Fangraohs: Adam Eaton Is Up to Something

[OmarComing25]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-eaton-...p-to-something/

[shipps]

Happy that Adam is playing well and progressing in his maturity. Especially in that we have him under contract now and really need him to be what we expected when he was signed to the extension.

[Balta1701]

If you delve a little deeper into his stats than this article it becomes even more confusing. Yes, his GB% age is way down, but what counters that is not hard-hit balls or line drives, it's fly balls, specifically a certain type of fly ball that you don't want to hit. His Fly Ball rate has gone up by 8% and his infield popup rate has gone up by 7% - so almost all of the additional fly balls he's hitting are popups.

 

He's not noticeably pulling the ball any more, he's not noticeably hitting more balls hard, he is hitting slightly more line drives (2%) but not nearly as big as the change in fly balls.

 

Basically Adam Eaton is popping the ball up a lot more. He's getting vastly fewer groundball and infield hits, those ground balls are now turning into popups.

 

However one thing is offsetting that - he hit HR on only 1% of his fly balls last year. This year his HR/FB rate has gone from an insanely low 1% to a much more normal for baseball players 9%.

 

Eaton is actually doing fewer good things with the bat...popping the ball up weakly more and hitting fewer ground balls that could turn into hits....except for he's suddenly showing the power of a normal hitter and additional power is really good. So, batting average down, OBP down, but almost the same overall hitter because he's hitting with a more normal amount of power.

 

The question remaining is...how much of that is sustainable. If he keeps this higher rate of IF popups and his HR rate drops somewhat next year...then he really hurts his game. If he could keep this rate of HR/FB and cut that rate of IF popups back down, then he could become an exceptional player again.

[iamshack]

If you delve a little deeper into his stats than this article it becomes even more confusing. Yes, his GB% age is way down, but what counters that is not hard-hit balls or line drives, it's fly balls, specifically a certain type of fly ball that you don't want to hit. His Fly Ball rate has gone up by 8% and his infield popup rate has gone up by 7% - so almost all of the additional fly balls he's hitting are popups.

 

He's not noticeably pulling the ball any more, he's not noticeably hitting more balls hard, he is hitting slightly more line drives (2%) but not nearly as big as the change in fly balls.

 

Basically Adam Eaton is popping the ball up a lot more. He's getting vastly fewer groundball and infield hits, those ground balls are now turning into popups.

 

However one thing is offsetting that - he hit HR on only 1% of his fly balls last year. This year his HR/FB rate has gone from an insanely low 1% to a much more normal for baseball players 9%.

 

Eaton is actually doing fewer good things with the bat...popping the ball up weakly more and hitting fewer ground balls that could turn into hits....except for he's suddenly showing the power of a normal hitter and additional power is really good. So, batting average down, OBP down, but almost the same overall hitter because he's hitting with a more normal amount of power.

 

The question remaining is...how much of that is sustainable. If he keeps this higher rate of IF popups and his HR rate drops somewhat next year...then he really hurts his game. If he could keep this rate of HR/FB and cut that rate of IF popups back down, then he could become an exceptional player again.

Are you referring to overall for the season or just the second half?

 

Because his BA and OBP seem to have increased to me in the second half...

[Jerksticks]

I think he's definitely improved his game this year. Best Sox trade in a long time IMO.

[chitownsportsfan]

Good post Balta but I think it's simpler than that: he's sitting fastball more and driving them. Most of his homeruns have been on fastballs right? I'm thinking he's just more comfie the 2nd time around the league, older wise all that, and is probably letting it rip more often in favorable counts rather than trying to draw a walk or slap a single.

 

FWIW, the pitch values back this up: he's done more damage on fastballs this year and less on offspeed.

[Balta1701]

Good post Balta but I think it's simpler than that: he's sitting fastball more and driving them. Most of his homeruns have been on fastballs right? I'm thinking he's just more comfie the 2nd time around the league, older wise all that, and is probably letting it rip more often in favorable counts rather than trying to draw a walk or slap a single.

 

FWIW, the pitch values back this up: he's done more damage on fastballs this year and less on offspeed.

It's interesting to note that Fangraphs presents RC+ as their overall number for a persons offense and wrote this article saying how Eaton is hitting more HR without noting the important part that his additional HR has not led to an improvement in offense (RC+ actually slightly down despite the HR).

[iamshack]

It's interesting to note that Fangraphs presents RC+ as their overall number for a persons offense and wrote this article saying how Eaton is hitting more HR without noting the important part that his additional HR has not led to an improvement in offense (RC+ actually slightly down despite the HR).

And you are referring to the same sample as the author?

[Jake]

If you delve a little deeper into his stats than this article it becomes even more confusing. Yes, his GB% age is way down, but what counters that is not hard-hit balls or line drives, it's fly balls, specifically a certain type of fly ball that you don't want to hit. His Fly Ball rate has gone up by 8% and his infield popup rate has gone up by 7% - so almost all of the additional fly balls he's hitting are popups.

 

He's not noticeably pulling the ball any more, he's not noticeably hitting more balls hard, he is hitting slightly more line drives (2%) but not nearly as big as the change in fly balls.

 

Basically Adam Eaton is popping the ball up a lot more. He's getting vastly fewer groundball and infield hits, those ground balls are now turning into popups.

 

However one thing is offsetting that - he hit HR on only 1% of his fly balls last year. This year his HR/FB rate has gone from an insanely low 1% to a much more normal for baseball players 9%.

 

Eaton is actually doing fewer good things with the bat...popping the ball up weakly more and hitting fewer ground balls that could turn into hits....except for he's suddenly showing the power of a normal hitter and additional power is really good. So, batting average down, OBP down, but almost the same overall hitter because he's hitting with a more normal amount of power.

 

The question remaining is...how much of that is sustainable. If he keeps this higher rate of IF popups and his HR rate drops somewhat next year...then he really hurts his game. If he could keep this rate of HR/FB and cut that rate of IF popups back down, then he could become an exceptional player again.

 

I can help solve one part of this mystery. IFFB% is popups as a percentage of fly balls, not all batted balls. A little deceptive given the way it is presented alongside a bunch of other percentages using total batted balls as denominator.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I can help solve one part of this mystery. IFFB% is popups as a percentage of fly balls, not all batted balls. A little deceptive given the way it is presented alongside a bunch of other percentages using total batted balls as denominator.

 

This is always the problem with advanced statistical analysis. No one understands what they are looking at and then someone else has to explain it and then someone else argues against that explanation.

 

The baseball explanation probably is what chitown said looking to turn on fastballs in favorable counts which may require a harder swing. So when he gets off balance when the pitch is off speed or slower than expected he gets under it and pops it up,

 

Basically he's trying to hit HR's and he said as much at the beginning of the year. Said something about knowing he has more power and might've actually been embarrassed he hit only 1 last year . Said he expected to hit around 10.