My How Things Have Changed in 4 Days

[spiderman]

After the Cleveland series, this team is definitely not a "seller" anymore. The only question is "are we a buyer?" Do we go out and get a bat? Or do we not mess with the outstanding chemistry this team has developed? I know its dangerous to mess with a roster that is already a World Series contender, but I'd really like to see us add someone who can hit 20 HRs and drive in 50 runs down the stretch. I really think this is the missing link that could insure us the first championship in 10 years. Let's experience the joy of 2005 over again in the coming months!

 

They are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Have things changed that much? When you're playing catch-up, playing .500 ball is probably not the way to do that.

 

They should be sellers, but there isn't much to sell outside of the obvious (Samardzjia).

[LDF]

it is the excitement of a team, this team in winning, that is deceiving our emotions. then when the trade deadline past, the anger will take over.

 

stay the course, make the necessary changes, as hard it is to do, it is the best in the future. if not, then the changes will need to be done via Free Agency.

[caulfield12]

Here's another thing to take into consideration.

 

The Twins still get to play four more series against the Indians, who some feel pretty much laid down and died this past weekend, which is more or less 21% of their remaining games.

 

Now, there's always a possibility Cleveland wakes up and decides to play spoiler over the final two months...but there's also a very real possibility they go into the tank and end up 12-18 games under .500 as well.

 

So far, Minnesota's 4-2 against the Indians, and they have 7 left to play in CLE, 6 at Target Field.

Edited July 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[oneofthemikes]

They are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Have things changed that much? When you're playing catch-up, playing .500 ball is probably not the way to do that.

 

They should be sellers, but there isn't much to sell outside of the obvious (Samardzjia).

 

I'll start by saying that I absolutely agree with you, they need to sell. That is the best move for the long term health of the organization. The problem is that, despite being 5-5 in their last 10, they're 13-8 in July. That's plenty good enough to play catch-up. But, I can't trust them to keep playing that way because they went 10-16 in June. It frustrates me to no end that anyone in this organization could even think about being buyers at the deadline.

[Dick Allen]

Is a B prospect for Samardzija really the best move for the "long term health" of the franchise? A win or two the next couple of days makes things more than interesting. Are the Sox coming out of hibernation? Probably not, but what if they are? Again, jumping teams is not that big of a deal because of the similar loss columns. The Sox just need to win games. They just need Minnesota to fade. Who knows, other teams fade as well. The 2005 White Sox faded quite a bit IIRC.

 

If teams want to give the White Sox a really nice prospect or 2 go for it. If it is a middle of the road guy, trade him in August when teams out of it won't claim him, and the team that probably needs him does.

 

If Forbes is to be believed, the White Sox don't need a salary dump. They claim the team has made a cumulative profit of $219 million since 2002.

[GreatScott82]

All focus needs to be on improving the team's chances for the future. The best way to do that is to obtain quality prospects by trading away veterans. Regardless of this recent sweep in Cleveland, this team is still bad. Don't let beating a very bad team confuse your thought process. The White Sox have been getting killed by the Twins and Royals all season long. The options are simple:

 

1) Trade Samardzija for prospects knowing that he will likely leave via free agency anyway.

2) Keep him, he signs elsewhere, the White Sox obtain a supplemental draft pick in next years MLB draft.

 

Option 1 is better because you would most likely get more than one prospect who is closer to being MLB ready. Those of you who are optimists, I'd say even if you trade Samardzija, Erik Johnson can be plugged right into the rotation and pick up where he left off down in Charlotte.

 

We have to be practical fans here and not let the emotion of a possible 'strong finish' get in the way. KW made this mistake time and time again as the GM of this team. I REALLLLY hope Hahn doesn't do this same thing.

[harkness99]

I agree with Dick...

 

This series with Boston will determine a lot... I'm thinking the coaching staff might even use this as a motivation (if the players care about being together)

 

If this team wants to stay together it has to keep winning.

 

If they lose the first two in Boston the sale begins.

