Iranian Nuclear Deal

[greg775]

Iran has never followed any agreement before, this time will no different.

True.

It's obvious how the world as we know it someday is going to end. Finally get to the point we destroy ourselves with nukes combined with decimation of climate/environment.

[Cknolls]

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4214...-iran-agreement

 

 

 

Most transparent Admin Evahhhh.........

[Jenksismyhero]

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4214...-iran-agreement

 

 

 

Most transparent Admin Evahhhh.........

 

Well that's some BS.

[StrangeSox]

Max Fisher with a pretty thorough takedown of former Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren's criticism of the deal in Politico.

[Jake]

I just enjoy hearing the talking points.

 

"This deal will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons."

 

"This deal ensures that Iran will have nuclear weapons."

 

We refuse to publicly agree on the main aspect of the deal. If you believe everyone is speaking honestly, the sides have come to the opposite conclusion about it.

[bmags]

I just enjoy hearing the talking points.

 

"This deal will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons."

 

"This deal ensures that Iran will have nuclear weapons."

 

We refuse to publicly agree on the main aspect of the deal. If you believe everyone is speaking honestly, the sides have come to the opposite conclusion about it.

 

I think it will be very difficult to stop a country that is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons from developing them over a long period of time. I would certainly bet that in my lifetime, Iran acquires a nuke.

 

I would also bet that this deal absolutely slows that progress more than the status quo.

[Cknolls]

Well its a good sign that Iran will comply with the agreement, after all the Quds Force General just travelled to Russia against currently imposed UN Sanctions...

 

 

 

[EvilMonkey]

Well its a good sign that Iran will comply with the agreement, after all the Quds Force General just travelled to Russia against currently imposed UN Sanctions...

Do you want war? Shut up and let them do what they want!!! Treaties? They don't need no stinkin' treaties!!! That's a deal with the Great Satan. Death to America!!!!!

[Chisoxfn]

Such a disaster.

[Balta1701]

Are you guys willing to invade and occupy Iran for a 10+ year period?

[EvilMonkey]

Are you guys willing to invade and occupy Iran for a 10+ year period?

Why is that the only other option? How about doing some actual negotiations. Obama got pants. Kerry got pants. Iran is laughing at them right in their faces and they can't even see it. How about some actual inspections? How about someone independent getting samples? How about no 30 day waiting period. What the hell do we get out of this except a piece of paper that says something that won't happen?

[Balta1701]

Why is that the only other option? How about doing some actual negotiations. Obama got pants. Kerry got pants. Iran is laughing at them right in their faces and they can't even see it. How about some actual inspections? How about someone independent getting samples? How about no 30 day waiting period. What the hell do we get out of this except a piece of paper that says something that won't happen?

How is the IAEA not independent?

 

The US DOE has tested whether you can fully scrub a room in 24 days and actually remove all traces of highly enriched uranium. You can't. That stuff is really hard to get rid of because it's extremely easy to detect a single particle of it. And that's on top of the ability to look for "large movements of heavy equipment" in the area.

 

And if you don't think this deal is strict enough, I want to know what you'd do to increase pressure on Iran to make that happen...keeping in mind that no other country would go along with you because they consider this deal sufficient and the U.S. does not trade much with Iran.

 

Basically...the U.S. was pushing for the strongest deal possible, to the point where they almost lost everyone else holding sanctions in the process. If the U.S. rejects this deal, the sanctions regime will crumble and Iran will know there is a high likelihood the U.S. is going to invade them in the near future. The U.S. will then have to race to launch attacks and an invasion before Iran can actually complete a crash course to build a weapon to defend themselves from the upcoming U.S. invasion. It's just about that simple. It's this deal or war with a country 2.5 times the population and 3.5 times the area of Iraq. Your choice.

[Cknolls]

How is the IAEA not independent?

 

The US DOE has tested whether you can fully scrub a room in 24 days and actually remove all traces of highly enriched uranium. You can't. That stuff is really hard to get rid of because it's extremely easy to detect a single particle of it. And that's on top of the ability to look for "large movements of heavy equipment" in the area.

 

And if you don't think this deal is strict enough, I want to know what you'd do to increase pressure on Iran to make that happen...keeping in mind that no other country would go along with you because they consider this deal sufficient and the U.S. does not trade much with Iran.

