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2015 MLB Draft Thread - Discussion - DAY ONE


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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 11:32 PM)
Sox get a guy who went 13-2 with a 1.82 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 12 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in the best conference in college baseball.

That's true, but there's also the question of marginal benefit and diminishing returns.

The Sox have an Ace: Sale

Rodon was drafted to be an ace - he likely will be if he develops a 3rd pitch (which the Sox don't seem overly interested in, but still)

Fulmer was drafted to be an ace. (one would think with a top 10 pick; you certainly don't draft bullpen pitchers in the top 10)

They also have as dependable a 3 as you can get in Q, which means he slides to 4.

 

So, where do you get your most marginal benefit. From a 3rd ace, or from a hitter for an org devoid of hitters?

 

Not to mention that they have Montas and Danish a year or 2 away and Adams 2-3 years away. They also used their 3rd and 5th picks of 2014 for pitchers.

I think there's some diminishing returns at work.

Unless the sox move a quality arm for some young hitters.

Edited by GreenSox
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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 11:52 PM)
That's true, but there's also the question of marginal benefit and diminishing returns.

The Sox have an Ace: Sale

Rodon was drafted to be an ace - he likely will be if he develops a 3rd pitch (which the Sox don't seem overly interested in, but still)

Fulmer was drafted to be an ace. (one would think with a top 10 pick; you certainly don't draft bullpen pitchers in the top 10)

They also have as dependable a 3 as you can get in Q, which means he slides to 4.

 

So, where do you get your most marginal benefit. From a 3rd ace, or from a hitter for an org devoid of hitters?

I think there's some diminishing returns at work.

Unless the sox move an arm.

 

Sale: Ace

Rodon: Ace potential

Samardzjia: Elite #2

Jose Quintana: Elite #2

 

That's the starting four...

 

Fulmer: Ace potential

Adams: Ace potential

Danish: Elite #2 potential

Montas: Elite #2 potential

 

 

You simply need one of those four to be a good #5 for an elite rotation. Anything more and suddenly you've got some exciting and very valuable trade chips.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 05:58 AM)
Sale: Ace

Rodon: Ace potential Elite #2

Samardzjia: Elite #2

Jose Quintana: Elite #2

 

That's the starting four...

 

Fulmer: Ace potential Elite #2

Adams: Ace potential

Danish: Elite #2 potential solid #3

Montas: Elite #2 potential jury still out

 

 

You simply need one of those four to be a good #5 for an elite rotation. Anything more and suddenly you've got some exciting and very valuable trade chips.

interesting post. i may not agree with your ranking, but then again, everyone will have a different opinion.

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QUOTE (LDF @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 12:32 AM)
interesting post. i may not agree with your ranking, but then again, everyone will have a different opinion.

 

I'm higher on Danish than most, for what it's worth.

 

But this is all of their potentials if they hit their ceilings...floors...

 

Sale: Ace

Samardzjia: Good #3

Quintana: Good #3

Rodon: #4

 

Fulmer: Bullpen

Montas: Bullpen

Adams: #5

Danish: #5

 

Also imagine a rotation with Sale, Rodon, Samardzjia, Quintana and Fulmer/Danish. The intensity would be beyond insane. Quintana would look like the quietest pitcher in the universe.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 06:38 AM)
I'm higher on Danish than most, for what it's worth.

 

But this is all of their potentials if they hit their ceilings...floors...

 

Sale: Ace

Samardzjia: Good #3

Quintana: Good #3

Rodon: #4

 

Fulmer: Bullpen

Montas: Bullpen

Adams: #5

Danish: #5

 

Also imagine a rotation with Sale, Rodon, Samardzjia, Quintana and Fulmer/Danish. The intensity would be beyond insane. Quintana would look like the quietest pitcher in the universe.

 

oh man, i love this twist that you did.

 

the ceiling and the floor. really nice and great thinking. :drink

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There's not much out there about what Bregman wants financially but he had a floor when he was drafted out of HS and it couldn't be met. The slot for this pick is well over that amount so he may be happy with anything over what his floor was three years ago. Tucker is committed to Florida but reports are that he'll sign, the expectation is that he'll likely take something near slot.

 

Cameron is the issue. He dropped because of signability concerns. However, rumors have been out there since the fall that there were more potential pre-draft deals in the works than previous years. It's possible that there is already an agreed upon amounts for over slot and he just priced himself out of everyone else's budget to block them drafting him. Either way, the savings that may be possible from Bregman will help sign him. The Astros are not the type of organization that would risk drafting him without having plenty of confidence in being able to sign him. They'll also likely save money with future picks that will likely consist of one or two seniors. And, there's a chance that Eshelman signs below slot as he is was rated much lower by BA but has nothing to gain by returning for his senior season.

