SoxNet: What can the White Sox get for Jeff Samardzija?

[Quin]

Written by our own Brian Bilek - What should the Sox try to get for Shark?

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/soxnet/2015/07/s...eff-samardzija/

[Balta1701]

There is an argument that the White Sox should sign Jeff Samardzija long term, but why right now? His services will be just as available after the World Series. Instead, let him pitch in a pennant race, reap youthful talent off of his remaining two months, and see what he is demanding in November.

More so than that, his performance this season suggests he would be a terrible choice for a long-term, high-dollar investment, particularly for a team where it's at best questionable whether they'd be able to field a decent team around him in the first year.

[LDF]

i just got this warp thought..... can you imagine shark being traded to KC ......

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

He gotsta go.

 

Cool article, Brian

[Dunt]

I am not a fan of signing Samardzija long term either but if the Sox want to sign him long term, they should still trade him...now.

 

Agreed, I hope something is done before his start tomorrow, but I doubt that's going to happen.

[cabiness42]

The Sox get a comp pick if Jeff walks, and they shouldn't accept a return that doesn't contain a player with at least as much upside as that comp pick would have, and I'm 100% fine with not trading him at all if that kind of offer doesn't come.

[Balta1701]

The Sox get a comp pick if Jeff walks, and they shouldn't accept a return that doesn't contain a player with at least as much upside as that comp pick would have, and I'm 100% fine with not trading him at all if that kind of offer doesn't come.

Worth noting that this costs the White Sox an additional $4 million-ish as well (price of a reliever, maybe ~price of a decent backup catcher next year, etc.)

[Chisoxfn]

Worth noting that this costs the White Sox an additional $4 million-ish as well (price of a reliever, maybe ~price of a decent backup catcher next year, etc.)

Where do you get the $4M number from? I'm kind of confused. Comp picks don't get $4M. Or are you talking about paying him for the remainder of this year?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I am not a fan of signing Samardzija long term either but if the Sox want to sign him long term, they should still trade him...now.

 

Everything is going as I predicted it would. Despite insider "knowledge " that the Sox would sign Jeff , it was a long shot to start with. I said trade him after his next 2 starts , the 2nd one being the KC series. I said do it before guys like Price become available and more players period become available , which has happened. I said the KC series was enough to know whether the Sox would be contenders while others pointed to the 1st 3 series after the AS break.

 

Now I have a sickening feeling that the return the Sox get for him will be less than we all hope for. I truly hope I am wrong this time and by that I mean ,if for some crazy reason they keep him, I will have lost what little faith I have left in team management to make the correct decision.

[bighurt4life]

Where do you get the $4M number from? I'm kind of confused. Comp picks don't get $4M. Or are you talking about paying him for the remainder of this year?

That is the cost of his remaining salary for this season

[Balta1701]

Where do you get the $4M number from? I'm kind of confused. Comp picks don't get $4M. Or are you talking about paying him for the remainder of this year?

That. $10 million for the season, prorated for 2/3 of the year, give or take the extra 10 days, winds up somewhere around $4 mil. It's not huge, but it's not worth ignoring either.

[chitownsportsfan]

The Sox get a comp pick if Jeff walks, and they shouldn't accept a return that doesn't contain a player with at least as much upside as that comp pick would have, and I'm 100% fine with not trading him at all if that kind of offer doesn't come.

 

Any "B" prospect in high A ball or higher is better than the comp pick. It's a low bar to clear. If they can't at least get that for him than they f***ed up.

[ewokpelts]

Worth noting that this costs the White Sox an additional $4 million-ish as well (price of a reliever, maybe ~price of a decent backup catcher next year, etc.)

The 2015 budget has already been passed.

 

That said, who replaces him in the rotation? The sox already have FOUR GOD DAMMED LEFTIES! And who can be the lone decent right hander?

 

Mind you, I also think rodon should be back in the minors, and Danks released

[caulfield12]

That. $10 million for the season, prorated for 2/3 of the year, give or take the extra 10 days, winds up somewhere around $4 mil. It's not huge, but it's not worth ignoring either.

 

And yet we have ignored wasting money like that on Bonifacio, Paulie, Keppinger, Beckham, Downs, Belisario, Paulino, etc.

 

It all adds up.

 

We can't even get our "value" contracts right these days.

 

 

[LDF]

Any "B" prospect in high A ball or higher is better than the comp pick. It's a low bar to clear. If they can't at least get that for him than they f***ed up.

 

i know this is me, but when KW is involve, i wouldn't put it past him.

