southsider2k5 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 11:47 AM) I heard that, problem is I don't know what that means. How does "off the bat velocity" translate to production? He's got that inside out swing to take the ball to RF, does that lead to a higher off-the-bat velocity? To me it would tell me that high velocity off of the bat = line drives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 11:10 AM) I agree with you. he needs to show more power though. I don't know if it shows up this season, but in the past he has a groundball rate you would expect from Juan Pierre. If he could get the ball in the air more, he could probably hit is as far as anybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 09:58 AM) To me it would tell me that high velocity off of the bat = line drives. For that I'd rather look at LD%'s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 12:03 PM) I don't know if it shows up this season, but in the past he has a groundball rate you would expect from Juan Pierre. If he could get the ball in the air more, he could probably hit is as far as anybody. IIRC, weren't some Sox players in awe last year watching Avi in BP? Something about how Avi was hitting the ball further than Dunn? I agree with those that say patience with Avi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 01:20 PM) IIRC, weren't some Sox players in awe last year watching Avi in BP? Something about how Avi was hitting the ball further than Dunn? I agree with those that say patience with Avi. He absolutely has the power in him, the problem is that in the game he doesn't use it. His approach is all about going to the opposite field and it sacrifices his ability to use that power. He barely pulls the ball with authority and that leaves him especially vulnerable to pitches on the inner half. He can take pitches that are away and drive them the other way but if you can't pull the ball middle of the plate in, you're not going to be able to exploit that power, and that's right where he is now. Patience is fine with players like him as long as we're not counting on them to lead us to a playoff spot before guys reach free agency. Oh, and he's also a first-year arb guy next year, so after 2016 patience starts having a clock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 05:30 PM) He absolutely has the power in him, the problem is that in the game he doesn't use it. His approach is all about going to the opposite field and it sacrifices his ability to use that power. He barely pulls the ball with authority and that leaves him especially vulnerable to pitches on the inner half. He can take pitches that are away and drive them the other way but if you can't pull the ball middle of the plate in, you're not going to be able to exploit that power, and that's right where he is now. Patience is fine with players like him as long as we're not counting on them to lead us to a playoff spot before guys reach free agency. Oh, and he's also a first-year arb guy next year, so after 2016 patience starts having a clock. you know how many young hitter can't even do that??? i say, let him continue to develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (LDF @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 01:56 PM) you know how many young hitter can't even do that??? i say, let him continue to develop. Are you prepared to pay him $2 million in 2016 if he continues playing like this? Probably. Are you prepared to pay him $4.5 million in 2017 if he continues playing like this through 2016? That's the level we offered Viciedo but narrowly and then cut him loose in order to sign a win-now player. By 2016 the clock officially starts ticking on him to perform. If he doesn't show improvement next year and the White Sox continue their "win every year" offseasons, replacing him will look like a major upgrade. It will look like Viciedo looked in this year's OF - a "we can't compete if he's in this position, we need to upgrade it" slot. He's fine for a rebuilding roster and I have no problem picking up other guys like him if we're rebuilding, but right now he's absolutely in the way of a competitive team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 06:00 PM) Are you prepared to pay him $2 million in 2016 if he continues playing like this? Probably. Are you prepared to pay him $4.5 million in 2017 if he continues playing like this through 2016? That's the level we offered Viciedo but narrowly and then cut him loose in order to sign a win-now player. By 2016 the clock officially starts ticking on him to perform. If he doesn't show improvement next year and the White Sox continue their "win every year" offseasons, replacing him will look like a major upgrade. It will look like Viciedo looked in this year's OF - a "we can't compete if he's in this position, we need to upgrade it" slot. He's fine for a rebuilding roster and I have no problem picking up other guys like him if we're rebuilding, but right now he's absolutely in the way of a competitive team. with ref to the salary cap, there were many more screw up than giving him 2 mil. however i would like to see how he does in the season of 2016 before i decided how to look at the whole picture then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (LDF @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 02:12 PM) with ref to the salary cap, there were many more screw up than giving him 2 mil. however i would like to see how he does in the season of 2016 before i decided how to look at the whole picture then. The 2m in 2016 is not