Edited July 27, 2015 by harkness

[bmags]

I am hoping we trade samardjiza, but I'm honestly very intrigued by this past weekend. This was such a breath of fresh air to see offense over multiple games (against a good rotation). To see power, man. That was great.

 

So, if you guys could get a rental upgrade over one position, what would you choose/is there anyone you have in mind?

 

I have to think RF would be top priority for me, moving laroche to a platoon and avi with him.

 

Fully happy to let the saladino ride continue so we can have a better idea if we happened to stumble into a positive war 3rd baseman. Not sure there are many options for 3rd coming in FA for a while, and i've soured on FA after this year.

[caulfield12]

Is a B prospect for Samardzija really the best move for the "long term health" of the franchise? A win or two the next couple of days makes things more than interesting. Are the Sox coming out of hibernation? Probably not, but what if they are? Again, jumping teams is not that big of a deal because of the similar loss columns. The Sox just need to win games. They just need Minnesota to fade. Who knows, other teams fade as well. The 2005 White Sox faded quite a bit IIRC.

 

If teams want to give the White Sox a really nice prospect or 2 go for it. If it is a middle of the road guy, trade him in August when teams out of it won't claim him, and the team that probably needs him does.

 

If Forbes is to be believed, the White Sox don't need a salary dump. They claim the team has made a cumulative profit of $219 million since 2002.

 

The White Sox were 68-35 heading into August, 2005.

 

They went a disappointing 12-16 in August and let the Indians back into it, then put up a 19-12 September. 31-28 out of the Twins wouldn't be THAT difficult to overcome, but that would mean the White Sox would have to play 13 games over .500 for the remainder of the season.

 

As far as Samardzija making it through waivers, that will never happen, not with his salary being relatively low. He would be blocked at some point and withdrawn...not only that, you're limiting yourself to negotiating with one team using that strategy.

 

If the proposed trade gives you talent somewhere between the Kazmir and Cueto deals (and probably closer to Kazmir, although another no-hitter from a trade candidate on Tuesday wouldn't hurt), you have to make the move.

 

 

The White Sox took on essentially $145 million in additional contract obligations this past off-season for a slew of players.

 

That won't even get you in the door of the Heyward negotiations.

 

Does anyone believe they're going to double down and spend more than $150 million in NEW commitments again this offseason?

 

That MIGHT, if you're very very lucky, get you Wieters and Gordon/Cespedes, but even then you're still probably $25-35 million short.

 

Does anyone believe we'd be a division favorite with those two guys added (LaRoche would have to be dealt to move Avi to DH or Avi would simply hit only against LHP, PH/PR and occasional outfield work)?

 

Once again, we'd be in that dubious territory of adding "over 30ish" players to long-term contracts instead of building a young core.

 

 

 

 

 

[oneofthemikes]

Is a B prospect for Samardzija really the best move for the "long term health" of the franchise? A win or two the next couple of days makes things more than interesting. Are the Sox coming out of hibernation? Probably not, but what if they are? Again, jumping teams is not that big of a deal because of the similar loss columns. The Sox just need to win games. They just need Minnesota to fade. Who knows, other teams fade as well. The 2005 White Sox faded quite a bit IIRC.

 

If teams want to give the White Sox a really nice prospect or 2 go for it. If it is a middle of the road guy, trade him in August when teams out of it won't claim him, and the team that probably needs him does.

 

If Forbes is to be believed, the White Sox don't need a salary dump. They claim the team has made a cumulative profit of $219 million since 2002.

 

No, I'm not saying that they should trade him for any warm body that a team is willing to part with. If the trade is a fair value and net a nice return, do it. If they were to decide not to sell, they need to stand pat. I can't see a scenario where it would be beneficial at all to become buyers. Developing a "go for it" mentality after a nice weekend series is the worst thing they could do.

 

You're right, the Sox did fade in 2005. They had a ~15 game lead at the beginning of August and ended up winning by 1 or 2 games. But that had as much to do with Cleveland not losing as it did with the Sox fading out. Cleveland put together a fairly absurd run in the last couple months.

