caulfield12 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 We're really in the middle of no man's land...where there's a PLAUSIBLE scenario of making the playoffs, albeit one that only about 10-15% of fans are willing to buy into. Surely, there won't be any bump in attendance at all until the team makes it back to .500, and the odds of that happening are not that great if we deal Samardzija. Well, let's just say that Erik Johnson doesn't give as much confidence as Shark the way he's pitched the past two months. But picking in the teens compared to #5-8 really significantly decreases our opportunity of drafting an impact collegiate hitter like a Schwarber right away...over the last 10-15 years or so, how many college bats in the 10-15 range of the draft have moved up to the majors in that draft year or the following one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Either go 40-27 for 85 wins, or 27-40 for 90 losses. One or the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp Well, while it's predicting us to have a better chance to make the wild card than three teams, that still leaves 5-6 ahead of us. Toronto is the scenario here, ahead of the Twins. Despite us taking three in a row against the Indians, they still have better odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 08:56 AM) http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp Well, while it's predicting us to have a better chance to make the wild card than three teams, that still leaves 5-6 ahead of us. Toronto is the scenario here, ahead of the Twins. Despite us taking three in a row against the Indians, they still have better odds. You take those "odds" a little too seriously. They have improved the defense with Saldino and Sanchez and Alexei playing much better. If the White Sox hit like they were supposed to hit they have a shot, although slim, vut they do have enough pitching to win when scoring 2 or 3 . If they revert back to what it was before this series, they have no shot. Every season is unique. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 (edited) A while back I said the Sox should stay with what they have if they're 50-50 waking up on July 31. Then I changed that to 49-51....and I still believe that. So when they lose their 2nd of the next five games, make trades. If it never comes, ride it out with what they have, and hope for a miracle. Edited July 26, 2015 by flavum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 08:07 AM) You take those "odds" a little too seriously. They have improved the defense with Saldino and Sanchez and Alexei playing much better. If the White Sox hit like they were supposed to hit they have a shot, although slim, vut they do have enough pitching to win when scoring 2 or 3 . If they revert back to what it was before this series, they have no shot. Every season is unique. So when you go to Las Vegas, you would change your bet at the blackjack table based upon "feel" or "momentum"? I'm sure you would rather they stood pat and didn't trade Samardzija. On the other hand, I'm sure you're also waiting to defend the organization no matter who they get back in return via trade. Sure, we just scored 10 runs so things (for the moment, which lasts as long as today's starting pitcher) seem more optimistic, but the improvement of those guys doesn't take into account the fact that LaRoche and Garcia have pretty much disappeared. Are we really supposed to believe that Alexei has been psychologically affected so deeply by off field stuff and now he's miraculously back to the player he was in 2014 and will be able to sustain that for the next two months because he's been hot for a week or two? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 10:47 AM) So when you go to Las Vegas, you would change your bet at the blackjack table based upon "feel" or "momentum"? I'm sure you would rather they stood pat and didn't trade Samardzija. On the other hand, I'm sure you're also waiting to defend the organization no matter who they get back in return via trade. Sure, we just scored 10 runs so things (for the moment, which lasts as long as today's starting pitcher) seem more optimistic, but the improvement of those guys doesn't take into account the fact that LaRoche and Garcia have pretty much disappeared. Are we really supposed to believe that Alexei has been psychologically affected so deeply by off field stuff and now he's miraculously back to the player he was in 2014 and will be able to sustain that for the next two months because he's been hot for a week or two? I don't even like Samardjiza, so you really have no idea what I think. But if it is for some #15 and #30 guys in some team's system, if you want to go by the math, the odds are better you hang on to him and the potential draft pick than the others panning out. LaRoche and Garcia will start hitting again. The others won't keep up this mini pace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 09:59 AM) I don't even like Samardjiza, so you really have no idea what I think. But if it is for some #15 and #30 guys in some team's system, if you want to go by the math, the odds are better you hang on to him and the potential draft pick than the others panning out. LaRoche and Garcia will start hitting again. The others won't keep up this mini pace. We heard the same thing about Beckham and he simply disappeared from the face of the earth. There's no way we're not going to get a player in some system's 6-10, or two guys in the 11-20 range. The odds are not better simply because we've failed to produce any position players in a decade, let alone one drafted outside of the top 30 players. We're talking a Keenyn Walker or Jared Mitchell like player in terms of draft positioning. If there's a choice between guys like Iglesias and Garcia who can contribute in 2016....versus waiting on a prayer for 2018-19, there's just no way to justify "further rebuilding" when you have a rotation ready to contend. If the White Sox were allocating $200 million to be added in additional payroll before next season....sure, but it's more likely to be $25-35 million in new monies that we spend than $125-135 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 05:28 PM) We heard the same thing about Beckham and he simply disappeared from the face of the earth. There's no way we're not going to get a player in some system's 6-10, or two guys in the 11-20 range. The odds are not better simply because we've failed to produce any position players in a decade, let alone one drafted outside of the top 30 players. We're talking a Keenyn Walker or Jared Mitchell like player in terms of draft positioning. If there's a choice between guys like Iglesias and Garcia who can contribute in 2016....versus waiting on a prayer for 2018-19, there's just no way to justify "further rebuilding" when you have a rotation ready to contend. If the White Sox were allocating $200 million to be added in additional payroll before next season....sure, but it's more likely to be $25-35 million in new monies that we spend than $125-135 million. the reign of KW is still going to affect how things are going to be done. the lack of prospects, esp lack of any catching prospects is going to kill this team. the problem will be how to find a happy medium between the obvious choices.... fa's rt, trade rt, draft rt and i will keep this separate the int'l draft rt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 11:47 AM) So when you go to Las Vegas, you would change