 

Basically...the U.S. was pushing for the strongest deal possible, to the point where they almost lost everyone else holding sanctions in the process. If the U.S. rejects this deal, the sanctions regime will crumble and Iran will know there is a high likelihood the U.S. is going to invade them in the near future. The U.S. will then have to race to launch attacks and an invasion before Iran can actually complete a crash course to build a weapon to defend themselves from the upcoming U.S. invasion. It's just about that simple. It's this deal or war with a country 2.5 times the population and 3.5 times the area of Iraq. Your choice.

 

Even if it came to military action, I do not see the U.S. Invading Iran. Blowing the hell out of the suspected sites? Yes. Invasion? No. Still do not have an answer as to why we agreed to the ballistic missile and weapons give up. And still no answer how they will enforce this agreement if they cannot even enforce the existing sanctions on one man. the UN is useless. We need to think long and hard about the amount of money we send there.

[bmags]

Why is that the only other option? How about doing some actual negotiations. Obama got pants. Kerry got pants. Iran is laughing at them right in their faces and they can't even see it. How about some actual inspections? How about someone independent getting samples? How about no 30 day waiting period. What the hell do we get out of this except a piece of paper that says something that won't happen?

K, so nothing about the access to inspect every aspect of supply, the dismantling of current cores or amount of uranium, just US got pantsed and I have no alternatives but I'm certain we could have gotten a better deal but also we shouldn't negotiate with terrorist regimes and the years of 02-08 show how effective this was and all of this is very coherent,

[CrimsonWeltall]

K, so nothing about the access to inspect every aspect of supply, the dismantling of current cores or amount of uranium, just US got pantsed and I have no alternatives but I'm certain we could have gotten a better deal but also we shouldn't negotiate with terrorist regimes and the years of 02-08 show how effective this was and all of this is very coherent,

 

OBAMA BAD. LOVES MUSLIMS. GIVES THEM NUKES.

[L. Ron Paultard]

How is the IAEA not independent?

 

The US DOE has tested whether you can fully scrub a room in 24 days and actually remove all traces of highly enriched uranium. You can't. That stuff is really hard to get rid of because it's extremely easy to detect a single particle of it. And that's on top of the ability to look for "large movements of heavy equipment" in the area.

 

And if you don't think this deal is strict enough, I want to know what you'd do to increase pressure on Iran to make that happen...keeping in mind that no other country would go along with you because they consider this deal sufficient and the U.S. does not trade much with Iran.

 

Basically...the U.S. was pushing for the strongest deal possible, to the point where they almost lost everyone else holding sanctions in the process. If the U.S. rejects this deal, the sanctions regime will crumble and Iran will know there is a high likelihood the U.S. is going to invade them in the near future. The U.S. will then have to race to launch attacks and an invasion before Iran can actually complete a crash course to build a weapon to defend themselves from the upcoming U.S. invasion. It's just about that simple. It's this deal or war with a country 2.5 times the population and 3.5 times the area of Iraq. Your choice.

 

Abhor politics haha, but just couldn't just pass this one by.

 

Balta, can I ask you a question: does it bother you on any level that literally EVERY single administration talking points you are parroting above.... is absolutely, 100% demonstrably wrong/false???

 

 

From the 24-days notice nonsense (it's actually closer 90 days w. the appeal process... plus severely restricted access in the first place renders the whole thing a giant joke)

the false "negotiations capitulation or war" binary choice

the need for 10 year land invasion

ignorance of the Apocalyptic Twelver goals

etc, etc, etc

 

I don't know it's bizarre. A veritable tidal wave or orgy of stupid when it comes to this issue. Granted among my friends I am only moderately liberal so maybe I am not meant to "get" the collective visionary genius that is Alinsky-Soros-Valerie Jarrett axis...

 

Seriously, Balta are you for real re: sanctions regime and supposed total lack of leverage on the part of the US? Really? Are you forgetting who is the freaking SUPER-POWER here?

 

Hint: "Hey Brussels, so you desperately want that free-trade agreemen finally donet, huh? Permanent recession is a b**** I hear. Trillions at stake in the long-term, right? While we're on the subject, you really like NATO protecting your ass from Putin, esp. after the Ukraine thing? So maybe let's revisit our Iran deal thingie, mmmmkay? Anywhere, anytime inspections, total removal of uranium from Iranian soil, dismantle Fordow, Arak...no ICBM work.... the works. Mull it over"

 

Rinse and repeat with TTP and our Asian friends. While at it, let China know that one more stock market snafu to the tune of trillions like that, and that place may not be so attractive for foreign investment. GDP slows below 5-6% and here comes the Tiananman Spring in earnest. Maybe a credit rating hit or 2, just to get the message across.