[Jose Abreu]

At this point, I think no move is the best move. A comp pick for Samardzija could be better than what we'd expect, and this way, we'd let our own players decide if we're going for it or not.

[Jose Abreu]

I am hoping we trade samardjiza, but I'm honestly very intrigued by this past weekend. This was such a breath of fresh air to see offense over multiple games (against a good rotation). To see power, man. That was great.

 

So, if you guys could get a rental upgrade over one position, what would you choose/is there anyone you have in mind?

I have to think RF would be top priority for me, moving laroche to a platoon and avi with him.

 

Fully happy to let the saladino ride continue so we can have a better idea if we happened to stumble into a positive war 3rd baseman. Not sure there are many options for 3rd coming in FA for a while, and i've soured on FA after this year.

I think we desperately need a DH who can hit LHP.

[spiderman]

Here's another thing to take into consideration.

 

The Twins still get to play four more series against the Indians, who some feel pretty much laid down and died this past weekend, which is more or less 21% of their remaining games.

 

Now, there's always a possibility Cleveland wakes up and decides to play spoiler over the final two months...but there's also a very real possibility they go into the tank and end up 12-18 games under .500 as well.

 

So far, Minnesota's 4-2 against the Indians, and they have 7 left to play in CLE, 6 at Target Field.

 

Good point although I still don't trust the Twins down the stretch.

[Dick Allen]

The White Sox were 68-35 heading into August, 2005.

 

They went a disappointing 12-16 in August and let the Indians back into it, then put up a 19-12 September. 31-28 out of the Twins wouldn't be THAT difficult to overcome, but that would mean the White Sox would have to play 13 games over .500 for the remainder of the season.

 

As far as Samardzija making it through waivers, that will never happen, not with his salary being relatively low. He would be blocked at some point and withdrawn...not only that, you're limiting yourself to negotiating with one team using that strategy.

 

If the proposed trade gives you talent somewhere between the Kazmir and Cueto deals (and probably closer to Kazmir, although another no-hitter from a trade candidate on Tuesday wouldn't hurt), you have to make the move.

 

 

The White Sox took on essentially $145 million in additional contract obligations this past off-season for a slew of players.

 

That won't even get you in the door of the Heyward negotiations.

 

Does anyone believe they're going to double down and spend more than $150 million in NEW commitments again this offseason?

 

That MIGHT, if you're very very lucky, get you Wieters and Gordon/Cespedes, but even then you're still probably $25-35 million short.

 

Does anyone believe we'd be a division favorite with those two guys added (LaRoche would have to be dealt to move Avi to DH or Avi would simply hit only against LHP, PH/PR and occasional outfield work)?

 

Once again, we'd be in that dubious territory of adding "over 30ish" players to long-term contracts instead of building a young core.

 

Once again, you miss the point entirely because you like to read the BS you write. Trading Samardzija depends on the return. They don't need to dump money. There are no 2005 White Sox teams the 2015 White Sox are now competing with to make the playoffs. If the Sox win 3 of 4 in Boston, they will be looking pretty decent. What would not be good for the long term health of the team is trading Samardzija to Toronto for a bust and having the Blue Jays finish a game or 2 ahead of the White Sox for the final playoff spot. The season is still got some time left in it. 4 games in the loss column separates the Sox and Minnesota. One game in the loss column separates the White Sox and Baltimore. All the other teams vying for the final spot have at least as many losses as the White Sox. The improved defense has made a difference. If the offense kicks it into gear, the playoffs are not a long shot.

[Buehrlesque]

Is a B prospect for Samardzija really the best move for the "long term health" of the franchise? A win or two the next couple of days makes things more than interesting. Are the Sox coming out of hibernation? Probably not, but what if they are? Again, jumping teams is not that big of a deal because of the similar loss columns. The Sox just need to win games. They just need Minnesota to fade. Who knows, other teams fade as well. The 2005 White Sox faded quite a bit IIRC.

 

If teams want to give the White Sox a really nice prospect or 2 go for it. If it is a middle of the road guy, trade him in August when teams out of it won't claim him, and the team that probably needs him does.

