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Optimistic view of 2016


caulfield12

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 01:12 PM)
People don't like trading prospects for hitters because too many people think guys like Montas will be stars, when, in reality, the odds are still against him.

Or maybe it's because the hitters the Sox sign or trade for suddenly can't hit.

Edited by GreenSox
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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 03:33 PM)
Trade them for what? More veterans? For hitting prospects of equal ability? The latter is fine by me, but the Sox had the best hitter in the draft fall right in their lap and they passed him on.

If one decries the Shark trade (as I also do) it's tough to trade the few young players we have.

2017 is a better target, just like 2016 was 6 months ago

 

There have been good young players available for players like Shark and middle relievers. The Sox need to find a couple.

 

What exactly do you hate about the Shark trade? Yeah, he's been pretty damn mediocre. But it looked worse when Semien was hitting, but he is hitting .180 the past month and is literally one of the most comically bad shortstops in recent history. Phegley is garbage, Ravelo hasn't appeared in a game this year and Bassit has been Ok but unspectacular in AAA.

 

It hasn't really panned out to this point, but let's not act like the SOX gave up their future.

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My optimistic view:

 

1.) Pitching and defense win championships, the Sox seem pretty flush in one of those areas and have some reinforcements on the way. They can continue to trot out Sale-Q-Rodon-?-Danks and have a decent chance of winning most of the time. If they can make some steps forward defensively, I think they can be above .500 with their offense staying at the same level.

2.) I think their offense will improve. Sometimes players just have bad seasons, I really dont expect Melky, Alexei, and Eaton to be this awful next season. I dont even expect Alexei to be here honestly.

3.) Whether it be a comp pick or a nice trade piece, the Sox will get something important for the future with Samardzija.

4.) You can fix next years team in free agency without breaking the bank. Want to immediately upgrade two positions? Sign Alex Avila and Howie Kendrick. Wanna spend big? Swing a trade of LaRoche to the Cards, then bring it Justin Upton to play RF and have Avi move to DH.

5.) Pitching will always be this organizations forte, but they will never be truly elite without identifying that the need to have excellent defense. Identify your weak spots and minimize their defensive impact on the team. There is no way Tyler Flowers, Conor Gillaspie/Gordon Beckham, or Avi should have starting spots in the field next year.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 03:48 PM)
What exactly do you hate about the Shark trade? Yeah, he's been pretty damn mediocre. But it looked worse when Semien was hitting, but he is hitting .180 the past month and is literally one of the most comically bad shortstops in recent history. Phegley is garbage, Ravelo hasn't appeared in a game this year and Bassit has been Ok but unspectacular in AAA.

 

It hasn't really panned out to this point, but let's not act like the SOX gave up their future.

 

Samardjiza hasn't pitched well for sure, but we didn't really give up anything of value to get him. If Semien was here, everyone would hate him for his defense. And no, the move from SS to 2B wouldn't eliminate that.

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 02:49 PM)
My optimistic view:

 

1.) Pitching and defense win championships, the Sox seem pretty flush in one of those areas and have some reinforcements on the way. They can continue to trot out Sale-Q-Rodon-?-Danks and have a decent chance of winning most of the time. If they can make some steps forward defensively, I think they can be above .500 with their offense staying at the same level.

2.) I think their offense will improve. Sometimes players just have bad seasons, I really dont expect Melky, Alexei, and Eaton to be this awful next season. I dont even expect Alexei to be here honestly.

3.) Whether it be a comp pick or a nice trade piece, the Sox will get something important for the future with Samardzija.

4.) You can fix next years team in free agency without breaking the bank. Want to immediately upgrade two positions? Sign Alex Avila and Howie Kendrick. Wanna spend big? Swing a trade of LaRoche to the Cards, then bring it Justin Upton to play RF and have Avi move to DH.

5.) Pitching will always be this organizations forte, but they will never be truly elite without identifying that the need to have excellent defense. Identify your weak spots and minimize their defensive impact on the team. There is no way Tyler Flowers, Conor Gillaspie/Gordon Beckham, or Avi should have starting spots in the field next year.

 

I'm pretty sure the last time Avila was really good was 2011...his WAR over the last three seasons (not counting this injury-plagued one) has been 4.9 cumulatively, but I suppose HOPING for 1.6 MIGHT be an upgrade. Of course, that's if he is healthy...and he's at that age where catchers start to break down (AJ to the contrary).

 

From 2011-2015, Kendrick was a VERY solid player, but he's fallen off the map this year with the Dodgers and will be 32 next year...

 

They're not the worst ideas in the world (buy low candidates), but will they move the bar very much to justify the extra spending?

 

Someone else mentioned trading LaRoche to the Cards, and eventually replacing him with Davis of the Orioles. That's also not a bad idea, but you still have a logjam of DH's in the outfield with Avi and Cabrera....and you're using scant resources to chase after the same players like Cespedes, Zobrist, Heyward and Alex Gordon that everyone will be targeting at top-dollar rates if you want to improve the outfield without a trade.

 

 

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 04:48 PM)
What exactly do you hate about the Shark trade? Yeah, he's been pretty damn mediocre. But it looked worse when Semien was hitting, but he is hitting .180 the past month and is literally one of the most comically bad shortstops in recent history. Phegley is garbage, Ravelo hasn't appeared in a game this year and Bassit has been Ok but unspectacular in AAA.

 

It hasn't really panned out to this point, but let's not act like the SOX gave up their future.

 

Actually Phegley is having a good year so far both offensively and throwing out runners.

 

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QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 05:38 PM)
Actually Phegley is having a good year so far both offensively and throwing out runners.

 

 

Let's just put it this way, his 1 WAR as a part-timer is putting Flowers and Soto to shame, and he's actually improved defensively from what we saw in Chicago.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 14, 2015 -> 11:48 PM)
Do you see any other way to turn around the worst offense/defense in baseball without trading away pitching?