 

Putin may not like it? He is kinda over a barrel and up a tree with the E. Ukraine mess + disastrous oil price trends. If ever there was a time to make him, um, "amenable" to a more strict Iranian deal, it's now.

 

Then again, with genius like Wendy Sherman of North Korean fame... in charge of negotiations, I am surprised New York City hasn't been officially made a part of the new Persian Empire.

 

Point is, there are a lot of tools, big and small, for a unmatched superpower to put the Mullahs back in their place and eventually facilitate the Persian uprising which is the only real way to ensure the end of their program. The humiliating surrender in Vienna, sadly isn't one of them.

 

YKMV.

 

[Balta1701]

Even if it came to military action, I do not see the U.S. Invading Iran. Blowing the hell out of the suspected sites? Yes. Invasion? No. Still do not have an answer as to why we agreed to the ballistic missile and weapons give up. And still no answer how they will enforce this agreement if they cannot even enforce the existing sanctions on one man. the UN is useless. We need to think long and hard about the amount of money we send there.

What would be the Iranian response to bombing of their suspected weapons sites other than a much more determined, intensive program to complete construction of a bomb and how would you verify the amount of damage done to them? You can't. You need an invasion, it becomes the only way.

 

Furthermore, are you prepared to deal with the other consequences of that, such as losing your main ally in fighting Isis in central Iraq?

[Balta1701]

Abhor politics haha, but just couldn't just pass this one by.

 

Balta, can I ask you a question: does it bother you on any level that literally EVERY single administration talking points you are parroting above.... is absolutely, 100% demonstrably wrong/false???

 

 

From the 24-days notice nonsense (it's actually closer 90 days w. the appeal process... plus severely restricted access in the first place renders the whole thing a giant joke)

the false "negotiations capitulation or war" binary choice

the need for 10 year land invasion

ignorance of the Apocalyptic Twelver goals

etc, etc, etc

 

I don't know it's bizarre. A veritable tidal wave or orgy of stupid when it comes to this issue. Granted among my friends I am only moderately liberal so maybe I am not meant to "get" the collective visionary genius that is Alinsky-Soros-Valerie Jarrett axis...

 

Seriously, Balta are you for real re: sanctions regime and supposed total lack of leverage on the part of the US? Really? Are you forgetting who is the freaking SUPER-POWER here?

 

Hint: "Hey Brussels, so you desperately want that free-trade agreemen finally donet, huh? Permanent recession is a b**** I hear. Trillions at stake in the long-term, right? While we're on the subject, you really like NATO protecting your ass from Putin, esp. after the Ukraine thing? So maybe let's revisit our Iran deal thingie, mmmmkay? Anywhere, anytime inspections, total removal of uranium from Iranian soil, dismantle Fordow, Arak...no ICBM work.... the works. Mull it over"

 

Rinse and repeat with TTP and our Asian friends. While at it, let China know that one more stock market snafu to the tune of trillions like that, and that place may not be so attractive for foreign investment. GDP slows below 5-6% and here comes the Tiananman Spring in earnest. Maybe a credit rating hit or 2, just to get the message across.

 

Putin may not like it? He is kinda over a barrel and up a tree with the E. Ukraine mess + disastrous oil price trends. If ever there was a time to make him, um, "amenable" to a more strict Iranian deal, it's now.

 

Then again, with genius like Wendy Sherman of North Korean fame... in charge of negotiations, I am surprised New York City hasn't been officially made a part of the new Persian Empire.

 

Point is, there are a lot of tools, big and small, for a unmatched superpower to put the Mullahs back in their place and eventually facilitate the Persian uprising which is the only real way to ensure the end of their program. The humiliating surrender in Vienna, sadly isn't one of them.

 

YKMV.

You realize that when we did things like sign trade agreements with China and granted them permanent "Most favored nation" status, the ability to place sanctions on China basically was given up?

 

Do you really think it's worth it to Americans to lose their apple computers and iphones to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear armed country?

 

Do you really think the American business world would put up with losing tens of billions of dollars in imports in order to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear armed country? The answer to that is probably found in the trade agreements we've signed with them.

 

And one more to highlight.

the need for 10 year land invasion

Yup, I've never seen any case in the Middle East where I've said "We're going to be stuck in a decade long disaster" and someone else said oh that's false it'll be much easier.

