Avisail Garcia is Fool's Gold

[Dunt]

I was somewhat surprised yesterday when I noticed that Avi's OPS has dropped to the very low 700's. I guess I shouldn't be though, as his recent free fall has been apparent to anybody paying attention. After digging a little deeper, I realized that I shouldn't be shocked at all. Across the last 3 seasons (all over 100 PA), Avisail has been the model of consistency. Not only has been a below replacement level player in all 3 seasons, but his wOBP, wRC+, K%, etc. have stay almost completely constant. He may be young and have plenty of room to grow still, but through 760 PA, it's likely we are seeing the player Avisail will always be.

 

Coming back to Earth a little bit, I was interested in seeing how he compared to some other White Sox. I immediately regretted this decision. When comparing Avi's numbers against fan favorite Dayan Viciedo, I came to a very sobering realization: Avisail is a younger version of Dayan Viciedo. Don't believe me? Here are their career numbers:

 

Avisail Garcia 760 PA 5.1 BB% 23.4 K% .132 ISO .272 AVG .316 OBP .403 SLG .316 wOBP 97 wRC+ -1.6 WAR

Dayan Viciedo 1798 PA 5.3 BB% 21.6% .170 ISO .254 AVG .298 OBP .424 SLG .315 wOBP 95 wRC+ -0.9 WAR

 

While he could make up ground over his next 1000 PA, Avi is largely the same player as Viciedo, maybe even slightly worse. His only positive UZR is in LF, a position in which the White Sox have never even tried him. I hope that the White Sox are smart enough to no longer be blinded by potential with Avi this offseason, there is nothing suggesting he is an ascending talent. It is either time to move him or utilize him in a different role.

[Eminor3rd]

I've literally been saying this for years now.

 

So, agreed.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[knightni]

He has yet to play a full season in the majors and is 24 years old.

 

I'm not willing to pass judgement on him quite yet.

 

 

[Balta1701]

It seems like just a couple weeks ago his fan boys were telling me that his .350 OBP was a bit low for what he had in his future. Funny how BABIP works. It would be great if he put it together and I am fan of him but from a scouting point of you I've never seen the love the Sox FO has.

I totally get the love. He's a physically gifted player. He has the physical tools to be a really good player. Taking those tools and turning them into an actual contributing ballplayer continues to be a much bigger step than this organization treats it as.

[kitekrazy]

He stopped being a Tiger and now he's a Sox.

 

[almagest]

I totally get the love. He's a physically gifted player. He has the physical tools to be a really good player. Taking those tools and turning them into an actual contributing ballplayer continues to be a much bigger step than this organization treats it as.

A step this organization has failed at repeatedly with other players. It boggles my mind that we go after raw players with tons of potential, when we can't develop any offensive talent - then again, even the polished players (like Beckham) fail here, so I don't know.

 

[greg775]

I wish Avi would develop consistent home run power. He's hit some bombs. Looks like he's the same as all the modern hitters. He's got to become more selective and when he gets a hitters count ... bam! Right now he's kind of a mess at the plate and a horror in the field.

[GreenSox]

Too soon to tell.

Doesn't even have a single full year.

He had a vicious slump, but he's coming out of it.

But he'll need an OPS of >.800 to be of any real value.

[shysocks]

I wish Avi would develop consistent home run power. He's hit some bombs. Looks like he's the same as all the modern hitters. He's got to become more selective and when he gets a hitters count ... bam! Right now he's kind of a mess at the plate and a horror in the field.

The bold cannot be overstated. By every indicator you can think of, he is rough out there.

[greg775]

This might sound very dumb, but I've come up with a solution I believe! Put Avi at third base the rest of the year. It really doesn't matter how many games we lose. If we could get him to be a decent third baseman, his offense is acceptable for third basemen nowadays. What do you say? Avi at third base?

[Dunt]

This might sound very dumb, but I've come up with a solution I believe! Put Avi at third base the rest of the year. It really doesn't matter how many games we lose. If we could get him to be a decent third baseman, his offense is acceptable for third basemen nowadays. What do you say? Avi at third base?

 

Mr. greg775, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[greg775]

Mr. greg775, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Dunt. There are reasons for Avi to third base.

1.) We have no third baseman. 2.) I don't want to see Gillaspie or Beckham bat ever again. 3.) Avi looks like a third baseman. He just does. 4.) Again, this team is so far out of first place it matters not what they do the rest of the year. This team blows. 5.) What if he's good?? It's not like he's an uncoordinated ox. He just can't play the outfield.

