KW: "Three year plan or window"

[Dunt]

Saw this MLBTR article over the weekend and was irked by this comment:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/whit...t-deadline.html

 

How do they not know if they are rebuilding or competing right now? To me, that shows an incredible lack of foresight by the FO. When did this 3 year plan even start? Shouldnt we be 3 years into our plan by now (2013, 2014, 2015)? Also, why are they capping this at 3 years when they have Sale, Abreu, Q, Rodon, Fulmer, and Eaton for atleast 4 more seasons? Doesnt seem like they have any sense of direction which is troublesome as a fan. They came into this season claiming they would be competing for a postseason spot despite entering the season with black holes at C, 2B, and 3B...not to mention the complete regression by a myriad of other positions.

[southsider2k5]

If you go back to the source article, instead of just reading the snippet on MLBTR, it states exactly that.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2...liams/29738873/

 

Yet, no matter what happens with Samardzija, who's being strongly pursued by the Toronto Blue Jays, Williams insists there won't be a teardown. This is Year 1 of their 3-year plan, Williams says, and he and GM Rick Hahn refuse to believe that their massive winter overhaul was a bust.

 

"It's important that we not lose sight of what our organization goal was,'' Williams said, "and that was to give us the best three-year window. And we're not going to abandon that completely with only three months to play.

 

"I think (Hahn's) done one hell of a job. Everyone wants to put the blame on (manager) Robin (Ventura), too, but all he can do is put the players in position to succeed. They're the ones who have to look in the mirror and execute.

 

"If we do anything, it will be consistent with trying to maximize this three-year plan or window that we set out originally.''

[Eminor3rd]

This is consistent with what I've been saying all along. We need to realize that the league is changing -- the polarity of competing vs. rebuilding is becoming a thing of the past. Yes, the White Sox were trying to put a winner on the field this year, but it was NOT an all-in, do or die plan.

 

I know, Balta, you are concerned about the financials, and I think what you bring up makes sense if we assume a static payroll and a new big ticket pitcher -- but it IS possible for the payroll to increase, and if the FO is stating that they are on pace for a three year plan, it's safe to assume that they have the resources they need.

[Chisoxfn]

This is consistent with what I've been saying all along. We need to realize that the league is changing -- the polarity of competing vs. rebuilding is becoming a thing of the past. Yes, the White Sox were trying to put a winner on the field this year, but it was NOT an all-in, do or die plan.

 

I know, Balta, you are concerned about the financials, and I think what you bring up makes sense if we assume a static payroll and a new big ticket pitcher -- but it IS possible for the payroll to increase, and if the FO is stating that they are on pace for a three year plan, it's safe to assume that they have the resources they need.

Agree completely with your post, As I pointed out about a week ago, adjusted for standard MLB inflation, Sox relative payroll from 5 years ago would be pushing $150M in today's dollars. New tv deals, etc. yes, gate attendance is down and the Sox TV deal isn't near as sweet as anyone who has recently renegotiated, but they have room in the coffers and have some cost controlled "elite" talent.

 

[shipps]

This is consistent with what I've been saying all along. We need to realize that the league is changing -- the polarity of competing vs. rebuilding is becoming a thing of the past. Yes, the White Sox were trying to put a winner on the field this year, but it was NOT an all-in, do or die plan.

 

I know, Balta, you are concerned about the financials, and I think what you bring up makes sense if we assume a static payroll and a new big ticket pitcher -- but it IS possible for the payroll to increase, and if the FO is stating that they are on pace for a three year plan, it's safe to assume that they have the resources they need.

 

I think I had to be reminded of this. This was actually a big reason why a lot of us were as excited about the moves made when they were. It was because it didn't risk their future or making future moves if it doesn't work out. HMMMM we shall see.

[Dunt]

If you go back to the source article, instead of just reading the snippet on MLBTR, it states exactly that.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2...liams/29738873/

 

Your quote is almost entirely what they quoted in the MLBTR piece and it still doesn't answer many of the questions I proposed. Why is there a 3 year plan starting this year when theyve been downright awful for 2 seasons now? Why is it only 3 years when their core is locked up for more? Why on Earth are they still holding out believing they can compete this year?

