Jump to content

AL Central: 2015 and Beyond


Dunt

Recommended Posts

With the trade deadline nearing and today's MLB preseason top 100 list being released, I think it's interesting to take a step back and look at the AL Central. The Royals have set themselves up really nicely for a serious October run this season. Unfortunately for them, this move has emptied out their farm of all but one top 100 prospect. The Tigers, who have largely dominate the division for the last half decade, are old, expensive, and tired. They currently dont even own a top 100 prospect. Tough times ahead for Detroit, especially if they dont sell this season. Minnesota is good this season, but is expected to fade down the stretch. They also have a stable of excellent prospects (7 top 100) that should be making an impact in the majors soon. They could be very tough for the Sox again in the near future. Finally, Cleveland strikes me as very similar to the Sox in many ways. Excellent pitching, some nice position player pieces, awful defense, but largely an unfinished, underperforming product. In addition, they only have 2 top 100 prospects in their system. This leads me to the current state of the White Sox.

 

For however painful this season has been, I dont think the Sox are in nearly as bad of position as we all think. The Sox should have a middle of the pack to upper third farm system with a potential of 3 early picks coming in the next draft. They have a young pitching staff locked up with some reinforcements on the way in Fulmer, Montas, and Johnson. They have some position players that are cornerstone players moving forward over the next few years (Abreu, Eaton, Melky). With some smart deadline and offseason moves, it's very realistic they can be a playoff team next season and the years following. Thoughts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MIN > Sox > CLEV > KC > DET

 

in terms of 5-7 year outlook IMO

 

Min has an incredible farm system.

 

We have an extremely strong pitching rotation with some young core hitters.

 

KC is blowing up their farm to win this year/next year, and will likely lose many pieces from their bullpen and Alex Gordon. They also have little in terms of long term pitching value.

 

DET is aging extremely fast, saddled with huge contracts, and little farm talent.

Edited by staxx
Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (staxx @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 04:56 PM)
MIN > Sox > CLEV > KC > DET

in terms of 5-7 year outlook IMO

 

Min has an incredible farm system.

 

We have an extremely strong pitching rotation with some young core hitters.

 

KC is blowing up their farm to win this year/next year, and will likely lose many pieces from their bullpen and Alex Gordon. They also have little in terms of long term pitching value.

 

DET is aging extremely fast, saddled with huge contracts, and little farm talent.

Agree with all, however maybe flip us with Cleveland in what I bolded

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 10:17 PM)
Agree with all, however maybe flip us with Cleveland in what I bolded

 

as of right now, it may be right, however if the sox do trade for the missing pieces to make a run at the playoff, then i can see them drop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (staxx @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 03:56 PM)
MIN > Sox > CLEV > KC > DET

 

in terms of 5-7 year outlook IMO

 

Min has an incredible farm system.

 

We have an extremely strong pitching rotation with some young core hitters.

 

KC is blowing up their farm to win this year/next year, and will likely lose many pieces from their bullpen and Alex Gordon. They also have little in terms of long term pitching value.

 

DET is aging extremely fast, saddled with huge contracts, and little farm talent.

 

 

Who are the young core hitters? Eaton and Abreu, basically.

 

Are you already counting Sanchez and Saladino?

 

 

As far as the Royals go, they'll have Volquez, Duffy, Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, Medlen....a free agent signing, and probably one of Guthrie/Blanton/Chris Young/Hochevar as the long man but they're undoubtedly going to get another starter before next season.

 

I'm not sure where this idea of losing many pieces of the bullpen is coming from, they'll still have their core set-up guys in Escobar and Davis. Davis will make $8 million in 2016, and $10 million in 2017 (those are club options with with a $2.5 million buyout in 2017). They have Herrera for next season at $2.55 million. Holland has been very shaky for the last two months and might be replaced.

 

They are stuck with Jason Vargas' deal for 2016, but if he misses the full season, they'll get 35-40% back in insurance payments.

 

There's a $10 million mutual option on Medlen with a $1 million buyout.

 

 

Fwiw, their recent first rounder (Ashe Russell) was somewhere in the 90's, and then there's Mondesi, so still two Top 100 guys, barely.