Why not try it for 30-60 games?? Thank u for your time.

[he gone.]

Avi at 3rd? Come on boys. I know we are awful. But what does that fix?

If we are going off on the crazy train, why not put Abreu at 3rd as Robin hinted at earlier. Supposedly he's played there before and hasn't been terrible in Cuba. IF, IF we are going insane, then we switch him to 3B, LaRoche to 1B, and DH Garcia or Melky. Move Shuck into the OF, maybe get some more time for Bonaficio. Not saying that makes us any better of a team -- just saying if we are going off the crazy rails, do something that makes a little more sense.

[NorthSideSox72]

Dunt. There are reasons for Avi to third base.

1.) We have no third baseman. 2.) I don't want to see Gillaspie or Beckham bat ever again. 3.) Avi looks like a third baseman. He just does. 4.) Again, this team is so far out of first place it matters not what they do the rest of the year. This team blows. 5.) What if he's good?? It's not like he's an uncoordinated ox. He just can't play the outfield.

Why not try it for 30-60 games?? Thank u for your time.

Maybe Conor Gillaspie can play catcher. He's always grumpy, like a catcher, he just is. His bat would be better there.

 

[knightni]

I hear that Shark can hit the ol' horsehide. Make him the DH.

[kitekrazy]

This might sound very dumb, but I've come up with a solution I believe! Put Avi at third base the rest of the year. It really doesn't matter how many games we lose. If we could get him to be a decent third baseman, his offense is acceptable for third basemen nowadays. What do you say? Avi at third base?

 

This is already practiced by the organization. In the minors you had people who aren't very good at catching a baseball to begin with like Viciedo and Fileds trying to play 3rd. I may be wrong but even when they got Swisher he never really played CF. There's a point where trying to fill a whole with a player based on need doesn't work.

 

[CanOfCorn]

Not willing to pass judgment yet, especially since he was raking until he hurt his knee.

[Balta1701]

Not willing to pass judgment yet, especially since he was raking until he hurt his knee.

The flaws in his game that are being exploited right now were all present earlier this year and in previous years, the season has just gone on long enough for things to be exploited fully.

[Vance Law]

I was somewhat surprised yesterday when I noticed that Avi's OPS has dropped to the very low 700's. I guess I shouldn't be though, as his recent free fall has been apparent to anybody paying attention. After digging a little deeper, I realized that I shouldn't be shocked at all. Across the last 3 seasons (all over 100 PA), Avisail has been the model of consistency. Not only has been a below replacement level player in all 3 seasons, but his wOBP, wRC+, K%, etc. have stay almost completely constant. He may be young and have plenty of room to grow still, but through 760 PA, it's likely we are seeing the player Avisail will always be.

 

Coming back to Earth a little bit, I was interested in seeing how he compared to some other White Sox. I immediately regretted this decision. When comparing Avi's numbers against fan favorite Dayan Viciedo, I came to a very sobering realization: Avisail is a younger version of Dayan Viciedo. Don't believe me? Here are their career numbers:

 

Avisail Garcia 760 PA 5.1 BB% 23.4 K% .132 ISO .272 AVG .316 OBP .403 SLG .316 wOBP 97 wRC+ -1.6 WAR

Dayan Viciedo 1798 PA 5.3 BB% 21.6% .170 ISO .254 AVG .298 OBP .424 SLG .315 wOBP 95 wRC+ -0.9 WAR

 

While he could make up ground over his next 1000 PA, Avi is largely the same player as Viciedo, maybe even slightly worse. His only positive UZR is in LF, a position in which the White Sox have never even tried him. I hope that the White Sox are smart enough to no longer be blinded by potential with Avi this offseason, there is nothing suggesting he is an ascending talent. It is either time to move him or utilize him in a different role.

 

He has played basically one full season with the Sox (via parts of 3 seasons). In 153 games he has hit .272/.317/.414/.731 with 19 HR 79 RBI 42XBH 10 SB (in 18 tries). Those numbers at the plate look fine to me for a 22 - 24 year old during a period of time where the average MLB OPS is about .708. Garcia's usefulness as a starting outfielder will hinge on whether or not he can take his hitting up a notch and his fielding up 2 or 3 notches. As he currently stands, he is not proven to be a building block for the future but his athleticism allows for the possibility he'll improve in the OF in a way that Viciedo was never going to and his approach at the plate makes him more hitter than just whiffing slugger. Tank was given 3 full seasons to try to improve. We'll see where Garcia's at after his first full one is done in September (yes, September, I'm saying it here, this team will not make the playoffs).

