ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 (edited) I know 3000 K's is a really hard thing for a pitcher to accomplish in this day and age, but do you guys think that Sale could do it? He's at just about 900 through his age 26 season. He'll probably be closer to 1000 by the time that the season ends. I think the only current players that are locks to get 3000 K's are Felix Hernandez and Kershaw. I figured that this would be a nice discussion on an off day with no Sox baseball. Edited July 15, 2015 by Mike F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The math would indicate he'll easily get 3000 K's if he makes 300 starts over the next 10 years. If he stays healthy and pitches to 38-39, he'll get over 3500 for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 10:31 AM) The math would indicate he'll easily get 3000 K's if he makes 300 starts over the next 10 years. If he stays healthy and pitches to 38-39, he'll get over 3500 for sure. I guess it really depends how long he wants to pitch. The sky is the limit statistics wise for him as long as he stays healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I am having a hard time squinting hard enough to see Chris Sale getting to the 3000ish IP that he would need to do this. That is 15 years as a 200 IP per year starter. I know he hasn't had issues yet, but he is at just under 800 IP now, which means he still needs 11 more years of 200 IP per year. Yeah, I don't see that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 10:46 AM) I am having a hard time squinting hard enough to see Chris Sale getting to the 3000ish IP that he would need to do this. That is 15 years as a 200 IP per year starter. I know he hasn't had issues yet, but he is at just under 800 IP now, which means he still needs 11 more years of 200 IP per year. Yeah, I don't see that happening. If he continues at this pace, he'll only need 2700 or 2800 IP to get to 3000. But I get your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condor13 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 (edited) I see him having a very small chance but still a chance at getting to 4000 Ks but he has to keep up his current pace Edited July 15, 2015 by Condor13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Mike F. @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 10:54 AM) If he continues at this pace, he'll only need 2700 or 2800 IP to get to 3000. But I get your point. Even if he pitches that long, you have to assume that at some point, his stuff will diminish. Even at 3000IP for 3000K, that assumes a K per inning, which I feel is probably high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Condor13 @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 10:55 AM) I see him having a very small chance but still a chance at getting to 4000 Ks but he has to keep up his current pace I don't see any pitcher ever pitching long enough to get to 4000 k's again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Condor13 @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 10:55 AM) I see him having a very small chance but still a chance at getting to 4000 Ks but he has to keep up his current pace 4000 K's is going to be really hard for him to get to unless he pitches into his 40's IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Zelig Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Mike F. @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 12:15 PM) 4000 K's is going to be really hard for him to get to unless he pitches into his 40's IMO. Well yeah, considering that only 4 people have ever done it, I'd say it's really hard for anybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jul 15, 2015 -> 01:27 PM) Well yeah, considering that only 4 people have ever done it, I'd say it's really hard for anybody. Exactly haha. But Sale has the talent to do it. I just don't think he'll pitch long enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFinn Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 According to the Bill James "Favorite Toy" app at ESPN.com: 35%. The app figures Sale for 2690 K's based on 2012-2013-2014 stats. The percentage will go up at the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Read thread title and thought it was about Adam Dunn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFinn Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Just playing with the numbers in the Bill James favorite toy app: If Sale strikes out 100 more batters this year, his chance to strike out 3000 batters jumps to 44%. Sale doesn't have a track record to strike out 4000 batters . . . yet. If he does strike out 100 more batters this year, he will have a 13% chance to strike out 4000 batters. Just for giggles: King Felix has a 34% chance at striking out 4000 and a 6% chance at striking out 5000! Regarding the single-season strikeout rate record, Chris Sale's current season strikeout rate, 11.84 K/9 IP ranks #10 all-time behind 1999 Pedro Martinez, 