Balta1701 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:41 PM) On a sidenote, i am an advocate of trading Shark and Q and then making a run at Shark again in the off-season, but if he truly were willing to sign a 4 year deal that would be a hometown discount, I'd be willing to listen. Despite all the other performance issues that tell me to stay away and the fact that the white sox are piling up pitching prospects that should be in line before him, I also think the trump card remains "if the White Sox have $17.5 million to spend next offseason why on Earth are they spending it on their starting rotation"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 01:42 PM) Despite all the other performance issues that tell me to stay away and the fact that the white sox are piling up pitching prospects that should be in line before him, I also think the trump card remains "if the White Sox have $17.5 million to spend next offseason why on Earth are they spending it on their starting rotation"? You showed me one stat. One freaking stat. That is "all the other performance" issues. Most every team in baseball would take Jeff and plug him into their #2 or #3 spot. If you showed me the stat and he was getting hit massively harder and was no longer a good pitcher, sure, I could bite, but what I am telling you is that stat would regress anyway (due to change in leauge) and then you take away early starts where he might have been pressing, and you have a trend where that reduction in K/rate isn't near as significant. I work with numbers enough to know you can find any player and complain about them. Maybe we should stay far away from Mike Trout because his strikeout rate increased exponentially from the 1st two years. I can cherry pick stats all day long. Is their a signficant # of stats that say Shark isn't a solid #2 / frontline #3 and that I shouldn't expect that going forward? Has his stuff fallen off a cliff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:39 PM) Additionally, this is a guy who moved from the NL to the AL (technically a little over halfway through last season), so I would expect his k-rate would come down given the fact that he stopped facing a pitcher 2-3 times a game. It dropped from 8.6 to 8.0 when he went to Oakland last year for >100 innings. It's down a lot even from where he was in Oakland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 01:48 PM) It dropped from 8.6 to 8.0 when he went to Oakland last year for >100 innings. It's down a lot even from where he was in Oakland. Not really..you take away that 1st month where he struggled and the difference in k/rate isn't much different then some of the other random variations he's had season to season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Pitchers who have experienced a similar drop in K-rate at roughly Samardzija's age and then had it rebound: Zach Greinke Jon Lester Cole Hamels Francisco Liriano Anibal Sanchez Ubaldo Jimenez I can keep going but that was like 2 minutes of searching. You're overthinking it Balta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:48 PM) You showed me one stat. One freaking stat. That is "all the other performance" issues. Most every team in baseball would take Jeff and plug him into their #2 or #3 spot. If you showed me the stat and he was getting hit massively harder and was no longer a good pitcher, sure, I could bite, but what I am telling you is that stat would regress anyway (due to change in leauge) and then you take away early starts where he might have been pressing, and you have a trend where that reduction in K/rate isn't near as significant. I work with numbers enough to know you can find any player and complain about them. Maybe we should stay far away from Mike Trout because his strikeout rate increased exponentially from the 1st two years. I can cherry pick stats all day long. Is their a signficant # of stats that say Shark isn't a solid #2 / frontline #3 and that I shouldn't expect that going forward? Has his stuff fallen off a cliff? I can't do any better to show Samardzija's K-rate rolling off a cliff than this image. Unfortunately the board won't let me embed it. If this isn't a trend of a guy showing his age I don't know what is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted July 22, 2015 Author Share Posted July 22, 2015 If the Sox can get an MLB ready or closer hitting prospect for Jeff, I'd think long and hard about signing him in the offseason if the contract isn't obscene. If the Sox returned next year with Sale-Q-Rodon-Jeff as their front four, then they have to start selling on some of EJ-Fulmer-Danish-Adams-Montas for hitting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 02:31 PM) The bolded is exactly what I'm focusing on with his K-Rate. His K-Rate is the worst of his career. you giving that list of his positive starts could be answered by me giving the list of his negative starts from the beginning of the year. Reality? Jeff Samardzija last year had the best strikeout rate of his career and the best numbers of his career for a reason - they're directly linkes. This year his K-Rate is very much down, 30% lower than last year, and that's not a statistical fluke, it's been that way the entire year. Almost entirely because his K-rate is down, he's a worse pitcher. