Scott Kazmir traded to Astros

[Dick Allen]

I agree with this post and I also say Crasnick's tweet could be a mirade of things and it could have even been the Sox working on keeping any leverage they have (I don't really think they have a lot, in the case of Shark) but they'll do what they can to spin things. I still think we should aggressively look at moving Q and Shark.

 

Would anyone be interested in Shields (if say the Pads would do Danks for Shields and cash (or maybe Danks and LaRoche).

It would depend on the cash. Sheilds' contract is tremendously back loaded.

[Balta1701]

If the White Sox made the trade today and got what Oakland got for Kazmir for Shark, the people complaining would still be complaining. Only, instead of "they waited too long", it would have been "what was the rush"

I'd be saying "Well they added a catcher at the lower levels, they must have liked him, this definitely fills a need in our system and I hope he can make the bigs in a couple years".

[Balta1701]

I agree with this post and I also say Crasnick's tweet could be a mirade of things and it could have even been the Sox working on keeping any leverage they have (I don't really think they have a lot, in the case of Shark) but they'll do what they can to spin things. I still think we should aggressively look at moving Q and Shark.

 

Would anyone be interested in Shields (if say the Pads would do Danks for Shields and cash (or maybe Danks and LaRoche).

I don't think the White Sox should be spending money on pitching in the least. Moving Danks and LaRoche would help, but that's still the Sox spending a huge amount of money at the position where they're by far the deepest and strongest.

[caulfield12]

The problem is the options are limited because few teams want to give up impact players on offense now, especially at premium positions.

 

Let's say the White Sox threw the name Domingo Santana out there with Houston, a prospect maybe a notch above Avisail but certainly with bust concerns like all youngsters (Jose Tabata, Snider and now Polanco would come to mind if we were talking about the Pirates' system). Luhnow will give up the Kazmir package 100 times in a row before he parts with a Santana. And that's a GM with a stable of talent that added to the future stockpile this past draft.

 

If you're Hahn, 90% of you is of the belief that a compensation pick's impact will come way too late to save your job the way things are currently setting up with the free agent markets over the next two off-seasons. You also don't have the ability to spend more than this past offseason, and the impact names (Wieters, Gordon, Cespedes, Heyward) are going to cost an arm and a leg.

 

It's almost an impossible solution to solve. Logic dictates that only by substantially improving 3-4 other positions can you have a legit chance of improving the team substantially. On the other hand, the allure of that one big name (Russell Wilson or Cruz this past year) can be quite difficult to pass up.

 

The one thing we do know is that this means trading Quintana or even Sale...and hitting that trade out of the park. The two superstars model didn't get them anywhere last year. Undoubtedly, we will be underwhelmed by any initial trade/compensation outcome because there's simply zero faith in our ability to coach up those A+ and AA hitters and groom them for the majors. Most importantly, there's simply no time to be patient if you go back to that three year window.

 

What ends up happening is you get lesser impact because the ceilings on the near major league ready position players will be lower.

Edited July 23, 2015 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

The problem is the options are limited because few teams want to give up impact players on offense now, especially at premium positions.

 

Let's say the White Sox threw the name Domingo Santana out there with Houston, a prospect maybe a notch above Avisail but certainly with bust concerns like all youngsters (Jose Tabata, Snider and now Polanco would come to mind if we were talking about the Pirates' system). Luhnow will give up the Kazmir package 100 times in a row before he parts with a Santana. And that's a GM with a stable of talent that added to the future stockpile this past draft.

 

If you're Hahn, 90% of you is of the belief that a compensation pick's impact will come way too late to save your job the way things are currently setting up with the free agent markets over the next two off-seasons. You also don't have the ability to spend more than this past offseason, and the impact names (Wieters, Gordon, Cespedes, Heyward) are going to cost an arm and a leg.

 

It's almost an impossible solution to solve. Logic dictates that only by substantially improving 3-4 other positions can you have a legit chance of improving the team substantially. On the other hand, the allure of that one big name (Russell Wilson or Cruz this past year) can be quite difficult to pass up.

 

The one thing we do know is that this means trading Quintana or even Sale...and hitting that trade out of the park. The two superstars model didn't get them anywhere last year. Undoubtedly, we will be underwhelmed by any initial trade/compensation outcome because there's simply zero faith in our ability to coach up those A+ and AA hitters and groom them for the majors. Most importantly, there's simply no time to be patient if you go back to that three year window.

