TFT

[Balta1701]

Considering the state of the team, I don't see why that is unwise. Worst case scenario he sucks, best case scenario he's good.

 

As opposed to:

-Finish outside top ten

- Sign expensive Free Agent

- Lose first round draft pick

- Watch expensive free agent suddenly become worst offensive baseball player in history

 

Seems like the fans clamoring him to smart are a lot more insightful then the nerds going "BUT GUYS BUT GUYS THE NUMBERS SAY"

Because the White Sox insist that the 4 point strategy you outlined will work if we just try it enough and it must be better than "rebuilding".

[beautox]

Nice day at the plate for thompson today 2/4 with a BB and K. for the year 8.6%BB and 17.2K%. If robin plays him he should get another 53-66 PA over the course of the next 22 games.

 

 

[Feeky Magee]

One thing people sleep on because of low batting averages was that Trayce was an above average hitter for EVERY league he played in bar rookie ball in his debut season and 20 PA in his first go at AAA.

 

 

(wRC+, far right, 100 is average)

[southsider2k5]

Nice .475 BABIP.

[maggsmaggs]

Nice .475 BABIP.

He's obviously not going to keep this up offensively, but he has shown exactly what he needs to: power, patience and good defense. Once the league figures him out, his Ks will probably increase. That coupled with a regression in his BABIP, his batting average will definitely come down. But Trayce has made the roster for next year for sure.

 

Now the problem is where does he fit. Is he a starting OF for you? Or your fourth outfielder? If the Sox want to figure this out, he better play every day. But of course, he won't.

[BlackSox13]

Trayce is batting 5th and playing RF. Hopefully we see more of him the rest of the season.

[Dick Allen]

One thing people sleep on because of low batting averages was that Trayce was an above average hitter for EVERY league he played in bar rookie ball in his debut season and 20 PA in his first go at AAA.

 

 

(wRC+, far right, 100 is average)

If that is a sign of future success, explain to us the hate for the younger Avi Garcia.

[ron883]

If that is a sign of future success, explain to us the hate for the younger Avi Garcia.

I don't think that is very hard to figure out.

[Feeky Magee]

If that is a sign of future success, explain to us the hate for the younger Avi Garcia.

a) There's probably not a huge difference in what you should expect from them offensively in the majors, but Trayce can be valuable with a 90-100 wRC+, whereas Avi cannot, due to his horrendous defence and baserunning.

b) Avi's BB:K rates were very poor in the minors and his success was often dependent on extremely high BABIPs. Trayce always ran a nice BB%, his problem was striking out too much, he has shown signs of improving on this weakness.

c) Avi has had over 1000 PA at the MLB level and has been almost the exact same player throughout them.

[beautox]

One thing people sleep on because of low batting averages was that Trayce was an above average hitter for EVERY league he played in bar rookie ball in his debut season and 20 PA in his first go at AAA.

 

 

(wRC+, far right, 100 is average)

I also think that its not unheard of a "tools" player making good on said tools even with poor to mediocre results in the minors. Two great recent examples of this would be Zach Cozart and Brandon Crawford, now to be fair to Trayce he has more polish than both of them. His BABIP isn't going to remain sky high but if he can maintain a .300(league averageish) to .330 on the high side because of his speed an athleticism in addition to maintaining and growing his power and previous .ISO levels and his BB/K profile its entirely possible he makes good on his tools and could become a well above average regular something in the 3+WAR area, his floor is a very good 4th outfielder and thats nothing to be ashamed about either, but with the sox stuck in their current position they should be providing him 200-400 consistent regular PAs to figure out what they have on their hands. If Trayce is making good on his tools they've got a CF/RF and could pursue someone in FA like Heyward or trade like Puig and have a nice young core in the OF from left to right Eaton, Thompson, Heyward/Puig.

Edited September 14, 2015 by beautox

[Dick Allen]

a) There's probably not a huge difference in what you should expect from them offensively in the majors, but Trayce can be valuable with a 90-100 wRC+, whereas Avi cannot, due to his horrendous defence and baserunning.

b) Avi's BB:K rates were very poor in the minors and his success was often dependent on extremely high BABIPs. Trayce always ran a nice BB%, his problem was striking out too much, he has shown signs of improving on this weakness.

c) Avi has had over 1000 PA at the MLB level and has been almost the exact same player throughout them.

