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The Second Half and It's Meaning for 2016


Dunt

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With this season seemingly over, I've been mostly interested in trying to figure out how the Sox will be moving forward as an organization. While this season has been largely a disappointment to myself and other Sox fans, I can't help but think a few tweaks this offseason can have the White Sox seriously contending for the playoffs next season. In order to support that argument, I decided to take a look at our second half numbers:

 

Adam Eaton .308/.408/.462/.870 in 169 AB

Jose Abreu .293/.373/.571/.944 in 166 AB

Carlos Sanchez .304/.340/.463/.803 in 144 AB

Geovany Soto .325/.438/.700/1.138 in 48 AB

Trayce Thompson .522/.560/.957/1.517 in 25 AB

Alexei Ramirez .275/.311/.472/.783 in 151 AB

Melky Cabrera .291/.331/.483/.814 in 164 AB

Tyler Saladino .247/.283/.340/.623 in 162 AB

JB Shuck .281/.361/.438/.799 in 37 AB

Avisail Garcia .261/.323/.394/.717 in 155 AB

Tyler Flowers .205/.263/.273/.536 in 97 AB

Adam LaRoche .191/.218/.313/.531 in 119 AB

 

Some observations from the numbers:

-Some players (Eaton, Soto, Sanchez, Thompson) currently have unsustainable BABIPs, so those numbers should go down some, but it's interesting to note the surge in offense from both Eaton and Sanchez in the 2nd half. Eaton is drawing twice as many walks as he did in the first half of the season.

-Eaton's defensive score has gotten significantly better in the second half (he went from a -6.1 to a -2.9). Still not great for a premium defensive position, but it's good to see the improvement.

-Tyler Flowers offensive numbers are down across the board in the 2nd half, most noticeably his SLG% is below .300. To compare, Geo Soto has been worth 1.2 wins more than Flowers over the second half alone.

 

While the sample size may still be small, you can start to gather that we may be seeing some players solidify their positions for next year. I think Sanchez's second half has really cemented his likelihood of being the opening day starter at second next year while Flowers abysmal second half has shown that he is nothing more than a back up at this point. I am fine keeping him as a back up and personal catcher for Sale, but his defense and framing just doesnt make up for the negative value of his bat. Will they choose to put the position off another year and have Geo come back? Wouldn't be the worst idea, but I dont see Geo taking anything other than a starter role next season. Another big question is what the Sox will be doing with Alexei. While his second half numbers are much more in line with his usual type of production, Alexei has made far too many mental mistakes this season and just doesnt seem as engaged as he previously has. With that said, I think moving Saladino over to SS as place holder for Anderson seems to make the most sense for next season. That leaves the Sox with a gaping hole at third and while Saladino has played elite defense over there so far, his bat really doesnt justify keeping him there. As someone on the page has already pointed out, his numbers dont look nearly as bad when compared to the mlb avg of SS in comparison to the mlb avg 3B. Last but not least, I really think Avi needs to go. Trayce may not be the answer, but the White Sox really need to find that out over the next month. Avi still has not proven to be anything other than a below replacement level player since he came into the league. The "potential" may still be there for some folks, but it's really hard to justify keeping him out there when he is so obviously a weak link on this team. His defense and base running are absolutely awful in conjunction with his hitting. We are stuck with LaRoche, so hopefully Hahn is smart enough to find a cheapish bat to platoon with him next season in the DH role.

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 26, 2015 -> 12:39 PM)
With this season seemingly over, I've been mostly interested in trying to figure out how the Sox will be moving forward as an organization. While this season has been largely a disappointment to myself and other Sox fans, I can't help but think a few tweaks this offseason can have the White Sox seriously contending for the playoffs next season. In order to support that argument, I decided to take a look at our second half numbers:

 

Adam Eaton .308/.408/.462/.870 in 169 AB

Jose Abreu .293/.373/.571/.944 in 166 AB

Carlos Sanchez .304/.340/.463/.803 in 144 AB

Geovany Soto .325/.438/.700/1.138 in 48 AB

Trayce Thompson .522/.560/.957/1.517 in 25 AB

Alexei Ramirez .275/.311/.472/.783 in 151 AB

Melky Cabrera .291/.331/.483/.814 in 164 AB

Tyler Saladino .247/.283/.340/.623 in 162 AB

JB Shuck .281/.361/.438/.799 in 37 AB

Avisail Garcia .261/.323/.394/.717 in 155 AB

Tyler Flowers .205/.263/.273/.536 in 97 AB

Adam LaRoche .191/.218/.313/.531 in 119 AB

 

Some observations from the numbers:

-Some players (Eaton, Soto, Sanchez, Thompson) currently have unsustainable BABIPs, so those numbers should go down some, but it's interesting to note the surge in offense from both Eaton and Sanchez in the 2nd half. Eaton is drawing twice as many walks as he did in the first half of the season.

