The Carlos Rodon Thread

[chitownsportsfan]

So, I think Rodon's performance so far deserves its own thread.

 

Here's a couple links to get the discussion going:

 

Carlos Rodon Isn't a Finished Product (from 5/21 Fangraphs)

 

Inspired Rodon Showing Improvement (ESPN 6/9)

 

Some good quotes from everyone's favorite receiver in that 2nd article:

 

"He has a competitor mentality," White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers said. "We're not giving in, we're executing pitches. If we miss, we're missing in good spots, go get the next guy. To bounce back after [loading the bases], he did a good job of trusting his stuff. He wasn't overthinking when he missed or if he left something up. He did a good job of moving to the next pitch, which is the common characteristic of the very good pitchers at this level."

 

What do you guys think of his performance so far? Obviously he's been impressive but he's lacked command at times and seems to be struggling to add his changeup at the MLB level. Will he follow Sale as a power guy that develops a great changeup? Should he even really be focusing on that but perhaps more on his fastball command? What do you see as his peak years? Will he be the next great Chicago starter?

Edited June 10, 2015 by chitownsportsfan

[OmarComing25]

I knew there would be growing pains but I'm pretty impressed so far. His FIP (3.30) is pretty good too despite the walks (though that's largely due to his only giving up one dinger so far). He struggled mightily with his command early on but his last few starts he's really cut down on the walks. He's already good enough to be a good middle-to-back end of the rotation guy, and if he improves his command and changeup he could be dynamite. Certainly a hell of a lot better than watching Noesi every 5th day, that's for sure. Thank you Marlins/Astros.

[fathom]

I've been incredibly impressed. He's given up a ton of cheap hits this season, or else his ERA would be even better. I don't think he's ever going to be extremely efficient with his pitches, but he possesses that rare ability where he can work himself out of jams due to his stuff. I will never understand how a LHP that throws up to 97 mph and has one of the best sliders on the planet wasn't the first pick in the draft.

Edited June 10, 2015 by fathom

[Eminor3rd]

I just hope he actually CAN improve his command without substantial mechanical changes.

 

Not sure if this is behind a paywall, but if it is, everyone should consider getting a BP subscription SOLELY to read Doug Thorburn pieces: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26343

 

Throburn provides the most complete analysis of pitching mechanics I've seen anywhere, and it almost could not be more interesting, IMO. A couple excerpts from his conclusion section:

 

I gave Rodon a mechanics grade of a B+ in the 2015 Starting Pitcher Guide, which is just an incredible score for an amateur pitcher, though that grade was made without knowing much about his ability to repeat the delivery (his Repetition grade was N/A). After an extended viewing, I'm comfortable putting an above-average grade on his mechanical repetition (at least for his first start) with an even higher ceiling that justifies the B+ overall grade when factoring in his considerable upside.

 

His balance is exceptional, maintaining a stable head position above the center-of-mass in all three planes. There is virtually no drop or tilt, and Rodon avoids the Z-plane issues that cause a lot of young pitchers to trail behind the body during stride or to finish out in front. This is another area where Rodon is way ahead of the typical development curve, as most young pitchers are focused on power over stability, yet Rondon has established the physical baselines to support the optimism that his repetition will continue to improve. He does have some late spine tilt that takes him a bit off course, but I expect this to to improve as he develops physically and mechanically.

 

There are some young pitchers who will emphasize stability, but this typically comes at the expense of power, as the two attributes are naturally at odds and young players typically lack the experience to have found their own ideal signature. Once again, Rodon is atypical in this department, earning plus marks for both momentum and torque to fuel a power arsenal that is well supported by his mechanics. The torque is not quite what one might expect considering his ability to hit 99 mph from the left side, an aspect which speaks to Rodon's arm strength, but he earns plus marks for hip-shoulder separation when his trigger is well-timed (though he does have a tendency to rotate early in the kinetic chain).

 

The torque is mostly generated from Rodon's upper half due to late hip rotation that requires a significant delay in order to generate separation. He was slowed down a little bit when compared to his college days, an element which could have contributed to the incidence of early trunk rotation, though his direction of momentum remained strong throughout the delivery. The relative weak links in his delivery are largely interconnected, as momentum is the first piece of the equation for timing, and one can imagine future improvements with posture and repetition that go hand-in-hand.

 

Anyway, if Thorburn likes his mechanics, then I do too. He worked for some private company that did a ton of biomechanical research for teams.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[ChiSoxFanMike]

He's going to be an ace, no doubt about it.

 

He just needs to develop a changeup, which he will probably do this offseason.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he's our #2 starter next year.

[Dunt]

He's going to be an ace, no doubt about it.

 

He just needs to develop a changeup, which he will probably do this offseason.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he's our #2 starter next year.

 

He's our number 2 starter now

[chitownsportsfan]

He's our number 2 starter now

 

I certainly have more confidence when he starts than Shark.

[Harry Chappas]

He's our number 2 starter now

 

Yep

 

Is there any reason to believe his ceiling is not Chris Sale?

[southsider2k5]

Yep

 

Is there any reason to believe his ceiling is not Chris Sale?

 

He may even have a slightly higher ceiling as I think he can be a guy who goes out 225 IP each year.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Yep

 

Is there any reason to believe his ceiling is not Chris Sale?

I personally think his ceiling is higher than Chris Sale. He could be the best pitcher in the league someday.

[Jake]

I'm really excited about Rodon, but he still has two big things to prove. First, we haven't seen him throw strikes consistently in the MLB and it was something he fought in his last year at NC State as well. The other thing is I'd like to see a third pitch. You occasionally see dominant starters that pretty much just throw two pitches, but it's not an easy route to success. Throwing a serviceable change about 15-20% of the time would make it infinitely harder for hitters to get comfortable against him.

