StrangeSox Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Almost a decade in the making, a deal to lift economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for limiting nuclear activities and increasing inspections and access was announced this morning. Iran Agrees to Halt Nuclear Program in Historic Deal With World Powers U.S. led negotiations between Iran and six world powers have concluded with a final, historic agreement that will temporarily cut off Iran's pathway to making a nuclear bomb in exchange for the relief of crippling economic sanctions levied by the U.S. and United Nations. Iran has agreed to significantly reduce its stockpile of enriched nuclear material and cease further enrichment, effectively extending the time it would take Iran to build a bomb from a few months to one year, over to 10 years. Upon verification that Iran is keeping its commitments to dismantle much of its nuclear program, major economic sanctions will be lifted, effectively releasing more than $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets. That undetermined point in time is now known as "implementation day." Negotiators also agreed that a long-standing arms embargo on Iran would be lifted over time, one of the major sticking points in the talks and a decision that will be seen as a major concession by the United States. The nuclear accord states that five years from now Iran will be able to buy and sell conventional arms on the international market, and in eight years it will be allowed to do the same with ballistic missiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Able to obtain ballistic missiles in 8 years. Only a matter of time before they do something stupid with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 10:06 AM) Able to obtain ballistic missiles in 8 years. Only a matter of time before they do something stupid with them. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 10:06 AM) Able to obtain ballistic missiles in 8 years. Only a matter of time before they do something stupid with them. That's the questionable part that stood out to me, but the Iranian state isn't exactly ISIS. They seem to be pretty rational actors who are interested in their own self-preservation, and even run-by-a-crazy-guy DPRK (North Korea) only saber-rattles now and then with theirs. The bigger worry IMO would be them funneling more arms to the various groups that they currently let do their dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I mean the good thing is there's the snap back provision, so if they don't live up to their end of the bargain sanctions can start right back up. My concern is in year 12 they have stockpiled missiles and then decide to find a nuke to attach to one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 "Find a nuke" isn't exactly an easy proposition (they've been "18 months away from the bomb" for a couple of decades now), and then they'd still have to be completely suicidal in order to actually do anything with it. They have their own motivations and interests that don't align with the West and really do hate Israel, but I don't think nuking Israel is a realistic threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Iran has never followed any agreement before, this time will no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 12:04 PM) Iran has never followed any agreement before, this time will no different. At least this time we'll have the IAEA actively in the country (and seriously, the toys they have to work with are really impressive. Like making scientists jealous impressive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Well nothing gets a country to be warlike quite like economic problems. Maybe with a little prosperity they'll become better world citizens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 US still won't have any diplomatic ties with the Ayatollah, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 12:00 PM) At least this time we'll have the IAEA actively in the country (and seriously, the toys they have to work with are really impressive. Like making scientists jealous impressive). Deal says Iran gets a 24 day notice for any inspections that is a joke. Edited July 15, 2015 by Soxfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 You can't exactly hide a bunch of enriched uranium or the enrichment facilities themselves though. And I'm sure we'll park a satellite over any facilities to watch for suspicious activity before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 07:48 PM) You can't exactly hide a bunch of enriched uranium or the enrichment facilities themselves though. And I'm sure we'll park a satellite over any facilities to watch for suspicious activity before and after. I agree. Question is, what will the response be? ......with this admin I think I know that answer....anyone who thinks sanctions will be snapped back is snorting the same cocaine our President did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 President trump will be in office soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Jul 14, 2015 -> 09:15 PM) I agree. Question is, what will the response be? ......with this admin I think I know that answer....anyone who thinks sanctions will be snapped back is snorting the same cocaine our President did.... Ask Vladimir Putin whether the POTUS is willing to impose economic sanctions. Even better, ask his cronies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 01:04 AM) Ask Vladimir Putin whether the POTUS is willing to impose economic sanctions. Even better, ask his cronies. Better yet, ask Putin if he will snap