[Jake]

29 US scientists from the fields of nuclear physics and arms control praise Iran agreement, emphasizing its "innovative" and "stringent" nature. Signatories include 5 Nobel Laureates, the head of the AAAS, former director of Los Alamos weapons lab, the designer of the world's first H-bomb, and almost all of whom have had government Q clearances in the past.

 

The body of the letter praises the technical features of the Iran accord and offers tacit rebuttals to recent criticisms on such issues as verification and provisions for investigating what specialists see as evidence of Iran’s past research on nuclear arms.

 

It also focuses on whether Iran could use the accord as diplomatic cover to pursue nuclear weapons in secret.

 

The deal’s plan for resolving disputes, the letter says, greatly mitigates “concerns about clandestine activities.” It hails the 24-day cap on Iranian delays to site investigations as “unprecedented,” adding that the agreement “will allow effective challenge inspection for the suspected activities of greatest concern.”

 

It also welcomes as without precedent the deal’s explicit banning of research on nuclear weapons “rather than only their manufacture,” as established in the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, the top arms-control agreement of the nuclear age.

 

The letter notes criticism that the Iran accord, after 10 years, will let Tehran potentially develop nuclear arms without constraint. “In contrast,” it says, “we find that the deal includes important long-term verification procedures that last until 2040, and others that last indefinitely.”

[L. Ron Paultard]

You realize that when we did things like sign trade agreements with China and granted them permanent "Most favored nation" status, the ability to place sanctions on China basically was given up?

 

Do you really think it's worth it to Americans to lose their apple computers and iphones to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear armed country?

 

Do you really think the American business world would put up with losing tens of billions of dollars in imports in order to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear armed country? The answer to that is probably found in the trade agreements we've signed with them.

 

And one more to highlight.

 

Yup, I've never seen any case in the Middle East where I've said "We're going to be stuck in a decade long disaster" and someone else said oh that's false it'll be much easier.

 

Wow you guys just leap from one (intellectually disingenuous) TP to the next with ease of a jet-powered Bolshoi ballerina; it's quite a sight to behold. I'll be gone by Monday tho will try to answer your questions b4 then

 

Who said anything about totally sanctioning China, btw? Deep down neither China nor Russia really want Mullahs with a huge nuclear and missile stockpile, either, it's just that for political reason Beijing doesn't want to hand the US an easy win in Vienna negotiations..... Just gently "nudge" them a certain way and let the natural historic and economic course take place. Incidentally, the Communist rule is not the future, everyone knows it... lest they think slightly cheaper Iranian oil is some panacea, a strong US admin should delicately, um, disabuse the Chicoms of that notion.

 

Of course Obama is the antithesis of a strong leader in his very bone marrow, so good luck with any kind credible posturing vis-a-vis China or Teheran or anyone else. We wouldn't want to be "dictating" to others matters vital to our national security and strategic interests, would we? Using superpower levers -- however soft -- would be "unfair", afterall.

 

(Likewise, China can hack all our state, military, corporate secrets-- cue a strong-worded State Department letter of protest filed once in a great while in response, wow that oughta show them who's boss! Lest we not digress lol....)

 

Really, Iraq? Granted it's before my time, but the comparison fails on every level. Should even bother listing? Actually, both Iraq wars were spectacularly bloodless from military history standpoint. Yes, the subsequent occupation was less than ideal but that's neither here nor there re: bombing Iranian installations. Our intelligence penetration into Iran is orders of magnitude better, too in 2015...... Btw, even Israeli PM Ariel Sharon is well known to privately told Bush that Iran, rather than Iraq was the real danger. Multiply by 10 today. Even if you view Iraq as kind of a disaster -- I do not -- it's pure logical fallacy to effectively say "well, it didn't go as smoothly as we wanted, now let's just roll over for the Twelver Mullahs, yay world peace!" (the same Twelvers who can't even stop chanting "Death to Big Satan" long enough for the ink to dry on the one-sided Vienna capitulation papers....)

 

You are vastly exaggerating American business interest in Iran... all while badly under-estimating the multi-TRILLION dollar hit, a truly STRATEGIC humiliation that the deal to make Ayatollahs the regional superpower in the most energy-rich & powder-keg unstable region on earth... represents. It's not just the direct long-term costs of such mind-boggling American defeat.