Avi's walk rate this year was higher than Trace's in AAA.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Avi's walk rate this year was higher than Trace's in AAA.

 

 

His walk rate was low because they wanted him to cut down on the strikeouts. It is what it is. If you want him to walk more, he's going to strikeout more because he's taking more pitches.

[Eminor3rd]

Avi's walk rate this year was higher than Trace's in AAA.

 

And it's still bad.

[Eminor3rd]

One thing people sleep on because of low batting averages was that Trayce was an above average hitter for EVERY league he played in bar rookie ball in his debut season and 20 PA in his first go at AAA.

 

 

(wRC+, far right, 100 is average)

 

If Trayce really CAN strikeout only 17% of the time in the majors, I have no doubt he'll actually be a decent player.

 

But that would be a miracle. I can't think of any reason to expect that to happen.

[Eminor3rd]

If that is a sign of future success, explain to us the hate for the younger Avi Garcia.

 

In short, because Trayce hasn't failed in the Majors for three years yet.

[bmags]

a) There's probably not a huge difference in what you should expect from them offensively in the majors, but Trayce can be valuable with a 90-100 wRC+, whereas Avi cannot, due to his horrendous defence and baserunning.

 

This was all that needed to be said.

[Feeky Magee]

Avi's walk rate this year was higher than Trace's in AAA.

Trayce also has a long, long history of walking a lot, whilst Avi has a long, long history of not walking.

 

What do you think of their respective defences?

[Dick Allen]

Trayce also has a long, long history of walking a lot, whilst Avi has a long, long history of not walking.

 

What do you think of their respective defences?

So did Tyler Flowers. Once you get to higher levels, it's a new game. Trace has been great, but his defense has been shaky. Several curious routes, a huge error, and also seems to be thinking about that error at present. Avi is a bad defender without a doubt, but also leads the league in assists, and at least 2 home run saving catches.

 

If you want to say Avi is horrible without a chance to be any good, saying Thompson is a guy who is going to be good is a long reach.

 

Fangraphs isn't the way to identify prospects.

[Feeky Magee]

So did Tyler Flowers. Once you get to higher levels, it's a new game. Trace has been great, but his defense has been shaky. Several curious routes, a huge error, and also seems to be thinking about that error at present. Avi is a bad defender without a doubt, but also leads the league in assists, and at least 2 home run saving catches.

 

If you want to say Avi is horrible without a chance to be any good, saying Thompson is a guy who is going to be good is a long reach.

 

Fangraphs isn't the way to identify prospects.

Tyler Flowers is one player. Generally, there's a strong correlation between high-minor walk rates and major walk rates:

 

 

And I'm not even saying Trayce is going to be good, I still need to see a lot more for him to be a starter, I'm still in the "probable good fourth outfielder" camp, all I was saying is that some people talk about Trayce like he hasn't really produced in the minors because all they're looking at is batting average.

 

Assists don't mean that much when you are as terrible as Avi is. He is a huge liability in the field. That's where you start and end with his defence. He is also a really bad baserunner, ranking 141 of 153 players this year in baserunning runs.

[Dick Allen]

Tyler Flowers is one player. Generally, there's a strong correlation between high-minor walk rates and major walk rates:

 

 

And I'm not even saying Trayce is going to be good, I still need to see a lot more for him to be a starter, I'm still in the "probable good fourth outfielder" camp, all I was saying is that some people talk about Trayce like he hasn't really produced in the minors because all they're looking at is batting average.

 

Assists don't mean that much when you are as terrible as Avi is. He is a huge liability in the field. That's where you start and end with his defence. He is also a really bad baserunner, ranking 141 of 153 players this year in baserunning runs.

Assists mean outs, and it's not like he's Juan Pierre and everyone is running on him. He is a bad fielder, there is no question, but his assists and home run saves have made up for some of that weakness.

 

Avi is also playing his first full season in the major leagues, despite his ABs which have been flung around. I just think if you can't get off the Avi Garcia is awful and always will be, you should probably lay low on Trace Thompson for the time being.

[Balta1701]

Avi is also playing his first full season in the major leagues, despite his ABs which have been flung around. I just think if you can't get off the Avi Garcia is awful and always will be, you should probably lay low on Trace Thompson for the time being.