back sanctions on IRAN......I think we know the answer......This was about Narcissus and nothing else....Ask the families of the Americans held in IRAN how they feel about this "deal". And don't tell me that had nothing to do with nuclear negotiations as this joke of an administration is want to do. The UN arms embargo had nothing to do with nuclear negotiations but yet we somehow caved on that too...I'm just glad we know who to blame for IRAN having nukes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 In April: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz on Iran nuke inspections: “We expect to have anywhere, anytime access.” April 20 ‘15 http://t.co/3ESiZkZdi5 — Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) June 28, 2015 Ben @rhodes44 told the Israeli people today on TV that framework agreement w/ Iran has snap inspections. “Anywhere, any time”. Quite a claim Today: “We never sought anytime/anywhere inspections” – Pres Obama Dpty National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes tells me. — Erin Burnett (@ErinBurnett) July 14, 2015 Shocking that the most transparent admin lied to us. oh wait i know, it was a fluid negotiation and that was the price for a deal with the devil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 06:36 AM) Better yet, ask Putin if he will snap back sanctions on IRAN......I think we know the answer......This was about Narcissus and nothing else....Ask the families of the Americans held in IRAN how they feel about this "deal". And don't tell me that had nothing to do with nuclear negotiations as this joke of an administration is want to do. The UN arms embargo had nothing to do with nuclear negotiations but yet we somehow caved on that too...I'm just glad we know who to blame for IRAN having nukes.... The sanctions snap back if just one of the five believe Iran has cheated the agreement. They may decide not to impose the sanctions, but they could do that now just the same. I agree though that we should probably have families of hostages to inform our foreign policy. Seems like a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 09:18 AM) The sanctions snap back if just one of the five believe Iran has cheated the agreement. They may decide not to impose the sanctions, but they could do that now just the same. I agree though that we should probably have families of hostages to inform our foreign policy. Seems like a no brainer. Obama is only in office for 18 months anyway. Edit this deal strengthens Iran economically and with conventional arms down the road, but I don't see how this does anything but weaken them with respect to nuclear weapons. They're removing a majority of their refining capacity, they're changing it the core of their reactor, and they are eliminating almost their entire existing stockpile. Is it the perfect deal with every condition the west would want? Of course not, but Iran has no reason to go along with something like that. Edited July 15, 2015 by StrangeSox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Iranians’ View of the Nuclear Deal: Optimistic, With Significant Caveats On what this deal means for Iranian citizens. Good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 09:18 AM) The sanctions snap back if just one of the five believe Iran has cheated the agreement. They may decide not to impose the sanctions, but they could do that now just the same. I agree though that we should probably have families of hostages to inform our foreign policy. Seems like a no brainer. Who said we should? Keep smoking the Hopium....You guys are killing me with the snapback bulls***. Its not like flipping a lightswitch... Edited July 15, 2015 by Cknolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 12:36 PM) Who said we should? Keep smoking the Hopium....You guys are killing me with the snapback bulls***. Its not like flipping a lightswitch... How is this any different than now? Do you seriously think Russia and China would keep their end of the sanctions forever, with no plan here? There is an actual an actual international agreement here of ways to proceed. Yes, China and Russia could decide not to snap back, and go against that agreement. But they could do so today, and if they did, Iran would be much closer to nuclear capabilities than they would be in 2 years of Iran has cheated, as we would have already removed much of their technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 01:43 PM) How is this any different than now? Do you seriously think Russia and China would keep their end of the sanctions forever, with no plan here? There is an actual an actual international agreement here of ways to proceed. Yes, China and Russia could decide not to snap back, and go against that agreement. But they could do so today, and if they did, Iran would be much closer to nuclear capabilities than they would be in 2 years of Iran has cheated, as we would have already removed much of their technology. The sanctions regime was already right on the verge of breaking down and frankly we should all compliment Hillary on having put together such a strong program in the first place even though many of the countries involved lost money overall. If the U.S. had what Europe judged as a good deal on the table, with detailed verification including of uranium production, and backed away, the sanctions regime would crumble and it wouldn't be coming back, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 "I would give it an A": Why nuclear experts love the Iran deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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