Sox have tried to sign Samardzija to a long term deal

[Chisoxfn]

The big assumptions are that Samardjiza keeps pitching like he has, and that the market for baseball players doesn't completely collapse before November.

 

In 2015, a pitcher like Jeff Samardjiza is a $100 million pitcher.

I am not entirely sure about that. Shields thought he was, turns out he wasn't. More then ever teams are focusing more and more on stats and while Shark's stats are good, he really hasn't been the elite pitcher everyone thinks he is and I think he'll struggle to get paid as much. It is why I think, for the right price, it could make sense to sign him. That presumes he sits around for while and the market shrinks (kind of like what happened with Shields).

[Buehrlesque]

I think you're correct. I was thinking more along the lines of a shorter contract of 3 or 4 yrs and then hitting the FA market again at 29 or 30 yrs of age. The way things today seem to be, are the opt-out deals. I would love to have him but like you I doubt the Sox will sign him. If they do by chance sign him I can't see them signing anyone else or taking on any other bigger contracts such as Shark or any of our other needs.

A short contract would be great, but I doubt he'll have to settle for it when he can have his cake and eat it too with a long contract with opt out. I hate to bring up the name CarGo again, but he'll give you comparable (slightly worse) production for a fraction of the price.

 

CarGo for 2 years/$37 mil (plus a prospect or two) or

Heyward for 7 years/$140 mil (plus a draft pick).

 

I doubt Heyward does enough to justify the enormous additional cost.

[Buehrlesque]

I think Upton will be a bad idea. Teams are too enamored with his skill set and his one season and tend to ignore his actual production, which will good, is nowhere near as good as the contract he'll get. The same might happen with Heyward and the real question is how his defensive value will trend as he ages and whether you bet on his bat continuing to improve or not. Guy is loaded with talent and should be a much better hitter then he is. Cespedes would seem like the guy who would be the best value signing...how will he age is a question but if you can get him 3 years, 4 max, then it might not be so bad. Part of it depends on what he does in the post-season (if he gets to the post-season) as that could inflate his value if he gets all hot.

I'm more wary of Cespedes. He's older than both Heyward and Upton, and I'm worried he's having a career year in 2015 and would slip back to 2013-14 levels in his next contract.

[harfman77]

3/45, 3/69, and 4/66 would get laughed out the room.

 

The guy already turned down 5/85 from the Cubs, so you know that anything below that isn't worth offering. If the Sox really plan on that, they should just not make an offer so as not to insult the guy.

 

His numbers were better than too though, his value has not increased since he allegedly refused that offer, the AL has not been kind to him. He will go to free agency, but I am not going much more than 4/$66M with the bevy of options that are going to be available on the market.

 

The market is going to be a little crowded with SP:

 

Guys without draft pick compensation:

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Scott Kazmir

Matt Latos

Mike Leake

 

Guys with draft pick compensation:

Jordan Zimmermann

Yovani Gallardo

Ian Kennedy

Jeff Samardzjia

Brett Anderson

 

Shark is going to be the ninth or tenth rated SP on the market in terms of value, so he is likely not looking at the contract that he was a year ago when he was considered the Cubs "ace".

[AlSoxfan]

If the Sox do anything in free agency I think it will be Cespedes. The term of the deal won't be as long and no draft pick compensation attached make him a solid match. Upton and Heyward will be out of the realm of possibility for the Sox.

I've never been big on Cespedes...not sure why.. He does have a nice bat but he doesn't seem to want to play RF and thats our biggest need other than a much improved defense. One of the biggest reasons why I like Heyward. ..but you're right I think he or they are out of our realm.

[harfman77]

A short contract would be great, but I doubt he'll have to settle for it when he can have his cake and eat it too with a long contract with opt out. I hate to bring up the name CarGo again, but he'll give you comparable (slightly worse) production for a fraction of the price.

 

CarGo for 2 years/$37 mil (plus a prospect or two) or

Heyward for 7 years/$140 mil (plus a draft pick).

 

I doubt Heyward does enough to justify the enormous additional cost.

 

I wouldn't touch Heyward. He hits OK in the NL but would struggle in the AL (we have seen this story). A lot of his value is wrapped up in his defense which while nice, isn't really worth paying a premium for.

 

Upton probably gets something like 7/$160M too rich for the Sox blood.

 

Cespedes is a solid player, you probably will have to go 5 years to get him to sign, but in going the extra year you may save a little AAV.

 

There is always the chance that once the Sox can sign Shark they flip Q for Puig taking care of that hole.

[shysocks]

I wouldn't touch Heyward. He hits OK in the NL but would struggle in the AL (we have seen this story). A lot of his value is wrapped up in his defense which while nice, isn't really worth paying a premium for.

 

Upton probably gets something like 7/$160M too rich for the Sox blood.

