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Wild Card Watch 2015


BigHurt3515

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If the Sox aren't helping themselves, they're definitely helping out the rest, like the Rangers and Orioles. The more the Sox beat the Angels, the lower the number for the second wildcard could be.

 

It would really be annoying (as a Sox fan) if a few teams land on 84-78, and the Sox just miss out by 3 or 4 games.

 

It would be fun as a baseball fan the final week of the season though.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 11:43 AM)
I haven't watched since Sunday - probably the first back to back games I haven't watched a second of (other than highlights) this season. This weekend really killed it for me, and I just need a couple days off of the frustration. But a win tonight (I will be watching), and my excitement will pique a bit. But really, the chances are so very slim, and this team hasn't given me much to believe that their last 50 games will be somewhere in the ballpark of 15-20 games over .500, because that is likely what they'll need. Can they go 34-17 for 87 wins? Or maybe 32-19 for 85? I don't think 85 gets it done.

 

What has really killed it for me is Toronto just running away. There is now pretty much only 1 WC spot up for grabs - two weeks ago I would have said the same thing though - but with LAAA firmly in. Things can change, but i don't see Toronto going 23-25 or worse to close out the year.

 

Toronto is going to be running away with that division not the wildcard, so we are chasing two teams. I am not sold on the Yankees playing so well late into the season as they have begun to struggle.

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QUOTE (kapzk @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 12:52 PM)
Toronto is going to be running away with that division not the wildcard, so we are chasing two teams. I am not sold on the Yankees playing so well late into the season as they have begun to struggle.

 

True. The Yanks pitching is bad without Pineda, but that offense. I think the Yankees will win more than 87 games.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 02:57 PM)
Win today and I'll still have some hope....yes we got swept by the Royals, but they weren't destroyed by them in any game. A loss is a loss but they still only lost each game by 1 run.

So what if they "only" lost by one run in each game. They also had key blunders like the Soto pickoff. The WC window has closed. Even if the team somehow creeps to one under .500 again, it just as quickly will lose the next four to get where the team is most comfy -- about six under .500. That's how this team flies. It doesn't like to compete. It just kind of hangs out.

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Let's just call it 85 wins as the magic number.

 

Yankees: Older team, questionable pitching staff - 61-50, just like everybody else have to play their own division the most the last month of the season. Not going into details, dont know their actual schedule, but that means the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tampa (who is getting Smyly back). Think it will be tough to realistically catch the first WC spot though. 24-27 would equal an 85 win season -- doesn't seem that out of the question.

 

Rest of the East: Like mentioned right above - those teams all have to play each other -- you'd hope one team (Toronto) wins the majority of their games and the rest of the teams beat each other up. Preferably everybody beats up on the Yankees, or we just concede that one spot of the Wild Card is unattainable. Baltimore would have to go 28-22 in their final 50 to get to 85 wins. TB 28-21 in their final 49. With these teams hopefully beating each other up -- and maybe some help from BOS? Those don't seem too crazy.

 

LAA: CJ Wilson is done for year, they can't win on the road lately, in a funk, and have 4 upcoming against the Royals. 26-24 would get them to 85 wins over their final 50 games. Let's say we win tonight, and sweep, and then they lose 3 of 4 to the Royals. They'd have to 25-20 in their final 45 games to get to 85. Again, playing the West the final month. Which I would call easier.

 

Texas: 51 games left. 30-21 to get to 85 wins. We all know their holes. But they do have Hamels now. I think you have to include them, especially when they are playing SEA and OAK over the final month.

 

Houston: 24-24 over their last 48 to get to 85 wins. Can safely assume it will happen.

 

White Sox: 51 games left. Would have to go 32-19 to get to 85 wins. TOUGH. VERY TOUGH. We have 6 against the Royals in there too, 3 against the Cubs, 4 against the Yankees ..... BUT also we play in the weakest division right now. Tigers, Cleveland, Minny may be out of it. May be playing young guys. Who knows.

 

I'm saying 85 wins does it this year for the second spot.