Edited by caulfield12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 06:29 PM)
Who are the young core hitters? Eaton and Abreu, basically.

 

Are you already counting Sanchez and Saladino?

 

 

As far as the Royals go, they'll have Volquez, Duffy, Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, Medlen....a free agent signing, and probably one of Guthrie/Blanton/Chris Young/Hochevar as the long man but they're undoubtedly going to get another starter before next season.

 

I'm not sure where this idea of losing many pieces of the bullpen is coming from, they'll still have their core set-up guys in Escobar and Davis. Davis will make $8 million in 2016, and $10 million in 2017 (those are club options with with a $2.5 million buyout in 2017). They have Herrera for next season at $2.55 million. Holland has been very shaky for the last two months and might be replaced.

 

They are stuck with Jason Vargas' deal for 2016, but if he misses the full season, they'll get 35-40% back in insurance payments.

 

There's a $10 million mutual option on Medlen with a $1 million buyout.

 

 

Fwiw, their recent first rounder (Ashe Russell) was somewhere in the 90's, and then there's Mondesi, so still two Top 100 guys, barely.

 

Abreu/Eaton is a pretty good start. Avi still has great potential 5-7 years from now and we'll likely add another bat just like the Royals will add a pitcher. Medlen isn't doing anything crazy for the Royals and Volquez isn't anything special. Zimmer has proven nothing and Ventura seems like he is a head case.

 

They'll have a solid core with Perez and Hosmer for a while. I just believe that we have a better outlook.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (staxx @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 06:02 PM)
Abreu/Eaton is a pretty good start. Avi still has great potential 5-7 years from now and we'll likely add another bat just like the Royals will add a pitcher. Medlen isn't doing anything crazy for the Royals and Volquez isn't anything special. Zimmer has proven nothing and Ventura seems like he is a head case.

 

They'll have a solid core with Perez and Hosmer for a while. I just believe that we have a better outlook.

 

 

If you compare cores, though....Moustakas, Cain, Escobar, Perez and Hosmer, all in their primes, there's not much of a comparison.

 

We have Eaton, Abreu and Cabrera (31 next year).

 

 

Yes, Medlen and Hochevar are struggling, but that's to be expected your first half season back when recovering from TJ surgery.

 

They were both brought on board with 2016 in mind, although the jury's out on whether the Royals will want to pay Medlen $10 million (mutual option).

 

Zimmer is a work in progress and has battled injury problems, that's true as well.

 

 

 

The other key factor to consider is that the Royals have long-term solutions for C, 3B, SS and CF, the four most important positions on the field right now to find impact players in this offensively-challenged environment. All four of those guys, along with Hosmer are equally good offensively and defensively. Avi Garcia at his best isn't the equal of Cain or Eaton for this very reason.

 

We have Adam Eaton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you compare cores, though....Moustakas, Cain, Escobar, Perez and Hosmer, all in their primes, there's not much of a comparison.

 

We have Eaton, Abreu and Cabrera (31 next year).

 

 

Yes, Medlen and Hochevar are struggling, but that's to be expected your first half season back when recovering from TJ surgery.

 

They were both brought on board with 2016 in mind, although the jury's out on whether the Royals will want to pay Medlen $10 million (mutual option).

 

Zimmer is a work in progress and has battled injury problems, that's true as well.

 

 

 

The other key factor to consider is that the Royals have long-term solutions for C, 3B, SS and CF, the four most important positions on the field right now to find impact players in this offensively-challenged environment. All four of those guys, along with Hosmer are equally good offensively and defensively. Avi Garcia at his best isn't the equal of Cain or Eaton for this very reason.

 

We have Adam Eaton.

 

I don't know WTF you're talking about.

 

The Royals have been winning because they BELIEVE they can. Confidience in each other, and playing the game.

 

That's it.

 

There is NOTHING remarkable about the f***ing Royals outside of them getting their s*** together, realizing their a bunch of priviliged kids, and playing the game like it owes them $.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Ballz-n-Strikes @ Jul 29, 2015 -> 12:59 AM)
I don't know WTF you're talking about.