 

It's certainly not going out and signing Upton, Heyward and Alex Gordon.

Caulfield, I think you and some others underplay what our current underachievers can bring on the market.

I happen to believe the do-over I've suggested will work and Sox can get a bushel full of players for LaRoche, Shark, Robertson, Duke, Lexi and Melky. These guys are sucking now but still have baseball left in them in the NL. We can re-build the roster quickly and efficiently IMO!

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 03:38 PM)
Looking at the onslaught of position players joining the big leagues with highly anticipated debuts, I have to wonder if the Sox will have come out of a generational surplus of hitting talent empty handed because of organizational deficiencies, though possible they were able to take advantage by getting better pitching talent than they otherwise would have.

 

Interesting thought. The Cubs have been drafting and acquiring hitters as the new market inefficiency, while the Sox keep finding pitching yet losing games.

 

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 15, 2015 -> 11:19 PM)
Interesting thought. The Cubs have been drafting and acquiring hitters as the new market inefficiency, while the Sox keep finding pitching yet losing games.

 

 

I don't think it's the hitters that are the market inefficiency, as much as those trades that replenished the system by taking struggling pitchers from other teams and turning them all into assets:

 

Feldman and Clevenger to the Orioles for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop and international signing money

 

Samardzija/Hammel (who they got back, another form of market inefficiency the Cubs can exploit, the popularity of playing for the Cubs in a stadium that's going through "exciting" renovations) for a Top 10 player in Addison Russell as well at Top 10 prospect in former first rounder Billy McKinney

 

Garza to the Rangers for Olt, Justin Grimm (he has been helpful to the bullpen), Neil Ramirez, CJ Edwards (another Top 10 prospect)...Olt was a bust but that still turned out okay

 

Then they took advantage of their "big market" status to go after Jorge Soler...as well as:

 

Chicago added more talent in the July 2 international signing period, signing the top two prospects available, Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez and Venezuelan shortstop Gleyber Torres, for a combined $4.5 million. The organization spent more than $7.6 million on its top five international signings, blowing past its international bonus pool of more than $5.5 million.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014...p-10-prospects/

 

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 16, 2015 -> 12:13 AM)
Caulfield, I think you and some others underplay what our current underachievers can bring on the market.

I happen to believe the do-over I've suggested will work and Sox can get a bushel full of players for LaRoche, Shark, Robertson, Duke, Lexi and Melky. These guys are sucking now but still have baseball left in them in the NL. We can re-build the roster quickly and efficiently IMO!

 

He has NOT sucked. The others, ok.

 

How about this...maybe develop some positional prospects in the minors. Don't necessarily have to draft a Mike Trout. What I see is a bunch of mashers that SO 200 times a year. And...they...never...change. OR, you get a light hitting defensive wizard. That's all this org churns out recently. That needs to change.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jun 16, 2015 -> 03:56 PM)
In 78 ABs...Micah Johnson for example has 74 ABs. Sample sizes are your friend.

 

Agree but those numbers would be great for a Number 2. He also has one of the highest averages in ML for throwing out baserunners.

 

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The Sox got played hard by Oakland for Shark, that much is obvious in retrospect. Chicago made the deal because they thought they were close to contending and thus overpaid slightly to get him. Well, not only did they not get good value, they didn't get a playoff push either.

 

Phegley will never be anything more than backup (at best) but Semien and Bassit have chances to be solid regulars. In Semian's case he would the 2nd highest WAR on the team right now for position players. FML.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 16, 2015 -> 03:44 PM)
The Sox got played hard by Oakland for Shark, that much is obvious in retrospect. Chicago made the deal because they thought they were close to contending and thus overpaid slightly to get him. Well, not only did they not get good value, they didn't get a playoff push either.

 

Phegley will never be anything more than backup (at best) but Semien and Bassit have chances to be solid regulars. In Semian's case he would the 2nd highest WAR on the team right now for position players. FML.

Sox fans would still hate him because he's an awful defender.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 16, 2015 -> 09:44 PM)
The Sox got played hard by Oakland for Shark, that much is obvious in retrospect. Chicago made the deal because they thought they were close to contending and thus overpaid slightly to get him. Well, not only did they not get good value, they didn't get a playoff push either.

 

Phegley will never be anything more than backup (at best) but Semien and Bassit have chances to be solid regulars. In Semian's case he would the 2nd highest WAR on the team right now for position players. FML.

 

 

My guess is the Sox continue their attempt to sign the Shark to a deal

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 16, 2015 -> 03:44 PM)
The Sox got played hard by Oakland for Shark, that much is obvious in retrospect. Chicago made the deal because they thought they were close to contending and thus overpaid slightly to get him. Well, not only did they not get good value, they didn't get a playoff push either.

 

Phegley will never be anything more than backup (at best) but Semien and Bassit have chances to be solid regulars. In Semian's case he would the 2nd highest WAR on the team right now for position players. FML.

 

Honestly, that trade didnt really shake out for either team, so I wouldnt be all that upset with the result. Atleast the Sox will:

 

A.) Resign Samardzija

B.) Get a comp pick

C.) Trade for a usable asset for the future

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 16, 2015 -> 03:44 PM)
The Sox got played hard by Oakland for Shark, that much is obvious in retrospect. Chicago made the deal because they thought they were close to contending and thus overpaid slightly to get him. Well, not only did they not get good value, they didn't get a playoff push either.

 

Phegley will never be anything more than backup (at best) but Semien and Bassit have chances to be solid regulars. In Semian's case he would the 2nd highest WAR on the team right now for position players. FML.

 

Semien is now barely outhitting Conor Gillaspie. I won't even talk about his glove.

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