool as Cole Hamels for guys teams are looking at to put them over the top given that some teams definitely will not be able to absorb Hamels's deal...but Jeff Samardzija is not even the best right handed starter nearing free agency on the trade market, that's Cueto.

So...Shark wasn't the best pitcher on the market last year either. That feat belonged to Price and Lester. Didn't mean the A's didn't get a lot for Shark. Their are a heck of a lot of teams that could be buyers and not many that are sellers. In fact, Sox might be one of the only teams ready to move guys (who have value) right now, which could actually put them in a better position to maximize value (as teams might want to pounce earlier vs. waiting a bit longer till other "sellers" emerge).

 

And w/Cueto and Shark, even small market teams can compete. You talk about a guy like Hamels and well...not many teams are going to get involved in that bidding (not with the money he is owed). Outside of who we are talking about (or other potential Sox starters), their isn't a whole lot of names out their right now and their are a lot of teams that would be interested in buying.

[GreenSox]

His walk rate is actually down, but his strikeout, fly ball, and line drive rates are all the worst of his career as a starter. That's not on the defense, he's getting hit harder and striking out fewer players. If I'm looking at his line, I'm more than a little nervous and frankly looking at his line this year makes me extra-glad the Sox didn't extend him.

Right, but as a rent, all teams need him for his this year. Rents are much cleaner transactions. Teams will pay more value than 1/2 a year of a good pitcher. What 1/2 a year of a good pitcher gets is another question. You have to hunt - find vulnerabilities of other teams and find places where they are overstocked and might overpay.

[Balta1701]

Right, but as a rent, all teams need him for his this year. Rents are much cleaner transactions. Teams will pay more value than 1/2 a year of a good pitcher. What 1/2 a year of a good pitcher gets is another question. You have to hunt - find vulnerabilities of other teams and find places where they are overstocked and might overpay.

And that's why I said that if you're insisting on a guy who's MLB ready right now...that's going to make that very tough.

[GreenSox]

And that's why I said that if you're insisting on a guy who's MLB ready right now...that's going to make that very tough.

Tough, but not impossible. I go back to the Pirates getting the catcher from the Yanks for a bullpen pitcher - and in December. Yanks have a lot of catchers. Find some surplus. Widen the horizons beyond dealing with Friends of Williams.

Knowing the Sox, they may just sell him off. Who knows.

[Chisoxfn]

And that's why I said that if you're insisting on a guy who's MLB ready right now...that's going to make that very tough.

If you don't get a guy MLB ready or close, then you might just be better off with the comp pick and going with your own scouting. I might be overvaluing Shark, you might be undervaluing him. Reality is probably somewhere in between you and I's posts but if you aren't getting a top 100 prospect and another guy who you like quite a bit (at a minimum), you probably shouldn't make the trade. On the flip side, if you turn it into a 3 team deal, you could find a team willing to give us a young position player and them getting prospects from the contender. Plenty of ways to structure this thing but I think if Sox are smart, they move Shark early while others are waiting to get in. Of course, it could back fire if they don't properly market his availability.

[southsider2k5]

If you don't get a guy MLB ready or close, then you might just be better off with the comp pick and going with your own scouting. I might be overvaluing Shark, you might be undervaluing him. Reality is probably somewhere in between you and I's posts but if you aren't getting a top 100 prospect and another guy who you like quite a bit (at a minimum), you probably shouldn't make the trade. On the flip side, if you turn it into a 3 team deal, you could find a team willing to give us a young position player and them getting prospects from the contender. Plenty of ways to structure this thing but I think if Sox are smart, they move Shark early while others are waiting to get in. Of course, it could back fire if they don't properly market his availability.

 

With this organization that is a recipe for disaster.

[Balta1701]

If you don't get a guy MLB ready or close, then you might just be better off with the comp pick and going with your own scouting. I might be overvaluing Shark, you might be undervaluing him. Reality is probably somewhere in between you and I's posts but if you aren't getting a top 100 prospect and another guy who you like quite a bit (at a minimum), you probably shouldn't make the trade. On the flip side, if you turn it into a 3 team deal, you could find a team willing to give us a young position player and them getting prospects from the contender. Plenty of ways to structure this thing but I think if Sox are smart, they move Shark early while others are waiting to get in. Of course, it could back fire if they don't properly market his availability.

That's a Helluva lot more than I'd expect in return for him, but we'll see.

[Chisoxfn]

With this organization that is a recipe for disaster.

No. I have full faith in them drafting a quality pitcher in the comp round (plenty of talent still available at that point). If we were drafting a position pitcher, probably would have that issue, but we missed the mark with Avisail (vs. Iglesias...whom would be just what the Dr. ordered in hindsight) and Davidson so I don't know if trading works better either.

[Balta1701]

No. I have full faith in them drafting a quality pitcher in the comp round (plenty of talent still available at that point). If we were drafting a position pitcher, probably would have that issue, but we missed the mark with Avisail (vs. Iglesias...whom would be just what the Dr. ordered in hindsight) and Davidson so I don't know if trading works better either.

Oh, Oh, don't forget how badly signing them in FA has worked!

 

Basically I think we just need to import all our position players from Cuba. It's the only thing that works!