[Balta1701]

The 2015 budget has already been passed.

 

That said, who replaces him in the rotation? The sox already have FOUR GOD DAMMED LEFTIES! And who can be the lone decent right hander?

 

Mind you, I also think rodon should be back in the minors, and Danks released

Erik Johnson should be in the rotation within the next week. He's 100% earned the shot.

 

Since they're not going to eat the money on Danks, Danks can start in the rotation next year and then Carson takes his place sometime early in the year assuming the normal White Sox like progression. That's when Danks finally moves to the bullpen and we near the end.

 

It's still not a very competitive roster since Rodon will be a still-learning sophomore and there will be a rookie and a rookie and a half, but you give the guys a chance to pitch through their difficulties as youngins for the next season+ and maybe, just maybe, by 2017 we have a really strong rotation where everyone is young and still has a good amount of experience.

[chitownsportsfan]

Erik Johnson should be in the rotation within the next week. He's 100% earned the shot.

 

Since they're not going to eat the money on Danks, Danks can start in the rotation next year and then Carson takes his place sometime early in the year assuming the normal White Sox like progression. That's when Danks finally moves to the bullpen and we near the end.

 

It's still not a very competitive roster since Rodon will be a still-learning sophomore and there will be a rookie and a rookie and a half, but you give the guys a chance to pitch through their difficulties as youngins for the next season+ and maybe, just maybe, by 2017 we have a really strong rotation where everyone is young and still has a good amount of experience.

 

 

I just shake my head. If that happens they deserve the 10k average they will get next year.

[Chisoxfn]

More so than that, his performance this season suggests he would be a terrible choice for a long-term, high-dollar investment, particularly for a team where it's at best questionable whether they'd be able to field a decent team around him in the first year.

His last 12 starts. 11 times he has gone at least 7 innings. 8 times he has given up 3 runs or less. 10 times he has given up 4 runs or less. 6 times he has given up 2 runs or less. 7 of those starts he has given up the same or less hits then innings pitched. I realize his strikeout numbers are down, but he is still getting 7K / 9 innings, which is pretty strong and has good ground ball rates (especially after his early struggles) while home run rate is up significantly (fluky stat, but from .6/9 inning to 1 / 9 inning). He also has a new hitting coach and might even be strategically pitching to contact. He is also pitching slightly deeper into games (on average) this year vs. last year. By no way am I saying he's having a great year, I'm just saying that I don't know how much of his production is combo of a little worse luck and a full season in a better league (vs. only partial season in AL in prior year and that was all in a pitchers park). Are strikeout numbers down because he's pitching more to contact and working on getting more groundball outs / early inning outs to go deeper into games?

 

To me the question is what is the deal but I don't know that I would bet more on him being like he was thus far this year or more like him being how he was the past 4 years (blended average). Unless we think his stuff isn't their or has degraded.

[Balta1701]

His last 12 starts. 11 times he has gone at least 7 innings. 8 times he has given up 3 runs or less. 10 times he has given up 4 runs or less. 6 times he has given up 2 runs or less. 7 of those starts he has given up the same or less hits then innings pitched. I realize his strikeout numbers are down, but he is still getting 7K / 9 innings, which is pretty strong and has good ground ball rates (especially after his early struggles) while home run rate is up significantly (fluky stat, but from .6/9 inning to 1 / 9 inning). He also has a new hitting coach and might even be strategically pitching to contact. He is also pitching slightly deeper into games (on average) this year vs. last year. By no way am I saying he's having a great year, I'm just saying that I don't know how much of his production is combo of a little worse luck and a full season in a better league (vs. only partial season in AL in prior year and that was all in a pitchers park). Are strikeout numbers down because he's pitching more to contact and working on getting more groundball outs / early inning outs to go deeper into games?

 

To me the question is what is the deal but I don't know that I would bet more on him being like he was thus far this year or more like him being how he was the past 4 years (blended average). Unless we think his stuff isn't their or has degraded.

The bolded is exactly what I'm focusing on with his K-Rate. His K-Rate is the worst of his career. you giving that list of his positive starts could be answered by me giving the list of his negative starts from the beginning of the year.

 

Reality? Jeff Samardzija last year had the best strikeout rate of his career and the best numbers of his career for a reason - they're directly linkes. This year his K-Rate is very much down, 30% lower than last year, and that's not a statistical fluke, it's been that way the entire year. Almost entirely because his K-rate is down, he's a worse pitcher. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, it makes him a middle of the order starter right now.

