Nate Silver/538.com article points out why doing nothing made no sense

[caulfield12]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/did-yo...trade-deadline/

 

We weren't even close on July 31st to the suggested 1 number...see graphs/chart below.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Eh not really. They're focused on WS odds which is fine but probably not the immediate goal for us. More importantly they are not weighing Shark's comp pick/contract window vs whatever package we could have got for him, since measuring that is impossible.

[BlackSox13]

Without knowing what might have been offered for Samardzija, I fail to see the point.

[Panerista]

Without knowing what might have been offered for Samardzija, I fail to see the point.

Sounds like the Royals were interested. There is some serious talent in that organization. Probably should have moved Samardzija. At this rate, he's gone at the end of the year and the White Sox will get picks for him, but the FO sucks at drafting the positional talent we desperately need.

Edited August 5, 2015 by AustinIllini

[knightni]

Sounds like the Royals were interested. There is some serious talent in that organization. Probably should have moved Samardzija. At this rate, he's gone at the end of the year and the White Sox will get picks for him, but the FO sucks at drafting the positional talent we desperately need.

By the time that the deadline was there, KC had already traded for Cueto, and Cueto is having a better year than Shark.

 

 

[caulfield12]

By the time that the deadline was there, KC had already traded for Cueto, and Cueto is having a better year than Shark.

 

This is the Hahn argument...when he wanted to fold 5-6 weeks ago.

 

Duffy was injured, Ventura was struggling mightily and Volquez was the only one holding that rotation together.

 

Young, Vargas and Guthrie were all worse for wear.

 

That was the time to strike. They would have been buying half a season as well, compared to just 10-11 starts.

[shysocks]

Without knowing what might have been offered for Samardzija, I fail to see the point.

Caulfield gets to complain about something, that's the point.

[harfman77]

This is the Hahn argument...when he wanted to fold 5-6 weeks ago.

 

Duffy was injured, Ventura was struggling mightily and Volquez was the only one holding that rotation together.

 

Young, Vargas and Guthrie were all worse for wear.

 

That was the time to strike. They would have been buying half a season as well, compared to just 10-11 starts.

 

The pick that you are going to get is going to be worth more to the Sox than anything KC would have offered. The package they gave up for Cueto was not really that much more valuable than the comp pick and Cueto has more value than Shark.

[caulfield12]

The pick that you are going to get is going to be worth more to the Sox than anything KC would have offered. The package they gave up for Cueto was not really that much more valuable than the comp pick and Cueto has more value than Shark.

 

 

This pick better make the All-Star team.

 

The last guys we had in that category were names like Lumsden, Whisler, Liotta, Lucy, Danny Wright, etc.

 

 

As for now, I'm not buying we will get the equivalent of Lamb or Reed, let alone Finnegan.

Edited August 5, 2015 by caulfield12

[Quin]

This pick better make the All-Star team.

 

The last guys we had in that category were names like Lumsden, Whisler, Liotta, Lucy, Danny Wright, etc.

 

 

As for now, I'm not buying we will get the equivalent of Lamb or Reed, let alone Finnegan.

 

Or Caulfield favorite, Keon Barnum.

 

Or Trayce Thompson. Or Josh Phegley. Or Gio Gonzalez.

 

I disagree that comp pick = the deal for Cueto. The Reds clearly got more than what a comp pick would be worth.

 

But is this really just cherry picking past White Sox draft picks in the comp rounds?

 

[knightni]

Past Sox drafts have almost nothing to do with future drafts.

 

Most of the people involved are totally different.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Past Sox drafts have almost nothing to do with future drafts.

 

Most of the people involved are totally different.

 

Except for the White Sox people doing the drafting.

 

Guess we'll know by 2019 or 2020 about Hostetler.

[caulfield12]

Not true.

 

College players make it the majors in that timeframe. Drafting is about making ASSETS. Dave Dombrowski was not very good at producing home grown talent but he was a master at drafting power tools and selling high on them before their value expired.

 

He was with the Expos and Marlins, but that was probably before your time...

 

And he was smart enough to take an anomalous/outlying year from Edwin Jackson and turn him into Max Scherzer.

[Dick Allen]

He was with the Expos and Marlins, but that was probably before your time...

 

And he was smart enough to take an anomalous/outlying year from Edwin Jackson and turn him into Max Scherzer.

