ChiSox59 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:08 AM) I do believe the White Sox have been careful. Seeing at who has been discussed, there have been plenty of chances for the Sox to jump in and throw caution to the wind. But they haven't. This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:17 AM) What does this mean? Immediately prior to the streak? My concern Jason is that the first half of the season we had a large number of players performing well below what could be expected, based on career norms. I think over the past week, we've seen some regression to the mean. How can you forecast the remainder of the season based on data that is most likely not reliable either? My thought is you have to forecast this offense to be better than it has been. Now if you can add to that, well, I think you've got a pretty good chance at this based on the pitching staff you have assembled, that honestly, has NOT pitched over their heads at all this year. I think it goes back to how you forecasted the team based upon the changes. I defended Melky all season and Alexei as well, saying they should rebound. I feel the same way over LaRoche, but his might not be until next year as I think his performance is injury related. All that said, we burried ourselves in a hole and have existing holes. If I were to forecast this team, I'd say Saladino is due for a regression (he isn't as good as he's shown, imo) and Avi, LaRoche, and Flowers are still major holes in the lineup. Saladino is below average at 3B with Sanchez being capable of being average. That is still a lot of below average guys on my forecast and as is, I don't think our pitching staff (as good as it is) can make up for those holes down the stretch (considering who we have to leap frog). With a significant upgrade in RF, I could see it being more possible (although I still wouldn't put it probable). Bottom line, I can't get behind buying rentals when my forecast says, their is a chance if we upgrade (I call it 15%) and almost no chance if we don't. I also have to consider the moves the other teams in the race made (i.e., Toronto). I am totally on board with buying, but I am not on board with renting given my forecasted playoff odds (and I have no science behind them other then my view of our team and my view of other teams in contention). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:20 AM) What if this streak had come in June and they were still at the same overall record right now? The streak did come in June as well. That's part of what I'm trying to say. This isn't the first time this team has done this. But most importantly, the team may be fundamentally changing right before our eyes, due to both recent additions as well as player development and regression to the mean. If you truly believe that, you have to somewhat dismiss the record and ask yourself whether your expectations going forward give you a realistic chance at beating out these other teams. For me, you're going to have a difficult time convincing me that we can't get this done. We just need a little shot in the arm here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:18 AM) Wood has been as good as Samardzija since getting to the majors (if not better) and Latos really isn't all that far behind. Statistically have they been similar, sure, but Shark is a different story. He's viewed in the league on another caliber. Latos was darn good and he's pitching well now, but if you asked me who I'd rather have start game 3 of the playoffs, my answer would be very easily Shark and I think every team in baseball would come to that conclusion*. * Presuming the matchup is against a team who hits lefties as good as righties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:22 AM) I think it goes back to how you forecasted the team based upon the changes. I defended Melky all season and Alexei as well, saying they should rebound. I feel the same way over LaRoche, but his might not be until next year as I think his performance is injury related. All that said, we burried ourselves in a hole and have existing holes. If I were to forecast this team, I'd say Saladino is due for a regression (he isn't as good as he's shown, imo) and Avi, LaRoche, and Flowers are still major holes in the lineup. Saladino is below average at 3B with Sanchez being capable of being average. That is still a lot of below average guys on my forecast and as is, I don't think our pitching staff (as good as it is) can make up for those holes down the stretch (considering who we have to leap frog). With a significant upgrade in RF, I could see it being more possible (although I still wouldn't put it probable). Bottom line, I can't get behind buying rentals when my forecast says, their is a chance if we upgrade (I call it 15%) and almost no chance if we don't. I also have to consider the moves the other teams in the race made (i.e., Toronto). I am totally on board with buying, but I am not on board with renting given my forecasted playoff odds (and I have no science behind them other then my view of our team and my view of other teams in contention). Yeah, I can live with that. I think the chances are better than you give us, but I don't want to move any key prospects for Upton or Cespedes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:24 AM) Statistically have they been similar, sure, but Shark is a different story. He's viewed in the league on another caliber. Latos was darn good and he's pitching well now, but if you asked me who I'd rather have start game 3 of the playoffs, my answer would be very easily Shark and I think every team in baseball would come to that conclusion*. * Presuming the matchup is against a team who hits lefties as good as righties. Latos and Shark both throw with their right hand. And Latos stuff has deteriorated significantly the past two years. Its a no brainer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:27 AM) Latos and Shark both throw with their right hand. And Latos stuff has deteriorated significantly the past two years. Its a no brainer. Yeah, but Wood is a lefty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrlesque Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:57 AM) Anything we give up for a rental when our backs are against the wall, is extremely risky. Belton Bill Melton was on yesterday and he had some interesting points (later on he kind of went back on them though, but I'll ignore that for the purpose of this post). Bottom line, he said that he hopes Kenny and Rick execute on whatever they planned to do prior to the streak happening. If they thought they had the goods to win, then do it, if not, then do that, but you shouldn't necessarily let 1.5 weeks of play impact your decisions for the rest of the season. I am actually giving Bill Melton more credit cause he didn't quite say it like that, but it was his point. It is also why I believe it is imperative for the club, if it is going to buy, to buy someone who will be here for the long haul (unless the rental is so cheap it is absurd not to do it, such as Beck for Cespedes or something like that). We should be taking a quasi Ranger mentality (or almost like a 2004 mentality when we acquired Contreras) and while the move might help us contend this year, the goal is for this to make us a better team in 2016 & 2017. With that in mind, when it comes to Shark, Hahn and Kenny have a ton of leverage right now. Dodgers still need that upgrade (and the list of pitchers like Shark is small and some rivals, including the Giants have upgraded). Angels have to also be interested in another pitcher (especially given the