 

The Royals have been winning because they BELIEVE they can. Confidience in each other, and playing the game.

 

That's it.

 

There is NOTHING remarkable about the f***ing Royals outside of them getting their s*** together, realizing their a bunch of priviliged kids, and playing the game like it owes them $.

Are you saying that they have "the will to win"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 28, 2015 -> 08:59 PM)
If you compare cores, though....Moustakas, Cain, Escobar, Perez and Hosmer, all in their primes, there's not much of a comparison.

 

We have Eaton, Abreu and Cabrera (31 next year).

 

 

Yes, Medlen and Hochevar are struggling, but that's to be expected your first half season back when recovering from TJ surgery.

 

They were both brought on board with 2016 in mind, although the jury's out on whether the Royals will want to pay Medlen $10 million (mutual option).

 

Zimmer is a work in progress and has battled injury problems, that's true as well.

 

 

 

The other key factor to consider is that the Royals have long-term solutions for C, 3B, SS and CF, the four most important positions on the field right now to find impact players in this offensively-challenged environment. All four of those guys, along with Hosmer are equally good offensively and defensively. Avi Garcia at his best isn't the equal of Cain or Eaton for this very reason.

 

We have Adam Eaton.

 

Crazy stat. Salvador Perez 2015: 1.3 WAR Geovany Soto 2015 season: 1.0 WAR

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.startribune.com/let-s-make-a-de...-old/319190381/

 

This columnist is pushing for an Arcia for Benoit deal with the Padres.

 

 

From 1998 through 2007, he (GM Terry Ryan) made a series of trades that might be unprecedented in baseball history. He dealt the proverbial bags of baseballs for the following players: David Ortiz, Joe Mays, Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton, Kyle Lohse, Johan Santana, Lew Ford, Rick Reed, Jason Bartlett, Shannon Stewart, Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, Carlos Silva, Nick Punto and Luis Castillo.

 

Ten of those players made an All-Star team. One who didn’t finished in the top five in an MVP vote.

 

Ryan returned to the job in November of 2011. He’s had almost four years to make a deal reminiscent of his former self.

He has traded for Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Escobar, Tommy Milone, some cash and a lot of minor-league filler.

 

This week, Ryan gets to show off his former strength. He has a good team, a flexible payroll, an obvious need and a deep farm system. He should be able to land a hard-throwing reliever if nothing more.

 

 

Also notes how almost none of the World Series winners made acquisitions that were all that helpful (mentions Peavy twice, haha), other than Dave Roberts and Geoff Blum.

Edited by caulfield12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 29, 2015 -> 12:09 AM)
Crazy stat. Salvador Perez 2015: 1.3 WAR Geovany Soto 2015 season: 1.0 WAR

 

 

Perez started out the year hot and has cooled offensively.

 

It seems his defense and caught stealing percentages have fallen off a bit...that's a pretty weird stat, considering he made the All-Star team and not very many argued much about it.

 

Once again, goes to show the overall weakness of the position in the major leagues, with some obvious exceptions like Posey, Molina, Russell Martin, Yan Gomes (when healthy), etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 29, 2015 -> 01:13 AM)
Perez started out the year hot and has cooled offensively.

 

It seems his defense and caught stealing percentages have fallen off a bit...that's a pretty weird stat, considering he made the All-Star team and not very many argued much about it.

 

Once again, goes to show the overall weakness of the position in the major leagues, with some obvious exceptions like Posey, Molina, Russell Martin, Yan Gomes (when healthy), etc.

 

 

wOBA of .297 with an .OPS under .700. Defensive WAR is carrying him despite his 15 homers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 29, 2015 -> 12:16 AM)
wOBA of .297 with an .OPS under .700. Defensive WAR is carrying him despite his 15 homers.

 

 

And yet even with those relatively tepid stats he's so important to the Royals they wouldn't trade him for Anderson, Montas and Hawkins.

 

Only if Fulmer was included would it even be a discussion in their front office.

 

He has that five year contract for $7 million, even more of a bargain to them than Sale and Quintana to the Sox.

Edited by caulfield12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...