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, it makes him a middle of the order starter right now. He'll have some good games, like he did against Toronto, but when he can't put people away with the strikeout he'll also have some weak games like he did his next time out against KC. The balance between them is set based on whether or not he can strike people out. If people are putting the ball in play enough against him, he will get beat too often. If he's this pitcher again next year, he's a solid #3 starter that can help a team with a good offense to the playoffs. But...that huge, sudden drop in K-rate should be extremely concerning to any team wanting to bid on him. If he's giving up strikeouts for those other things...he's losing games because of it. If he's willing to lose games because of this strategy, then we should expect he's a 4-ish ERA pitcher in the future. If the White Sox win 86 games this year and need a pitcher in the middle of the rotation to put them over the hump and have a ton of money to spend, fine he's a candidate for that. For a long term deal, for a team that struggled this year, is extremely weak on offense, and keeps spending their first round pick on pitchers anyway? I wouldn't touch a guy whose K-rate plummeted like this with a 20 foot pole. Shouldn't we be comparing his k-rate with the A's moreso than anything he put up in the NL, since you're getting pitchers batting at least twice per game, which would explain a falloff from 8/9ip to just 7. Could it simply be the hitting in the AL Central this season is just better than what he was facing in the AL West and NL Central? Are their pitch fx and spin numbers that show his stuff has somehow deteriorated? Are the fastball and slider exit velocities comparable? Swing and miss rates? What about comparing use of repertoire from 2014 vs. 2015? Is there a payoff from pitching longer into games and exposing less of the bullpen? Maybe with the White Sox offense, guys like Shark or Quintana just don't look as good because they're prone to lots of starts where they give up 2-3 runs and end up on the losing side of the ledger. Edited July 22, 2015 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sox Fan In Husker Land Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 03:02 PM) Erik Johnson should be in the rotation within the next week. He's 100% earned the shot. Since they're not going to eat the money on Danks, Danks can start in the rotation next year and then Carson takes his place sometime early in the year assuming the normal White Sox like progression. That's when Danks finally moves to the bullpen and we near the end. It's still not a very competitive roster since Rodon will be a still-learning sophomore and there will be a rookie and a rookie and a half, but you give the guys a chance to pitch through their difficulties as youngins for the next season+ and maybe, just maybe, by 2017 we have a really strong rotation where everyone is young and still has a good amount of experience. In 2017 we could have an entire rotation 28 or younger and under team control through 2019. Chris Sale 28, $12 million. Under control through 2019. Jose Quintana 28, $7 million. Under control through 2020. Carlos Rodon 24, $660 K?. Under control through 2021. Erik Johnson 27 $660 K? Under control through 2020. Carson Fulmer 23 $660 K? Under control through 2022. In 2017 the bullpen could also still consist of Robertson, Duke, Nate Jones, Putnam, Petricka, Jennings, Webb, Montas, Danish and any others we chose to add. Pitching appears to be in good shape for the future. There is no need for Jeff Samardzija in the rotation costing $12 mill + a year. There will also be no more $15.75 mill from John Danks in there. We need to trade Samardzija (not for scraps but something or take the comp pick) and give Johnson and Rodon chances to grow the rest of this season and next so we can see what we have for the next couple of years. If they can't handle it we need to look for another solution in the rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Sox Fan In Husker Land @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 05:10 PM) In 2017 we could have an entire rotation 28 or younger and under team control through 2019. Chris Sale 28, $12 million. Under control through 2019. Jose Quintana 28, $7 million. Under control through 2020. Carlos Rodon 24, $660 K?. Under control through 2021. Erik Johnson 27 $660 K? Under control through 2020. Carson Fulmer 23 $660 K? Under control through 2022. In 2017 the bullpen could also still consist of Robertson, Duke, Nate Jones, Putnam, Petricka, Jennings, Webb, Montas, Danish and any others we chose to add. Pitching appears to be in good shape for the future. There is no need for Jeff Samardzija in the rotation costing $12 mill + a year. There will also be no more $15.75 mill from John Danks in there. We need to trade Samardzija (not for scraps but something or take the comp pick) and give Johnson and Rodon chances to grow the rest of this season and next so we can see what we have for the next couple of years. If they can't handle it we need to look for another solution in the rotation. How will the offense look???? If you don't trade pitching, other than Shark, how are you filling the numerous holes offensively and defensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 05:37 PM) How will the offense look???? If you don't trade pitching, other than Shark, how are you filling the numerous holes offensively and defensively. Use 2016 to develop what we can out of Garcia, Eaton, and the middle infielders we have. 2016 clears out LaRoche and Danks's money as well, leaving us with only Cabrera as a likely bad contract. Right now it looks like Jose Abreu is going to either be a long-term DH or a guy who is regularly banged up and not able to contribute like he did in 2014, but 2016 will provide good evidence if that's not the case (maybe he gets a better training routine next offseason and comes back healthier?). From there, now we're in a position to know better what positions we have major holes at. If Garcia hits like this in 2016 you cut him loose if you intend to