 

It's the optics & symbolism of the whole thing. A giant win for the BRICS. Even the Gulf Arabs are, ahem, making other plans as we speak. If you think Saudis were pissed when we let Morsi take reigns in Egypt, that is nothing compared to the profound sense of betrayal and American impotence that is reverberating throughout the Sunni world. Those guys are desperate. And so are the Israelis. The war is coming, and nuclear dimensions only make it far more terrifying a prospect.

 

In fact, Balta, I got another news for you: the war you so want to avoid is already here. For quite some time now.

 

also I see your knowledge of the nuclear cycle & weaponization/minituarization is suspect. It's not just a matter of Iran "going underground to more intensely pursuing a weapon". It's not so simple. They almost went bankrupt for decades and still can't even master the Little Boy technology with all the cadre of foreign nuke experts from Russia, China, Pakistan, North Korea + many local engineers.

 

cumulatively UNSC resolutions were having their intended effect, too. Circa 2013-2014 Ayatollahs were on their knees. Another year or two and the dam would have burst, I promise you. You think the populace ability to withstand hardship is limitless? It only may seem that way. Even the crazy Mullahs, IRGC bosses finally understood that as rial was crashing and embargoes tightening. Another hint: What do French Revolution, Russian Revolution, Arab Spring, etc all have in common?

 

 

And now the brilliant brain-trust in the White House has given Ayatollahs a cool TRILLION dollars life-line (150 bill almost right away; then way more over 10-15 year term).

 

Oh yah, such great anti-ISIS fighters the Mullahs are. Pardon me while I wipe away my tears of joyful gratitude. LOL, you're not familiar with the two-faced, triple-dealing nature of middle east/Islam are you, Balta? Little known secret of Teheran backing Al-Qaeda for years, same as "secular" Assad supplying/transiting them at will when it suited his needs.... But oh sure, now that the already hugely well-armed Hezbollah networks sprawled across 5 continents will get Billions with a 'B' cash infusion.... the global war on terror will surely be won. That is, right after the Ayatollahs, the various Basij, Quds Force and IRGC generals all magically "moderate". Why? Just because, just ask the White House. Yay-cakes!

 

The 24-day thing? Of course it's a joke in every sense. But it's not only the uranium residue that needed to be inspected; computer sim and missile work, other illegal activities don't exactly leave half-life traces even if inspectors were to be allowed in. Which, again, they won't be so its moot.

 

And on and on and so forth, we can do this all day long. It's truly an unprecedented disaster of a "deal". Even Chamberlain circa 1938 looks like Genghis Khan in comparison to the American/EU negotiators. Just surreal, hahaha

 

And all for what? For some Obama "legacy", whatever the f*** that even means? I know they got their Mahdi, but it looks like you people have your own teflon Messiah at 1600 Penn Ave.

 

 

 

edit: bad at spellery? Unpossible!

Edited August 8, 2015 by L. Ron Paultard

[StrangeSox]

I'm pretty skeptical that we'd start a trade war with China over Iran sanctions.

[L. Ron Paultard]

I'm pretty skeptical that we'd start a trade war with China over Iran sanctions.

 

What trade war?

 

[StrangeSox]

What trade war?

You were advocating explicit economic harm against China in order to get them to continue sanctions on Iran.

[StrangeSox]

Moderately liberal, talks about alinski and "messiah at the white house"

 

Color me skeptical

 

Edit the heavy downplaying of Iraq is pretty solid, too.

Edited August 8, 2015 by StrangeSox

[L. Ron Paultard]

You were advocating explicit economic harm against China in order to get them to continue sanctions on Iran.

 

LOL, I was what?

 

OK, nuance and internets don't mix I get that. Might want to re-read.

 

China was a tertiary/tangential point anyway since Balta was so worried about the sanctions regime I mentioned China sorta in passing. But yeah, China has a huge vulnerability, and all US has to do is to *remind* them, however indirectly, of that. Hell Communist rule will be formally over before 2020 anyway, that's a promise.

 

Likewise, TPP is critical to other Asian nations, you're talking such sums of money involved as to render Iran's (future) lucrative contracts for individual firms, seem like peanuts in comparison. Again, that's the essence of superpower leverage

 

Politics is the "art of the possible", if nothing else.

 

 

Funny thing is, as recently as late 2013 even Obama admin knew that. But somehow the script changes since then, and now it's suddenly "we can't go to nookewlahr war with China/Russia/Iran/North Korea over Israel" style hysteria over MSM.