 

What ends up happening is you get lesser impact because the ceilings on the near major league ready position players will be lower.

The White Sox should do everyone a favor, themselves included, and just fold.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't think the White Sox should be spending money on pitching in the least. Moving Danks and LaRoche would help, but that's still the Sox spending a huge amount of money at the position where they're by far the deepest and strongest.

Remember, you'd then be flipping Q and Shark (so would we really be that deep in pitching). I actually recently advocated for moving Shark / Q and then signing Buehrle (you can go more short-term and he brings a certain presence to him that I think would be valued). That said, I'm a loyalist to Buehrle. His arm could fall off but I almost think he's the type that would take a 1 yr deal each year and you could make the decision each year (just as he could make his same decision as to whether he wanted to play).

[caulfield12]

I'd be saying "Well they added a catcher at the lower levels, they must have liked him, this definitely fills a need in our system and I hope he can make the bigs in a couple years".

 

And that there's zero belief Nieto (who we invested time in grooming) and Kevan Smith and maybe Austin are unlikely to be long-term solutions at that position.

 

Nieto has almost fallen off the map this year after receiving his fair share of compliments last season.

 

Another scouting failure?

 

Well, it's hard to be encouraged, that's for sure. We aren't hitting on a single lottery ticket.

[caulfield12]

The White Sox should do everyone a favor, themselves included, and just fold.

 

It might perhaps be easier to hire people who are better at talent evaluation on the position player side...and changing the philosophy of their entire minor league system.

 

They might make incremental changes like a Paddy here and the new assistant GM, but those guys aren't game changers.

 

It's not rocket science here.

Edited July 23, 2015 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Remember, you'd then be flipping Q and Shark (so would we really be that deep in pitching). I actually recently advocated for moving Shark / Q and then signing Buehrle (you can go more short-term and he brings a certain presence to him that I think would be valued). That said, I'm a loyalist to Buehrle. His arm could fall off but I almost think he's the type that would take a 1 yr deal each year and you could make the decision each year (just as he could make his same decision as to whether he wanted to play).

Honestly, yes, I think we'd still 100% be that deep in pitching. We're not low on pitching until we trade Quintana or Sale.

 

I've said before and will say again, unless EJ implodes again, I'm 100% ok with a Sale, Q, Rodon, Johnson, Danks rotation to start next year with Danks departing after a month or two for replacement by Fulmer. Puts Fulmer on the same path as Rodon (even gets him more minor league time since he signed so much sooner), gets Johnson and Fulmer nearly full big league seasons so we're not counting on them as rookies in 2017, and even leaves us with an obvious top 6, with Montas and Danish appearing in the rearview as guys who could also come up late in 2016 or in 2017 depending on how they lok. You clear out Danks...we still have a nice slot for Fulmer next year.

 

You get those back 3 some legit experience in the bigs in 2016 and you've got a rotation that could be really, really good and really really cheap in 2017 and still leave us with pitchers at AAA who can step in, take bullpen roles, or even serve as the main chip in a trade for a major player.

 

I kinda get the Buehrle thing, I really do. I just want the open space for those rookies.

[Balta1701]

And that there's zero belief Nieto (who we invested time in grooming) and Kevan Smith and maybe Austin are unlikely to be long-term solutions at that position.

 

Nieto has almost fallen off the map this year after receiving his fair share of compliments last season.

 

Another scouting failure?

 

Well, it's hard to be encouraged, that's for sure. We aren't hitting on a single lottery ticket.

Nieto is not a scouting failure. We gave up nothing for him. If he had a 1% shot of being a big league catcher it was still a good move.

[harfman77]

I believe the freakout had one other major component, this tweet:

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick 55s55 seconds ago

The #Astros also had Jeff Samardzija on their radar, but couldn't afford to wait for #WhiteSox to decide on a course of action.

 

Thats a little vague though, it may mean that the Sox were deciding which package to accept for Shark and comparing them against the value of the comp pick and Houston was nervous that the Sox wouldn't take their offer and moved on. The package that OAK got was OK, but it sounds like Nottingham is pretty questionable to stick at C and the P projects as a RP. Not really a return I would jump at unless you really love Nottinghams bat and think he can place elsewhere.

[caulfield12]

Honestly, yes, I think we'd still 100% be that deep in pitching. We're not low on pitching until we trade Quintana or Sale.