-Eaton's defensive score has gotten significantly better in the second half (he went from a -6.1 to a -2.9). Still not great for a premium defensive position, but it's good to see the improvement.

-Tyler Flowers offensive numbers are down across the board in the 2nd half, most noticeably his SLG% is below .300. To compare, Geo Soto has been worth 1.2 wins more than Flowers over the second half alone.

 

While the sample size may still be small, you can start to gather that we may be seeing some players solidify their positions for next year. I think Sanchez's second half has really cemented his likelihood of being the opening day starter at second next year while Flowers abysmal second half has shown that he is nothing more than a back up at this point. I am fine keeping him as a back up and personal catcher for Sale, but his defense and framing just doesnt make up for the negative value of his bat. Will they choose to put the position off another year and have Geo come back? Wouldn't be the worst idea, but I dont see Geo taking anything other than a starter role next season. Another big question is what the Sox will be doing with Alexei. While his second half numbers are much more in line with his usual type of production, Alexei has made far too many mental mistakes this season and just doesnt seem as engaged as he previously has. With that said, I think moving Saladino over to SS as place holder for Anderson seems to make the most sense for next season. That leaves the Sox with a gaping hole at third and while Saladino has played elite defense over there so far, his bat really doesnt justify keeping him there. As someone on the page has already pointed out, his numbers dont look nearly as bad when compared to the mlb avg of SS in comparison to the mlb avg 3B. Last but not least, I really think Avi needs to go. Trayce may not be the answer, but the White Sox really need to find that out over the next month. Avi still has not proven to be anything other than a below replacement level player since he came into the league. The "potential" may still be there for some folks, but it's really hard to justify keeping him out there when he is so obviously a weak link on this team. His defense and base running are absolutely awful in conjunction with his hitting. We are stuck with LaRoche, so hopefully Hahn is smart enough to find a cheapish bat to platoon with him next season in the DH role.

 

I think Flowers is more valuable to this team than Soto is though. Rodon's numbers alone justify keeping Flowers to let him catch Sale/Rodon. I'd definitely try to upgrade from Soto though and keep Flowers as the backup. The White Sox course of action will definitely be to tweak and try and win in 2016 though.

 

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I appreciate the time and effort put into the start of the thread.

 

To me though it boils down to basically one thing and one thing only regardless of who the Sox keep, trade, sign, draft.

 

GETTING OFF TO A GOOD START.

 

The Sox haven't had a winning month of April since 2009.

 

That means that by May 1st they are usually three, or four or more games behind the leaders.

 

On paper that's not a big deal not with 130 games to go.

 

However, with this organization it seems that once pressure starts to be applied mentally, the players don't respond well.

 

Four games behind to this bunch IS a big deal in my opinion.

 

This team was woefully unprepared to start the season.

 

They were brutal the last 10 days of spring training. They were flat opening day, they were flat again for the home opener. How can that be?

 

Unless Robin and his staff (since I don't think anyone is leaving) changes their ways I don't think it will much matter what the Sox do in the off season again.

 

Ozzie was the same way, thinking spring training was a joke and the results played themselves out for him as expected to his last few years.

 

Just my opinion.

 

Mark

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QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Aug 26, 2015 -> 12:55 PM)
I appreciate the time and effort put into the start of the thread.

 

To me though it boils down to basically one thing and one thing only regardless of who the Sox keep, trade, sign, draft.

 

GETTING OFF TO A GOOD START.

 

The Sox haven't had a winning month of April since 2009.

 

That means that by May 1st they are usually three, or four or more games behind the leaders.

 

On paper that's not a big deal not with 130 games to go.

 

However, with this organization it seems that once pressure starts to be applied mentally, the players don't respond well.

 

Four games behind to this bunch IS a big deal in my opinion.

 

This team was woefully unprepared to start the season.