 

 

 

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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 08:58 PM)
Let's just call it 85 wins as the magic number.

 

Yankees: Older team, questionable pitching staff - 61-50, just like everybody else have to play their own division the most the last month of the season. Not going into details, dont know their actual schedule, but that means the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tampa (who is getting Smyly back). Think it will be tough to realistically catch the first WC spot though. 24-27 would equal an 85 win season -- doesn't seem that out of the question.

 

Rest of the East: Like mentioned right above - those teams all have to play each other -- you'd hope one team (Toronto) wins the majority of their games and the rest of the teams beat each other up. Preferably everybody beats up on the Yankees, or we just concede that one spot of the Wild Card is unattainable. Baltimore would have to go 28-22 in their final 50 to get to 85 wins. TB 28-21 in their final 49. With these teams hopefully beating each other up -- and maybe some help from BOS? Those don't seem too crazy.

 

LAA: CJ Wilson is done for year, they can't win on the road lately, in a funk, and have 4 upcoming against the Royals. 26-24 would get them to 85 wins over their final 50 games. Let's say we win tonight, and sweep, and then they lose 3 of 4 to the Royals. They'd have to 25-20 in their final 45 games to get to 85. Again, playing the West the final month. Which I would call easier.

 

Texas: 51 games left. 30-21 to get to 85 wins. We all know their holes. But they do have Hamels now. I think you have to include them, especially when they are playing SEA and OAK over the final month.

 

Houston: 24-24 over their last 48 to get to 85 wins. Can safely assume it will happen.

 

White Sox: 51 games left. Would have to go 32-19 to get to 85 wins. TOUGH. VERY TOUGH. We have 6 against the Royals in there too, 3 against the Cubs, 4 against the Yankees ..... BUT also we play in the weakest division right now. Tigers, Cleveland, Minny may be out of it. May be playing young guys. Who knows.

 

I'm saying 85 wins does it this year for the second spot.

 

Six more against the Royals? My god. Baseball's unbalanced schedule is a travesty. That's five more losses right there.

 

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 03:19 PM)
Six more against the Royals? My god. Baseball's unbalanced schedule is a travesty. That's five more losses right there.

 

You play every team in your division the same amount of times (19), as does every team in the division. So you continue to be clueless.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 03:33 PM)
You play every team in your division the same amount of times (19), as does every team in the division. So you continue to be clueless.

 

Regardless, the unbalanced schedule is a travesty. So is divisional play.

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QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 12, 2015 -> 03:48 PM)
Regardless, the unbalanced schedule is a travesty. So is divisional play.

 

I agree that unbalanced schedules are an absolute joke. But the Royals aren't part of the unbalanced schedules among division foes.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 13, 2015 -> 11:05 PM)
The Royals bullpen is finally human!!! I hope it continues, their rotation can't carry them.

 

Actually we don't want their bullpen to falter... we want them to beat the Angels.

 

Now we are 5 back instead of 4.5... not that we really have a chance but its nice to pretend.

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QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 2, 2015 -> 07:28 PM)
Next 4 series:

 

LAA 55-49, 3 vs Cle, 3 vs Bal, 3 at Sox, 4 at KC

Min 54-50, 4 at Tor, 3 at Cle, 3 vs Tex, 3 vs Cle

Bal 53-51, 3 at Oak, 3 at LAA, 3 at Sea, 4 vs Oak

Tor 54-52, 4 vs Min, 3 at NY, 3 vs Oak, 3 vs NY

TB 52-54, 3 at Sox, 3 vs NYM, 2 vs Atl, 3 at Tex

Tex 51-53, 3 vs Hou, 3 at Sea, 3 at Min, 3 vs TB

Det 51-54, 3 vs KC, 3 vs Bos, 3 at KC, 3 at Hou

Sox 50-53, 3 vs TB, 3 at KC, 3 vs LAA, 3 vs Cubs

 

A 9-3 run wouldn't hurt right about now.