 

Day one is in the books and Astros fans have to love the results.

 

 

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/6/8/8750...day-one-wrap-up

 

 

 

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/...dians-at-no-17/

 

On Brady Aiken.

 

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2...ke_injured.html

Edited by caulfield12
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My pacemaker shut down last night due to draft fever. Watching the draft now #NoSpoilersPlease

 

Edit:

Great pick by the Sox, a high end righty now enters the system. I think that he can make it add a starter, this is a Sox pick to the fullest.

Edited by Joshua Strong
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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 11:32 PM)
Sox get a guy who went 13-2 with a 1.82 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 12 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in the best conference in college baseball.

I'm delighted with the Sox pick, I'm just concerned with the fact that they have just 1 pick in the first 3 rounds and are missing out on some impact hitting talent that the system badly needs

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 06:32 AM)
There's not much out there about what Bregman wants financially but he had a floor when he was drafted out of HS and it couldn't be met. The slot for this pick is well over that amount so he may be happy with anything over what his floor was three years ago. Tucker is committed to Florida but reports are that he'll sign, the expectation is that he'll likely take something near slot.

 

Cameron is the issue. He dropped because of signability concerns. However, rumors have been out there since the fall that there were more potential pre-draft deals in the works than previous years. It's possible that there is already an agreed upon amounts for over slot and he just priced himself out of everyone else's budget to block them drafting him. Either way, the savings that may be possible from Bregman will help sign him. The Astros are not the type of organization that would risk drafting him without having plenty of confidence in being able to sign him. They'll also likely save money with future picks that will likely consist of one or two seniors. And, there's a chance that Eshelman signs below slot as he is was rated much lower by BA but has nothing to gain by returning for his senior season.

 

Day one is in the books and Astros fans have to love the results.

 

 

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/6/8/8750...day-one-wrap-up

 

 

 

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/...dians-at-no-17/

 

On Brady Aiken.

 

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2...ke_injured.html

 

i am in agreement that Hou fleeced the whole competition, esp if they signed Comeron.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 05:35 AM)
I'm delighted with the Sox pick, I'm just concerned with the fact that they have just 1 pick in the first 3 rounds and are missing out on some impact hitting talent that the system badly needs

I think we need to see what they do in Latin America. I'm really hoping they decide to go all out for the 2015 signing season, starting with Eddy Julio Martinez. Obviously that is a long-shot, but they need to find a way to infuse some position talent into the system and with an international draft likely around the corner, this may be time to game the system. The problem is we aren't the only one thinking this way.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 10:35 AM)
I'm delighted with the Sox pick, I'm just concerned with the fact that they have just 1 pick in the first 3 rounds and are missing out on some impact hitting talent that the system badly needs

 

i am with you on this, but i also have to keeping reminding myself, this was a weak draft. the sox went out and got the BPA in their slot. with that, i am happy.

 

but hitters, there are still a slew of college juniors and seniors hitters avail. now they may not be superstar, but i believe, with luck, they may be serviceable everyday players. the kind that will help patch a team full of holes.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 11:18 AM)
I think we need to see what they do in Latin America. I'm really hoping they decide to go all out for the 2015 signing season, starting with Eddy Julio Martinez. Obviously that is a long-shot, but they need to find a way to infuse some position talent into the system and with an international draft likely around the corner, this may be time to game the system. The problem is we aren't the only one thinking this way.

 

with this, i am really on board.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 9, 2015 -> 05:38 AM)
I'm higher on Danish than most, for what it's worth.

 

But this is all of their potentials if they hit their ceilings...floors...

 

Sale: Ace a weak #1

Samardzjia: Good #3 strong 4, i think we saw this already

Quintana: Good #3

Rodon: #4 as of right now, i agree. still not enuf time

 

Fulmer: Bullpen

Montas: Bullpen

Adams: #5 solid #3 strong #4

Danish: #5

 

Also imagine a rotation with Sale, Rodon, Samardzjia, Quintana and Fulmer/Danish. The intensity would be beyond insane. Quintana would look like the quietest pitcher in the universe.

 

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 8, 2015 -> 03:53 PM)
http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=72142

 

You actually had posted this:

Oh and one guy the Sox have been linked to, Prep Outfielder Mike Trout (no strong ties, more tied to them based upon needs by other columnists), is demanding $2.5M, which is .1M less than Beckham got.

Wow. Tanner Scheppers wasn't the guy at all.

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i just wanted to add this final tidbit, at least for Fulmer.

 

how can any young pitcher not be extra excited, going #8, nice payday for yrs of hard work. on top of that, going to an org who has one of the games best pitching coach and a great pitching staff in the game today.

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