 

Cespedes is a solid player, you probably will have to go 5 years to get him to sign, but in going the extra year you may save a little AAV.

 

There is always the chance that once the Sox can sign Shark they flip Q for Puig taking care of that hole.

Based on what? I keep seeing this refrain and I need an explanation. Something more compelling than "two guys the Sox brought over from the NL struggled," if possible.

[Jake]

His numbers were better than too though, his value has not increased since he allegedly refused that offer, the AL has not been kind to him. He will go to free agency, but I am not going much more than 4/$66M with the bevy of options that are going to be available on the market.

 

The market is going to be a little crowded with SP:

 

Guys without draft pick compensation:

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Scott Kazmir

Matt Latos

Mike Leake

 

Guys with draft pick compensation:

Jordan Zimmermann

Yovani Gallardo

Ian Kennedy

Jeff Samardzjia

Brett Anderson

 

Shark is going to be the ninth or tenth rated SP on the market in terms of value, so he is likely not looking at the contract that he was a year ago when he was considered the Cubs "ace".

 

Just going to annotate these SP FAs with some numbers.

 

Pitcher - 2015 WAR/2014+2015 WAR, career FIP (age in 2016 season)

David Price - 3.7/9.8, 3.24 (30)

Johnny Cueto - 3.1/7.7, 3.79 (30)

Scott Kazmir - 2.6/5.8, 3.89 (32)

Mat Latos - 1.5/3.2, 3.40 (28)

Mike Leake - 1.6/3.8 4.17 (28)

 

Jordan Zimmerman - 2.4/7.7, 3.33 (30)

Yovani Gallardo - 1.6/3.3, 3.73 (30)

Ian Kennedy - -0.5/3.0, 4.03 (31)

Jeff Samardzija - 2.4/6.6, 3.74 (31)

Brett Anderson - 1.3/2.3, 3.54 (28) (note -> last season before 2015 that he threw 100 IP was 2010)

 

Does Samardzija really look like the worst or second worst of those groups in terms of market value? Price, Cueto, and Zimmerman are the only ones who I'd say are a lock to earn more. Let's not forget that Samardzija also has the sort of name recognition that tends to make guys money.

[Chisoxfn]

Just going to annotate these SP FAs with some numbers.

 

Pitcher - 2015 WAR/2014+2015 WAR, career FIP (age in 2016 season)

David Price - 3.7/9.8, 3.24 (30)

Johnny Cueto - 3.1/7.7, 3.79 (30)

Scott Kazmir - 2.6/5.8, 3.89 (32)

Mat Latos - 1.5/3.2, 3.40 (28)

Mike Leake - 1.6/3.8 4.17 (28)

 

Jordan Zimmerman - 2.4/7.7, 3.33 (30)

Yovani Gallardo - 1.6/3.3, 3.73 (30)

Ian Kennedy - -0.5/3.0, 4.03 (31)

Jeff Samardzija - 2.4/6.6, 3.74 (31)

Brett Anderson - 1.3/2.3, 3.54 (28) (note -> last season before 2015 that he threw 100 IP was 2010)

 

Does Samardzija really look like the worst or second worst of those groups in terms of market value? Price, Cueto, and Zimmerman are the only ones who I'd say are a lock to earn more. Let's not forget that Samardzija also has the sort of name recognition that tends to make guys money.

I was going to say, I have a hard time putting Shark near the bottom of that list. You said it far more articulately then I could.

 

[Dick Allen]

Just going to annotate these SP FAs with some numbers.

 

Pitcher - 2015 WAR/2014+2015 WAR, career FIP (age in 2016 season)

David Price - 3.7/9.8, 3.24 (30)

Johnny Cueto - 3.1/7.7, 3.79 (30)

Scott Kazmir - 2.6/5.8, 3.89 (32)

Mat Latos - 1.5/3.2, 3.40 (28)

Mike Leake - 1.6/3.8 4.17 (28)

 

Jordan Zimmerman - 2.4/7.7, 3.33 (30)

Yovani Gallardo - 1.6/3.3, 3.73 (30)

Ian Kennedy - -0.5/3.0, 4.03 (31)

Jeff Samardzija - 2.4/6.6, 3.74 (31)

Brett Anderson - 1.3/2.3, 3.54 (28) (note -> last season before 2015 that he threw 100 IP was 2010)

 

Does Samardzija really look like the worst or second worst of those groups in terms of market value? Price, Cueto, and Zimmerman are the only ones who I'd say are a lock to earn more. Let's not forget that Samardzija also has the sort of name recognition that tends to make guys money.

 

He is middle of the road. It will be interesting to see if there are enough 9 figure deals to go around this winter. I think he will get paid, but that could be the biggest obstacle in his way. I know one thing, I wouldn't want to owe him $100 million or more. I have a hard time thinking he is going to get better from here.