moves the Astros just made) and I presume the Yanks would be listening as well. I'm not saying I'm ready to sell as I want to buy and have said I want to buy (but potentially do a controlled sell as well). Given where the market is, if the Sox get the right offer, I don't blame them for selling Shark while still buying a bat elsewhere. I also am okay with them buying a bat and going for this thing, but please, please, do not buy a rental or make a bunch of moves ignoring our future. And also, please do not stand pat. This team, without another bat, has very low odds at fending things off, and at that point, given the leverage I presume we have with Shark, we'd be better off moving Shark, getting some talent who could help us in 2016 & 2017, while giving Erik Johnson and maybe even Montas some time in the bigs to see what we have in them. We can always then make another push to sign Shark in the off-season (if that is the move we want to make). I don't think you have to worry. I think KW and RH are well aware of this team's true postseason chances and are not foolish enough to pay anything even remotely significant for a rental. Even in the past, when the Sox were more serious contenders than they are now, midseason acquisitions tended to be guys that can help for multiple seasons (Peavy, Rios, Edwin Jackson, even back to Contreras). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneofthemikes Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (shipps @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:59 AM) Trade Samardzija. You will be glad you did it later or regret not doing it if you hold onto him. *applause* Been saying this for days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:28 AM) Yeah, but Wood is a lefty. Yes, I thought you were referring to Latos v. Shark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:22 AM) I think it goes back to how you forecasted the team based upon the changes. I defended Melky all season and Alexei as well, saying they should rebound. I feel the same way over LaRoche, but his might not be until next year as I think his performance is injury related. All that said, we burried ourselves in a hole and have existing holes. If I were to forecast this team, I'd say Saladino is due for a regression (he isn't as good as he's shown, imo) and Avi, LaRoche, and Flowers are still major holes in the lineup. Saladino is below average at 3B with Sanchez being capable of being average. That is still a lot of below average guys on my forecast and as is, I don't think our pitching staff (as good as it is) can make up for those holes down the stretch (considering who we have to leap frog). With a significant upgrade in RF, I could see it being more possible (although I still wouldn't put it probable). Bottom line, I can't get behind buying rentals when my forecast says, their is a chance if we upgrade (I call it 15%) and almost no chance if we don't. I also have to consider the moves the other teams in the race made (i.e., Toronto). I am totally on board with buying, but I am not on board with renting given my forecasted playoff odds (and I have no science behind them other then my view of our team and my view of other teams in contention). Love this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 To my point... Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 5m5 minutes ago Shockingly, Padres one of just five teams that haven't made a trade with deadline in 3 1/2 hours. Others: Cubs, White Sox, Twins, D'backs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:29 AM) Yes, I thought you were referring to Latos v. Shark. I meant any of the three (with really the focus being on Shark vs. Wood but in reality I'm taking Shark over any of them). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:30 AM) To my point... Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 5m5 minutes ago Shockingly, Padres one of just five teams that haven't made a trade with deadline in 3 1/2 hours. Others: Cubs, White Sox, Twins, D'backs. Not true we got Sellers yesterday in trade. Edited July 31, 2015 by Soxfest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Tizzle Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Only the White Sox could manage to enter the trading deadline neading to make a decision about selling or buying.......and do absolutely nothing. I hope Shark is dealt, and I've believed through the streak he should have been sold regardless of our position. But if we're not trading Shark, or pursuing anyone else, what exactly does that suggest? It sure as hell doesn't fool me into believing our inactivity is because our FO is confident in the team. What it tells me is the indecisiveness of the front office allowed an opportunity for improvement (through trading Shark, even if it is a rental for rental swap) to be passed over, and now the deadline mirrors so many seasons post 2008 -- without direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:30 AM) To my point... Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 5m5 minutes ago Shockingly, Padres one of just five teams that haven't made a trade with deadline in 3 1/2 hours. Others: Cubs, White Sox, Twins, D'backs. I must have missed a lot the past few days. Who did Mariners trade with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:39 AM) I must have missed a lot the past few days. Who did Mariners trade with? Ackley to the Yankees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Ah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I'd love Nelson Cruz if he was available for an affordable amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Tizzle Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 And to the point, I would not suggest that Shark should be sold for scraps or someone (patticularly a rental) should be acquired by giving away the farm. However, as we've seen recently through the media, the winning streak pushed Shark off the table and only allowed us a short period (close to the deadline) to acquire our bat. granted the day isnt over yet, but id hope we make a decision one way or another Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I really hope the sox are at least entertaining both buying and selling. If they can't get a bat that they need at least be still listening on shark in case someone offers them something good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:37 AM) Not true we got Sellers yesterday in trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 I have a feeling as time gets closer to expiring we'll see a deal opened up with teams we are familiar with. Many trades we've done with Oakland/Arizona/Boston. AZ not a likely match due to performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted July 31, 2015 Author Share Posted July 31, 2015 One other thing to think about...we are only .5 a game ahead of Texas who added Cole Hamels (and Hamilton is back healthy...no clue what that will actually mean but he's back). Not saying they are contenders, just saying, as currently constructed (and within a crazy run) they are only .5 game back of us and just added Cole Hamels. Their are a hell of a lot of teams around the Sox in the standings who have upgraded pretty significantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickofypres Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 QUOTE (shipps @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 11:59 AM) Trade Samardzija. You will be glad you did it later or regret not doing it if you hold onto him. Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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