 

Sox need to win games, Twins to fall apart, and the Orioles to have a bad west coast trip the next two weeks.

 

Instead of 9-3, the Sox went 5-7. Here's what everyone else did the last two weeks (in bold), and what's coming up the next two weeks:

 

Tor 65-54 (11-2) - 2 at Phi, 3 at LAA, 3 at Tex, 3 vs Det

Bal 61-56 (8-5) - 2 vs NYM, 4 vs Min, 4 at KC, 3 at Tex

LAA 60-57 (5-8) - 4 vs Chi, 3 vs Tor, 3 at Det, 3 at Cle

Tex 59-57 (8-4) - 3 vs Sea, 4 at Det, 3 vs Tor, 3 vs Bal

Min 59-58 (5-8) - 3 at NY, 4 at Bal, 3 at TB, 3 vs Hou

TB 58-59 (6-5) - 4 at Hou, 3 at Oak, 3 vs Min, 3 vs KC

Det 56-61 (5-7) - 2 at Cubs, 4 vs Tex, 1 at Cin, 3 vs LAA, 3 at Tor

Sox 55-60 (5-7) - 4 at LAA, 3 at Sea, 3 vs Bos, 4 vs Sea

 

Orioles with the second wildcard spot, on pace for 84 wins (or 85 if you round up).

 

 

Edited by flavum
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QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 17, 2015 -> 08:46 AM)
Instead of 9-3, the Sox went 5-7. Here's what everyone else did the last two weeks (in bold), and what's coming up the next two weeks:

 

Tor 65-54 (11-2) - 2 at Phi, 3 at LAA, 3 at Tex, 3 vs Det

Bal 60-56 (7-5) - 2 vs NYM, 4 vs Min, 4 at KC, 3 at Tex

LAA 60-57 (5-8) - 4 vs Chi, 3 vs Tor, 3 at Det, 3 at Cle

Tex 59-57 (8-4) - 3 vs Sea, 4 at Det, 3 vs Tor, 3 vs Bal

Min 59-58 (5-8) - 3 at NY, 4 at Bal, 3 at TB, 3 vs Hou

TB 58-59 (6-5) - 4 at Hou, 3 at Oak, 3 vs Min, 3 vs KC

Det 56-61 (5-7) - 2 at Cubs, 4 vs Tex, 1 at Cin, 3 vs LAA, 3 at Tor

Sox 55-60 (5-7) - 4 at LAA, 3 at Sea, 3 vs Bos, 4 vs Sea

 

Orioles with the second wildcard spot, on pace for 83 wins (or 84 if you round up).

 

If 84 is the number, the Sox would have to go 29-18. Not impossible, but unlikely.

We always kill any momentum we get. That's been a huge issue. I'm ready for the offseason. This team just needs to get to about 80 wins. Keep showing improvement.

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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Aug 17, 2015 -> 08:53 AM)
We always kill any momentum we get. That's been a huge issue. I'm ready for the offseason. This team just needs to get to about 80 wins. Keep showing improvement.

 

No offense, but anything short of the postseason is a disappointment. There's no moral victory in just having a higher win total than last year.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Aug 22, 2015 -> 06:11 AM)
It's really going to suck if a team gets a wildcard spot with 83 wins, that'd be such a huge missed opportunity.

As bad as this team is and has been, it's only five back in WC. I am not dumb enough to expect a WC run but like you said, what a missed opportunity. So many games just wasted.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Aug 22, 2015 -> 01:11 AM)
It's really going to suck if a team gets a wildcard spot with 83 wins, that'd be such a huge missed opportunity.

 

With this rotation? Absolutely. I feel like the Sox are a team that could easily win the World Series, but they aren't good enough to make the playoffs. If that makes sense.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 23, 2015 -> 12:46 AM)
With this rotation? Absolutely. I feel like the Sox are a team that could easily win the World Series, but they aren't good enough to make the playoffs. If that makes sense.

 

I agree. If they just made the playoffs and every tam they played got caught deflating the baseballs they could win it all.

 

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