your bet at the blackjack table based upon "feel" or "momentum"? I'm sure you would rather they stood pat and didn't trade Samardzija. On the other hand, I'm sure you're also waiting to defend the organization no matter who they get back in return via trade. Sure, we just scored 10 runs so things (for the moment, which lasts as long as today's starting pitcher) seem more optimistic, but the improvement of those guys doesn't take into account the fact that LaRoche and Garcia have pretty much disappeared. Are we really supposed to believe that Alexei has been psychologically affected so deeply by off field stuff and now he's miraculously back to the player he was in 2014 and will be able to sustain that for the next two months because he's been hot for a week or two? This isn't cards, this is baseball. It's not a coin flip every day you show up to the ballpark. You have to look at your team and decide if it's good enough that you expect to win a lot of games or if it's not good enough. The game is subject to random variation in many ways, but in the end the best team tends to win the game over time. The main judgment the Sox need to make is how good this team is and what they stand to gain by making any trades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Well, one thing's for sure...we're not going to hear from KW or Hahn how the unprecedented level of support in terms of tickets sold is allowing the White Sox to not only add Melky Cabrera, but we're now even able to acquire XYZ player (probably Manny Ramirez again) because the Sox fans believed in this team even when they were 10 games below .500 and also due to the anomalous 30th out of 30 local tv ratings, haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 03:18 PM) This isn't cards, this is baseball. It's not a coin flip every day you show up to the ballpark. You have to look at your team and decide if it's good enough that you expect to win a lot of games or if it's not good enough. The game is subject to random variation in many ways, but in the end the best team tends to win the game over time. The main judgment the Sox need to make is how good this team is and what they stand to gain by making any trades. The problem is that two weeks ago, especially if they would have swept the Cubs on Sunday, you'd have said "go for it." Then they proceeded to go 1-6, got ripped by the Royals (again, and without Alex Gordon or the "ace" version of Ventura) and that signified what? A return to the usual pattern. Then another two losses to the Cardinals at home, with one of them a heartbreaker. So now if we did sweep not only the Indians but the also the Red Sox (two last place teams), would we be able to take something significant out of it because it happened on the road? I don't know. I feel more confidence in Minnesota slipping/sliding back to the pack than the White Sox being "the best team." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 5 days...they went from the 8th pick to the 14th pick. Now the Sox are 4 games back in the loss column from being a top 10 team in baseball. Winning in bunches works wonders for jumping teams in the standings. Imagine that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 06:50 AM) Either go 40-27 for 85 wins, or 27-40 for 90 losses. One or the other. In baseball, even if we missed the trade, I'd root for the wins. We have young players and can win games and that is better off then any value in difference of picks that could be so far from helping the club. In other sports, I buy the tank / stink argument, in baseball, I absolutely do not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 06:55 PM) In baseball, even if we missed the trade, I'd root for the wins. We have young players and can win games and that is better off then any value in difference of picks that could be so far from helping the club. In other sports, I buy the tank / stink argument, in baseball, I absolutely do not. it does matter to tank and sink, but if the sox miss the playoff and yet make no trades, then the system is ok. but if the sox made trades to make a run, what will be left for the club to build on??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 QUOTE (LDF @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 04:03 PM) it does matter to tank and sink, but if the sox miss the playoff and yet make no trades, then the system is ok. but if the sox made trades to make a run, what will be left for the club to build on??? Nowhere is the value of a 1st round pick less, then in baseball. The value of winning, because, dare I say it, your players are doing good, is so much better then the difference in the #5 pick of the #12 pick. The one exception is if you are winning because of 3 or 4 guys, all of which are going to be gone with no compensation at the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Speaking of the #12 pick, we're now tied for 11th with two teams, the Tigers and Padres. 3 1/2 GB of the wild card spot, 5 1/2 GB of last place in the AL (Oakland A's). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 11:06 PM) Nowhere is the value of a 1st round pick less, then in baseball. The value of winning, because, dare I say it, your players are doing good, is so much better then the difference in the #5 pick of the #12 pick. The one exception is if you are winning because of 3 or 4 guys, all of which are going to be gone with no compensation at the end of the season. I agree. The Sox are just going to draft a college pitcher who will turn into a reliever probably. This Sox team keeps creeping to .500 then goes in the tank. That's just wrong. This team is so close to contention it's disappointing to me every time they lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank_Thomas Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 1, 2015 -> 03:05 AM) I agree. The Sox are just going to draft a college pitcher who will turn into a reliever probably. This Sox team keeps creeping to .500 then goes in the tank. That's just wrong. This team is so close to contention it's disappointing to me every time they lose. Preach Greg and I agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 11th pick. They'll enter the final weekend of the season with 74 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 1, 2015 -> 03:05 AM) I agree. The Sox are just going to draft a college pitcher who will turn into a reliever probably. This Sox team keeps creeping to .500 then goes in the tank. That's just wrong. This team is so close to contention it's disappointing to me every time they lose. Kind of like Sale, Rodon, and Fulmer huh? Don't speak about things you have no clue about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 4, 2015 -> 09:36 AM) Kind of like Sale, Rodon, and Fulmer huh? Don't speak about things you have no clue about. I wouldn't pull the Fulmer card just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 4, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) I wouldn't pull the Fulmer card just yet. Heck, even Rodon is far from a surefire All-Star at this point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 If this loosing streak continues, I am jumping back on the tank bandwagon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shipps Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Aug 1, 2015 -> 03:18 AM) Preach Greg and I agree Ahh the Church Of Greg appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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