 

I've said before and will say again, unless EJ implodes again, I'm 100% ok with a Sale, Q, Rodon, Johnson, Danks rotation to start next year with Danks departing after a month or two for replacement by Fulmer. Puts Fulmer on the same path as Rodon (even gets him more minor league time since he signed so much sooner), gets Johnson and Fulmer nearly full big league seasons so we're not counting on them as rookies in 2017, and even leaves us with an obvious top 6, with Montas and Danish appearing in the rearview as guys who could also come up late in 2016 or in 2017 depending on how they lok. You clear out Danks...we still have a nice slot for Fulmer next year.

 

You get those back 3 some legit experience in the bigs in 2016 and you've got a rotation that could be really, really good and really really cheap in 2017 and still leave us with pitchers at AAA who can step in, take bullpen roles, or even serve as the main chip in a trade for a major player.

 

I kinda get the Buehrle thing, I really do. I just want the open space for those rookies.

 

Buehrle would make all the sense in the world as the final rotation piece for the 2017 roster.

 

2016, not so much.

[Chisoxfn]

Honestly, yes, I think we'd still 100% be that deep in pitching. We're not low on pitching until we trade Quintana or Sale.

 

I've said before and will say again, unless EJ implodes again, I'm 100% ok with a Sale, Q, Rodon, Johnson, Danks rotation to start next year with Danks departing after a month or two for replacement by Fulmer. Puts Fulmer on the same path as Rodon (even gets him more minor league time since he signed so much sooner), gets Johnson and Fulmer nearly full big league seasons so we're not counting on them as rookies in 2017, and even leaves us with an obvious top 6, with Montas and Danish appearing in the rearview as guys who could also come up late in 2016 or in 2017 depending on how they lok. You clear out Danks...we still have a nice slot for Fulmer next year.

 

You get those back 3 some legit experience in the bigs in 2016 and you've got a rotation that could be really, really good and really really cheap in 2017 and still leave us with pitchers at AAA who can step in, take bullpen roles, or even serve as the main chip in a trade for a major player.

 

I kinda get the Buehrle thing, I really do. I just want the open space for those rookies.

And I was suggesting trading Quintana and Shark (plus we'd be trading Danks) so we'd be trading 3/5th's of our current rotation, so I don't see how adding Shields (or Buehrle for that matter) is a bad thing (in fact, under my hypothetical I really can't see any scenario where you wouldn't want to add some pitching). You then have Fullmer / Montas / Erik Johnson who can get opportunities (plus I'd hope we got at least one high powered arm back from the Q / Shark deals with the rest of the focus on position prospects) for 2 spots (plus we still have no idea whether Rodon will be good or not).

[ShandyMan]

Thats a little vague though, it may mean that the Sox were deciding which package to accept for Shark and comparing them against the value of the comp pick and Houston was nervous that the Sox wouldn't take their offer and moved on. The package that OAK got was OK, but it sounds like Nottingham is pretty questionable to stick at C and the P projects as a RP. Not really a return I would jump at unless you really love Nottinghams bat and think he can place elsewhere.

 

That's how interpreted it. I took it as they gave the sox an offer, which they said they'll get back to them while considering other offers. I did not see it as "hey we might still be contending".

[GGajewski18]

Set of interesting tweets about Samardzija I posted in the Shark thread.

[Balta1701]

And I was suggesting trading Quintana and Shark (plus we'd be trading Danks) so we'd be trading 3/5th's of our current rotation, so I don't see how adding Shields (or Buehrle for that matter) is a bad thing (in fact, under my hypothetical I really can't see any scenario where you wouldn't want to add some pitching). You then have Fullmer / Montas / Erik Johnson who can get opportunities (plus I'd hope we got at least one high powered arm back from the Q / Shark deals with the rest of the focus on position prospects) for 2 spots (plus we still have no idea whether Rodon will be good or not).

If you trade Quintana, yes, then you have to find another pitcher. In that case I'd take Shields contract on, presuming that we got back a couple big league starters for Q that are also fairly cheap. I could live with that assuming the Q return was worth it.

[caulfield12]

Nieto is not a scouting failure. We gave up nothing for him. If he had a 1% shot of being a big league catcher it was still a good move.

 

Let's just say it continues to fit the narrative of swinging and missing whenever it involves developing players at premium positions.

 

Who knows, maybe Tyler Saladino will shock the world, but Josh Phegley had a stretch where he looked like he could make an impact as well. Heck, even Jerry Owens and Josh Fields did in 2007.