[southsider2k5]

Your quote is almost entirely what they quoted in the MLBTR piece and it still doesn't answer many of the questions I proposed. Why is there a 3 year plan starting this year when theyve been downright awful for 2 seasons now? Why is it only 3 years when their core is locked up for more? Why on Earth are they still holding out believing they can compete this year?

 

Those questions will never be answered until after the fact. For whatever reason they believe their 3 year window with this core started this year.

[Dick Allen]

Your quote is almost entirely what they quoted in the MLBTR piece and it still doesn't answer many of the questions I proposed. Why is there a 3 year plan starting this year when theyve been downright awful for 2 seasons now? Why is it only 3 years when their core is locked up for more? Why on Earth are they still holding out believing they can compete this year?

It is pretty hard to plan a baseball team for 10 years from now. In 2 or 3 years, they probably felt they would have a better handle on their prospects. I wouldn't take this 3 year plan as their window for trying to win. I think they probably thought it was their window before they really started producing prospects who could contribute. Not counting Rodon and now Fulmer, most of their guys are a couple of years away from being players you could count on, if not more.

[LDF]

Your quote is almost entirely what they quoted in the MLBTR piece and it still doesn't answer many of the questions I proposed. Why is there a 3 year plan starting this year when theyve been downright awful for 2 seasons now? Why is it only 3 years when their core is locked up for more? Why on Earth are they still holding out believing they can compete this year?

 

i am in total agreement.

 

yeah, i remember a snippet of the FO was stating a 3-yr plan. but the players assembled and with the pitching staff, i really thought the team would be competitive this season. even with the hole in cat and 3b. i really thought it would have been different if they acquired another pitcher.

 

either way, i see the sox org doing a fluff like excuses to try to explain this lousy season.

[Dunt]

It is pretty hard to plan a baseball team for 10 years from now. In 2 or 3 years, they probably felt they would have a better handle on their prospects. I wouldn't take this 3 year plan as their window for trying to win. I think they probably thought it was their window before they really started producing prospects who could contribute. Not counting Rodon and now Fulmer, most of their guys are a couple of years away from being players you could count on, if not more.

 

But the Vice President stated it's the window in both those articles getting back to my point that he seems indecisive if it's a rebuild or a compete now situation. If they felt that their prospects were still a couple years away from making them a competitive organization, then it was really stupid to burn 2 picks this year on guys that probably wont be here when they are competing. What was the point of rushing Rodon up to the majors if he didnt have decent control or a third pitch?

[southsider2k5]

But the Vice President stated it's the window in both those articles getting back to my point that he seems indecisive if it's a rebuild or a compete now situation. If they felt that their prospects were still a couple years away from making them a competitive organization, then it was really stupid to burn 2 picks this year on guys that probably wont be here when they are competing. What was the point of rushing Rodon up to the majors if he didnt have decent control or a third pitch?

 

I think you are taking the term 3 year plan way too literally. 3 year plan doesn't mean they are only making plans for the next three years. Otherwise they wouldn't have spent a dime in Latin America.

 

They think they can win something with the core group they have now, but they aren't going to completely scorch the earth to try to compete either.

[Chisoxfn]

I think you are taking the term 3 year plan way too literally. 3 year plan doesn't mean they are only making plans for the next three years. Otherwise they wouldn't have spent a dime in Latin America.

 

They think they can win something with the core group they have now, but they aren't going to completely scorch the earth to try to compete either.

I also this is more an initial 3 year plan to contend with the current group. Doesn't mean their aren't longer term plans. Often times companies have 1 year, 3 year, and 5 year plans and in this case I think the Sox and most sports franchises use a plan that is more "shorter" term, especially given the turnover, etc that can exist. I think their is a larger plan (but it is really hard to project out 5 years in baseball...given crapshoot of prospects, etc).

[Dick Allen]

But the Vice President stated it's the window in both those articles getting back to my point that he seems indecisive if it's a rebuild or a compete now situation. If they felt that their prospects were still a couple years away from making them a competitive organization, then it was really stupid to burn 2 picks this year on guys that probably wont be here when they are competing. What was the point of rushing Rodon up to the majors if he didnt have decent control or a third pitch?