 

He'll have some good games, like he did against Toronto, but when he can't put people away with the strikeout he'll also have some weak games like he did his next time out against KC. The balance between them is set based on whether or not he can strike people out. If people are putting the ball in play enough against him, he will get beat too often.

 

If he's this pitcher again next year, he's a solid #3 starter that can help a team with a good offense to the playoffs. But...that huge, sudden drop in K-rate should be extremely concerning to any team wanting to bid on him. If he's giving up strikeouts for those other things...he's losing games because of it. If he's willing to lose games because of this strategy, then we should expect he's a 4-ish ERA pitcher in the future.

 

If the White Sox win 86 games this year and need a pitcher in the middle of the rotation to put them over the hump and have a ton of money to spend, fine he's a candidate for that. For a long term deal, for a team that struggled this year, is extremely weak on offense, and keeps spending their first round pick on pitchers anyway? I wouldn't touch a guy whose K-rate plummeted like this with a 20 foot pole.

[OmarComing25]

The bolded is exactly what I'm focusing on with his K-Rate. His K-Rate is the worst of his career. you giving that list of his positive starts could be answered by me giving the list of his negative starts from the beginning of the year.

 

Reality? Jeff Samardzija last year had the best strikeout rate of his career and the best numbers of his career for a reason - they're directly linkes. This year his K-Rate is very much down, 30% lower than last year, and that's not a statistical fluke, it's been that way the entire year. Almost entirely because his K-rate is down, he's a worse pitcher. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, it makes him a middle of the order starter right now.

 

He'll have some good games, like he did against Toronto, but when he can't put people away with the strikeout he'll also have some weak games like he did his next time out against KC. The balance between them is set based on whether or not he can strike people out. If people are putting the ball in play enough against him, he will get beat too often.

 

If he's this pitcher again next year, he's a solid #3 starter that can help a team with a good offense to the playoffs. But...that huge, sudden drop in K-rate should be extremely concerning to any team wanting to bid on him. If he's giving up strikeouts for those other things...he's losing games because of it. If he's willing to lose games because of this strategy, then we should expect he's a 4-ish ERA pitcher in the future.

 

If the White Sox win 86 games this year and need a pitcher in the middle of the rotation to put them over the hump and have a ton of money to spend, fine he's a candidate for that. For a long term deal, for a team that struggled this year, is extremely weak on offense, and keeps spending their first round pick on pitchers anyway? I wouldn't touch a guy whose K-rate plummeted like this with a 20 foot pole.

Good post and completely agreed. However, if you believe him to be a 4-ish ERA guy going forward, that is back-end of the rotation material, not a #3 starter in this current run environment. It's below average. Either way he's certainly not going to be worth anything close to $18ish million a year if his K-rate doesn't improve.

[Balta1701]

Good post and completely agreed. However, if you believe him to be a 4-ish ERA guy going forward, that is back-end of the rotation material, not a #3 starter in this current run environment. It's below average. Either way he's certainly not going to be worth anything close to $18ish million a year if his K-rate doesn't improve.

Maybe 4-ish is a bit harsh, but 3.6-3.75 is not. Slightly closer to average?

[Balta1701]

Oh, and if he's sacrificing strikeouts for more ground balls, his ground ball rate is also the worst of his career. That bounces around enough that I wouldn't call that as scary of a trend as the dropoff in strikeouts...but if he's cutting down on the strikeouts to get more ground balls...he's failing at both.

[greg775]

It's such a no brainer. We've already waited way too long to deal him and be an aggressive trading team. Sox can always try to sign him in the offseason if they want him.

Hahn should call 2-3 teams that need pitching and get it done now. Sox have nothing to lose. No fans in their right minds believe the team can contend the rest of this season so attendance will be the same with or without Shark. Nobody's coming to games because he might lead us to the WC. Sox fans are smart. Not a contender.

 

I don't know why they don't deal him now for either 2 top prospects or somebody like Colon and a prospect.

[Chisoxfn]

The bolded is exactly what I'm focusing on with his K-Rate. His K-Rate is the worst of his career. you giving that list of his positive starts could be answered by me giving the list of his negative starts from the beginning of the year.

 

Reality? Jeff Samardzija last year had the best strikeout rate of his career and the best numbers of his career for a reason - they're directly linkes. This year his K-Rate is very much down, 30% lower than last year, and that's not a statistical fluke, it's been that way the entire year. Almost entirely because his K-rate is down, he's a worse pitcher. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, it makes him a middle of the order starter right now.