 

Would still love to know if we ever had a shot at Donaldson and what was offered...or if Beane simply targeted Lawrie from the beginning (like the Davidson and Nestor Molina acquisitions on our side).

[Chisoxfn]

If you trade Quintana, yes, then you have to find another pitcher. In that case I'd take Shields contract on, presuming that we got back a couple big league starters for Q that are also fairly cheap. I could live with that assuming the Q return was worth it.

My thoughts are you flip Q to the Dodgers (Puig / Seager...no idea if they do it but if I can get those two, I think I live with it..if I can give up a prospect on our side to get Barnes, then all the better), Shark to the Blue Jays (if we are really lucky we get Hoffman). We still give Avi some more time, knowing we have a DH spot now open (since we traded LaRoche and Danks for Shields...this is if the Pads really are looking at just saving payroll and if the reports are true that no one would take Shields otherwise).

 

That isn't a bad move and you've added a few more attractive pieces.

[Balta1701]

My thoughts are you flip Q to the Dodgers (Puig / Seager...no idea if they do it but if I can get those two, I think I live with it..if I can give up a prospect on our side to get Barnes, then all the better), Shark to the Blue Jays (if we are really lucky we get Hoffman). We still give Avi some more time, knowing we have a DH spot now open (since we traded LaRoche and Danks for Shields...this is if the Pads really are looking at just saving payroll and if the reports are true that no one would take Shields otherwise).

 

That isn't a bad move and you've added a few more attractive pieces.

The bolded is where I think you overstep. I can see a Quintana for Puig plus smaller pieces deal where Puig looks like the centerpiece working for them. Maybe you could get them in on Quintana for Seager straight up, I think that's pretty close to a fair deal from my perspective but I think the Dodgers wouldn't do it. If you want Seager+ there's only 1 name on the White Sox that can bring that.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Ya, I think Puig and Barnes is more likely. Now if we're talking Sale, then you should get Puig and Seager. Which if you think Rodon and Fulmer are top of the rotation starters in 2 years, I would be open to that.

[SCCWS]

The Astros are without a doubt the most sabermetrical team in baseball. So if you're a saber guy, and knowing how thin catching is league-wide, and they trade him for a rental, wouldn't it make you think they aren't very high on him?

 

I see another conclusion. Not sure if the Astros are more sabermetric than the Red Sox since they hired Bill James. When the Red Sox traded for Peavy, they gave some pretty good prospects in Iglesias and Montas. But their FO said they felt Peavy would put them in a position to win a World Series. I don't think Peavy had a major impact but they won a World Series.

 

Maybe the Astros feel Kazmir is the piece to put them over the top and like the Red Sox are willing to part with their prospects to do so.

[LDF]

I see another conclusion. Not sure if the Astros are more sabermetric than the Red Sox since they hired Bill James. When the Red Sox traded for Peavy, they gave some pretty good prospects in Iglesias and Montas. But their FO said they felt Peavy would put them in a position to win a World Series. I don't think Peavy had a major impact but they won a World Series.

 

Maybe the Astros feel Kazmir is the piece to put them over the top and like the Red Sox are willing to part with their prospects to do so.

 

i don't know about that, but i do respect what you are saying. i never really thought of it until you brought it up.

 

1. i on 1 hand think that hou hasn't been in the playoff since when??

2. coming out of the al west, what other team can really challenge them, eps if they acquire the additional pieces??

3. they would gain some respectability among their fans and tickets sold for the rest of this season, playoff and next yr season tickets...

4. corp money next offseason.

5. lastly anything can happen in the play off.

 

hou still has a need for a cl/rp and another hitter. they have the minor league to invest to help fill those needs.

 

[Jerksticks]

I think people saying Shark nets a similar return to Kazmir are crazy. We'll get a real good player.

 

Think about it: Only one out of Kaz & Shark you want anchoring a playoff rotation. The other one s Scott f***ing Kazmir.

[Balta1701]

I think people saying Shark nets a similar return to Kazmir are crazy. We'll get a real good player.

 

Think about it: Only one out of Kaz & Shark you want anchoring a playoff rotation. The other one s Scott f***ing Kazmir.

I'm thinking about it and I'm just confused by this.

[iamshack]

I'm thinking about it and I'm just confused by this.

All I can think of is that Scott Kazmir was literally almost out of baseball for awhile...Shark has been on a pretty steady upward swing since his career began. This year he's shown a bit of struggles, but has been solid for 2 months now.