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Crazy Trade Deadline Predictions


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QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:09 PM)
And one that would never happen

 

Absolutely. I think I may be in the minority, but Seager + 2 b prospects + a c prospect I think is fair value for sale. You will never match true value for trading a superstar, it's like trading in a brand new car 4 months later, you have to accept some level of discounted services.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:03 PM)
But that's really the thing...what has the year really done to change anything? What key contributors have really failed this year in regards to the grand scheme of things?

1. Avisail Garcia. Top of the list and not even close. We need him to be an above average player and he's one of the worst couple OF in baseball.

2. Jose Abreu. Massively underperforming last year and looking like a major long-term "injury plagued" guy. He's still a solid player but we were counting on him to be an MVP candidate and you can't tell me you have confidence he'll get back there as of now.

3. Alexei Ramirez. We've gone from having an overperforming SS to a massively underperforming SS.

4. Eaton. He's still a decent player but last year he was on pace to be an All Star, 5 fWAR guy. Now he's on pace for ~2-2.5. That's an ok player but that is a huge dropoff from anything that lets us project this as a competitive team.

5. Flowers/Gillaspie. These guys looked like they could be close to tolerable big leaguers, now they look like replacement level (flowers) or below replacement level.

6. No longer have Marcus Semien, dramatically decreasing infield depth. Do you count on Sanchez and Saladino as starters? I'm at best uncertain. Anderson getting a shot in 2017 is fine but I expect rookies to struggle in the bigs, so even if he gets the spot I'm expecting him to contribute little in 2017 at best.

7. Money tied up in underperforming, poor defense left fielder who may not age well.

 

By 2017 yes we'll have 2 major contracts cleared up, but we have no one to replace the open 1b slot that LaRoche will vacate so we'll be right back to plugging that hole by overpaying on the FA market.

 

If you're like me and you don't think Anderson can step in and contribute right away in 2017 because he's a rookie, then we have a ton of below average positions and virtually no "strongly above average" positions in our lineup. We might be able to create one out of Micah, but there's no strong depth behind him if he needs time to adapt to the league too.

 

By 2017, we'll have money to replace some of those positions, but not all. The pitchers and Abreu will be getting gradually more expensive. We might be able to fill some holes through free agency, but the lesson I'm learning from this year is that trying to fill multiple holes and remake your team through FA is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

To compete in 2017 I think we need a whole lot of stuff to go right that is unlikely to go right. To me, we dumped all our backup plans this year, so when things imploded, we were left with having no choice but to "put up" with a lot of those issues.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 02:15 PM)
1. Avisail Garcia. Top of the list and not even close. We need him to be an above average player and he's one of the worst couple OF in baseball.

2. Jose Abreu. Massively underperforming last year and looking like a major long-term "injury plagued" guy. He's still a solid player but we were counting on him to be an MVP candidate and you can't tell me you have confidence he'll get back there as of now.

3. Alexei Ramirez. We've gone from having an overperforming SS to a massively underperforming SS.

4. Eaton. He's still a decent player but last year he was on pace to be an All Star, 5 fWAR guy. Now he's on pace for ~2-2.5. That's an ok player but that is a huge dropoff from anything that lets us project this as a competitive team.

5. Flowers/Gillaspie. These guys looked like they could be close to tolerable big leaguers, now they look like replacement level (flowers) or below replacement level.

6. No longer have Marcus Semien, dramatically decreasing infield depth. Do you count on Sanchez and Saladino as starters? I'm at best uncertain. Anderson getting a shot in 2017 is fine but I expect rookies to struggle in the bigs, so even if he gets the spot I'm expecting him to contribute little in 2017 at best.

7. Money tied up in underperforming, poor defense left fielder who may not age well.

 

By 2017 yes we'll have 2 major contracts cleared up, but we have no one to replace the open 1b slot that LaRoche will vacate so we'll be right back to plugging that hole by overpaying on the FA market.

 

If you're like me and you don't think Anderson can step in and contribute right away in 2017 because he's a rookie, then we have a ton of below average positions and virtually no "strongly above average" positions in our lineup. We might be able to create one out of Micah, but there's no strong depth behind him if he needs time to adapt to the league too.

