Team strengths and weaknesses

[Jake]

Reading a lot of the trade chatter and speculation, I began wondering if we tend to approach these things properly. While in any individual situation you can't really choose the position you get back, since the trade partner may not have a player in your top need, it's still worth knowing and targeting certain spots. And while we're just people on the internet, it might be worth thinking about so we know how to react to any deals (whether that's now or in the offseason).

 

Below is our fWAR and MLB rank by fWAR, by position, for each year since 2012. Positions/years shaded in green indicate that the primary player in that position is different than the year before it on the chart (so nothing is marked for 2012). 2015 numbers are as of the A-S break and this afternoon (I think either yesterday or today, all the defensive stats were updated on FG).

 

 

So...we're dreadful when it comes to position players this year. Not included is the fact that we are dead last not just in fWAR, but each component of it -> hitting, defense, and baserunning. We are above the league average absolutely nowhere, not even 1B.

 

Relative to league average and in absolute terms, we're strongest at 1B and catcher. 1B is no surprise, but it is worth letting the catcher part of it soak in. Tyler Flowers is competent. Geo Soto is competent. Are they good? No. But they are not players who will lead you to being the worst in the league at their position (worth noting that much of the terrible 2013 fWAR at catcher can be attributed to Phegley, who got nearly half the ABs). This year's slight uptick has more to do with Soto than it does Flowers, since Soto is replacing Nieto who was also not very good.

 

This sort of analysis doesn't tell you everything, obviously. It doesn't tell you who is awaiting in the minors or what the potential of each player is. The shaded boxes are helpful a little bit here. Take SS, for example. Same guy every year and always good production until...this year. So what do we make of Alexei? Is this a permanent dropoff or do we expect the Alexei of last year to return?

 

2B has been terrible, but you have Micah in the minors who may have improved and Carlos Sanchez....well, he can't play any worse than he has and his bat has picked up ever so very slightly in the past week or two. Eaton has played better in center by quite a bit lately, so we can say that the April he had is still holding him down. You probably don't have to get a CF. Melky's play has also picked up and he has a track record on other teams that suggests he may not be holding us down much longer. They also have contract concerns to consider.

 

Right field stands out to me as a problem, even though we have a new player out there. Avi's defense has been very bad and it makes me worry that he will have to hit an unreasonable amount to sustain value there. It's not hard to argue that he could take a step up to something like a 115 wRC+ bat, but that would only make him a replacement level player without any change to his defense. Maybe he could be an answer at...DH, where we haven't done well, especially against left-handed pitchers.

 

My takeaway in general is that we should absolutely take any non-first baseman infielder in a trade and not care about the particular position. SS? Great. 2B? Great. 3B? Perfect. Indeed, 3B is the position I think we'll have the toughest time filling from within given all the players' poor track records there and Davidson not looking viable at this point in AAA. Micah is there for 2B and Carlos Sanchez's defensive upside and hitting track record give some hope for getting an adequate player at 2B. Alexei's history gives hope for solid production there, at least for the rest of the year. With that said, I don't think many of us would say no to a good player at 2B or SS if offered in a trade in July. Buyer or seller, it doesn't matter IMO.

 

I think you could also add just about any position in the outfield. A RF would be simple in that you start finding Avi at-bats at DH and LF along with more bench time. Melky would also see more time on the pine along with maybe some DH appearances (but probably not unless LaRoche goes). You could add a CF and play Eaton more in LF and maybe RF. And a LF wouldn't be ideal but we could make room if it's a good player we're talking about.

 

And I started off talking about catcher, so of course we'd take one. A prospect certainly and I wouldn't walk away from a deal if I had to cut one of Flowers or Soto to make room for a better MLB option. With that said, the marginal gain compared to adding a 1 WAR catcher vs. a 1 WAR 2B/SS/3B is significant.

 

What does Soxtalk see as both short-term and longer-term needs? You can argue there are a whole hell of a lot or maybe you feel comfortable at half or more of the spots.

 

 

[OmarComing25]

Was CF just a really strong position across the league last year? How were we 22nd in baseball with a 3.0 WAR there?

[bmags]

It seems to me that a pivot needs to happen in philosophy where player defense needs to take a higher priority than offense. Our entire organization appears to have recognize we have a strength in pitching scouting and development, and atrocious position player development in every aspect.

 

We put many resources in groundball pitchers with a bad defensive infield.

 

We have claimed to put a lot of emphasis to find power in a power-lean league. We did not find it.

 

Our offense cannot get much worse, rather than try and find offense, I say lets go for maximizing this pitching.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Very good analysis and it leads to what I having been saying about the possible trade deadline acquisitions and catcher for a while. Right now you take the best available packages you can get and that catcher ,being so thin at the MLB level , should not be a focus of team need.

 

I remember advocating trying to get Iglesias when he was available and also Brock Holt , Anthony Rendon and Juan Lagares when he ( Rendon) was still in the minors . Of course plenty on here shot down my arguments saying guys like Iglesias and Lagares don't hit enough and that Holt might be a one year wonder. Now Holt and Iglesias have become all stars and Rendon came in 5th in MVP voting a year ago. Lagares is generally regarded as one of the best fielding CF's in the game.

 

I have always advocated defense because I knew the Sox strength was always pitching . I'm not saying the Sox could've got any of those players especially Rendon who was a top prospect. What I am saying is defense should always be a huge consideration when you know your strength is pitching. I'd rather get a weak hitting young player with a good glove and hope he can develop his hitting like Iglesias and Lagares than get a guy who supposedly can hit but not play good D . Defense plays at all levels whereas a good hitter in the minors may not hit in the majors and then he is completely useless since his D also sucks.