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6/10 GDT Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox


Condor13

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 10:06 PM)
Not to jinx the 9th, but the Sox have done a great job of limiting home runs by the Astros in the 6 game series. Jennings was only person to give one up, I believe.

Duke last night to Correa.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 09:57 PM)
Well that just strengthens my argument. If it's merely to stay out of the double play, that means you're expecting Soto to behave like he does in a normal at-bat. And Soto swings just 40% of the time, puts the ball in play about 35% of the time, and gets groundballs on his balls in play just 40% of the time. Therefore, he hits a groundball on roughly 6% of pitches. He gets hits on about 10% of pitches. He takes called strikes about 27% of the time and swinging strikes about 10% of the time. Therefore I have the chances at a groundball or hit at about 16% and a strikeout at about 37% of the time. Adjust somewhat for a 3-2 count if you want to but it's not gonna make up the difference.

But you are ignoring the situations his running is a push. The only gamble is striking out and lining out. Plus with 3 balls his chances for a walk are heightened.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 10, 2015 -> 10:07 PM)
But you are ignoring the situations his running is a push. The only gamble is striking out and lining out. Plus with 3 balls his chances for a walk are heightened.

I said adjustments can be made but I'm still right. You said the chance of a groundball/hit was higher than a K. I believe I have demonstrated that not to be true. As if to prove it, Soto just came up with a runner at first, looked at a strike, swung at a strike and looked at 4 straight balls. He just doesn't perform in a way that it's optimum to run with him there, particularly with my gripes about Avi not being a good runner.

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Yeah I thought he was out as well. Larch's foot went the front of home instead of back. But if that's definitive then I don't know how Avi's steal wasn't clear.

 

Edit: Stupid auto correct, but I vote that's his new nickname.

Edited by SoxPride18
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