Wow...that was quick work, Balta. Did you have that keyed up somewhere just waiting to bust it out? :)

 

1) I guess for me personally, I never believed in Avi. His struggles this year don't really impact my outlook for the future, most likely because I never considered him part of it.

2) Jose is a concern, but he's still putting together the long hit streaks. Yes, his power numbers are down, and that is a concern. However, I have not seen enough of that to say that last year isn't repeatable. For me, I won't worry about Jose unless this continues next season.

3) Alexei's performance this year, to me, is not particularly surprising. Well, that is a lie. To say he would be THIS bad is a surprise. But ultimately, his performance this year doesn't impact my outlook much considering I never saw him as an impact piece for the future. Honestly, if he was playing to career averages this year, would it really matter one way or the other?

4) Eaton I will agree with. I am actually more concerned with him than anyone else on this list, primarily because he's the one guy I had penciled in as part of the future. He kind of slots into the same bucket as Jose for me...I need to see more than this year to know if he is the player from last year or the player from the first 90 games of this year.

5) Flowers/Gillaspie - this one I don't know how anyone was counting on these guys for much of anything.

6) Semien was expendable, mostly because of the infield depth. I'm counting on Micah and Tim more than Semien, although admittedly, I would prefer to have 3 bullets instead of 2. However, perhaps the Shark return will offset that.

7) I didn't care for the Melky signing much, and I can concede that one could bite us in the rear. However, given the relative cost of the pitching staff moving forward, I don't think Mekly's contract should hurt us as badly as one might expect. Would I prefer to not have it on the books? Yes. Do I believe it will hamstring us much? Not really.

 

I guess I've been down on the team since the 2012 collapse and perhaps my expectations were not as high as others. I do like what I see recently, but perhaps we're just coming from different perspectives from the outset.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:08 PM)
Every thread is basically about Samardjiza/Q/Sale but I can never tell who we are talking about.

 

Yep. There is the soxnet threads, crazy predictions threads, samardzija threads all about those three. LOL its all Jason's fault!

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I just have an extremely hard time backing the trading of Chris Sale no matter what the return. I dont care if we got 4 of the top prospects. I would still be hard pressed to be happy about the trade. It may be beneficial to this team but Sale is just a great representative for my favorite team in a whole lot of ways.

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QUOTE (shipps @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:13 PM)
I just have an extremely hard time backing the trading of Chris Sale no matter what the return. I dont care if we got 4 of the top prospects. I would still be hard pressed to be happy about the trade. It may be beneficial to this team but Sale is just a great representative for my favorite team in a whole lot of ways.

 

Agreed. I want him to retire a White Sox player.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 03:15 PM)
Agreed. I want him to retire a White Sox player.

Do you want to win, or do you want Chris to forever be a White Sox?

 

I hope not, but those might be mutually exclusive for the next several years.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:17 PM)
He won't. By the time he is a free agent, he can command 30+ mill annually easy if he keeps this up.

 

30 mill is what he'd command this offseason, in 2018? Whew, can't imagine.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:15 PM)
Agreed. I want him to retire a White Sox player.

Funny you say that....

 

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 24m24 minutes ago

Sale: "I would love to be on a winning team, but I just want it to be here. I don’t want to go anywhere else....

 

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 24m24 minutes ago

More Sale: "... I don’t want to be in a different uniform just because they are good now."

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 05:30 PM)
Funny you say that....

 

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 24m24 minutes ago

Sale: "I would love to be on a winning team, but I just want it to be here. I don’t want to go anywhere else....

 

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 24m24 minutes ago

More Sale: "... I don’t want to be in a different uniform just because they are good now."

 

He's kind of in a position where he needs to say that. Doesn't have any say in the matter.

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QUOTE (shipps @ Jul 24, 2015 -> 04:11 PM)
Yep. There is the soxnet threads, crazy predictions threads, samardzija threads all about those three. LOL its all Jason's fault!

Just look at the packages talked about and ya should be able to cipher through them.

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