[Real]

He stopped being a Tiger and now he's a Sox.

 

yup, we can't groom young hitters, haven't been able to in decades

 

this is a fundamental problem in this organization and it's actually pathetic that it hasn't been fixed yet, embarrassing really

[Vance Law]

yup, we can't groom young hitters, haven't been able to in decades

 

this is a fundamental problem in this organization and it's actually pathetic that it hasn't been fixed yet, embarrassing really

 

He's hit better for the Sox than he did for the Tigers.

[Chicago White Sox]

He has played basically one full season with the Sox (via parts of 3 seasons). In 153 games he has hit .272/.317/.414/.731 with 19 HR 79 RBI 42XBH 10 SB (in 18 tries). Those numbers at the plate look fine to me for a 22 - 24 year old during a period of time where the average MLB OPS is about .708. Garcia's usefulness as a starting outfielder will hinge on whether or not he can take his hitting up a notch and his fielding up 2 or 3 notches. As he currently stands, he is not proven to be a building block for the future but his athleticism allows for the possibility he'll improve in the OF in a way that Viciedo was never going to and his approach at the plate makes him more hitter than just whiffing slugger. Tank was given 3 full seasons to try to improve. We'll see where Garcia's at after his first full one is done in September (yes, September, I'm saying it here, this team will not make the playoffs).

While I agree with everything you say here, I do think we need to find a way to get him out of RF. He's just too much of a defensive liability out there and I don't see him ever improving enough for that to change. Trading LaRoche would clear the DH spot and allow for Avi & Melky to rotate between LF & DH. Not ideal IMO but better over our current alignment if you can find a plus defender for RF (Thompson or trade/free agency).

[caulfield12]

This is already practiced by the organization. In the minors you had people who aren't very good at catching a baseball to begin with like Viciedo and Fileds trying to play 3rd. I may be wrong but even when they got Swisher he never really played CF. There's a point where trying to fill a whole with a player based on need doesn't work.

 

Mark Teahen at 2B, etc.

 

The Royals also briefly tried him there and in the OF...before Buddy Bell had his amazing revelation he could help the Sox at 3B.

[caulfield12]

He has played basically one full season with the Sox (via parts of 3 seasons). In 153 games he has hit .272/.317/.414/.731 with 19 HR 79 RBI 42XBH 10 SB (in 18 tries). Those numbers at the plate look fine to me for a 22 - 24 year old during a period of time where the average MLB OPS is about .708. Garcia's usefulness as a starting outfielder will hinge on whether or not he can take his hitting up a notch and his fielding up 2 or 3 notches. As he currently stands, he is not proven to be a building block for the future but his athleticism allows for the possibility he'll improve in the OF in a way that Viciedo was never going to and his approach at the plate makes him more hitter than just whiffing slugger. Tank was given 3 full seasons to try to improve. We'll see where Garcia's at after his first full one is done in September (yes, September, I'm saying it here, this team will not make the playoffs).

 

 

There's only one problem with this...

 

If he's leading the league or close to leading the league in OF assists, where do we expect his positive defensive improvement to come from?

 

There are a ton of balls dropping in front of him because he's not comfortable going back on the ball. The White Sox are literally forcing/benching Eaton to change his defensive positioning due to not playing shallow enough. Even when he's in doubles-prevent defense, he's taking the wrong routes and not cutting off balls before they get to the wall. Any ball up in the air is an adventure, with one exception...the balls down the foul line or where he has to run a long long distance to get to them and get can up a full head of steam going in a defined direction. But initial reads and first step/false steps, he and Eaton are practically brothers out there in that regard this year.

 

Say what you will about Dayan Viciedo, but his 2012 season at least showed he had the potential to put one full season together defensively, to the point where he wasn't hurting the team out there and came up with quite a few positive plays.

 

In the end, they will live with his OF defense, but he's got to be more selective at the plate....fewer K's, more walks, more XB hits and not so many singles.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

While I agree with everything you say here, I do think we need to find a way to get him out of RF. He's just too much of a defensive liability out there and I don't see him ever improving enough for that to change. Trading LaRoche would clear the DH spot and allow for Avi & Melky to rotate between LF & DH. Not ideal IMO but better over our current alignment if you can find a plus defender for RF (Thompson or trade/free agency).

 

Heyward

Edited June 29, 2015 by soxfan2014