compete in 2017, if he does turn into something useful then at least we'll have a positive season before we count on him. If Eaton is still a replacement-level player that's fine, you stick him 7th in the lineup and deal with it. Hopefully....Anderson continues the run he's on and can be a tolerable player by then. That leaves us a bunch of money to spend, either on the FA market or by taking on other team's salary in trades starting around the deadline and going through the after 2016 offseason. Hopefully we get something out of Samardzija that is useful in the lineup and makes up for all the pieces we gave away, and we're in a position to make a big upgrade or two to fill the last couple slots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Nobody is going to let good hitting leave anymore. It will still be a crap offense or 2nd contract guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Sox Fan In Husker Land @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:10 PM) In 2017 we could have an entire rotation 28 or younger and under team control through 2019. Chris Sale 28, $12 million. Under control through 2019. Jose Quintana 28, $7 million. Under control through 2020. Carlos Rodon 24, $660 K?. Under control through 2021. Erik Johnson 27 $660 K? Under control through 2020. Carson Fulmer 23 $660 K? Under control through 2022. In 2017 the bullpen could also still consist of Robertson, Duke, Nate Jones, Putnam, Petricka, Jennings, Webb, Montas, Danish and any others we chose to add. Pitching appears to be in good shape for the future. There is no need for Jeff Samardzija in the rotation costing $12 mill + a year. There will also be no more $15.75 mill from John Danks in there. We need to trade Samardzija (not for scraps but something or take the comp pick) and give Johnson and Rodon chances to grow the rest of this season and next so we can see what we have for the next couple of years. If they can't handle it we need to look for another solution in the rotation. This is a really good post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 06:03 PM) Nobody is going to let good hitting leave anymore. It will still be a crap offense or 2nd contract guys. I don't know how his offense will look by then, he's trending downwards but still in his 20s, but Carlos Gomez did stand out to me amongst the potential 2016 class. Other than that though, you're right. We need to get some production out of the guys we currently have. Unfortunately I can't guarantee that...but I will say that the only way to turn these guys into big league hitters is to give them a chance to be big league hitters. Put Eaton, Garcia, Johnson, Abreu, some of the IFs out there in 2016 and see if we can turn them into something tolerable. Otherwise, we've got to replace about 6 different positions this year to even have a shot at getting a competitive offense together for next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 01:53 PM) <!--quoteo(post=3201965:date=Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:48 PM:name=Chisoxfn)-->QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:48 PM) <!--quotec-->You showed me one stat. One freaking stat. That is "all the other performance" issues. Most every team in baseball would take Jeff and plug him into their #2 or #3 spot. If you showed me the stat and he was getting hit massively harder and was no longer a good pitcher, sure, I could bite, but what I am telling you is that stat would regress anyway (due to change in leauge) and then you take away early starts where he might have been pressing, and you have a trend where that reduction in K/rate isn't near as significant. I work with numbers enough to know you can find any player and complain about them. Maybe we should stay far away from Mike Trout because his strikeout rate increased exponentially from the 1st two years. I can cherry pick stats all day long. Is their a signficant # of stats that say Shark isn't a solid #2 / frontline #3 and that I shouldn't expect that going forward? Has his stuff fallen off a cliff? I can't do any better to show Samardzija's K-rate rolling off a cliff than this image. Unfortunately the board won't let me embed it. If this isn't a trend of a guy showing his age I don't know what is. So I take that image and I look at the peak year and then the year after is the same (esentially) as the year prior to the peak (so the anomaly might be the one peak year). Then the subsequent year (which was last year), his NL only performance had a rate pretty close to the previous year (so again not really any decline). Since he moves to the AL, you had a decline (which is expected) and then this year a further decline, although some of it driven by some early struggles (where he might have been pressing or whatever else). Their is more to this story then just looking at the picture and I've explained potential reasons behind each and it is why I keep going back to the point that the $ value matters and what do our scouts and baseball people say about his stuff (is it degrading, etc)? Is their other issues / alarming problems with injuries or other things that are altering mechanics or command that are potential longer term issues? I don't know those answers but I do have potential explanations for those anomalies that make me far less concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 04:51 PM) Use 2016 to develop what we can out of Garcia, Eaton, and the middle infielders we have. 2016 clears out LaRoche and Danks's money as well, leaving us with only Cabrera as a likely bad contract. Right now it looks like Jose Abreu is going to either be a long-term DH or a guy who is regularly banged up and not able to contribute like he did in 2014, but 2016 