[Chisoxfn]

Oh, Oh, don't forget how badly signing them in FA has worked!

 

Basically I think we just need to import all our position players from Cuba. It's the only thing that works!

Fixed for you. You might be onto something...just sign international FA's, haha.

[GreenSox]

your own scouting.

And therein lies the real Sox problem, along with lack of development.

So, frankly, I'd rather have a player another team has scouted and developed.

[Balta1701]

And therein lies the real Sox problem, along with lack of development.

So, frankly, I'd rather have a player another team has scouted and developed.

Like he said a moment ago...our record with that recently is "Matt Davidson, Avi Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Adam Eaton". That doesn't inspire confidence right now either.

[southsider2k5]

Like he said a moment ago...our record with that recently is "Matt Davidson, Avi Garcia, Conor Gillaspie, and Adam Eaton". That doesn't inspire confidence right now either.

 

To be fair, Gillaspie's deal wasn't exactly groundbreaking. The Garcia and Eaton deals were much bigger.

[Balta1701]

To be fair, Gillaspie's deal wasn't exactly groundbreaking. The Garcia and Eaton deals were much bigger.

I figured it fit as well. I think we have to go back to Carlos Quentin to find the White Sox making a solid trade for a position player. Maybe Juan Pierre other than that?

[southsider2k5]

I figured it fit as well. I think we have to go back to Carlos Quentin to find the White Sox making a solid trade for a position player. Maybe Juan Pierre other than that?

The difference I haven't quit on Garcia and Eaton, despite their starts, I stilll think both are at least MLB starting calibur players.

[Balta1701]

The difference I haven't quit on Garcia and Eaton, despite their starts, I stilll think both are at least MLB starting calibur players.

I think they could be but need work and coaching...and you can guess how much confidence I have in that.

[LDF]

I think they could be but need work and coaching...and you can guess how much confidence I have in that.

for eaton, i think that it is that 2yr jinx that always reels its ugly head.

[SCCWS]

So...Shark wasn't the best pitcher on the market last year either. That feat belonged to Price and Lester. Didn't mean the A's didn't get a lot for Shark. Their are a heck of a lot of teams that could be buyers and not many that are sellers. In fact, Sox might be one of the only teams ready to move guys (who have value) right now, which could actually put them in a better position to maximize value (as teams might want to pounce earlier vs. waiting a bit longer till other "sellers" emerge).

 

And w/Cueto and Shark, even small market teams can compete. You talk about a guy like Hamels and well...not many teams are going to get involved in that bidding (not with the money he is owed). Outside of who we are talking about (or other potential Sox starters), their isn't a whole lot of names out their right now and their are a lot of teams that would be interested in buying.

 

Boston will be a seller and Buchholz and Kelly will be available.

 

[Chisoxfn]

Boston will be a seller and Buchholz and Kelly will be available.

Why would Boston not pick up Clay's option for 2015 & 2016 (@ 13M each). Would think Boston isn't going to go full rebuild.

 

Kelly might be available but he has an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.43 and an ERA+ of 75. Only thing that looks decent is his FIP of 4.02. So with that in mind, if I'm Boston, why exactly am I selling him at his low point (he is under team control through 2019)?

[caulfield12]

Boston will be a seller and Buchholz and Kelly will be available.

 

Everything coming out of Boston has them holding onto Clay and ready to throw in the towel on Kelly, but definitely not just dumping him until he reestablishes some sort of bottom and comes back up (once again, another victim of the NL to AL switch). According to many, Brian Johnson is the "next big thing" in their rotation, although some of their other top prospects are struggling (Owens).

 

I'm sure there's a team in the NL (West, especially) who thinks he would be a useful piece for them.

 

And if TB can get something meaningful out of Erasmo Ramirez and a cast of AAA journeymen (along with David DeJesus), optimistic teams wouldn't be completely wrong to believe that. Of course, that's TB, worker of miracles even without Friedman and Maddon.

Edited June 23, 2015 by caulfield12

[SCCWS]

Why would Boston not pick up Clay's option for 2015 & 2016 (@ 13M each). Would think Boston isn't going to go full rebuild.

 

Kelly might be available but he has an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.43 and an ERA+ of 75. Only thing that looks decent is his FIP of 4.02. So with that in mind, if I'm Boston, why exactly am I selling him at his low point (he is under team control through 2019)?

 

I am guessing Boston will be looking for pitching back for Buchholz. He is the last of the WS pitchers left and I think both sides may want a change. I hope Boston would put a package together for Q w a young catcher but I wouldn't want Buch. Kelly was rumored to be odd man out in their rotation and could be sent back to AAA. My guess that is why his name is coming up. They also have Allen Craig, Bradley and Castillo sitting in AAA for trade bait as well.

 

[LDF]

I am guessing Boston will be looking for pitching back for Buchholz. He is the last of the WS pitchers left and I think both sides may want a change. I hope Boston would put a package together for Q w a young catcher but I wouldn't want Buch. Kelly was rumored to be odd man out in their rotation and could be sent back to AAA. My guess that is why his name is coming up. They also have Allen Craig, Bradley and Castillo sitting in AAA for trade bait as well.

 

i wouldn't want to trade with Bos, the rtn will really not help that much.