 

They were brutal the last 10 days of spring training. They were flat opening day, they were flat again for the home opener. How can that be?

 

Unless Robin and his staff (since I don't think anyone is leaving) changes their ways I don't think it will much matter what the Sox do in the off season again.

 

Ozzie was the same way, thinking spring training was a joke and the results played themselves out for him as expected to his last few years.

 

Just my opinion.

 

Mark

 

Getting off to a good start is paramount. While Im not sure it's very quantifiable, there has to be a lot of positives for teams that dont start out immediately in a hole, that arent making mental mistakes and losing the trust of their pitchers early in the season. They always do seem to come out flat and typically end up getting buried early. Another concern for me is that Robin isnt really the best strategic manager. This lineup might not have been constructed to give him too many options, but the fact that LaRoche got so many starts against lefties this season is really concerning to me. If a platoon is needed, that needs to be determined in april, not august. In 2015, Adam Eaton is batting .227 against lefties and .280 against righties? Why isnt Trayce playing for him against lefties? I think he's had him replace Eaton once since being called up. He just hasnt proven to me that he is a good strategic manager. Why did it take the Sox until SSS posted about CERA to switch up Rodon's catcher? Are these guys just not paying attention themselves?

 

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 26, 2015 -> 12:51 PM)
Getting off to a good start is paramount. While Im not sure it's very quantifiable, there has to be a lot of positives for teams that dont start out immediately in a hole, that arent making mental mistakes and losing the trust of their pitchers early in the season. They always do seem to come out flat and typically end up getting buried early. Another concern for me is that Robin isnt really the best strategic manager. This lineup might not have been constructed to give him too many options, but the fact that LaRoche got so many starts against lefties this season is really concerning to me. If a platoon is needed, that needs to be determined in april, not august. In 2015, Adam Eaton is batting .227 against lefties and .280 against righties? Why isnt Trayce playing for him against lefties? I think he's had him replace Eaton once since being called up. He just hasnt proven to me that he is a good strategic manager. Why did it take the Sox until SSS posted about CERA to switch up Rodon's catcher? Are these guys just not paying attention themselves?

 

I can't speak with certainty and I certainly haven't been told anything specific but if you look at this organization since the new owners took over I've gotten a strong sense that they want to win but they want to win their way under their conditions.

 

This organization (and I'm not saying they should) has always felt they were "smarter" then the fans, agents, the media when it comes to general concepts like how to build a winner and what that takes to accomplish.

 

I don't think it's a question of 'getting it' or 'understanding things' I think it's more along the lines of 'we're going to do it our way' (for better or for worse.

 

Mark

 

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I wouldn't be surprised if Avi Garcia was moved this off season. Last week he had 2 hits in the game and was lifted in the 8th inning for a pinch hitter. That hitter was Adam LaRoche. Garcia can't be thought of highly by the White Sox if LaRoche is pinch hitting for him.

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QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Aug 26, 2015 -> 07:03 PM)
I can't speak with certainty and I certainly haven't been told anything specific but if you look at this organization since the new owners took over I've gotten a strong sense that they want to win but they want to win their way under their conditions.

 

This organization (and I'm not saying they should) has always felt they were "smarter" then the fans, agents, the media when it comes to general concepts like how to build a winner and what that takes to accomplish.

 

I don't think it's a question of 'getting it' or 'understanding things' I think it's more along the lines of 'we're going to do it our way' (for better or for worse.

 

Mark

 

you are correct in this , you reasoning on how the sox can do it.

 

i have always thought, as you said, they can build the team that will win it all and with minimum expense so the owners can max the profit.

 

it is all about the economics of the business.

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 26, 2015 -> 06:39 PM)
With this season seemingly over, I've been mostly interested in trying to figure out how the Sox will be moving forward as an organization. While this season has been largely a disappointment to myself and other Sox fans, I can't help but think a few tweaks this offseason can have the White Sox seriously contending for the playoffs next season. In order to support that argument, I decided to take a look at our second half numbers:

 