 

Since the comparisons to Sale are inevitable, it's worth mentioning that Sale had a very advanced changeup from the start and we never really saw him struggle with command. With that said, Rodon has his own advantages, namely that he's built like a tank and has a conventional, relatively low effort motion.

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm really excited about Rodon, but he still has two big things to prove. First, we haven't seen him throw strikes consistently in the MLB and it was something he fought in his last year at NC State as well. The other thing is I'd like to see a third pitch. You occasionally see dominant starters that pretty much just throw two pitches, but it's not an easy route to success. Throwing a serviceable change about 15-20% of the time would make it infinitely harder for hitters to get comfortable against him.

 

Since the comparisons to Sale are inevitable, it's worth mentioning that Sale had a very advanced changeup from the start and we never really saw him struggle with command. With that said, Rodon has his own advantages, namely that he's built like a tank and has a conventional, relatively low effort motion.

 

His motion is sexy. The way he drives through his massive trunks for legs...well, yea. He's built like a linebacker.

[ptatc]

I just hope he actually CAN improve his command without substantial mechanical changes.

 

Not sure if this is behind a paywall, but if it is, everyone should consider getting a BP subscription SOLELY to read Doug Thorburn pieces: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26343

 

Throburn provides the most complete analysis of pitching mechanics I've seen anywhere, and it almost could not be more interesting, IMO. A couple excerpts from his conclusion section:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, if Thorburn likes his mechanics, then I do too. He worked for some private company that did a ton of biomechanical research for teams.

He is correct for the most part although his version of mechanics is in line with the Andrews/wilk group out of birmingham. The one aspect that still concerns me which he didn't address is the follow through. This will be the continuing problem of high pitch counts and walks.

The author states that he get past some issues due to the arm strength and this may be an issue later on due to the poor deceleration phase.

[ptatc]

His motion is sexy. The way he drives through his massive trunks for legs...well, yea. He's built like a linebacker.

Maybe his hips are tight and that's what leads to the poor motion at the end.

[Quin]

I don't think Rodon has a higher ceiling than Sale.

 

Nor do I think Sale has a higher ceiling than Rodon.

 

That ceiling is best pitcher alive.

 

We're incredibly lucky that the Sox were the team to decide they would gamble on Sale and that the Astros were enamored with Aiken's youth and the Marlins with Kolek's power.

[ptatc]

I personally think his ceiling is higher than Chris Sale. He could be the best pitcher in the league someday.

Until he gets those pitch counts down, this will not happen.

[chitownsportsfan]

Maybe his hips are tight and that's what leads to the poor motion at the end.

 

Yea that's a good point. Get this man in Vinyasa class.

[Eminor3rd]

He is correct for the most part although his version of mechanics is in line with the Andrews/wilk group out of birmingham. The one aspect that still concerns me which he didn't address is the follow through. This will be the continuing problem of high pitch counts and walks.

The author states that he get past some issues due to the arm strength and this may be an issue later on due to the poor deceleration phase.

 

Price does the same type of thing, right?

[Feeky Magee]

I'm actually not terrifically happy with his performance so far, and I rate him extremely highly. His good ERA and FIP are more to do with a very unsustainable homer rate. His SIERA (probably the best avanced pitching metric) is 4.41. He's not throwing enough strikes (last performance was a lot better) and he needs the changeup.

 

However, I have full confidence he will become an excellent starter at the MLB level.

[Rowand44]

Nobody in the world has a higher ceiling than Sale.

 

Rodon is extremely impressive because he's not a finished product. He has a ton to still work on but he's managing to be damn good already.

[ptatc]

Price does the same type of thing, right?

I really haven't watched Price in detail. It's more comparable to Peavy, although not that drastic.

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm actually not terrifically happy with his performance so far, and I rate him extremely highly. His good ERA and FIP are more to do with a very unsustainable homer rate. His SIERA (probably the best avanced pitching metric) is 4.41. He's not throwing enough strikes (last performance was a lot better) and he needs the changeup.

 

However, I have full confidence he will become an excellent starter at the MLB level.

 

Yea but the stock right now is "buy". He's 22 and pitching in MLB, he was put in some really horse s*** spots early on. He's been lucky on HR rate no doubt but for the most part he's held his own and lately he's been turning it on. Also, the raw stuff is there. Those concerns about his fastball falling to 90-93 seem laughable at this point.

 

I still can't believe in my lifetime the Sox drafted the #1 overall player in the draft by a huge margin and they somehow got him at #3. Thank god for the f***ing rules changes a couple years ago on bonuses.

[ptatc]

Yea but the stock right now is "buy". He's 22 and pitching in MLB, he was put in some really horse s*** spots early on. He's been lucky on HR rate no doubt but for the most part he's held his own and lately he's been turning it on. Also, the raw stuff is there. Those concerns about his fastball falling to 90-93 seem laughable at this point.

 

I still can't believe in my lifetime the Sox drafted the #1 overall player in the draft by a huge margin and they somehow got him at #3. Thank god for the f***ing rules changes a couple years ago on bonuses.

He wasn't put in bad spots. He was put in easyspots. His first first hitter was a lefty who can't hit lefties. Hejust pitched poorly early on and has made some adjustments and improved.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

He wasn't put in bad spots. He was put in easyspots. His first first hitter was a lefty who can't hit lefties. Hejust pitched poorly early on and has made some adjustments and improved.

I think he was referring to the situation he was put in, not necessarily the hitter was facing.

 

You don't put a guy that has been starting his whole life in a high intensity relief situation with runners on the corners in his Major League Debut. That just set him up for failure from the start.

[Balta1701]

Off topic...I get Rodon vs. Liriano on Monday. Now there's an intriguing matchup knowing how Liriano's career arc has gone.