 

[LDF]

Then you don't get to say anything about the White Sox not bringing in any big-time free agents this offseason because you're not anywhere close, ok?

 

There's nothing wrong with that, avoiding major free agents can be a smart move if done correctly. Just don't complain this offseason about the lack of impact moves.

 

oh man, i like to complain about everything.

 

but serious, you are saying that 3 yrs at 23 per is not good enuf. this would give him the opportunity to get another contract at 30-31.

[Balta1701]

oh man, i like to complain about everything.

 

but serious, you are saying that 3 yrs at 23 per is not good enuf. this would give him the opportunity to get another contract at 30-31.

You could give him 3/23 per where the opt-out is after 3 and that's what you pay, but he's going to get >>$100 million guaranteed. That's a way for teams to attract players - give them the security of a long-term deal but a chance to still take advantage of the market in a couple years.

[LDF]

You could give him 3/23 per where the opt-out is after 3 and that's what you pay, but he's going to get >>$100 million guaranteed. That's a way for teams to attract players - give them the security of a long-term deal but a chance to still take advantage of the market in a couple years.

 

i just want to verify. we are talking about Heyward, right??

 

now i see and agree with what you are saying.

 

buy at 3 yr or even at 4 yrs with a 23 per is a nice option for the player. it will give him a chance to get a nicer contract at 30 yrs of age.

[Balta1701]

i just want to verify. we are talking about Heyward, right??

 

now i see and agree with what you are saying.

 

buy at 3 yr or even at 4 yrs with a 23 per is a nice option for the player. it will give him a chance to get a nicer contract at 30 yrs of age.

No. He'll get something like 7/$140 with an opt out after 3-4 years. In other words you'll probably only pay him $60-$80 million, but the team takes on the risk of the full $140 million or whatever it winds up being in case he has a severe career setback or gets hurt, not the player.

[LDF]

No. He'll get something like 7/$140 with an opt out after 3-4 years. In other words you'll probably only pay him $60-$80 million, but the team takes on the risk of the full $140 million or whatever it winds up being in case he has a severe career setback or gets hurt, not the player.

 

well that is why i was sweetening the deal at 23 per, so that he and his agent can get the extra 3 mil per for a 3 yr deal.

 

however what you are stating and the reason is perfectly understandable and is prob the better move, for in case of any injury.

 

but again many thanks for the discussion.

[Balta1701]

well that is why i was sweetening the deal at 23 per, so that he and his agent can get the extra 3 mil per for a 3 yr deal.

 

however what you are stating and the reason is perfectly understandable and is prob the better move, for in case of any injury.

 

but again many thanks for the discussion.

If you want to get him to drop the $80+ million in extra guaranteed money you'll need to do a lot better than a $9 million sweetener.

 

You could probably get him to go 3/$120 or something ridiculous like that.

[caulfield12]

Just going to annotate these SP FAs with some numbers.

 

Pitcher - 2015 WAR/2014+2015 WAR, career FIP (age in 2016 season)

David Price - 3.7/9.8, 3.24 (30)

Johnny Cueto - 3.1/7.7, 3.79 (30)

Scott Kazmir - 2.6/5.8, 3.89 (32)

Mat Latos - 1.5/3.2, 3.40 (28)

Mike Leake - 1.6/3.8 4.17 (28)

 

Jordan Zimmerman - 2.4/7.7, 3.33 (30)

Yovani Gallardo - 1.6/3.3, 3.73 (30)

Ian Kennedy - -0.5/3.0, 4.03 (31)

Jeff Samardzija - 2.4/6.6, 3.74 (31)

Brett Anderson - 1.3/2.3, 3.54 (28) (note -> last season before 2015 that he threw 100 IP was 2010)

 

Does Samardzija really look like the worst or second worst of those groups in terms of market value? Price, Cueto, and Zimmerman are the only ones who I'd say are a lock to earn more. Let's not forget that Samardzija also has the sort of name recognition that tends to make guys money.

 

A healthy Iwakuma is a value buy, but there's the Safeco factor. He was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball last season and is likely to rebound next year.

 

[harfman77]

Just going to annotate these SP FAs with some numbers.

 

Pitcher - 2015 WAR/2014+2015 WAR, career FIP (age in 2016 season)

David Price - 3.7/9.8, 3.24 (30)

Johnny Cueto - 3.1/7.7, 3.79 (30)

Scott Kazmir - 2.6/5.8, 3.89 (32)

Mat Latos - 1.5/3.2, 3.40 (28)

Mike Leake - 1.6/3.8 4.17 (28)

 

Jordan Zimmerman - 2.4/7.7, 3.33 (30)

Yovani Gallardo - 1.6/3.3, 3.73 (30)

Ian Kennedy - -0.5/3.0, 4.03 (31)

Jeff Samardzija - 2.4/6.6, 3.74 (31)

Brett Anderson - 1.3/2.3, 3.54 (28) (note -> last season before 2015 that he threw 100 IP was 2010)

 

Does Samardzija really look like the worst or second worst of those groups in terms of market value? Price, Cueto, and Zimmerman are the only ones who I'd say are a lock to earn more. Let's not forget that Samardzija also has the sort of name recognition that tends to make guys money.