will provide good evidence if that's not the case (maybe he gets a better training routine next offseason and comes back healthier?). This, of course, is what we should have done in 2015, but I agree with you. Still, there is no 3B or catcher on the horizon and the Sox need to do looking for deals along those lines as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 06:46 PM) This, of course, is what we should have done in 2015, but I agree with you. Still, there is no 3B or catcher on the horizon and the Sox need to do looking for deals along those lines as well. If somehow Micah and Anderson were both positive offensive contributors by 2017, that could offset 3b and maybe even allow Sanchez/Saladino to hold it down effectively, esp. if Saladino can find a way to grow as a big league hitter given the start he's on...but the only way we're going to have confidence in any of that is to slow down and play the guys we have for a season to see what they can turn into. That said...would continue looking for candidates at those slots in trades as well. And it still leaves us a glaring lack of power, as well as major potential gaps in the corner OF. Woulda been really nice to have Semien in this mix as well. Hell, with Abreu's season, woulda been nice to have Ravelo as a 2016 candidate arrival as well (even though he's also been hurt this year). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 05:51 PM) If somehow Micah and Anderson were both positive offensive contributors by 2017, that could offset 3b and maybe even allow Sanchez/Saladino to hold it down effectively, esp. if Saladino can find a way to grow as a big league hitter given the start he's on...but the only way we're going to have confidence in any of that is to slow down and play the guys we have for a season to see what they can turn into. That said...would continue looking for candidates at those slots in trades as well. And it still leaves us a glaring lack of power, as well as major potential gaps in the corner OF. Woulda been really nice to have Semien in this mix as well. Hell, with Abreu's season, woulda been nice to have Ravelo as a 2016 candidate arrival as well (even though he's also been hurt this year). yes, that's true. It would be nice to have Phegley's bat as well. Maybe they can get someone interesting for Samardzija But I don't see a year of patience ahead. Williams might double down on his winter 2014 nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 06:51 PM) If somehow Micah and Anderson were both positive offensive contributors by 2017, that could offset 3b and maybe even allow Sanchez/Saladino to hold it down effectively, esp. if Saladino can find a way to grow as a big league hitter given the start he's on...but the only way we're going to have confidence in any of that is to slow down and play the guys we have for a season to see what they can turn into. That said...would continue looking for candidates at those slots in trades as well. And it still leaves us a glaring lack of power, as well as major potential gaps in the corner OF. Woulda been really nice to have Semien in this mix as well. Hell, with Abreu's season, woulda been nice to have Ravelo as a 2016 candidate arrival as well (even though he's also been hurt this year). Anderson ( at SS) and Micah( at 2B) are both at this stage very questionable defensively. Now maybe Anderson can play 2nd but I doubt they will ever be the Sox doublplay combination. Maybe the defensive light goes on for both guys but hopefully one can play average defense at 2nd since I think both can hit at ML level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 08:08 PM) Anderson ( at SS) and Micah( at 2B) are both at this stage very questionable defensively. Now maybe Anderson can play 2nd but I doubt they will ever be the Sox doublplay combination. Maybe the defensive light goes on for both guys but hopefully one can play average defense at 2nd since I think both can hit at ML level. Only way we're going to get them there is to work them at it. And that means understanding how weak our roster is and using the positions to let them grow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jul 22, 2015 -> 07:08 PM) Anderson ( at SS) and Micah( at 2B) are both at this stage very questionable defensively. Now maybe Anderson can play 2nd but I doubt they will ever be the Sox doublplay combination. Maybe the defensive light goes on for both guys but hopefully one can play average defense at 2nd since I think both can hit at ML level. Anderson has been receiving glowing endorsements for his defense this year. Supposedly he's taken a big step forward with the glove, so I'd hold off sentencing him to 2B for his career. Edited July 23, 2015 by Chicago White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I assume most of you have seen this article today: http://m.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article/137...10400-819207683 Anyone have strong thoughts on these players? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Astros make the most sense right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 23, 2015 -> 09:05 AM) Astros make the most sense right now. Yeah they do. I'd send Shark and Putnam for Santana, Stassi, and Moran. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macsandz Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 QUOTE (Lillian @ Jul 23, 2015 -> 09:05 AM) I assume most of you have seen this article today: http://m.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article/137...10400-819207683 Anyone have strong thoughts on these players? You lost me at "By Phil Rodgers" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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