However, if your requirement for competing next year says "we need one of these guys to be all star quality", you probably should rethink your plans for competing next year.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Tyler Flowers is one player. Generally, there's a strong correlation between high-minor walk rates and major walk rates:

 

 

And I'm not even saying Trayce is going to be good, I still need to see a lot more for him to be a starter, I'm still in the "probable good fourth outfielder" camp, all I was saying is that some people talk about Trayce like he hasn't really produced in the minors because all they're looking at is batting average.

 

Assists don't mean that much when you are as terrible as Avi is. He is a huge liability in the field. That's where you start and end with his defence. He is also a really bad baserunner, ranking 141 of 153 players this year in baserunning runs.

 

Who's point are you trying to prove with that chart? TT had just a 5.5% walk rate in AAA (which is the only level the chart shows) and the chart shows it is likely he would be the same in MLB. That's not a good walk rate. And how can you claim that they will probably be about the same offensively when Avi put up a .933 OPS at AAA from age 22 to 23 and Thompson put up just a .744 OPS at age 24? And guess what? Their walk rates were nearly identical. It would take a hell of a big difference in defense and base running to make up that difference in OPS. Let's give Trayce some time before we anoint him the savior. Avi doesn't yet have 2 seasons worth of at bats in the Majors with a major injury during that time. He still has a ways to go before he becomes a productive major league player but he's still just barely 24 years old (younger than TT). I swear some people on this board know absolutely nothing about baseball except what a fangraphs page can show them.

Edited September 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa

[Dick Allen]

However, if your requirement for competing next year says "we need one of these guys to be all star quality", you probably should rethink your plans for competing next year.

You are already in for the Sox will suck the rest of the decade, so you really shouldn't worry about 2016.

[Feeky Magee]

Who's point are you trying to prove with that chart? TT had just a 5.5% walk rate in AAA (which is the only level the chart shows) and the chart shows it is likely he would be the same in MLB. That's not a good walk rate. And how can you claim that they will probably be about the same offensively when Avi put up a .933 OPS at AAA from age 22 to 23 and Thompson put up just a .744 OPS at age 24? And guess what? There walk rates were nearly identical. It would take a hell of a big difference in defense and base running to make up that difference in OPS. Let's give Trayce some time before we anoint him the savior. Avi doesn't yet have 2 seasons worth of at bats in the Majors with a major injury during that time. He still has a ways to go before he becomes a productive major league player but he's still just barely 24 years old (younger than TT). I swear some people on this board no absolutely nothing about baseball except what a fangraphs page can show them.

5.5% was a big surprise given his career tendencies, and I'd expect that that would have climbed given longer at the level. Sometimes you can be doing stuff that usually leads to good walk percentages (i.e. not swinging at pitches outside the zone) but it doesn't show up in your walk percentages in the short-term.

 

Avi put up that OPS in a mere 200 PA, and he did it with a skillset that typically doesn't translate well to MLB level (take his 2014 line of 1.8% walks, 30% strikeouts and a .485 BABIP.)

 

And again, I'm not anointing Trayce a saviour. I've already said I still have him at 4th outfielder level. Being a more productive major league player than Avi is not exactly a high bar.

 

Surely given your thoughts about Avi, he should at least be showing signs of improvement year-on-year? He's been virtually an identical player no matter what chunk of MLB PA you take. His stats at the same age are actually worse than Dayan Viciedo.

[lasttriptotulsa]

5.5% was a big surprise given his career tendencies, and I'd expect that that would have climbed given longer at the level. Sometimes you can be doing stuff that usually leads to good walk percentages (i.e. not swinging at pitches outside the zone) but it doesn't show up in your walk percentages in the short-term.

 

Avi put up that OPS in a mere 200 PA, and he did it with a skillset that typically doesn't translate well to MLB level (take his 2014 line of 1.8% walks, 30% strikeouts and a .485 BABIP.)

 

And again, I'm not anointing Trayce a saviour. I've already said I still have him at 4th outfielder level. Being a more productive major league player than Avi is not exactly a high bar.

 

Surely given your thoughts about Avi, he should at least be showing signs of improvement year-on-year? He's been virtually an identical player no matter what chunk of MLB PA you take. His stats at the same age are actually worse than Dayan Viciedo.

 

Isolating a 13 game stretch when he was out on a rehab assignment doesn't really make for a very compelling argument.