So if JR ordered KW to trade Sale, Q, and Abreu for prospects, and those prospects turned out to be pretty good 5 or 6 years from that moment, and the White Sox won the wild card after signing a premier free agent like Ivan Rodriquez that offseason, you would give KW full credit for building that team, correct?

 

And what exactly was his claim to fame with the Expos? He did draft Charles Johnson, Cliff Floyd and Rondell White, but that isn't incredible, especially considering in the draft he got White he had 10 of the first 53 picks in the entire draft.

 

Joe Nathan. Remember that name.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

I'm entirely fine with the Sox not being buyers. The Cleveland and Boston road trip were fun, and yeah, they gave a bit of hope, but 2 things happened leading up to the deadline that made me very happy with standing pat:

-I looked at the calendar and observed that it was the end of July. A little late to suddenly start not sucking.

-During Thursday's broadcast, Steve Stone read off the post-road trip upcoming schedule. NYY, TB, KC, Cubs, LAA.

 

As an added bonus, Toronto and Houston- two teams ahead of the Sox in WC standings that were very clearly better than the Sox even prior to the moves they made- got quite a bit better via multiple moves.

 

What impact would an extra bat have made in the multiple games that the Sox were blown out since the last game of the Boston series?

 

In regards to not moving Samardzija, maybe it just means they intend to keep him here. If that's the idea, I'm not particularly opposed to leave him alone rather than flipping him for something and then going for him in the off-season.

[harfman77]

This pick better make the All-Star team.

 

The last guys we had in that category were names like Lumsden, Whisler, Liotta, Lucy, Danny Wright, etc.

 

 

As for now, I'm not buying we will get the equivalent of Lamb or Reed, let alone Finnegan.

 

Again, you were never going to get the same caliber of package that the Reds got for Cueto he has been more valuable, so the package that Shark would have pulled in would have been less than that. Lamb and Reed are RP's that you could get, they are not extremely valuable guys. Scott Kazmir probably had a closer value to Shark and pulled in a package of two mid range prospects.

 

Also the draft is much different now than we drafted those guys a decade ago. The Sox have not gone into the draft trying to pinch pennies, they have been pretty successful in working their slot values to maxmize the talent that they have been able to acquire. This comp pick will get you around the 30th best prospect in the draft which gives the opportunity to select someone like Tyler Danish or Spencer Adams.

[caulfield12]

Again, you were never going to get the same caliber of package that the Reds got for Cueto he has been more valuable, so the package that Shark would have pulled in would have been less than that. Lamb and Reed are RP's that you could get, they are not extremely valuable guys. Scott Kazmir probably had a closer value to Shark and pulled in a package of two mid range prospects.

 

Also the draft is much different now than we drafted those guys a decade ago. The Sox have not gone into the draft trying to pinch pennies, they have been pretty successful in working their slot values to maxmize the talent that they have been able to acquire. This comp pick will get you around the 30th best prospect in the draft which gives the opportunity to select someone like Tyler Danish or Spencer Adams.

 

That's all well and good, but Balta's informal research said 10% chances of getting an All-Star.

 

After this season, the Danish hype train has hit a snag. We'll see.

 

 

I would have more faith if they could execute simple relay throws or rundowns correctly.

[GREEDY]

The biggest thing the White Sox DIDN'T get by holding Samardzija is money.

 

That 4+ million might have come in handy this next offseason.

 

Also, very disappointing that Beckham, Bonifacio, & even LaRoche all performed so terribly in the first half of the season that there wasn't a single team willing to take them for only the remaining money due.

 

[LDF]

The biggest thing the White Sox DIDN'T get by holding Samardzija is money.

 

That 4+ million might have come in handy this next offseason.

 

Also, very disappointing that Beckham, Bonifacio, & even LaRoche all performed so terribly in the first half of the season that there wasn't a single team willing to take them for only the remaining money due.

 

of the players you mention, i still have to give beckham credit for holding down the fort, defensively in the first half. for that alone, i was happy he was on the team.

[GREEDY]

of the players you mention, i still have to give beckham credit for holding down the fort, defensively in the first half. for that alone, i was happy he was on the team.

 

Absolutely. I think there is a strong chance that as the season progresses and the money owed to Gordon lessens, that a team grabs him via waivers.