3 year window with these players. Melky, LaRoche, Alexei, even before the season started, you had to figure in 3 years, all these guys would be ex-White Sox. The 3 year probably only included Micah and Rodon as contributing prospects. Maybe Sanchez. They know they have to start producing their own talent. I think the 3 year window was a term to buy them time to do just that. We will see, but it is apparent they aren't blowing the entire thing up.

[Chisoxfn]

3 year window with these players. Melky, LaRoche, Alexei, even before the season started, you had to figure in 3 years, all these guys would be ex-White Sox. The 3 year probably only included Micah and Rodon as contributing prospects. Maybe Sanchez. They know they have to start producing their own talent. I think the 3 year window was a term to buy them time to do just that. We will see, but it is apparent they aren't blowing the entire thing up.

They need to make improvements and focus on defense and getting some exciting young positional players, but we also can't ignore what has the makings for a very strong, borderline elite (albeit this is all based upon projections and rankings vs. actual productivity from some of the young guys), cost-controlled rotation.

 

Melky, who some excluded was done (and to which I have said consistently, it is was and is way too early to make those sort of conclusions), is also posting a .907 OPS over the past 23 games.

[southsider2k5]

They need to make improvements and focus on defense and getting some exciting young positional players, but we also can't ignore what has the makings for a very strong, borderline elite (albeit this is all based upon projections and rankings vs. actual productivity from some of the young guys), cost-controlled rotation.

 

Melky, who some excluded was done (and to which I have said consistently, it is was and is way too early to make those sort of conclusions), is also posting a .907 OPS over the past 23 games.

 

We are seeing some signs of life recently. Before it seemed like no one could hit. Now we are to a stage where we are getting hits, but aren't getting BIG hits. It is getting there.

[Chisoxfn]

We are seeing some signs of life recently. Before it seemed like no one could hit. Now we are to a stage where we are getting hits, but aren't getting BIG hits. It is getting there.

Eaton has made similar strides. Problem is, the defense is a longer term trend that has to be fixed, but it can be fixed. We do have major holes in the infield (and as I point out consistently, also defensive holes in the outfield). I wouldn't even be surprised if we dangled Avi in a trade package (never know, a team might look at a bat and think he is a fit). problem is with the team not contending this year, unless you get something with promise, you are probably better served seeing if the switch flips and Garcia just starts crushing it (tools are their to be a very good offensive player...just don't know that it will happen, but I don't have any problem being patient with the rest of this season.

[southsider2k5]

Eaton has made similar strides. Problem is, the defense is a longer term trend that has to be fixed, but it can be fixed. We do have major holes in the infield (and as I point out consistently, also defensive holes in the outfield). I wouldn't even be surprised if we dangled Avi in a trade package (never know, a team might look at a bat and think he is a fit). problem is with the team not contending this year, unless you get something with promise, you are probably better served seeing if the switch flips and Garcia just starts crushing it (tools are their to be a very good offensive player...just don't know that it will happen, but I don't have any problem being patient with the rest of this season.

 

The defense has gotten much better with the switch from Johnson to Sanchez, and with Gordo playing 3B a lot more. Alexei also has seemed to be coming around recently in the field. His DWAR, which had been -1.5 not too long ago, are already back to -0.2.

[southsider2k5]

I will also say on the completely other side of the coin, if Kenny/Rick/Jerry have decided to do a tear down, they wouldn't tell us in advance. They would lie their asses off publicly until it was done, or at least started.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Spiegel was wondering about this very topic on his show today. They had Merkin on and he said that the media guys always reference KW/Hahn's 3 year big board. THey have it in the office with targets and hypothetical targets for a 3 year period. KW has referenced in the past having guys on there that never make it or never get acquired.

[Balta1701]

Agree completely with your post, As I pointed out about a week ago, adjusted for standard MLB inflation, Sox relative payroll from 5 years ago would be pushing $150M in today's dollars. New tv deals, etc. yes, gate attendance is down and the Sox TV deal isn't near as sweet as anyone who has recently renegotiated, but they have room in the coffers and have some cost controlled "elite" talent.