 

If Forbes is to be believed, the White Sox don't need a salary dump. They claim the team has made a cumulative profit of $219 million since 2002.

 

Keep in mind that this is a team that has played just shy of 100 games at this point. Judging any team that far into a season based only on a one-week stretch — good or bad — is short-sighted. So I don't think it's right to say, "If they take three of four from Boston, do X; if they take two of four, do Y." (Besides, didn't a lot of people say the same thing about the Royals series?) It's just one or two games out of 162.

 

It's not unlikely at all, to me, that the Sox could start playing better and decrease their deficit in the WC race. But they have a crazy slim margin for error. It's not enough to go on a hot streak, that just gets them back in the race. They then have to not go on a cold streak the rest of the way to actually beat the other teams. With the uncertainty about their up-til-this-week historically bad offense, I don't think it's a good bet that they'd actually pass six teams. MLB.com gives it a 5.2% chance. That's not scientific, but it's not a number out of the blue either.

 

...All that said, there's not that much upside to selling anyway. Barring any Sale or Quintana blockbusters (which I personally don't think the Sox would do anyway), the only guy worth a damn at all is Samardzija, and the return for him probably won't be anything that really enhances the team's chances in 2016 anyway. If someone really wants to overpay for Samardzija, I'm still all for trading him. But otherwise, it's really six one way half a dozen the other.

[oneofthemikes]

All focus needs to be on improving the team's chances for the future. The best way to do that is to obtain quality prospects by trading away veterans. Regardless of this recent sweep in Cleveland, this team is still bad. Don't let beating a very bad team confuse your thought process. The White Sox have been getting killed by the Twins and Royals all season long. The options are simple:

 

1) Trade Samardzija for prospects knowing that he will likely leave via free agency anyway.

2) Keep him, he signs elsewhere, the White Sox obtain a supplemental draft pick in next years MLB draft.

 

Option 1 is better because you would most likely get more than one prospect who is closer to being MLB ready. Those of you who are optimists, I'd say even if you trade Samardzija, Erik Johnson can be plugged right into the rotation and pick up where he left off down in Charlotte.

 

We have to be practical fans here and not let the emotion of a possible 'strong finish' get in the way. KW made this mistake time and time again as the GM of this team. I REALLLLY hope Hahn doesn't do this same thing.

 

This is astonishingly close to being exactly how I feel about this team at the moment. Well said!

[spiderman]

I agree with Dick...

 

This series with Boston will determine a lot... I'm thinking the coaching staff might even use this as a motivation (if the players care about being together)

 

If this team wants to stay together it has to keep winning.

 

If they lose the first two in Boston the sale begins.

 

This is probably true; if they lose 3 out of 4, they will sell. I'm not sure what splitting a series means though to how the organization would think.

[caulfield12]

I am hoping we trade samardjiza, but I'm honestly very intrigued by this past weekend. This was such a breath of fresh air to see offense over multiple games (against a good rotation). To see power, man. That was great.

 

So, if you guys could get a rental upgrade over one position, what would you choose/is there anyone you have in mind?

 

I have to think RF would be top priority for me, moving laroche to a platoon and avi with him.

 

Fully happy to let the saladino ride continue so we can have a better idea if we happened to stumble into a positive war 3rd baseman. Not sure there are many options for 3rd coming in FA for a while, and i've soured on FA after this year.

 

 

Detroit's not going to trade us Cespedes, so Bruce and Ethier are two of the better options, with the main problem being that it's a huge risk to take on NL bats midyear and be forced to hope something clicks and they don't need the remainder of the season for a league adjustment.

 

Upton's going to be too expensive in terms of prospected surrendered for the potential reward.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

This is probably true; if they lose 3 out of 4, they will sell. I'm not sure what splitting a series means though to how the organization would think.

Again, the other huge factor is what you would get back. No need trading Samardzija for anything less than pretty much guaranteed future White Sox starting position player(s) or useful pitchers, not Charlotte Knights, is what is best for the team. If not, hang on to him, grab the pick.