a big deal, it's the "if he remains this same player he can 100% completely sabotage people's plans for how this team competes next year". If you're like me and think this franchise is a mess you don't care about that, you play him and see if maybe something turns out well. But, if you're like the people who argue "we just need 1 or 2 more pieces" like some in this thread...if he remains this player filling the 3b and SS holes will not be enough. In 2017 the money actually starts becoming a big deal. That's a lot to pay a guy if his track record is a below-replacement player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 11:18 AM) The 2m in 2016 is not a big deal, it's the "if he remains this same player he can 100% completely sabotage people's plans for how this team competes next year". If you're like me and think this franchise is a mess you don't care about that, you play him and see if maybe something turns out well. But, if you're like the people who argue "we just need 1 or 2 more pieces" like some in this thread...if he remains this player filling the 3b and SS holes will not be enough. In 2017 the money actually starts becoming a big deal. That's a lot to pay a guy if his track record is a below-replacement player. I'm more concerned about his production (and am 100% content on letting him play out the year with lot of at bats...at that point, you need to evaluate the full body of work and tools and think about what makes sense for next year...do you peg him as a starter or do you peg him as a quality back-up with upside or are you better off moving him for another piece in a change of scenery move). The $2M and $4.5M are in no way financially crippling and aren't even guaranteed so if club found other options you could cut release with minimal risk. I also don't see any scenario where Garcia is crippling to the franchise in the next 2 years to the contention plans. Maybe if you can only contend if he turns into Mike Trout, then sure, but as long as you plan accordingly, you aren't talking about having to put a guy on the bench whose making $15M/yr with a long term contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 02:20 PM) I'm more concerned about his production. The $2M and $4.5M are in no way financially crippling and aren't even guaranteed so if club found other options you could cut release with minimal risk. I also don't see any scenario where Garcia is crippling to the franchise in the next 2 years to the contention plans. Maybe if you can only contend if he turns into Mike Trout, then sure, but as long as you plan accordingly, you aren't talking about having to put a guy on the bench whose making $15M/yr with a long term contract. Money-wise the $4.5 million isn't crippling I agree, but it's enough that it's getting in the way. That'd also be an awful lot of money to pay him if he's just a backup. By 2017, we're talking what, $7-8 million, probably more with revenue growth? I'd have to imagine he's non-tendered if he's basically this same player at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 01:21 PM) Money-wise the $4.5 million isn't crippling I agree, but it's enough that it's getting in the way. By 2017, we're talking what, $7-8 million, probably more with revenue growth? I'd have to imagine he's non-tendered if he's basically this same player at that point. Isn't it about what they are paying Keppinger to play in a beer league? Avi has his warts, but there is potential, and they guy seems willing to give a big effort. He isn't much of a problem right now or the next couple of years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 11:21 AM) Money-wise the $4.5 million isn't crippling I agree, but it's enough that it's getting in the way. That'd also be an awful lot of money to pay him if he's just a backup. By 2017, we're talking what, $7-8 million, probably more with revenue growth? I'd have to imagine he's non-tendered if he's basically this same player at that point. I'm certainly not paying him 7-8M for his current production. If I had to pay him 4.5M next year and thought I still saw something, I'd probably do it, but 7-8M, no. Lets remember that $4M is what we paid Emil for. Again, that is not the type of money that should get in the way of contending / not-contending. It is the big time contracts that blow up in your face (as well as bad player development, etc) which get in your way. Beck's is the type of guy getting $2M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 07:18 PM) The 2m in 2016 is not a big deal, it's the "if he remains this same player he can 100% completely sabotage people's plans for how this team competes next year". If you're like me and think this franchise is a mess you don't care about that, you play him and see if maybe something turns out well. But, if you're like the people who argue "we just need 1 or 2 more pieces" like some in this thread...if he remains this player filling the 3b and SS holes will not be enough. In 2017 the money actually starts becoming a big deal. That's a lot to pay a guy if his track record is a below-replacement player. i am a little confuse here. are were talking about Avi.....right??? if not, i was totally off base on my post. many thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (LDF @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 03:13 PM) i am a little confuse here. are were talking about Avi.....right??? if not, i was totally off base on my post. many thanks. Sorry for unclear sentence structure. If Avi remains this player, then even if we fill in the 3b