Adam Eaton .308/.408/.462/.870 in 169 AB

Jose Abreu .293/.373/.571/.944 in 166 AB

Carlos Sanchez .304/.340/.463/.803 in 144 AB

Geovany Soto .325/.438/.700/1.138 in 48 AB

Trayce Thompson .522/.560/.957/1.517 in 25 AB

Alexei Ramirez .275/.311/.472/.783 in 151 AB

Melky Cabrera .291/.331/.483/.814 in 164 AB

Tyler Saladino .247/.283/.340/.623 in 162 AB

JB Shuck .281/.361/.438/.799 in 37 AB

Avisail Garcia .261/.323/.394/.717 in 155 AB

Tyler Flowers .205/.263/.273/.536 in 97 AB

Adam LaRoche .191/.218/.313/.531 in 119 AB

 

Some observations from the numbers:

-Some players (Eaton, Soto, Sanchez, Thompson) currently have unsustainable BABIPs, so those numbers should go down some, but it's interesting to note the surge in offense from both Eaton and Sanchez in the 2nd half. Eaton is drawing twice as many walks as he did in the first half of the season.

-Eaton's defensive score has gotten significantly better in the second half (he went from a -6.1 to a -2.9). Still not great for a premium defensive position, but it's good to see the improvement.

-Tyler Flowers offensive numbers are down across the board in the 2nd half, most noticeably his SLG% is below .300. To compare, Geo Soto has been worth 1.2 wins more than Flowers over the second half alone.

 

While the sample size may still be small, you can start to gather that we may be seeing some players solidify their positions for next year. I think Sanchez's second half has really cemented his likelihood of being the opening day starter at second next year while Flowers abysmal second half has shown that he is nothing more than a back up at this point. I am fine keeping him as a back up and personal catcher for Sale, but his defense and framing just doesnt make up for the negative value of his bat. Will they choose to put the position off another year and have Geo come back? Wouldn't be the worst idea, but I dont see Geo taking anything other than a starter role next season. Another big question is what the Sox will be doing with Alexei. While his second half numbers are much more in line with his usual type of production, Alexei has made far too many mental mistakes this season and just doesnt seem as engaged as he previously has. With that said, I think moving Saladino over to SS as place holder for Anderson seems to make the most sense for next season. That leaves the Sox with a gaping hole at third and while Saladino has played elite defense over there so far, his bat really doesnt justify keeping him there. As someone on the page has already pointed out, his numbers dont look nearly as bad when compared to the mlb avg of SS in comparison to the mlb avg 3B. Last but not least, I really think Avi needs to go. Trayce may not be the answer, but the White Sox really need to find that out over the next month. Avi still has not proven to be anything other than a below replacement level player since he came into the league. The "potential" may still be there for some folks, but it's really hard to justify keeping him out there when he is so obviously a weak link on this team. His defense and base running are absolutely awful in conjunction with his hitting. We are stuck with LaRoche, so hopefully Hahn is smart enough to find a cheapish bat to platoon with him next season in the DH role.

Great thread, but it all boils down to wins vs. losses and this team still isn't winning worth a damn. It's not going to win next season with the current manager and staff in place UNLESS it fills several holes while keeping the pitching intact for the most part. Good luck with that.

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Some good names to take a look at in free agency:

 

Scott Kazmir - Will be more expensive because of solid year, but he's 32, wont get a QO, and has shown he can pitch in the AL

Mike Napoli - Down year, but good BB%, hits lefties well, no QO, and has history of hitting in AL...could be a good platoon option for LaRoche if he comes cheaper

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QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Aug 26, 2015 -> 11:55 AM)
I appreciate the time and effort put into the start of the thread.

 

To me though it boils down to basically one thing and one thing only regardless of who the Sox keep, trade, sign, draft.

 

GETTING OFF TO A GOOD START.

 

The Sox haven't had a winning month of April since 2009.

 

That means that by May 1st they are usually three, or four or more games behind the leaders.

 

On paper that's not a big deal not with 130 games to go.

 

However, with this organization it seems that once pressure starts to be applied mentally, the players don't respond well.

Four games behind to this bunch IS a big deal in my opinion.

 

This team was woefully unprepared to start the season.

 

They were brutal the last 10 days of spring training. They were flat opening day, they were flat again for the home opener. How can that be?

 

Unless Robin and his staff (since I don't think anyone is leaving) changes their ways I don't think it will much matter what the Sox do in the off season again.

 

Ozzie was the same way, thinking spring training was a joke and the results played themselves out for him as expected to his last few years.

 

Just my opinion.

 

Mark

 

That's why I don't like getting layers from losing organizations. Their season is over by mid August and the only thing they can work on is a better free agent contract.

 

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