 

He'll have some good games, like he did against Toronto, but when he can't put people away with the strikeout he'll also have some weak games like he did his next time out against KC. The balance between them is set based on whether or not he can strike people out. If people are putting the ball in play enough against him, he will get beat too often.

 

If he's this pitcher again next year, he's a solid #3 starter that can help a team with a good offense to the playoffs. But...that huge, sudden drop in K-rate should be extremely concerning to any team wanting to bid on him. If he's giving up strikeouts for those other things...he's losing games because of it. If he's willing to lose games because of this strategy, then we should expect he's a 4-ish ERA pitcher in the future.

 

If the White Sox win 86 games this year and need a pitcher in the middle of the rotation to put them over the hump and have a ton of money to spend, fine he's a candidate for that. For a long term deal, for a team that struggled this year, is extremely weak on offense, and keeps spending their first round pick on pitchers anyway? I wouldn't touch a guy whose K-rate plummeted like this with a 20 foot pole.

His Krate went from 8.2 to 7.1 (last year to this year). Is that a decline, sure, but when you put it in context and assume some variabliity due to luck / other factors, he's basically been above average to great in terms of k-rate. This years rate at 7.1 would be "average", however, again if you adjust out his first month of baseball, you are talking about a K-rate in excess of 7.5 and back in the above average range. And whether you want to throw out those starts or not, I'm just saying the recent trend seems to indicate he's still an above average pitcher with above average stuff. He could have been pressing or a million other things he had to deal with. Additionally, this is a guy who moved from the NL to the AL (technically a little over halfway through last season), so I would expect his k-rate would come down given the fact that he stopped facing a pitcher 2-3 times a game. You can throw out what you want but in my world, I don't necessarily reach conclusions when you can throw out an early part of someone's season. if his stuff was detioritating then, I might have another case.

 

In fact, to me, if you put the stats behind it and have conversations and actually think he's better then he is, you might truly get a value depending on what he wants to take (probably not cause no 30 year old pitcher who is nearing FA is going to sign a bargain contract or it at least isn't likely). And your k-rate is one thing and again k-rates can drop if someone is working on throwing less pitches / getting people out earlier in the count (to go deeper into games). It happens, pitchers make adjustments as they mature and he might still be working through some components. The HR rate being up is often times a fluky stat in and of itself and if you adjust for that, you'd have a guy whose ERA would be lower as well. Bottom line, I don't see any justification for staying away from him with a 20 foot pole. He's got relatively low mileage for his age and good stuff.

 

Is he an ace, hell no. Is he a solid #2 and amazing #3, yes, yes he is, and if you can get him at a fair price, then you think long and hard about it.

[Chisoxfn]

His Krate went from 8.2 to 7.1 (last year to this year). Is that a decline, sure, but when you put it in context and assume some variabliity due to luck / other factors, he's basically been above average to great in terms of k-rate. This years rate at 7.1 would be "average", however, again if you adjust out his first month of baseball, you are talking about a K-rate in excess of 7.5 and back in the above average range. And whether you want to throw out those starts or not, I'm just saying the recent trend seems to indicate he's still an above average pitcher with above average stuff. He could have been pressing or a million other things he had to deal with. Additionally, this is a guy who moved from the NL to the AL (technically a little over halfway through last season), so I would expect his k-rate would come down given the fact that he stopped facing a pitcher 2-3 times a game. You can throw out what you want but in my world, I don't necessarily reach conclusions when you can throw out an early part of someone's season. if his stuff was detioritating then, I might have another case.

 

In fact, to me, if you put the stats behind it and have conversations and actually think he's better then he is, you might truly get a value depending on what he wants to take (probably not cause no 30 year old pitcher who is nearing FA is going to sign a bargain contract or it at least isn't likely). And your k-rate is one thing and again k-rates can drop if someone is working on throwing less pitches / getting people out earlier in the count (to go deeper into games). It happens, pitchers make adjustments as they mature and he might still be working through some components. The HR rate being up is often times a fluky stat in and of itself and if you adjust for that, you'd have a guy whose ERA would be lower as well. Bottom line, I don't see any justification for staying away from him with a 20 foot pole. He's got relatively low mileage for his age and good stuff.

 

Is he an ace, hell no. Is he a solid #2 and amazing #3, yes, yes he is, and if you can get him at a fair price, then you think long and hard about it.

On a sidenote, i am an advocate of trading Shark and Q and then making a run at Shark again in the off-season, but if he truly were willing to sign a 4 year deal that would be a hometown discount, I'd be willing to listen.