and SS holes, we will continue to have a major weakness in our lineup - Avi. Other people (not naming names) think we're able to compete next year if we just fill in a couple holes. I disagree and Avi is one of many reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 11:23 AM) Isn't it about what they are paying Keppinger to play in a beer league? Avi has his warts, but there is potential, and they guy seems willing to give a big effort. He isn't much of a problem right now or the next couple of years. I'd say the issue would be if we were pegging him to be our clean-up hitter 2 years from now (or even next year) and he is coming off of consistent negative production seasons (factoring in defense, etc) then you probably have an issue in the sense that you can't compete. That said, as long as you are fair in your evaluation of Avi, his actual salary isn't in any way shape or form going to put you back or prevent you from adding to the club. However, his success would be better cause it gives you a cost controlled guy and one less spot you have to address. As I've long said, I wouldn't bet against Avi's bat, I just don't like his bat in relation to his D, but I'd also point out that he's still extremely young and to be frank, given his tools, there is no reason he should be this bad of a defender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Who the f*** is Kalapse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 08:33 PM) Sorry for unclear sentence structure. If Avi remains this player, then even if we fill in the 3b and SS holes, we will continue to have a major weakness in our lineup - Avi. Other people (not naming names) think we're able to compete next year if we just fill in a couple holes. I disagree and Avi is one of many reasons. nah, it was my bad. but i will put my name there, i still think that IF they do it right, the sox may be able to do it. it all depends on this trading season and the continue growth of some players the sox have. however, and this is the big part and important part, how will the FO do in the trading rt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feeky Magee Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Avi by fWAR: 2013: -0.5 2014: -0.4 2015: -0.6 He is a historically bad defender, a bad baserunner and limited with the bat because of his awful pitch recognition skills. Prior to this season, his statistics at the same age looked much like Dayan Viciedo's. Now? They're actually worse, because the power isn't showing up. If you're still convinced there's a chance it does, stick him at DH. But everything to me suggests he is just not a valuable baseball player and I wouldn't be looking to have him on the roster in 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 You guys are too tough on Avi, IMO. Let him finish out the season; he'll get his at bats. Geez, the guy hit close to .370 in 3 trips to AAA. Bad injury last year. This is his first full year in MLB. I'm pulling for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 07:21 PM) Avi by fWAR: 2013: -0.5 2014: -0.4 2015: -0.6 He is a historically bad defender, a bad baserunner and limited with the bat because of his awful pitch recognition skills. Prior to this season, his statistics at the same age looked much like Dayan Viciedo's. Now? They're actually worse, because the power isn't showing up. If you're still convinced there's a chance it does, stick him at DH. But everything to me suggests he is just not a valuable baseball player and I wouldn't be looking to have him on the roster in 2016. All of those 'seasons' add up to him having played a total of one season so far. And he's still young. He's actually a few months younger than Trayce Thompson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jul 10, 2015 -> 07:16 PM) All of those 'seasons' add up to him having played a total of one season so far. And he's still young. He's actually a few months younger than Trayce Thompson. Aaargh but he is what he is what he is ! No Sox young hitter shall ever have a breakout season ye know nothin' landlubber ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzie for Manager Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I think Avi has tons of potential. I would rather see us get something for Laroche. Right now he is raping us of a lot of money. Hopefully he gets hot and we can either ride it out or flip him for some young prospect. If he continues like this his market value is next to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 QUOTE (oldsox @ Jul 11, 2015 -> 02:08 AM) You guys are too tough on Avi, IMO. Let him finish out the season; he'll get his at bats. Geez, the guy hit close to .370 in 3 trips to AAA. Bad injury last year. This is his first full year in MLB. I'm pulling for him. I agree. Doesn't baseball have a hitting problem right now? Avi seems like he has a chance to be a good hitter. Maybe not but baseball is full of lousy hitters right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 (edited) If you guys are so convinced that Avisail Garcia is Viciedo part deux(or worse) then there is no sense moving him because his value is only as a throw in anyway. Obviously all of the (armchair) GMs in baseball read fangraphs and know that Avi is one of the worst players, if not the worst player in MLB. So then he has zero value; an AAAA player. Might as well see what you have and ride it out like Viciedo in that case . Edited July 11, 2015 by Elgin Slim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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