 

I wasn't trying to rank them, only show the amount of pitching that is going to be available each team will have their own rankings and it's doubtful that any two lists are the same. Sharks value is tied to the draft pick associated and is not worth on the open market what it was a year ago.

[flavum]

Seeing the state of the team more clearly now that the 7-game win streak mirage is over, the Sox would be stupid to sign Samardzija. Waste of money for a bad team. Bring in Johnson and Montas, take your lumps, and stop fooling yourself that you're a good team.

[Balta1701]

Seeing the state of the team more clearly now that the 7-game win streak mirage is over, the Sox would be stupid to sign Samardzija. Waste of money for a bad team. Bring in Johnson and Montas, take your lumps, and stop fooling yourself that you're a good team.

Montas is a full year away or more, just go look at his innings totals. He really 100% needs a full year at Charlotte next year first.

 

It woulda been nice to have EJ up and working in August and September.

[caulfield12]

Fwiw, Chris Bassitt has a shutout going against the Orioles tonight.

 

6.2 ip, 4 h, 2 bb, 6 k....2.66 era on the season

Edited August 5, 2015 by caulfield12

[harfman77]

Seeing the state of the team more clearly now that the 7-game win streak mirage is over, the Sox would be stupid to sign Samardzija. Waste of money for a bad team. Bring in Johnson and Montas, take your lumps, and stop fooling yourself that you're a good team.

 

The issue is that there is no good way to upgrade this offense without making a trade. The Sox are not going to get an impact bat in free agency so they are going to need to trade for one, which means giving up a starting pitcher. If they do that they will need another SP to hold down a rotation spot to avoid being a bad team next season. If you fix the offense and then have two holes in the rotation you are robbing Peter to pay Paul and not really getting any benefit. With a top 3 of Sale, Shark, and Rodon, you are going to be OK with Danks and Johnson/Beck/Danish filling out the staff, especially if you can improve the defense and provide some consistent run support.

[ChiSox59]

Fwiw, Chris Bassitt has a shutout going against the Orioles tonight.

 

6.2 ip, 4 h, 2 bb, 6 k....2.66 era on the season

 

He'd look good in the Charlotte rotation. Because that's where he'd be.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Fwiw, Chris Bassitt has a shutout going against the Orioles tonight.

 

6.2 ip, 4 h, 2 bb, 6 k....2.66 era on the season

 

Also Marcus Semien hit a 3R HR after Sogaard was IBB in front of him but its cool we get a comp pick.

 

Edit: Phegley .794 OPS in limited duty not sure how his defense has been .

Edited August 5, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[harfman77]

Based on what? I keep seeing this refrain and I need an explanation. Something more compelling than "two guys the Sox brought over from the NL struggled," if possible.

 

Based on a pretty extensive track record. There are few exceptions for player decline when moving to the AL from the NL.

 

Players to go NL to AL

last season

Previous league last season Other league first season

Pablo Sandoval .279/.324/.415 113 OPS+ .259/.305/.385 89 OPS+

Hanley Ramirez .283/.369/.448 130 OPS+ .263/.304/.450 104 OPS+

Adam LaRoche .259/.362/.455 127 OPS+ .220/.312/.347 88 OPS+

Emilio Bonifacio .259/.305/.345 82 OPS+ .169/.200/.195 14 OPS+

Evan Gattis .263/.317/493 124 OPS+ .244/.274/.449 96 OPS+

 

2013

Shin Soo Choo .285/.423/.462 145 OPS+ .242/.340/.374 100 OPS+

Brian McCann .256/.336/.461 118 OPS+ .232/.286/.406 93 OPS+

Carlos Beltran .296/.339/.491 127 OPS+ .233/.301/.402 97 OPS+

 

AL to NL

 

Nick Markakis .276/.342/.386 105 OPS+ .293/.371/.369 108 OPS+

Alberto Callaspo .223/.290/.290 67 OPS+ .226/.310/.271 65 OPS+

Jonny Gomes .234/.320/.250 66 OPS+ .205/.313/.319 78 OPS+

AJP .251/.288/.337 114 OPS+ .302/.339/.446 124 OPS +

 

2013

Curtis Granderson .229/.317/.407 99 OPS+ .227/.326/.388 103 OPS+

Jarrod Saltalamacchia .273/.338/.466 118 OPS+ .220/.320/.362 91 OPS+

 

Edited August 5, 2015 by IowaSoxFan