To remind again...they also significantly slashed ticket prices during that time span.

[Balta1701]

Melky, who some excluded was done (and to which I have said consistently, it is was and is way too early to make those sort of conclusions), is also posting a .907 OPS over the past 23 games.

Every other time this season someone has been proud of a player turning it around (Beckham, the whole bullpen, Danks) a few weeks later we were back to noting how terrible they had been.

[southsider2k5]

Every other time this season someone has been proud of a player turning it around (Beckham, the whole bullpen, Danks) a few weeks later we were back to noting how terrible they had been.

QUICK KNOCK ON WOOD!

[LDF]

3 year window with these players. Melky, LaRoche, Alexei, even before the season started, you had to figure in 3 years, all these guys would be ex-White Sox. The 3 year probably only included Micah and Rodon as contributing prospects. Maybe Sanchez. They know they have to start producing their own talent. I think the 3 year window was a term to buy them time to do just that. We will see, but it is apparent they aren't blowing the entire thing up.

 

i honestly think that the sox young prospects will be ready to step in. however with the present outfielder prospect, (Hawkins) may not be an option. so the sox will have a void in the outfield as a viable option, same thing for a 3b.

[Chisoxfn]

To remind again...they also significantly slashed ticket prices during that time span.

The gate is minor to all the revenues coming from tv deals. Beginning in 2014, each team got an extra $25M per year alone from national tv deal(Roughly $52M per year). And according to fangraphs, the Sox get $450K for every game broadcast on their network (plus they have an equity ownership). While not all games are on comcast, I'm going to just be lazy and assume they did (and any difference for the other games would probably be a rounding figure of +/- $5M) but that would equate to $72.9M on TV revenue for local deal (I will say this seems high but nothing compared to deals like the Angels signed (thought relatively relevant example given 2nd largest team in a major market, albeit they have better draw, etc).

 

That means with just tv deal you are talking $125M / yr. According to a link from statistica (no idea how valid), Sox took in $43M in gate revenue last year (by far the lowest in a long time) and that gives you revenues of $168M (excluding radio rights, which I presume are small and random advertising + merchandising). The Sox also, according to forbes, had operating income of ~32M (I say this with a grain of salt cause they are totally guessing here) but bottom line, you take out your G&A expenses (which probably get largely off-set from the merchandise / advertising / etc) and you could easily justify a net even profit base with a $150M payroll (I'm leaving in $18M for minor league and international + buffer for G&A not covered by those smaller costs).

 

Oh and lets not forget the valuation of the club continues to go up. Sox can do what they want, but even with horrifically low gate sales, they can support a payroll much larger then today's (based upon my very rough math and by now means do I say this is exact).

 

 

[Thad Bosley]

This is consistent with what I've been saying all along. We need to realize that the league is changing -- the polarity of competing vs. rebuilding is becoming a thing of the past. Yes, the White Sox were trying to put a winner on the field this year, but it was NOT an all-in, do or die plan.

 

I know, Balta, you are concerned about the financials, and I think what you bring up makes sense if we assume a static payroll and a new big ticket pitcher -- but it IS possible for the payroll to increase, and if the FO is stating that they are on pace for a three year plan, it's safe to assume that they have the resources they need.

I don't think that's true at all. Williams says this is Year 1 of a 3 year plan to maximize the window of opportunity with this current core. I think this past offseason absolutely resembled the team trying to do just that: signing an elite closer, trading for an ace starting pitcher, signing a slugger to bat 4th in the lineup - if those aren't "all in" type moves to try and win with this core, I don't know what is. In fact, both Williams and Hahn practically said as much after the Cabrera signing when they were gushing over Reinsdorf's so-called "competitive spirit" after he approved going over budget to sign the guy. They were as "all in" as they could get.

 

I think when they say three year plan, they actually do mean "do or die" in each year. What else could it mean if you are trying to "maximize" the window of opportunity with this core? The problem is that for the first half of Year 1, it's pretty much been all "die", unfortunately. They are going to have to work hard to find a whole bunch of better players with whom to supplement this core if they hope to win during this window of opportunity.