[caulfield12]

Once again, you miss the point entirely because you like to read the BS you write. Trading Samardzija depends on the return. They don't need to dump money. There are no 2005 White Sox teams the 2015 White Sox are now competing with to make the playoffs. If the Sox win 3 of 4 in Boston, they will be looking pretty decent. What would not be good for the long term health of the team is trading Samardzija to Toronto for a bust and having the Blue Jays finish a game or 2 ahead of the White Sox for the final playoff spot. The season is still got some time left in it. 4 games in the loss column separates the Sox and Minnesota. One game in the loss column separates the White Sox and Baltimore. All the other teams vying for the final spot have at least as many losses as the White Sox. The improved defense has made a difference. If the offense kicks it into gear, the playoffs are not a long shot.

 

 

And your BS line is that the fanbase will be so demoralized when that happens that nobody will ever buy season tickets again (except for yourself as the "one true fan") and that the only coverage you'll ever hear about the White Sox again on the SCORE will be White Flag 2 and how the White Sox blew a great opportunity to start Chris Sale in a wild card game at Houston or LA.

 

If the White Sox actually wanted to compete and not be torn down, they would have played better against the Royals coming out of the All-Star Break. 1-5 in those first 6 games wasn't enough. All they had to do was go 3-3 and they'd now be at the .500 mark and a lot more fans might be willing to buy your argument/s.

 

At any rate, I'll be expecting Reinsdorf to spend $219 million now, so there's that, thanks!

 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Since the 0-4 start in Kansas City, The White Sox are 46-46.

[Dick Allen]

And your BS line is that the fanbase will be so demoralized when that happens that nobody will ever buy season tickets again (except for yourself as the "one true fan") and that the only coverage you'll ever hear about the White Sox again on the SCORE will be White Flag 2 and how the White Sox blew a great opportunity to start Chris Sale in a wild card game at Houston or LA.

 

If the White Sox actually wanted to compete and not be torn down, they would have played better against the Royals coming out of the All-Star Break. 1-5 in those first 6 games wasn't enough. All they had to do was go 3-3 and they'd now be at the .500 mark and a lot more fans might be willing to buy your argument/s.

 

At any rate, I'll be expecting Reinsdorf to spend $219 million now, so there's that, thanks!

Wow.

 

Get help.

[caulfield12]

Again, the other huge factor is what you would get back. No need trading Samardzija for anything less than pretty much guaranteed future White Sox starting position player(s) or useful pitchers, not Charlotte Knights, is what is best for the team. If not, hang on to him, grab the pick.

 

 

Brilliant!

 

Except when your talent evaluators pick guys like Matt Davidson and Avisail Garcia, two more guys who were "guaranteed future starting position players" at the time of their acquisition/s. Both will probably be jettisoned out of the organization by the end of 2016.

 

 

"Wow. Get help."

 

That's honestly the best you can come up with? Perhaps the most tepid attempt at a backhanded personal attack that doesn't technically meet the definition of attacking someone (other than saying whatever other posters argue is BS or LMAO or similar cute acronyms) this season.

Edited July 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[OmarComing25]

Even if we sweep Boston, I'm still on the fence as to whether we should trade Samardzija. We need to evaluate Erik Johnson for next season and if Jeff stays we lose that opportunity. But some guys on the offense are coming around.

 

Last 30 days:

 

Melky: 0.9 WAR (30th best in baseball)

Sanchez: 0.5 WAR

Eaton: 0.4 WAR

Soto: 0.4 WAR (please play him more over Flowers)

Alexei: 0.3 WAR

 

However:

 

Flowers: -0.2 WAR

Avi: -0.4 WAR

LaRoche: -1.1 WAR (if we could play him less, that'd be great)

Edited July 27, 2015 by OmarComing25

[pettie4sox]

The Sox cannot bat Avi and LaRoche in the same lineup. I think if you can somehow tinker with the hitting order and the pitching stays good; there is a small chance. I would say if they can add a average MLB for DH this lineup gets a lot better.