1998 Kerry Wood, 2013 Yu Darvish, and six seasons worth of Randy Johnson. The 2015 version of Clayton Kershaw ranks 12th all-time—he's at 11.70 K/9 IP. Chris Archer, this year, at 10.87, ranks #26 all-time. A trio of Cleveland's finest, Danny Salazar (10.58—34th all-time), Corey Kluber (10.39—47th all-time), and Carlos Carrasco (10.14—64th all-time) are also having all-time great seasons. There are a few others: Max Scherzer (10.23—59th), James Shields (10.11—68th), and Francisco Liriano (9.81—90th). Randy Johnson's best is from 2001, 13.41 K /9 IP. Chris Sale isn't unique; baseball seems to be experiencing a significant uptick in strikeouts these days. He's just the best. And he pitches for the White Sox. How cool is that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 QUOTE (BigFinn @ Jul 16, 2015 -> 10:23 AM) Just playing with the numbers in the Bill James favorite toy app: If Sale strikes out 100 more batters this year, his chance to strike out 3000 batters jumps to 44%. Sale doesn't have a track record to strike out 4000 batters . . . yet. If he does strike out 100 more batters this year, he will have a 13% chance to strike out 4000 batters. Just for giggles: King Felix has a 34% chance at striking out 4000 and a 6% chance at striking out 5000! Regarding the single-season strikeout rate record, Chris Sale's current season strikeout rate, 11.84 K/9 IP ranks #10 all-time behind 1999 Pedro Martinez, 1998 Kerry Wood, 2013 Yu Darvish, and six seasons worth of Randy Johnson. The 2015 version of Clayton Kershaw ranks 12th all-time—he's at 11.70 K/9 IP. Chris Archer, this year, at 10.87, ranks #26 all-time. A trio of Cleveland's finest, Danny Salazar (10.58—34th all-time), Corey Kluber (10.39—47th all-time), and Carlos Carrasco (10.14—64th all-time) are also having all-time great seasons. There are a few others: Max Scherzer (10.23—59th), James Shields (10.11—68th), and Francisco Liriano (9.81—90th). Randy Johnson's best is from 2001, 13.41 K /9 IP. Chris Sale isn't unique; baseball seems to be experiencing a significant uptick in strikeouts these days. He's just the best. And he pitches for the White Sox. How cool is that. Very insightful post. Thank you very much for taking all the time to look up that information. I appreciate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 QUOTE (BigFinn @ Jul 16, 2015 -> 10:23 AM) Chris Sale isn't unique; baseball seems to be experiencing a significant uptick in strikeouts these days. He's just the best. And he pitches for the White Sox. How cool is that. Just to add some more fun historical context - the qualified starter with the 30th highest K% this year, Mike Fiers (22.7%), would have been 5th overall in 1965. The 30th highest in 1965 - Ken Johnson, 15.9% - would be 84th this year, just ahead of John Danks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Gonna go with yes, but not in a Sox uni. Not saying they trade him now but when he is able to hit open market, they won't pay what it'll take to keep him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 16, 2015 -> 10:43 AM) Gonna go with yes, but not in a Sox uni. Not saying they trade him now but when he is able to hit open market, they won't pay what it'll take to keep him. Which would suck. I want him to stay a White Sock for life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 16, 2015 -> 11:43 AM) Gonna go with yes, but not in a Sox uni. Not saying they trade him now but when he is able to hit open market, they won't pay what it'll take to keep him. I've been wondering what would happen if the White Sox started going up to Sale every offseason saying they'll add an extra $30 million to his deal if he agrees to give up another year of FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I'd rather discuss if he can get to 300 k's this year. A much more fun topic with immediate reward. I'll create a poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jul 16, 2015 -> 01:34 PM) I'd rather discuss if he can get to 300 k's this year. A much more fun topic with immediate reward. I'll create a poll. Not a chance. He'd have to throw 230-240 innings this year, which won't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Let's bump this up. He's currently at 984 for his career, but we can expect 30-50 more this year, which would put him in the 1,020 range through his age 26 season. Do you think he'll get 3000 for his career? I say yes as long as he doesn't get hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 Sale is officially over 1,000 K's in his career, as he now has 1,004 total after last nights start. He is now 34.67% of the way there to 3,000 K's for his career, and he's not even 27 years old yet. Pretty impressive IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 is sale going to pitch again .... this season?? did he competed what many wanted him to.... the 3,000 k club?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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